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Experts predict Christoph Waltz will win Oscar's supporting actor race

December 21, 2009 | 12:15 pm

Inglourious basterds 8

All six Oscar pundits surveyed say the supporting actor Oscar will go to Christoph Waltz from "Inglourious Basterds." Below, the rankings of Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is), Paul Gaita (The Circuit), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Anne Thompson (IndieWire) and me. See experts' predictions of the lead actor race here, lead actress race here and best picture here. Contenders are ranked according to their likelihood of winning.

SUPPORTING ACTOR Feinberg Gaita Hammond O'Neil Pond Thompson
Christoph Waltz, 'Inglourious Basterds'

1

1

1

1

1

1

Stanley Tucci, 'The Lovely Bones'

5

4

4

4

2

2

Christopher Plummer, 'The Last Station'

3

3

2

3

3

 

Woody Harrelson, 'The Messenger'

2


3

2

5

4

Matt Damon, 'Invictus'

4

2

5

 

 

 

Alfred Molina, 'An Education'

 

 

 

 

4

3

Alec Baldwin, 'It's Complicated'

 

 

 

5

 

5

Peter Sarsgaard, 'An Education'

 

5

 

 

 

 

Photo: The Weinstein Co.

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Comments

If Waltz does win, it'll be on account of the Weinstein factor. Period. Ordinarily, Harrelson would have this in the bag- he's well liked on the Left Coast and has been up for an Oscar previously. Then again, if the Weinsteins can get Juliet Binoche an award that everyone on earth predicted would go to Lauren Bacall, it should pose no problem for an actor no one's ever heard of to prevail over an icon from "Cheers." Anyway- why in heaven's name is Christopher Plummer being talked up for a SUPPORTING award? His role in "Last Station" is as much of a lead as that of his co-star, Helen Mirren!

But---what happened to Christian McKay? Not a single performance has garnered as many critical plaudits as this fellow who 'channels' Orson Welles.

Who was it in another thread (or was it the forums) that thought Plummer was the front-runner? Sorry, folks; it's Waltz, whether Tom is right about "Inglourious Basterds" winning Best Picture or not (I doubt it).

Not much even to predict here--I'm almost positive Waltz is going to perform a total sweep this awards season. He has some very admirable fellow contenders this year, but unfortunately we'd need another Heath Ledger a la Joker to conjure up even minimal competition.

GO WALTZ and go Basterds!


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