My fearless, peerless, 100% accurate Emmy predictions
Remember, when Emmy nominations are announced on Thursday morning at 5:30 a.m. PST/ 8:30 a.m. EST, there will be six slots in the following categories: best comedy and drama series plus lead and supporting actors and actresses in comedy and drama. All other contests will have the usual five nominations.
My boldest predix: "Family Guy" will become the second cartoon in Emmy history to be nominated for best comedy series. ("The Flintstones" lost to "The Jack Benny Program" in 1961.)
No new shows will be nominated for best comedy or drama, but many will reap nominations in the lead acting races: "True Blood" (Anna Paquin), "The Mentalist" (Simon Baker), "Parks and Recreation" (Amy Poehler) and "United States of Tara" (Toni Collette). In its second TV season, "The Big Bang Theory" will blast through with a bid for lead actor Jim Parsons. We know there's a good chance of that since Parsons and three-time past nominee Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy") will emcee the news conference announcing the contenders on Thursday at the TV academy headquarters in North Hollywood.
* = Top 10 Semi-Finalist in 2008
** = Nominee in 2008
BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Damages" **
"Dexter" **
"House M.D." **
"Lost" **
"Mad Men" ** (WINNER, 2008)
"24"
BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Entourage" **
"Family Guy" *
"The Office" **
"30 Rock" ** (WINNER, 2008, 2007)
"Two and a Half Men" **
"Weeds" *
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Simon Baker, "The Mentalist"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ** (WINNER, 2008)
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" **
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" **
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." **
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" ** (WINNER, 2008)
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" **
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" **
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" **
Anna Paquin, "True Blood"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" **
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" ** (WINNER, 2008)
Steve Carell, "The Office" **
David Duchovny, "Californication" *
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" **
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" **
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" **
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" **
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ** (WINNER, 2008)
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" **
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
BEST MINISERIES
"Generation Kill"
"House of Saddam"
"Little Dorrit"
BEST TV MOVIE
"Grey Gardens"
"Into the Storm"
"Prayers for Bobby"
"Taking Chance"
"24: Redemption"
BEST ACTOR IN A MOVIE/MINI
Kevin Bacon, "Taking Chance"
Kenneth Branagh, "Wallander: One Step Behind"
Brendan Gleeson, "Into the Storm"
Kevin Kline, "Cyrano de Bergerac"
Ian McKellen, "King Lear"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOVIE/MINI
Drew Barrymore, "Grey Gardens"
Jessica Lange, "Grey Gardens"
Shirley MacLaine, "Coco Chanel"
Anna Paquin, "Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler"
Sigourney Weaver, "Prayers for Bobby"
BEST VARIETY SERIES
"The Colbert Report" **
"The Daily Show" (WINNER, 2004-2008)
"Late Show With David Letterman" **
"Real Time With Bill Maher" **
"Saturday Night Live" **
BEST HOST OF A REALITY TV PROGRAM
"Dancing With the Stars," Tom Bergeron **
"Project Runway," Heidi Klum **
"Deal or No Deal," Howie Mandel **
"Survivor," Jeff Probst ** (WINNER, 2008)
"American Idol," Ryan Seacrest **
BEST REALITY PROGRAM
"Antiques Roadshow" **
"Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" **
"Intervention" **
"Jon & Kate Plus 8"
"Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List" (WINNER 2007, 2008)
BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" (WINNER, 2003-2008)
"American Idol" **
"Dancing With the Stars" **
"Project Runway" **
"Top Chef" **
Photos: HBO, CBS, Fox
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No Skarsgard for Generation Kill?
How is that possible?
Posted by: cgp | July 16, 2009 at 04:47 AM
I think a shocker will be Jane Krakowski... she deserves a nomination and people won't be expecting it
Posted by: Patrickj88 | July 16, 2009 at 04:31 AM
Simon Baker has to be nominated and win!!!...Always the same boring sctors have to be nominated. Simon's the best actor out there!!!!
Posted by: Gabi | July 15, 2009 at 06:43 AM
ALWAYS THE SAME PEOPLE AND SHOW...I think your prediction are the most accurate but I would have liked to see so many other people and shows in them!
Posted by: AnAwardForEmily | July 14, 2009 at 02:50 PM
Prediction: Neil Patrick Harris will win all four supporting actor statuettes. It will be legen- wait for it- dary.
Posted by: srh1son | July 14, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Tom, if you're right on most of these (and you may be) the Emmys will be such a major snooze that not even Neil Patrick Harris will be able to juice them up.
Honestly, no January Jones? No Michael Chiklis? No Gabriel Byrne? No Denis Leary?? 24?? Tired, tired, tired. Enough already of this sameness.
Posted by: TLS | July 14, 2009 at 10:10 AM
Wow, no Mad Men women, that's bold of you...we'll see. I'm still torn on Anna Paquin.
Posted by: JS | July 14, 2009 at 05:05 AM
What are your thoughts on the guest actor/actress race, Tom? I am really pulling for dark horse Sterling Beaumon for his spectacular run as young Ben on Lost.
Posted by: Hans | July 14, 2009 at 01:12 AM
You're right, Scott - I will probably regret not including Gabriel Byrne in the list of drama actors, but I don't know who to boot out to make room.
As for the supporting races, you're right, Dan, I don't have the guts to stick out my tender neck and forecast those. I'm a wimp.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | July 13, 2009 at 08:51 PM
so will you have the guts to make predictions for the supporting categories?
Posted by: Dan | July 13, 2009 at 08:06 PM
I'm still betting that at least one HBO show gets into the drama series race, taking the place of either House or Damages. And I think both Gabriel Byrne and Jeanne Tripplehorn will snag noms for drama actor and actress.
The most intriguing question is what they're going to do with 24 . I could see 24 receive the most nominations of any series, or be nearly shut out. If they do get a slew of unexpected noms, I'll definitely understand why.
Posted by: C C | July 13, 2009 at 07:39 PM
I totally agree, Tom seems to have the noms down pat. But they are so bland and so many deserving actors aren't going to make the cut, Mary McDonnell, Ian McShane, Kyle Chandler, Connie Britton.
Posted by: Jeff | July 13, 2009 at 07:37 PM
Sadly, these predictions are very accurate. I'm going to barf so much during the Thursday's morning because that's what is going to look like. The obly mistake you've made is Simon Baker. He's not going to make a cut. Gabriel Byrne is taking his place because he has recently won a Globe.
Posted by: Scott | July 13, 2009 at 05:38 PM