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Gutsy Envelope gurus predict Oscar's best picture nominees

October 27, 2009 |  7:46 am

Avatar lovely bones

I asked members of The Envelope's editorial team to predict the Oscar nominees for best picture and here's who rose to the challenge — our bloggers Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season) and Paul Gaita (The Circuit) and editor of our print edition Elena Howe.

I let Pete get away with a bit of waffling. One of his predictions is "a Meryl Streep comedy directed by a woman — 'It's Complicated' or 'Julie & Julia.' " He adds these comments, "Yes, 'Avatar,' 'Serious Man' booster, kill me now. 'Last Station' and 'An Education' remain possibilities too, but are more likely in acting and screenplay, although certainly in the mix for best picture. Keep in mind this is still a very fluid situation, still very much up in the air and the average academy member has yet to see precious few, in some cases as many as nine of these top ten contenders, so it's complicated."

There's no front-runner to win yet. At this point, "Precious" has the most passionate support, but it may be too gritty, grim and indie to take the top prize. Since there are only 10 spots for nominees, I regret having to leave off "Up," "An Education" and "The Last Station," but I think they're also strong rivals.

Check out these additional predictions from our other Oscar experts.

BEST PICTURE Gaita Hammond Howe O'Neil
"Avatar"

X

 

 

X

"Bright Star"    

X

 
"An Education"

X

 

X

 
"Hurt Locker"

X

X

X

X

"Inglourious Basterds"  

X

 

X

"Invictus"

X

X

X

X

"Lovely Bones"

X

X

X

X

"It's Complicated" or "Julie & Julia"  

X

   
"Nine"  

X

X

X

"Precious"

X

X

X

X

"The Road"

X

 

X

X

"A Serious Man"      

X

"Up"

X

X

X

 
"Up in the Air"

X

X

X

X

"Young Victoria"  

X

   
"Where the Wild Things Are"

X

     

Photos: 20th Century Fox, Paramount, Lionsgate

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The comments to this entry are closed.

Comments

sheesh, you sure like some cornball stuff.....here are my best and worst lists:

BEST BEST PICTURES

FARGO
BABE
THE FUGITIVE
AWAKENINGS
THE ACCIDENTAL TOURIST
ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN
CHINATOWN
BONNIE AND CLYDE
LOST IN TRANSLATION
OLIVER!

WORST BEST PICTURES

BABEL
GANGS OF NEW YORK
ELIZABETH
E.T. THE EXTRA TERRESTRIAL
BARRY LYNDON
AIRPORT
MARTY

What about "District 9" people? It's the smartperson's sci-fi blockbuster.

Not a big surprise. 10 worthy candidates can't be found, and Mickeba's not the least bit surprised. They want to increase the viewing audience so the increase the nominees to 10: So "masterpieces" like Dark Knight can be nominated! Dark Knight is not a best picture worthy film. Very popular, yes, but it's a special effects driven film, with one great performance, hardly what one considers best picture stuff. It would serve the Academy right to have some piece of garbage like "Transformers" or "Star Trek", or maybe "Saw 6" somehow get into the "elite 10" and just for a gag, the members of the academy who appreciate great film and what it means, rebel and vote for the trash. Really dumb it down. People don't watch the show because it's too long and tedious and just like the show the year before. But when the slate of films is good, people watch the show. That's all it takes, good films. Not 10 nominees for the sake of 10 nominees.

mickeba

Did anyone see SIN NOMBRE or SUGAR... easily better than most of the above

What a backfire! The decision to include 10 nominees for Best Picture is looking sillier by the day! Why didn't they allow for ten nominees but not make it a requirement. For example, if six got a certain number of votes, fine, but to have to automatically fill ten spots-ouch!

UP will be in it. The Wall-E snub works in it's favor, and the time is pretty much at hand to recognize Pixar for their body of work (which is something the Oscars tend to do: see Kate Winslet, Scorcese). UP won't win Best Picture, but the impending nomination itself is it's reward. Oh, and I don't think Avatar will make the cut.

The system was deemed broken the instant "The Dark Knight" didn't get a Best Picture nomination (I think it should have won). Having 10 nominees allows the Academy to look less out of touch, attract more audience interest in their show, and still give most of their love to 3 or 4 movies few people in the country will ever want to see.

I have to laugh at the comment "there are only 10 spots for nominees" for Best Picture...I thought upping it to 10 was supposed to give more films more chances..and now it's "only". I think 10 is a ridiculous number and films which should never be nominated will be just to fill out the 10 slots. Why change it? It wasn't broken!

I like how Tom is not predicting 'Up'.

That's an egregious misuse of the word "Gutsy" in your headline... There is nothing courageous about the business of predicting which way the AMPAS wind will blow.


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