The jolly green ogre "Shrek: The Musical" pulled off a huge surprise today by tying "Billy Elliot" for the most nominations (10) from the Outer Critics Circle. "Shrek" even took over the slot in the race for best musical expected to go to "9 to 5."

Does this foreshadow what might happen at the Tonys, which unveil nominations on May 7? "9 to 5" has been considered a serious rival to "Billy Elliot."

Notable snubs: Jane Fonda ("33 Variations"), Tovah Feldshuh ("Irena's Vow") and James Gandolfini and Jeff Daniels ("God of Carnage") aren't nominated for acting awards, but their shows are up for best new Broadway play. The three boys who portray the lead role in "Billy Elliot" weren't nommed either, but they'll receive a special achievement award. At the Tonys, they'll be bunched together and considered as one nominee for best actor in a musical.

Two top Tony contenders — the musical "Next to Normal" and Horton Foote's play "Dividing the Estate" — aren't cited by the circle because they competed as Off-Broadway shows during last year's eligibility period.

Comparison between the Outer Critics Circle Awards and the Tonys is difficult because the former kudos literally encompass a larger circle, rewarding off-Broadway and off-off-Broadway shows in addition to the biggies on the Great White Way. But the Outer Critics' Circle Awards often provide hints of contenders' popularity. Last year the two awards agreed, for example, on "August: Osage County" (best play), Paulo Szot in "South Pacific" (best actor, musical), Patti LuPone in "Gypsy" (best actress, musical), Deanna Dunagan in "August: Osage County" (best actress, play) and other top prizes.