Happy Halloween, Derbyites! Today is the perfect time to probe this cliffhanger: Who'll "win" the next Razzies? Below, predix from posters in our forums. Read more here.

Criss808 — "Worst actress will will be battle between Beyonce ('Obsessed') and Megan Fox 'Transformers 2' & 'Jennifer's Body')." WATCH!

Kams — "Worst performance by an actor in a leading role: Nicolas Cage, 'Knowing' and Matthew McConaughey, 'Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.'"

Just one of the four roles pictured below earned an acting bid for its star. Which one? Here's the answer.

Only one of these performances received a nomination for best actor at the Oscars. See the answer here!

 • Hitting the web this week is the new trailer for "The Road." Though the post-apocalyptic parable saw its Oscar hopes take a detour following a pan by Variety, a shot at a top 10 slot now seems firmly back on track. Ryan Adams deftly sums up his reaction to the new spot: "Remarkably faithful to the novel, down to the most desolate detail. What impresses me most about the production design is the endless ashen sensation of terrible majesty. It’s as if the whole world has become the ruins of the Acropolis, the brittle fossils of a lost culture. The look in Viggo’s eyes secures his nomination, I feel confident. It’s going to take a lot of wry grins, curmudgeonly scowls, and other baked ham recipes for any other actor to match the depths this role fathoms." AWARDS DAILY

 • In the first of a two-part look at the expanded best picture race, Glenn Whipp sees the glass as half full. However, he cautions that "while one, maybe two, commercial movies might make their way to a nomination, boosters of Oscar's expanded field believe that the main beneficiaries of the new math will be foreign-language films, documentaries and small-scale dramas. That prospect is welcome news in a year that has been rife with bad tidings for indie labels." He notes: "The expansion's supporters maintain that the increased opportunities will shine a spotlight on deserving films that often are shunted off to their own 'smaller' categories. 'For animated movies, foreign-language films and documentaries, this is a chance to sit at the grown-ups' table,' says one Academy member. 'You're going to see a lot of fine films get more recognition. I can't see how that's a bad thing.'" VARIETY

 • If the glass is only half full, it means that it is also half empty too. Glenn Whipp observes: "As audiences and Academy members have seen most of the Oscar contenders, a vague sense of discomfort hangs over Hollywood as some naysayers wonder how they might possibly fill out a ballot that now includes 10 slots. 'This is not 1939,' says one Academy member, who like most people interviewed for this story, asked not to be identified. 'I'm just not seeing stuff that's blowing me away, and it's October. When the year began, I was hoping for masterpieces. Now I'd just take a good mid-range drama, and I'm not even getting that.'" VARIETY

• Jeff Wells says such talk by academy members about trouble finding films to fill the best pic race is a lot of hot air. As he writes: "They want the kind of high-pedigree, finely-fused emotional bath movie that the major studios used to try to make but began abandoning in the '90s, and have now pretty much given up on. They're investing in Guy Ritchie movies for December release these days, and Guy Ritchie ain't Sidney Lumet or Mike Nichols or David Lean. Well, the save-us-from-disappointment crowd had better get with it. They'd better wake up and smell the cappucino. The reality is that the Oscars have pretty much become the Spirit Awards in tuxedoes and designer gowns. That's the world we've all created and are living in. I for one am down with that, but some people are beyond reach." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

 • Lane Brown, one of the Vulture crew, updates the blog's Oscars futures and rules out "Avatar" -- which is on most everyone else's best pic picks -- because "Its new story-focused trailer is a little better than the silly looking previous one at least but this thing still doesn't look like awards material, does it? (No.)" Lane likes the chances of the unscreened "Invictus" -- also a top 10 choice for most -- and comments, "Is it any good? Nobody knows! But its new trailer confirms it's exactly the sort of movie everyone assumes gets nominated for Best Picture." However, while Lane thinks the Oscar hopes of "Invictus" star Matt Damon are up -- "his South African accent better than we expected" -- his co-star Morgan Freeman is down but not out -- "We're sure he'll be nominated, but, from the trailer, doesn't it sort of look like he's just playing Morgan Freeman?" NEW YORK

• Mary J. Blige confesses that she vomited -- metaphorically speaking -- on a recording of "I Can See in Color" -- the inevitable Oscar best-song nominee from "Precious." She said the film's director Lee Daniels "made me pull every single thing from my guts. He said, 'I know you have it in you.' I finally got to the point where the very next day I just went in and threw up on the record." Blige, who had her own troubled childhood, could particularly relate to the movie's depiction of physical and verbal abuse. After she watched the movie, Blige said she "just sat there for two minutes, stuck, with nothing to say." HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

Photo credits: The Weinstein Co.; 20th Century Fox

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Strange, but true: Ingrid Bergman wasn't nominated for best actress in "Casablanca," which won best picture of 1943. It's one of many shocking snubs in Oscar history. See who else Golden Boy slapped in the past — check out this forum thread where our posters are sighing, fuming and scratching their noggins over other snubs like Audrey Hepburn ("My Fair Lady"), Richard Gere ("Chicago") and one that, personally speaking, really ticks me off: Jim Carrey ("Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"). When you get to the first forums page, remember to click the page numbers at top and bottom to continue reading.

Photo: Warner Bros.

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A spy tells us that Saorise Ronan is in virtually every scene of "The Lovely Bones" as the central character of this compelling story of a murdered girl, her grieving family, and her killer.

And we hear that Ronan steals the picture from everyone including Oscar champ Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener") and nominee Mark Wahlberg ("The Departed") as her parents, Oscar winner Susan Sarandon ("Dead Man Walking") as her grandmother and two-time Emmy victor Stanley Tucci ("Winchell," "Monk") as the murdering neighbor. All of them will compete in the supporting slots, leaving Ronan the only "Bones" star in a lofty lead Oscar race.

While her first name may be pronounced "sir-sha" to rhyme with "inertia," this 15-year-old actress is quickly climbing the Hollywood ladder. For her performance in "Atonement" two years ago, Ronan became the seventh youngest supporting actress Oscar nominee  -- she lost that race to Tilda Swinton for "Michael Clayton.

Were she to prevail for "The Lovely Bones," Ronan would become the youngest best actress champ -- the current recordholder is Marlee Matlin, who was 21 when she won for "Children of a Lesser God" in 1986. Indeed Ronan would only be the second teenager to even land a nomination in this category. The first was Keisha Castle-Hughes, who was just 13 when she earned a lead actress bid in 2003 for her performance in "Whale Rider" -- she lost to Charlize Theron for "Monster."

As he did with the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, Peter Jackson is director, co-producer and co-writer of "The Lovely Bones." Jackson won three Oscars in 2003 for performing those same roles on the third "Ring" cycle -- "The Return of the King." Working again with his winning co-writers Fran Walsh and Phlippa Boyens, Jackson has adapted Alice Sebold's bestseller. The only concern could be that Jackson has directed just one performer -- Ian McKellen -- to an Oscar nomination. Sir Ian landed a supporting actor bid for his role as Gandalf in the first installment of "LOTR" but lost that 2001 race to Jim Broadbent for "Iris."

Photo credit: DreamWorks SKG

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Now that Hugh Jackman has officially passed on repeating as Oscarcast host, who should the new producing team of Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman recruit for the toughest job in Hollywood? 

There are the usual names in the mix like A-listers George Clooney, Tom Hanks and Will Smith. And there are the hipper choices like Steve Carell and Tina Fey. But with Jackman hitting a home run last year with his singing and dancing don't discount someone like Queen Latifah -- who Shankman directed in "Hairspray" -- being tapped to host. And if Oscar chiefs plan to put heavy emphasis on musical entertainment, why not consider "Precious" star Mariah Carey, eh?

We wanted to add "Precious" costar Mo'Nique to the choices in this poll, but — let's face it — the academy is a nonprofit organization that probably can't afford her appearance fee.

Don't see your pick for Oscar emcee among the names below? Then post it in the comments section and perhaps he or she will make it into the next round of voting.

UPDATE 10/30 2 p.m. PT: Oops, as some of you note snarkily in the comments section below, we should've included Neil Patrick Harris as a choice. You're right, of course, considering he did such a stellar job holding forth at the Emmys, Tonys and TV Land Awards. At this late point, we can't edit the poll below, so we promise to do a follow-up poll that includes Harris as a choice . . .  later. We'll have him face off against the candidates who scored highest here -- plus Golden Globes host Ricky Gervais. Please come back and vote again. Here is the follow-up poll - CLICK HERE to vote.

Photo credit: AMPAS

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 • Pete Hammond reports that "London River" will get a mid-November one-week qualifying run in L.A. as part of a campaign to secure a lead actress nod for two-time Oscar bridesmaid Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies," "Little Voice"). Blethyn plays a mother searching for her daughter who goes missing after a London bus bombing. The pic -- directed by 2006 best foreign film Oscar nominee Rachid Bouchareb ("Days of Glory") -- was Algeria's entry for this year's foreign film race but had too much English-language dialogue to qualify. Still without American distribution, screeners of "London River" will be sent to the academy acting branch. NOTES ON A SEASON

• Susan Wloszczyna drills down into the academy decision to double the number of best picture nominees and strikes paydirt in this must-read analysis. Her nominees for favorite gripe about this change are: First place is redefined; box office will trump quality; honorary honorees are unseen; and sheer statue fatigue. USA TODAY

• In a compelling companion piece, Susan suggests that an expanded best picture race may mean more mainstream genres could squeeze into the lineup. Among the "less-than-usual suspects" are: documentary ("Capitalism: A Love Story"); animated feature ("Up"); blockbuster ("Avatar"); foreign language ("The White Ribbon"); action thriller ("Inglourious Basterds"); and adult comedy ("It's Complicated"). USA TODAY

• Steve Pond focuses his laser analysis on possible Oscar bids by past champs Helen Mirren ("The Queen") and George Clooney ("Syriana") as well as the never-nominated Christopher Plummer. In the Michael Hoffman-helmed "The Last Station," Steve says Plummer is "quietly commanding and always fascinating" as Leo Tolstoy while Dame Helen is "a force of nature" as his wife. And in "The Men Who Stare at Goats," Grant Heslov’s "fast, entertaining and very funny semi-true farce about oddball experiments within the U.S. military, Clooney delightfully plays against type; he might think he’s as cool and slick as the typical Clooney character, but he’s seriously deluded." THE ODDS

• Last week, Richard Rushfield penned a must-read guide to fixing the Oscarcast. Written before the producing team of Bill Mechanic and Adam Shankman was announced, Richard offers up a host of hosts ranging from the tried and true Billy Crystal to current teen queen Vanessa Hudgins. GAWKER

• Greg Ellwood says the supporting actress Oscar race is between "Precious" mean momma Mo'Nique and "Up in the Air" ingenue Anna Kendrick. For Greg, "It wouldn't be a careless exaggeration to say that if one or neither of these two actresses weren't nominated it will be one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. The true drama this season surrounds who their competition will be in the remaining three slots." HITFIX

• Anne Thompson raves about the Kristin Scott Thomas double feature at the London filmfest "as John Lennon’s Aunt Mimi in 'Nowhere Boy' and as a sexy adulterer in the French hit 'Partir' ('Leaving'). 'Partir' (which showed in Toronto) stars Scott Thomas in French mode. In 'Nowhere Boy' she’s a prim stiff-upper-lip Brit." THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

• This year's six winners of the $30,000 Nicolls fellowships bestowed by the Oscars will be feted with a dinner on Nov. 12. The half dozen winning scripts were chosen from a record 6,380 entries by a jury chaired by Susannah Grant -- a 1992 fellow and 2000 Oscar nominee ("Erin Brockovich"). A more recent success story from the 113 fellowships awarded since 1985 is James Mottern who directed this year's “Trucker” from his 2003 Nicholl-winning script. AMPAS 

• Brad Brevet has locked in half of his predix for the 10 best picture nominees -- "An Education," "The Hurt Locker," "Invictus," "Precious" and "Up in the Air" -- and admits "those final five spots, however, have been a cause for some prognosticating concern." ROPE OF SILICON

• Scott Feinberg embeds the recent appearance by "Precious" star Gabby Sidibe on "The Ellen DeGeneres Show." As Scott notes, "Appearances like this one are important for Gabby not only because they begin to familiarize the general public with her name (although Ellen introduced her as 'Gabourey,' when lately people seemed to be moving toward calling her the less-tongue-twisting 'Gabby'), but also — and just as importantly — with what kind of a person she is (and is not)." AND THE WINNER IS

• Novelist Nick Hornby -- who could land his first Oscar nod for his sterling adaptation of Lynn Bamber's memoir "An Education" -- gives a rare and revealing interview to Michael Hann. Hornby says this writing job was a gift and he swears off adapting any more of his own works for the screen. THE GUARDIAN

• Melinda Newman has compiled a comprehensive gallery of contenders for album of the year at the upcoming Grammys. Nominations will be announced Dec. 2 with the ceremony airing Jan. 31 on CBS. Among her top choices are "I Am ... Sasha Fierce" by Beyonce, "808s & Heartbreak" from Kanye West, and Green Day's "21st Century Breakdown." At the other end of her list of 11 possibilities are "BLACKsummers'night" by Maxwell and "American Saturday Night" from Brad Paisley. HIT FIX

Photo credits: Arte France; Sony Pictures Classic; Sony Music

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On Thursday, Oscar voters received the second, third and fourth DVD screeners sent to the full academy — all three from Sony Pictures Classics, which thus becomes the first major studio out of the gate: "Coco Before Chanel," "The Damned United" and "Whatever Works." Other SPC screeners ("An Education," "The Last Station," "Broken Embraces," "White Ribbon") will be sent later in derby season, a studio rep promises. "A Prophet" is eligible only in the race for best foreign-language film, which requires theatrical screenings, so DVDs of that will not be shipped.

The only previous DVD sent to all academy members was "Anvil! The Story of Anvil." Some bloggers reported that "The Messenger" was also sent, but that's not true. At least not yet. It was sent to journalists, but a copy won't be shipped to academy members for another week or so.

Economic hard times may severely limit the number of DVDs shipped to voters this year. There's widespread concern that such stinginess may hurt Oscar-caliber work in indie flicks that might have gotten a DVD blitz in more flush financial times.

The three current flicks shipped to voters are being campaigned in most major categories. However, the best shots for "Coco" are lead actress (Audrey Tautou) and screenplay. Michael Sheen hopes to score his first-ever acting bid for "Damned United." He failed to reap recognition for "Frost/Nixon" because he stubbornly refused to drop down from the lead race to supporting. It wasn't his fault that he got snubbed for "The Queen."  "Whatever Works" may earn Woody Allen his 457th screenplay bid (actually, his 15th -- he won for "Hannah and Her Sisters" and best picture champ "Annie Hall"). Since Woody is a lucky charm to performers in the supporting actress race (Penelope Cruz, Mira Sorvino, two-time champ Dianne Wiest), there's hope for Patricia Clarkson and Evan Rachel Wood.

Photos: Sony Pictures Classics

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Oscar champs Jonathan Demme ("The Silence of the Lambs"), Anjelica Huston ("Prizzi's Honor") and Quentin Tarantino ("Pulp Fiction") as well as honorary Oscar winner Kirk Douglas are the first presenters announced for the inaugural Governors Awards on Nov. 14. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences event will fete Thalberg honoree studio exec John Calley and honorary Oscar recipients actress Lauren Bacall, producer Roger Corman and cinematographer Gordon Willis.

Douglas will no doubt salute Bacall, his onetime acting school classmate and co-star ("Young Man With a Horn"). Huston -- daughter of director John Huston, who worked with Bacall and her husband Humphrey Bogart on "Key Largo" -- could also be talking about Bacall's talents. Expect Demme to sing the praises of Corman, who gave him his start as a director with "Caged Heat." And perhaps Tarantino will also salute the pulp filmmaker.

Oscar-winning producer Bruce Cohen ("American Beauty") is organizing the evening in collaboration with Emmy-winning director Don Mischer. As per the initial academy news release, the honorees "will also be acknowledged at the year's Academy Awards ceremony." That wording could mean that a highlight reel of the November night will be shown during the Oscar telecast, as is done now with the scientific and technical award winners. Or it could mean that the honorees are introduced in the audience of the Kodak Theatre.

There have been 37 winners of the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award, which is presented to “creative producers whose bodies of work reflect a consistently high quality of motion picture production.” The first recipient of this award -- named for the MGM producer, who had died shortly before -- was Darryl F. Zanuck in 1937. The most recent honoree was Dino De Laurentiis in 2000.

Honorary Oscars have been awarded since the first ceremony, when Warner Bros. was lauded "for producing 'The Jazz Singer,' the pioneer outstanding talking picture, which has revolutionized the industry," and Charlie Chaplin was told it had been "unanimously decided that your name should be removed from the competitive classes, and that a special first award be conferred upon you for writing, acting, directing and producing 'The Circus.' The collective accomplishments thus displayed place you in a class by yourself." The most recent honoree was this year when Robert F. Boyle was saluted "in recognition of one of cinema's great careers in art direction."

Photo credits: Warner Bros., New World Pictures

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