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Oscar experts clash over 'Up in the Air' and 'Precious' to win best picture

December 3, 2009 |  7:29 am

Precious up in the air

Our updated Buzzmeter pooling Oscar predix from more than a dozen top pundits will be ready soon. Meantime, here's a sampling of the latest views of the best picture race from Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and me.

"Up in the Air" is the front-runner to win best picture with "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" close behind. Support for "The Lovely Bones" has dropped drastically since it started screening to critics and Oscar bloggers. There's less backing for "A Serious Man" too, but not because critics have suddenly turned against it. It's been around so long after debuting at the Toronto Film Festival in September that journos are probably a bit bored with it. "Avatar" hasn't screened to journos yet, so support remains strong except from EW's Karger.

Support grows for "District 9," which gets votes from Travers and me, and "It's Complicated," which is backed by Karger, Hammond and me. Stone's backing box-office surprise "The Blind Side."


BEST PICTURE Hammond Karger O'Neil Stone Thompson Travers
"Avatar"

2

 

8

4

10

'The Blind Side"      

10

   
"District 9"    

7

   

9

"An Education"

9

9

  

 8

6

4

"Hurt Locker"

6

3

5

2

5

3

"Inglourious Basterds"

8

10

1

7

10

8

"Invictus"

5

5

6

3

1

7

"Lovely Bones"

 

6

 

  

8

 
"It's Complicated"

10

7

10
     
"Nine"

4

4

9

4

9

6

"Precious"

3

2

2

5

2

1

"A Serious Man"    

4

9

   
"Up"

7

8

 

 

7

5

"Up in the Air"

1

1

3

1

3

2


Photo credits: Paramount, Lionsgate

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Comments

I think it's going to be between Precious, Up In The Air and The Hurt Locker simply because these are the three most critically acclaimed films of 2009. Precious scored an 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, The Hurt Locker scored a 98% and Up In The Air scored an 91%, but Up In The Air and The Hurt Locker are the types of films that are more likely to win Best Picture because is a drama/romance and the other is war/epic/drama, while Precious is being called the Slumdog Millionaire, Juno, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine, and American Beauty, the little movie that came out of nowhere and stole the show. I think it's gonna go to Precious.

"Up in the Air" and "Precious" are seriously flawed films that are not likely to stand the test of time. Or be remembered next year. The question to your experts is not who will win (by default), but has anyone made a great film this year.


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