Our pundits duel over Emmy drama divas
Our Emmy prophets — forums moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria, who also contribute to AwardsHeaven.net — agree on five of the six women who will vie for lead actress in a drama series. They both think returning champ Glenn Close ("Damages") will face off against 2007 winner Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters"), three-time also ran Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") and newcomers January Jones ("Mad Men") and Anna Paquin ("True Blood").
For the sixth slot, Rob – who went four for five right last year – opts for Oscar winner Holly Hunter returning to the race a second time for "Saving Grace." Boomer – who got all five nominees right last year – believes "Big Love" star Jeanne Tripplehorn will break through and land her first nod.
BEST DRAMA SERIES ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" – Rob, Boomer
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" – Rob, Boomer
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" – Rob
January Jones, "Mad Men" – Rob, Boomer
Anna Paquin, "True Blood" – Rob, Boomer
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" – Rob, Boomer
Jeanne Tripplehorn, "Big Love" – Boomer
ROB'S COMMENTARY: It is refreshing to see that a lead actress category can have so many worthy contenders, because the only sure thing here (apart from last year’s returning champ Glenn Close) is that there will be quite a few disappointed contenders and fans in this category. I think Hunter, Field and Sedgwick are in again, and January Jones, although nowhere near as certain as many might expect, will likely make it into the group for a variety of reasons that include "Mad Men" being the current Emmy darling (I am not as sure about Elisabeth Moss, who is at least the most likely candidate out of the possible contenders).
I am going out on a limb in saying that there will be a “Piano” reunion in this category with Anna Paquin dispelling the Emmy bias against genre shows and making the cut in this category for "True Blood," which is the hottest show right now.
The contenders that could easily usurp half of these actresses include the outstanding Jeanne Tripplehorn ("Big Love"), who can thank Ginnifer Goodwin and Chloe Sevigny for moving over to the supporting race so as not to dilute support from "Big Love" fans, Angela Bassett ("ER"), Jill Scott ("No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency"), Regina King ("Southland") and Mary McDonnell ("Battlestar Galactica").
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: As last year's winner, I don't think Glenn Close is any danger of losing her slot this time. Sally Field and Kyra Sedgwick should also return from last year's lineup. After that, I do think there will be a good bit of turnover from last year's nominees: Holly Hunter (an Oscar winner in an almost unwatchable show) and Mariska Hargitay (finally losing her slot after many years) do not enjoy another nomination.
Instead, I think January Jones rides an even bigger "Mad Men" wave as the standout performance from a great second season. Also, Anna Paquin is one of the key reasons for the success of "True Blood" and should get nominated. In somewhat of a surprise, I also think Jeanne Tripplehorn gains a nod for "Big Love" because of consistently good work on the show but also because her co-stars have moved into the supporting category.
Other ladies with a real shot: Elisabeth Moss of "Mad Men" (going to be hard for her and Jones both to make it), Angela Bassett of "E.R." (should have tried for supporting), Mary McDonnell of "Battlestar Galactica" (just can't overcome that sci-fi bias) and Jill Scott of "No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency" (competition just too tough).
Photos: AMC, HBO
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MARISKA! im not denying close is a geat actress but if anyone saw Undercover the episode mariska was nominaed for last year. HOWDID SHE NOT WIN!it was so real, emotional, terrifying, and so many other things it was just beyond amazing
Posted by: Holly | July 13, 2009 at 02:52 PM
Anna Paquin is the worst thing of TB... can't believe that she won the Golden Globe.
Please Emmy Members, don´t forget Mary McDonnell.
Posted by: Teresa | July 13, 2009 at 07:11 AM
I'm tired of actresses being rewarded for playing an emotion rather than a full three dimensional character.
Examples:
January Jones Quiet Desperation
Glenn Close: Anger
Sally Field: Confusion
Mariska Hargitay: Valor
Kyra Sedgwick: southern ( lol, not really an emotion but she plays it like it was, lol)
there are a lot of three dimensional characters on tv that are real and people can relate to.
Examples
Patricia Arquette: Even with psychic powers and a deadly job, she is still more relatable than January Jones.
Ellen Pompeo: A simple average woman playing a simple average woman. u would think that with all this average her performance would be that too, but Ellen truly gives a powerhouse performance as Meredith Grey by being subtle. i know, very paradoxical and complex, just like a human should be.
Anna Paquin: Way better than Kyra Sedgwick at being Southern, and more charming. also, is complex without being unbelievable.
Posted by: SLEIEMR | July 12, 2009 at 12:12 PM
I think Aura McDonnell - Anna Paquin &
Jill Scott deserve to push into the lead actress group. Time for some change-it can't always be the same names. in Supporting I hope Anika Nina Rose us nominated she almost stole that show with her character
Posted by: rob | July 12, 2009 at 07:41 AM
Mariska deserves a nomination once again. The writing for SVU wasn't as strong this year, I'll give you that. But she is an incredible actress who deserves the nom, especially for the episode "PTSD" this season. I'm still blown away she didn't win last year.
Posted by: Rowan | July 11, 2009 at 04:33 PM
The problem with all the women from "Mad Men" ,this year, is that even if any of them get nominated, they won't win. They don't have strong enough episodes to submit to compete with any of the other actresses who have big showy scenes.
If Jill Scott gets nominated, she actually has a chance to win because she has a couple of episodes that show off her range and include big climactic dramatic moments. If enough people saw "The #1 Ladies Detective Agency" I think she'll get in the top 6.
Posted by: Lance | July 11, 2009 at 02:53 PM
Paquin? There have been lots of Golden Globe winners who haven't been nominated and this will be another one. She's in a vampire show (which is a genre that doesn't bring in a lot of awards) and even if you think she is good in it (which I don't) she doesn't have a lot of big powerful dramatic scenes. I don't think she'll make the cut.
Posted by: Lance | July 11, 2009 at 02:41 PM
I'm with Butch. You are also underestimating MH's talent - people have been leaving her out of prediction lists since her win, basically, and last year she actually gave the best performance of her entire run on SVU in "Undercover". This year I also think she deserves a nomination over some of the "fresh faces" that critics are desperate to see nominated because they're more worried about the hot/fresh factor than performance.
Posted by: KJ | July 11, 2009 at 01:11 PM
I hope you guys are correct about Jones. She really deserves a nomination!
Posted by: Rani | July 11, 2009 at 08:15 AM
I wish they would recognize Katey Sagal for Sons of Anarchy.
Posted by: Nemo Niente | July 10, 2009 at 04:25 PM
any speculation on the supporting races for drama series? comedy series? are those categories going to have 6 nominees each as well?
Posted by: srh1son | July 10, 2009 at 04:09 PM
I'm hoping Elizabeth Moss makes it in over January Jones. I think Mad Men is overrated in general, but the acclaim for Jones is ridiculous. Betty Draper is a cardboard stereotype, and Jones adds no nuance whatsoever. At least Moss adds color to her role. In fact, Peggy may be the only character on that show who has any depth.
I suspect Jeanne Tripplehorn will be Big Love's lone nomination in the major categories. Right now, it looks like HBO's drama nominee will be True Blood, with In Treatment as a potential spoiler. Chloe Sevigny might sneak into Supporting Actress, but I doubt it; the category's loaded.
Mary McDonnell and Jill Scott deserve to be nominated, but it's not going to happen. They're not getting in over the likes of Glenn Close, Sally Field, or Anna Paquin.
Posted by: C C | July 10, 2009 at 03:55 PM
Ellen pompeo all the way!
Posted by: hello | July 10, 2009 at 02:46 PM
Paquin? Over McDonnell? SERIOUSLY??
Posted by: Paul | July 10, 2009 at 01:23 PM
As much as I would like to see January Jones getting in (she gave by far the best leading performance by any actress in a drama series!) there's no way she will get a nomination. If any lady from "Mad Men" s going to get into TOP6 it's Elisabeth Moss. It'll be undeserved but she's far more known within industry than Jones. I think we're gonna see the same old faces we see every year (Close, Field, Sedgwick, Hunter, Hargitay) and Paquin (because she's an Oscar winner and her show is on HBO). This is going to be one hell of a boring race.
Posted by: Paul | July 10, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Boomer, you are really underestimating how popular Mariska Hargitay Is among Emmy voters/Hollywood.
Posted by: Butch | July 10, 2009 at 11:34 AM