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Three-way tie among top pundits predicting the Tony Awards

June 8, 2009 |  3:02 pm

Gold Derby gathered together the Tony Awards predictions of a baker's dozen theater journalists. Tops at forecasting the winners of the 27 competitive races were Paul Sheehan (contributor, The Envelope.com), Matt Windman (AMNewYork), and myself – we all scored 23 correct. Had Paul only come in off that limb with his single-minded backing of Jane Fonda ("33 Variations") for best actress in a play over eventual winner Marcia Gay Harden ("God of Carnage"), he would have been out in front alone.

Tonys Predictions Scores-1

Right behind we three with 22 correct were Melissa Bernardo (contributor, Entertainment Weekly), Robert Diamond (BroadwayWorld.com), Susan Haskins (Theater Talk), and Patrick Pacheco (contributor, L.A. Times). Melissa was one of only four pundits to predict the score of "Next to Normal" edging out that of "Billy Elliot."

Coming in at 21 right were Brian Lipton (TheaterMania.com), David Sheward (Back Stage), Linda Winer (Newsday), and Wayman Wong (New York Daily News). And scoring 19 correct were Martin Denton (NYTheatre.com) and Leonard Jacobs (ClydeFitchReport.com).

There was a general consensus among the pundits about most of the eventual winners. Indeed, we all went with the eventual champs in seven categories including best musical ("Billy Elliot"),  best play ("God of Carnage") and three of the acting races — lead musical actress Alice Ripley ("Next to Normal"), lead play actor Geoffrey Rush ("Exit the King"), and featured play actress Angela Lansbury ("Blithe Spirit"). And most of us forecast the winners of the other five acting awards.

However, we all missed sound design of a play which went to "Equus." Most of us thought that show would win lighting design with only two of us correctly predicting "Joe Turner's Come and Gone." And only four of us foresaw that Matthew Warchus would win for directing "God of Carnage" rather than "The Norman Conquests."

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Actually it's a four-way tie. Adam Feldman and I predicted 23 out of 27. Go here: http://newyork.timeout.com/articles/theater/75029/tony-awards-preview



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