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Boomer's and Rob's Emmy predix: The last noodlings + full lists

September 18, 2009 | 11:17 am

Up till now, I've been spooning out the Emmy predictions of our forum moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net). But time is running out. Emmys are upon us. I've gotta dole out all of the final forecasts in one big posting. Here is it below.

Also, read Boomer's and Rob's in-depth analysis of these contests: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best drama seriesbest lead drama actorlead drama actresslead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini.

Also watch their video smackdowns covering these Emmy races too: best drama actor, lead drama actress, best comedy series and lead comedy actress.

Aaron paul breaking bad

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.  Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad" ("Peekaboo")
2.  Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe")
3.  Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("Dead is Dead")
4.  William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Made in China/Last Call")
5.  William Hurt, "Damages" ("Hey! Mr. Pibb")
6.  John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Six Month Leave")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Unlike my friend Rob, I think this category is very easy to predict. Aaron Paul gives far and away the best performance in this category. His character is able to navigate through just about every emotion possible, but it is the interaction with the little boy that seals the deal and gives him a redeemable emotional core.

Christian Clemenson certainly has some nice material to chew over, but his character is over-the-top and hammy as usual (though Emmy voters often love those traits). I am one of the biggest "Lost" fans around, but the show is so incredibly complicated these days that it will be difficult for voters to even know what Michael Emerson is doing in his episode. He might stand a better chance next season when everything starts to unravel and his character's motivations are cleared up.

William Shatner has the advantage of a series finale, but his edited episode sure does have him just sitting and watching the other actors too much. William Hurt was a good addition to this season of "Damages," but I am afraid this episode does him no justice in range, sympathy or impact.

Poor John Slattery submitted his absolute best episode of the season, but they just didn't give him enough to warrant an Emmy win.


BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad" ("Peekaboo")
2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("Dead is Dead")
3. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Made in China/Last Call")
4. William Hurt, "Damages" ("Hey, Mr Pibb!")
5. Christian Clemenson, "Boston Legal" ("Roe")
6. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Six Months Leave")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: This category is almost as difficult to predict as the drama lead actor race – a few worthy episode submissions, and at least two absolutely dynamite episodes that could easily win in any given year.

First up, I think that John Slattery is probably going to sit this one out. His performance is strong as usual, but I think it is understated and lacks the necessary impact to take this category. A win by him would be based more so on the overall respect for him and the show.

Christian Clemenson plays this character beautifully – he plays up the humor, but you also feel for the guy with his almost debilitating facial ticks, outbursts and insecurities. But I can't help but think that voters may have tired somewhat of "Boston Legal," and any true die-hard fans of the show will have William Shatner to vote for as well, possibly diluting the vote somewhat. Great episode submission, but it didn't grab me like some of the others did.

I thought William Hurt in "Damages" was OK. For much of the season, it appeared as if he was in a bit of a coma – very, very understated work from the Oscar winner. This episode allows him some range and even a little impact, and some voters might be tempted to vote for him because he is well respected and for their love of the show.

William Shatner appears to be out of the running as well. He has by far the longest screen time of all these contenders, and he has a few key scenes in which Denny Crane is likeable and quirky. By the end of the marathon-like double episode finale, it occurred to me that sentiment might be a factor in a Shatner upset – it's a great final scene for a show much-loved by Emmy voters over the years.

But the reality appears to be that this is a two-horse race to the finish line. Michael Emerson, the industry vet, versus Aaron Paul, the relative newcomer having his breakthrough year. For the last couple of years, Michael Emerson has been poised for an Emmy win for his portrayal of the uber-villain Ben Linus on "Lost." Probably close to the win each time, he now has another excellent shot with an episode in which he is in almost every single scene. Emerson owns this episode, has great range and impact, some sympathy, even likeability despite the awful things his character does.

And, still, something tells me that Aaron Paul is going to win the Emmy. He doesn't have as much screen time as Emerson does, but his scenes, especially with the little boy that has been sadly neglected by his drug-addicted parents, are engaging and tense while at the same time heart warming, showcasing Jesse in a much more sympathetic light. Coupled with a near-perfect episode submission is a sense that people in Hollywood have really taken notice of Aaron Paul this year, and might want to award him for what is widely perceived as one of the true breakout performers of the past season. I get the same sense of overall support for this guy that Zeljko Ivanek had last year in this very same category.

But, that being said, this is not going to be an easy win for Aaron Paul, as I suspect it is neck and neck with Michael Emerson, and who knows, maybe even Shatner or Hurt could surprise.


BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.  Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Trust Me")
2.  Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 6")
3.  Hope Davis, "In Treatment" ("Mia: Week 6")
4.  Cherry Jones, "24" ("Day 7: 7 a.m.-8 a.m.")
5.  Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Stairway to Heaven")
6.  Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Elevator Love Letter")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: To be honest, I made up my mind a few days ago that Dianne Wiest would repeat her Emmy victory from last year. It is a fine performance where she gets to sound off against Gabriel Byrne once again (starts out soft and gets more explosive).  When it came to typing this summary, I just kept coming back to the fact that Rose Byrne gives the best performance in this category. She is also in a drama series nominee (indicating wide-spread support) and is able to more than hold her own against an acting legend in Glenn Close. Those reasons have me switching my prediction at the last minute to Byrne.

Hope Davis is certainly a possibility, but I really find her character to be too whiney for my taste.  I thoroughly enjoyed Cherry Jones as the president this past season on "24," and this season finale gives her some fiery moments as well as an agonizing choice.  As a respected stage veteran and Tony winner, I think she is more of threat than others are predicting. Somehow, the two "Grey's Anatomy" ladies have never latched onto an actual Emmy (even though I have predicted each before to win).  I think their time has passed.


BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 6")
2. Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Trust Me")
3. Hope Davis, "In Treatment" ("Mia: Week 6")
4. Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Stairway to Heaven")
5. Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Elevator Love Letter")
6. Cherry Jones, "24" ("7.00 a.m.-8.00 a.m.")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: A strong lineup of women in this category makes it difficult to say with certainty who appears to be the front-runner. Voters love Dianne Wiest, and her episode this year is just as good if not better than her winning episode from last year, so it is probably wise to put her up front in this group.

However, Rose Byrne really almost owns the season finale of "Damages," and her interplay with Glenn Close is fantastic. Perhaps voters may want to award her here after the inexplicable snub from last year (when she wasn't even nominated) and to recognize that this show they obviously love is not just about Glenn Close. Having such an impressive episode submission helps Rose Byrne, so it is certainly possible that she might be able to overtake Dianne Wiest.

Looking at the submissions objectively and without regard to name recognition, Hope Davis' submission is brilliant, and probably provides more emotion and impact than Dianne Wiest's. If Davis was the only nominee from "In Treatment," her chances would probably be greater, but given that she is sharing the bill with double Oscar and Emmy winner Wiest, I think she will probably sit this one out. It also may not help her that this character is not really very likeable.

The two women from "Grey's Anatomy," perennial nominees in this category, have submitted well, but I am not sure that either of them has enough to come out on top for the win. Wilson has a great key scene where she makes some impact with viewers, but I still finished both of these episodes and quickly moved on to the next without feeling that I had just watched a winning submission. There aren't really any other factors in each of Wilson's or Oh's favor, perhaps except that neither has won yet, and they are obviously liked by voters enough to keep appearing in this category.

Unfortunately, I think Cherry Jones will also sit this one out. Although I am not really a fan of the show, I can understand why she would be nominated here, as she improved "24" every time she made an appearance. A very well-regarded actress, if Jones wins, however unlikely at this point, it might be for that reason alone.

Therefore, I think that it is probably the safe bet that Dianne Wiest will win again, with Rose Byrne a possible upset for "Damages," the only show in this category nominated for drama series.


BEST DRAMA SERIES DIRECTING: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Phil Abraham, "Mad Men" ("The Jet Set")
2.  Rod Holcomb, "ER" ("And in the End")
3.  Todd Kessler, "Damages" ("Trust Me")
4.  Michael Rymer, "Battlestar Galactica" ("Daybreak, Part 2")
5.  Bill D'Elia, "Boston Legal" ("Made in China/Last Call")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: One of the most visually stunning episodes of this past season featured the California glamour of "The Jet Set."  I would be surprised if that one is bypassed for another. Bringing back the original "E.R." pilot director to helm the finale was a nice touch and could possibly be rewarded.


BEST DRAMA SERIES DIRECTING: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Phil Abraham, "Mad Men" ("The Jet Set")
2. Michael Rymer, "Battlestar Galactica" ("Daybreak, Part 2")
3. Todd Kessler, "Damages" ("Trust Me")
4. Rod Holcomb, "ER" ("And in the End")
5. Bill D'Elia, "Boston Legal" ("Made in China/Last Call")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: This category is an interesting one – there is only one "Mad Men" contender, which is probably the favorite, but there are three series finales also in the mix. Could Michael Rymer's stunning "Battlestar" finale actually take this prize? I'm crossing my fingers.


BEST DRAMA SERIES WRITING: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Kater Gordon & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("Meditations in an Emergency")
2.  Robin Veith & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("A Night to Remember")
3.  Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof, "Lost" ("The Incident")
4.  Andre Jacquemetton, Maria Jacquemetton & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("Six Month Leave")
5.  Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("The Jet Set")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  Many feel that the season finale of "Mad Men" was one of its best episodes ever.  It had so many wonderful touches, especially noteworthy in the screenplay.  One thing is certain -- Matthew Weiner has an 80% chance of winning in an Emmy in this category!


BEST DRAMA SERIES WRITING: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Kate Gordon & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("Meditations in an Emergency")
2. Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("The Jet Set")
3. Damon Lindelof & Carlton Cuse, "Lost" ("The Incident")
4. Robin Veith & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("A Night to Remember")
5. Andre Jacuemetton, Maria Jacquemetton & Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" ("Six Moth Leave")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: It's hard to say which of the "Mad Men" episodes will win this one, so I am going for the often-heralded season finale.


BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  "The Amazing Race"
2.  "Top Chef"
3.  "American Idol"
4.  "Project Runway"
5.  "Dancing with the Stars"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  I am no fool. Until it actually loses, there is no way I am predicting against "The Amazing Race."
 

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM: ROB'S PREDIX
1. "The Amazing Race"
2. "American Idol"
3. "Project Runway"
4. "Top Chef"
5. "Dancing with the Stars"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Will "Amazing Race" add another statue to its already-packed mantle? Probably. Will TV's biggest show ever win this category? If not now, then never – it's possible.


BEST REALITY HOST: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Phil Keoghan, "The Amazing Race"
2.  Tom Bergeron, "Dancing with the Stars"
3.  Jeff Probst, "Survivor"
4.  Padma Lakshmi & Tom Colicchio, "Top Chef"
5.  Heidi Klum, "Project Runway"
6.  Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  I was very surprised to see Phil Keoghan snubbed last year.  He should easily win, but don't count out Tom Bergeron (who won a surprise daytime Emmy a few years ago) or last year's winner Jeff Probst.
 

BEST REALITY HOST: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Phil Keoghan, "The Amazing Race"
2. Heidi Klum, "Project Runway"
3. Jeff Probst, "Survivor"
4. Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol"
5. Padma Lakshmi & Tom Colicchio, "Top Chef"
6. Tom Bergeron, "Dancing with the Stars"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Now that "Amazing Race" has squeaked into this category as well, I expect Keoghan to easily take this one out.


BEST VARIETY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  "Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
2.  "Saturday Night Live"
3.  "Colbert Report"
4.  "Late Show with David Letterman"
5.  "Real Time with Bill Maher"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: With such a strong political year, "SNL" could finally be the show to take down Jon Stewart (but I'll believe it when I see it).


BEST VARIETY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
1. "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart"
2. "Saturday Night Live"
3. "The Colbert Report"
4. "Late Night with David Letterman"
5. "Real Time with Bill Maher"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Should we even bother looking at this category? I'd like to see "SNL" win because it certainly had a banner year, and was even more relevant than Jon Stewart!


ROB LICURIA'S FULL LIST OF PREDIX
Drama – "Mad Men"
Comedy – "30 Rock"
TV Movie – "Grey Gardens"
Mini-Series – "Generation Kill"
Reality-Competition Program – "Amazing Race"
Variety Series – "Daily Show"
Reality Host – Phil Keoghan
Lead Actor Drama – Gabriel Byrne
Lead Actress Drama – Glenn Close
Supporting Actor Drama – Aaron Paul
Supporting Actress Drama – Dianne Wiest
Guest Actor Drama – Jimmy Smits
Guest Actress Drama – Ellen Burstyn
Writing Drama – "Mad Men," "Meditations in an Emergency"
Directing Drama – "Mad Men," "The Jet Set"
Lead Actor Comedy – Alec Baldwin
Lead Actress Comedy – Tina Fey
Supporting Actor Comedy – Neil Patrick Harris
Supporting Actress Comedy – Kristin Chenoweth
Guest Actor Comedy – Justin Timberlake
Guest Actress Comedy – Tina Fey
Writing Comedy – "30 Rock," "Kidney Now!"
Directing Comedy – "The Office," "Stress Relief"
Lead Actor TVM/M–S – Ian McKellen
Lead Actress TVM/M–S – Sigourney Weaver
Supporting Actor TVM/M–S – Tom Courtenay
Supporting Actress TVM/M–S – Shohreh Aghdashloo

CHRIS 'BOOMER' BEACHUM'S FULL LIST OF PREDIX
Drama Series – "Mad Men"
Comedy Series – "30 Rock"
TV Movie – "Grey Gardens"
Mini–Series – "Little Dorrit"
Reality–Competition Program – "Amazing Race"
Variety Series – "Daily Show"
Reality Host – Keoghan
Lead Actor Drama – Cranston
Lead Actress Drama – Close
Supporting Actor Drama – Paul
Supporting Actress Drama – Byrne
Guest Actor Drama – Borgnine
Guest Actress Drama – Blethyn
Lead Actor Comedy – Carell
Lead Actress Comedy – Fey
Supporting Actor Comedy – Wilson
Supporting Actress Comedy – Poehler
Guest Actor Comedy – Martin
Guest Actress Comedy – Fey
Lead Actor TVM/M–S – McKellen
Lead Actress TVM/M–S – Weaver
Supporting Actor TVM/M–S – Courtenay
Supporting Actress TVM/M–S – Aghdashloo

Photo: Aaron Paul in "Breaking Bad" /AMC

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