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Emmy predix: Toni Collette is in, but Amy Poehler or Christina Applegate?

July 10, 2009 | 11:30 am

Our Emmy seers and forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" Beachum, who also contribute to AwardsHeaven.net, agree on five of the six women who'll be nominated for best comedy actress next Thursday.

United states of tara They both predict that four of last year's five nominees will return to the race this year: 2008 winner Tina Fey ("30 Rock"), 2007 champ America Ferrara ("Ugly Betty"), 2006 victor Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine") and two-time nominee Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds"). And both agree that Toni Collette will get a nod for her freshman series "United States of Tara."

For the sixth slot, Rob thinks Christina Applegate will get a second nom for the canceled "Samantha Who?" while Boomer is opting for newcomer Amy Poehler of midseason replacement "Parks and Recreation." Last year, the boys went five for five at predicting the nominees.

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS:
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" – Rob
Toni Collette, "United States of Tara" – Boomer, Rob
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" – Boomer, Rob
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" – Boomer, Rob
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" – Boomer, Rob
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" – Boomer, Rob
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" – Boomer

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Fey and Collette are the only two certainties I think, with Parker likely to make a return appearance and Louis-Dreyfus hopefully making the cut as well. Applegate is also a likely possibility, regardless of the fate of her show this year. Ferrera is probably most at risk of being excluded this year, with "Ugly Betty" losing a lot of buzz last season.

Waiting in the wings to take her place, or to be the surprise spoiler in this category are any of the "Desperate Housewives'" leading ladies, Sarah Silverman for her eponymous Comedy Central laughfest, and Amy Poehler for her midseason entry "Parks and Recreation."

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: There is no doubt in my mind that this a 7-lady race for 6 slots. Tina Fey is certainly a lock as the returning champion. After that, I don't think anybody is 100% safe, but Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Mary-Louise Parker should find themselves returning to the competition. Toni Collette gave an acclaimed performance as a woman with multiple personalities, so Emmy voters should eat that up.

The final 2 slots are very hard to figure out. America Ferrera won an Emmy for this role in its first season, but the show has taken a big tumble with viewers and voters. She can probably ride that wave one final time. Christina Applegate would probably be safe if her show had not been repeatedly moved around and then canned completely.

I think Amy Poehler is very popular with everybody these days through her days on SNL, and voters will be willing to overlook the early creative problems with her new show and give her a nomination anyway. The ladies from "Desperate Housewives" along with Anna Friel and Sarah Silverman have tiny chances, but any one of them would be a shocker with an actual nomination.

Photo: Showtime

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Comments

Richard - Check out the actual Emmy ballot in the forums. Pace & Friel got their paperwork into the Academy at the last minute and are now on the ballot.

This would be my 6:

1. Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
2. Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
3. America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
4. Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
5. Eva Longoria-Parker, "Desperate Housewives"
6. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine"

But I'm pretty sure Mary-Louise Parker "Weeds" will take it over Longoria-Parker.

Anna Friel and Lee Pace did not submit their names for Emmy consideration so neither of them will be nominated for their work on Pushing Daisies.

The same case like with Drama Lead Actress. We're going to see the same old faces again. Fey, Louis-Dreyfuss, Parker, Applegate, Ferrera with an addition of Toni Collette (because she's very liked in an industry and she's an Oscar nominee). There are plenty of more worthy actresses in this category i.e. Billie Piper (without a doubt the best leading actress in a comedy series this season!), Eva Longoria Parker, Tichina Arnold or JoAnna Garcia, but we all know that Emmy voters don't care for unknows, total hotties or people from the CW.



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