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Oscars prediction: 'Inglourious Basterds' will win best picture

November 18, 2009 | 10:23 am

As all Oscarologists know, the movie that wins best picture usually wins best director too, and the recipient of that prize is usually the same person who claims the top honor from the Directors Guild of America.

Inglourious basterds


At this point in the derby, we don't have an obvious DGA front-runner. "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" has major Oscar buzz for best picture, but it's unlikely that DGA members will consider it a spectacular directorial achievement. Lee Daniels may be nominated for his impressive dramatic achievement on celluloid, yes, but guild members usually look for more production dazzle.


Given his high Cool Factor and the critical and commercial success ($120 million U.S.; $300 million worldwide) of "Inglourious Basterds," it's likely that Quentin Tarantino will nab a bid on Jan. 7. How can guild members resist voting for the Hollywood hipster — who's never won DGA — when rivals are likely to be refried beans like Clint Eastwood ("Invictus") and Peter Jackson ("The Lovely Bones")? Rob Marshall won DGA for "Chicago" (he lost the Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"), but buzz for "Nine" seems to be quieting a bit. Jason Reitman wasn't nominated by DGA for "Juno," but he might finally prevail with a bid, maybe even a win, if "Up in the Air" gets serious best picture momentum. It will be nominated at the Oscars, but can it win? HmmmKathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") might be nommed at DGA, but women rarely triumph at these ole boys' clubs.


Therefore, by process of elimination, it looks like Tarantino is the likely front-runner, which means "Inglourious Basterds" is probably ahead for the top Oscars too. DGA will have hiked influence over the Oscars this year since there's a major gap — five weeks — between the kudos this year. DGA will be bestowed Jan. 30, the Oscars on March 7. That's all the more time for the DGA victory to impact the Academy Awards, where "Basterds" will probably score at least seven or eight nominations: best picture, director, screenplay, supporting actor (Christoph Waltz), art direction, costumes, cinematography, maybe film editing. Read more about the strong shot "Basterds" has at the Oscars here.

My spies tell me that members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association really, really love "Basterds," so expect it to score lots of major Golden Globe nominations. If many late-2009 releases stumble in the best picture race, as I think they will, "Basterds" could even win best drama picture at the Globes. If that doesn't trigger its Oscar push, then DGA will. Sometimes films get overlooked by other, early kudos and get launched Oscar bound by the directors' guild. A notable example is "Midnight Cowboy."


Photo: Weinstein Co.


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Comments

This post is from November! A lot has happened since then, and it is called "Avatar". I doubt this prediction is valid anymore.

Here comes the 'Basterds'!!!

Inglourious Basterds is the worst picture i have ever seen, no plot, no acting, its like monty python without the jokes, & i'm a Quentin Tarantino fan, the difference is i dont hail every movie a good director does just because of his reputation, unlike the critics with this movie, i find it very hard to believe any intelligent person could watch this crap movie more than once, i saw a dozen leave before i walked out on it, Quentin Tarantino could make a movie about paint drying & the critics would rave about it & it would be up for globes & oscars.
LOL,
globe? LOL,
oscar? LOL
Golden turkey award? yes
Raspberry award? yes

"LOL-is it April Fools day ? He won't win best director . And no way will Bastards win best movie . Never gonna happen. It was ok-not great .Best film so far has been "UP""

Posted by: rob | November 18, 2009 at 05:44 PM


What a stupid post by a stupid individual.

no way. bigelow's got it in the bag.

I'd be rather shocked if "Inglorious Basterds" won Best Picture or Best Director this year. Especially now that there are 10 Best Picture nominees. It might get nominated if the Academy is running out of movies to nominate, but winning?! It's a long shot.

Of course, if there's a vote split and Tarantino's flick wins Tom O'Neil will look like a genius.

- J. Sperling Reich
www.showbizsandbox.com

Not going to happen. No chance.

@Ron: "Nine" isn't being confused with "District 9"; it's being confused with another animated film called simply "9" (the digit instead of being spelled out).

The traditional DGA-Best Director-Best Picture linkage has already been stressed somewhat in the last decade. Switching to 10 Best Picture nominees (but still only 5 for Best Director), and especially preferential voting for Best Picture, may stress it even further--especially if the DGA doesn't like Lee Daniels (or if they like Kathryn Bigelow but the Academy doesn't). Or it may not.

IMO, Rob Marshall has a better chance than you assume. When you win the DGA but not the Oscar, the next DGA win gets you Best Director (and usually but not always Best Picture too); that happened to each of the last four before Marshall to get the DGA but not Best Director:
--Francis Ford Coppola won DGA & Picture (like Marshall) for "The Godfather"; won DGA, Director & Picture for "Godfather II". (Ironically, he lost Director the first time to Bob Fosse, the original director & choreographer of "Chicago" on Broadway who also co-wrote its book.)
--Steven Spielberg won DGA only for "The Color Purple"; won DGA, Director & Picture for "Schindler's List", then DGA & Director again for "Saving Private Ryan"
--Ron Howard won DGA only for "Apollo 13"; won DGA, Director & Picture for "A Beautiful Mind"
--Ang Lee won DGA only for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"; won DGA & Director for "Brokeback Mountain"
Given that record, I say Marshall could win the DGA; if so he gets Best Director too, though "Precious" could still upend "Nine" for Best Picture if Gabby Sidibe & Mo'Nique both win.

But then, there's the other factor: They may say Quentin Tarantino's finally due more than just a writing Oscar. They FINALLY gave Scorsese DGA, Best Director & Best Picture a few years back (even if "The Departed" wasn't exactly his best work); why not Tarantino?

As Arte Johnson would say, this year will be veddy in-ter-est-ing...

LOL-is it April Fools day ? He won't win best director . And no way will Bastards win best movie . Never gonna happen. It was ok-not great .Best film so far has been "UP"

I don't think it's anywhere near his best or best of the year. But if he won it wouldn't bother me. I'd be happy for him. I love Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill 1& 2.

I think a lot of people are underestimating Inglorious Basterds. It's a film that on the surface doesn't appear to be Academy friendly, but the moochy metaphor of "film" killing Nazis is irresistible to nostalgic Hollywood types. Actually, I suspect that IB won't be as offensive to the Oscar voters as some of the other contenders (Precious, An Education).

Inglourious Basterds was the most entertaining film of the year, and the screenplay was incredible. Tarantino doesn't get enough credit for his direction, either.

This is one of those seemingly very logical arguments that leads to a completely illogical conclusion, and here's where you lost me: "Therefore, by process of elimination..."

No. Nobody votes for Best Picture by process of elimination.

D9 should be best picture. Had they spent more on promotion it would have generated far more income. 9 confused itself with D9
This fusion of a rip off of a spaghetti western sound track a rewrite of the dirty dozen and a few others glossed over with with verbosity and gore. Crass.

Tom, you're an entertaining read but you're a complete moron when it comes to prognosticating what will happen at the Oscars. This wacky, out-of-left-field prediction reminds me of when you made wacky, out-of-left-field predictions saying that Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd would win Best Picture. And of course, neither was even nommed.

This new prediction of yours regarding Inglorious Basterds is just as moronic.

I'm usually very, VERY cautious when it comes to the esoteric, old-school Academy Awards. I find it hard-pressed, therefore, to join in this optimism, but I can't help but hope that you're absolutely right about this. Basterds was an incredible film, and I want the Academy to recognize more than the typical stuffy, pretentious films it usually does.

Good catch re date goof. Fixed now. TX

The Oscars are actually March 7, 2010, not March 6.

Balllsy, by God!

May you be right, sir!


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