My fearless, peerless, 100% perfect Oscar nomination predictions
Oscar nominations will be unveiled Tuesday morning. Here's what the derby track looks like in my crystal ball.
BEST PICTURE
"Avatar"
"District 9""An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Invictus"
"Precious"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
Vulnerable on the list above are "District 9," "Invictus" and "A Serious Man," which can be bumped by "The Hangover," "The Messenger," "A Single Man" or "Star Trek."
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
These seem to be set in stone.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"
Jeremy Renner may be bumped by Viggo Mortensen ("The Road").
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
Emily Blunt ("The Young Victoria") might dethrone one of the above.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
This is one of the toughest categories to predict because there are too many other strong contenders, including Matt Damon ("Invictus"), Alec Baldwin ("It's Complicated"), Anthony Mackie ("The Hurt Locker") and Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard ("An Education"). I put Christian McKay on my list because he gives a flashy portrayal of one of Hollywood's most idolized heroes, Orson Welles, in what is arguably a lead performance. Like Woody Harrelson, I think he even has a longshot chance to beat Christoph Waltz, but McKay's campaign DVD was sent rather late. That could hurt his chance of getting on this list.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Melanie Laurent, "Inglourious Basterds"
Mo'Nique, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Samantha Morton, "The Messenger"
A different "Inglourious Basterds" star, Diane Kruger, got nommed at SAG, but she didn't have to battle Laurent, who competed in the lead race. Oscar voters can put actors in whatever category they choose and I think they'll put Laurent where she belongs, in supporting. But there's a strong chance that another SAG nominee, last year's winner Penelope Cruz ("Nine"), or Julianne Moore ("A Single Man") could break through here too.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Avatar"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Up"
"A Serious Man"
I know, I know, James Cameron didn't get nominated for "Titanic," but I think that was because misogynist academy members pooh-poohed the screenplay for its wild, romantic ache. "Avatar" is more to their machismo taste, and to members of the Writers Guild where it got nommed. I know, I know, WGA nommed "Titanic" too and that didn't result in an Oscar bid, but over at the academy, I think all is forgiven now. That may mean a cold shoulder for "(500) Days of Summer."
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"An Education"
"District 9"
"Julie & Julia"
"Precious"
"Up in the Air"
"Julie & Julia" is vulnerable, could be ousted by "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "A Single Man," "Invictus" or "The Road."
Illustration by Tom O'Neil
NOTE: An earlier draft of this article mistakenly listed Daniel Day-Lewis in place of Jeff Bridges in the lead actor race.
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Meryl Streep is going to win the Oscar for Best Actress!!!! I can't wait to hear her speech.
Posted by: Rachel | February 08, 2010 at 10:25 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=oscar
according to this, jeff bridges is nominated... so congrats tom... can anyone verify this?! is abc nuts?!
Posted by: erwin | February 01, 2010 at 07:13 PM
You're not using the word "misogynist" correctly (in the discussion on original screenplay). It doesn't just mean the opposite of "machismo". It's hard to imagine people disliking any aspect of Titanic for misogynistic reasons.
Posted by: Jason | February 01, 2010 at 12:03 PM
Tom, 100%? Not so sure, though I agree with you on all the best pic noms and the best actor nods and mostly on all the others with the exception of supporting actress - always a hard one to call.
Posted by: Martin Bradley | February 01, 2010 at 10:49 AM
Education has been nominated for Best Picture, and many Best Performances. Why is the director who is also a woman not nominated?
thank you
Posted by: Marla Halperin | February 01, 2010 at 08:41 AM
Though it's got nothing to do wih me maybe the Academy awards, I think that sometimes the nominees are those who are so close to the Hollywood club in which the favourites are many of those who are pretty known around the world ('coz of Hollywood productions) and never get an Academy award. And sometimes there so many other actors and actresses that made such good performances that at least should be nominated such like Catalina Saavedra for The Maid or Ricardo Darin for The secret of her eyes or Charlotte Gainsbourg for Antichrist...It's just my point of view but I think those who vote should know this
Posted by: Dante Bentancour | January 31, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard, I'm glad you picked them because both gave great performances but you are also missing Carey Mulligan, she does a fantastic job and in "An Education" even though most of the people haven't seen this brit horse, which by the way is a total experience, her scene confronting Emma Thompson is supeb!
Posted by: Alvaro | January 31, 2010 at 03:05 AM
@ bambam: what are you smokin'?
I see Sandra Bollocks get her Razzie nomination on Monday! That's for sure. And I am not smokin'.
Posted by: Kanye | January 31, 2010 at 02:22 AM
I don't think Up will be nominated for Best Picture.
Posted by: Angel | January 30, 2010 at 10:57 PM
Most anyone could guess four out of five in the major categories - how about posting your predictions for the DIFFICULT categories (all the tech and craft nominations, animated, documentary and foreign language features)?
Posted by: Drood | January 30, 2010 at 08:48 PM
i am thinking zooey deschanel will get meryl's actress spot -- come on, meryl won't win so why nom her, and 500 days will pull at least a screenplay nod if not a best picture. i don't see avatar with a screenplay nod.
i personally think invictus and julie and julia and all involved will be ignored. and i think tucci will not get a nom for lovely bones.
i see invictus and single man getting replaced by star trek and hangover.
i see melanie laurent getting that deserved nom in supporting, and i see julianne moore getting a nom over vera.
i see maggie gyllenhal getting nommed in either actress or supporting.
Posted by: bambam | January 30, 2010 at 07:56 PM
Praying for a Marion Cotillard and Mélanie Laurent nomination in Best Supporting Actress!!!
Posted by: John | January 30, 2010 at 07:40 PM
Good guesses. Not great.
Best Picture Nominees:
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Up
Up In The Air
Best Actor:
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Best Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia*
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor:
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire*
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Best Director:
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Single Man
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Up In The Air*
Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
Posted by: TJ Seher | January 30, 2010 at 07:30 PM
My predictions for this year's Oscars until it comes this Tuesday morning are:
Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Actor
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Actress
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invicuts
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Posted by: Leo | January 30, 2010 at 07:07 PM
My predictions for this year's Oscars until it comes this Tuesday morning are:
Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Actor
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Actress
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invicuts
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Posted by: Leo | January 30, 2010 at 07:07 PM
heres hoping that all love for invictus will evaporate by nominations morning. perhaps only freemans nom is adequate but even that is pushing it.
Posted by: alex | January 30, 2010 at 06:02 PM
If Melanie Laurent is nominated, Mo'Nique better start practicing her polite losing face.
Posted by: Jess | January 30, 2010 at 05:45 PM
The only reason WGA nominated Avatar was because of the multitude of ineligibilities. I seriously doubt we would see a nomination for Avatar in the Screenplay category. If that happens then you know it wins Best Picture, which won't happen because the actors support The Hurt Locker. I also have a hard time seeing Emily Blunt getting that 5th slot. I'm hoping the Academy shows Mackie some love.
Posted by: Rick | January 30, 2010 at 05:10 PM
ooops, I was cut and pasting lists and so that's how DD-L got in place of Bridges. Yikes! OK, so maybe the initial list was only 95% accurate -- now 100% thanx to YOU. Tx for the good catch.
Posted by: Tom O'Neil | January 30, 2010 at 05:03 PM
Tom, why isn't jeff bridges not on the best actor race. He has won almost every award.
Posted by: Rishi Mehta | January 30, 2010 at 05:00 PM
Jeff Bridges?
Posted by: G | January 30, 2010 at 04:48 PM
Did you forget Jeff Bridges or do you seriously think he's not even a contender for sixth place?
Posted by: Eh? | January 30, 2010 at 04:36 PM
You're really predicting Daniel Day Lewis over Jeff Daniels?? Yowza.
Posted by: Tony Randall | January 30, 2010 at 04:32 PM
I'm sure your lead actor list is mistaken.....you have D Day-Lewis in the running and not Jeff Bridges, the clear frontrunner at the moment.
Posted by: Patrick Roaldsen | January 30, 2010 at 04:29 PM
My Oscar Predictions are:
Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Star Trek
Up
Up in The Air
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push by Sapphire)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Alfred Molina (An Education)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Diane Kruger (Inglourious Basterds)
Monique (Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire)
Samantha Morton (The Messenger)
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Crazy Heart
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Posted by: Brian | January 30, 2010 at 04:23 PM