Maybe the Emmy smackdown to win best comedy series is already over since no show seems to have emerged strong enough to dethrone "30 Rock," which won for the last two years.

However, repeat winners aren't too common, although there is that notable exception called "Frasier" (five years in a row! — 1994 to 1998). Before "Frasier," the last yuk-yuk-yuk program to prevail three years in a row was more than a quarter century ago ("Taxi," 1979-1981) and it's hard to make comparisons  between then and now since the Emmy voting process has changed so radically through time.

But one thing is significant. Don't write off, for example, past champ "The Office" (2006) just because it didn't repeat in 2007 and 2008. It's not uncommon for shows to skip a year or two after winning the first time, then return triumphant. (Consider the victories by "Everybody Loves Raymond" in 2003 and 2005)

Now let's get back to the ever-changing voting process, which has just been revamped again this year. Over the last several Emmy derbies, nominees were chosen after judging panels screened sample episodes submitted by the 10 shows that reaped the most votes from the 14,000 TV academy members who checked off a popular ballot. (No proof of viewing was required during that first voting round — then the judging panels took over.)

This year, the cheapskates running the TV academy scrapped the judging panels in order to save money. That's outrageous and unfair because it zaps the hopes of underdogs, but it makes the job of award prognosticators like us much easier. One additional — and positive — change is that the list of nominees will be expanded to six or seven from the usual five.

So, to predict this year's nominees, start with the series that made the Top 10 last year and consider how they fared this year. Did they keep up their quality and TV Nielsens? If so, they'll probably be back. That's what happens when you use a popular ballot to determine award outcomes.

There aren't many newbies from the recent TV season to challenge past Emmy titans, but Showtime's "United States of Tara" looks strong. Entertainment Weekly gives "Better Off Ted" a B+, noting that it "is certainly the most original sitcom to come along in a while." "Worst Week" got a great review from Variety: "There's something refreshing about seeing an utterly screwball comedy mounted on an episodic scale." "Parks and Recreation," starring Amy Poehler and created by "The Office's" Greg Daniels and Mike Schur, premieres on NBC on April 9, but its pilot got poor early test results from audiences. Still, many hit TV series endured the same rough start-up. If "Parks" rallies, beware: This race (plus best comedy actress) could turn into a fierce cat fight between those "Saturday Night Live" divas Poehler and Tina Fey ("30 Rock")! Meow!

* = Top 10 Semi-Finalist in 2008
** = Nominee in 2008

BEST COMEDY SERIES
(Front-runners)
"The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)
"Californication" (Showtime)
"Desperate Housewives" (ABC)
"Entourage" (HBO) **
"Family Guy" (Fox) *
"How I Met Your Mother" (CBS)
"The Office" (NBC) **
"Samantha Who?" (ABC)
"Scrubs" (ABC)
"30 Rock" (NBC) ** (Winner in 2008 and 2007)
"Two and a Half Men" (CBS) **
"Ugly Betty" (ABC) *
"United States of Tara" (Showtime)
"Weeds" (Showtime) *