Whenever I make award pontifications, I think it's important to sell them with P.T. Barnum-like brio, braggadocio and guts. Assure readers that they're "100% perfect predictions" — "can't be wrong!" Make the bombastic experience fun and thus invite readers to roar right back at you: "An Oscar for Miley Cyrus? You're an idiot!"
Oh, isn't that why we're all here at Gold Derby, dear friends?
Now I see that Lane Brown is hyping "Vulture's Infallible, Late-August Oscar Predictions!" Oh, ecstasy! Brown admits, "We've seen almost none of the probable contenders yet, we have absolutely no idea," Brown adds, but still sallies forth to make brazen forecasts "based on films' trailers and pedigree, things we read on Twitter, and our own infallible intuition."
Hooray! That's our invitation to attack. Now let's go at it. I freely confess that I haven't seen 95% of these films either and I don't follow Twitter as closely as Vulture, but, hey, Oscarology is bloodsport and we're all in it for the bath.
Yes, of course, Clint Eastwood's biopic starring Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela, "Invictus," will automatically make the best picture list and could even win ("Gandhi," that bland hymn to India's champion of nonviolence, beat the beans out of "E.T."), but "Where the Wild Things Are"? Oh, Vulture. The air is thin up on your mountaintop perch. Have you seen the trailer? It looks like Benny Hill meets Teletubbies.
You can probably strike Charlize Theron off your short list for best actress. "The Burning Plain" was supposed to be a hot Oscar ticket last year, but apparently it fizzles now. Variety calls the directorial debut of celebrated scripter Guillermo Arriaga ("Amores Perros," "21 Grams," "Babel") a "head-scratcher" with "few emotional hooks" performed by an "OK-to-good cast."
There are lots of other little things I could peck at. "The Road" got detoured off last year's derby track too. Does that portend problems this year — or were they fixed in the editing room? Terrence Malick ("Tree of Life") deflated Oscar expectations in the recent past ("The New World," 2005).
I love the fact that Vulture put "In the Loop" on its best pic list. Yes, we can dream! (Even if it's delusional — snobbish Oscar voters are notorious for having no sense of humor. Suddenly, there's optimism this year, though, because the best picture list expands to 10 entries.)
All in all, Vulture actually did quite a good rundown. Yes, and 100% perfectly infallible, I'm sure! So I recommend it, with gusto, to all fellow kudos nuts.
Beware, though: humble reminder to us all. At this point on the calendar in past years we had no idea "Slumdog Millionaire" would be a factor or "Million Dollar Baby" would even be released within its derby year.
Oh, and one last thing. Believe it or not, Miley Cyrus came thisclose to getting an Oscar nomination last year. Not for acting, you idiot! But as the co-writer of "I Thought I Lost You," the theme song to "Bolt" that was nominated for best song at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
So, OK, I was only 96% correct. Sue me.