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How will SAG Awards impact who wins the Oscars?

January 23, 2010 |  8:43 pm

Well, it sure didn't matter that Paramount and Columbia spent a pile sending DVD screeners of "Up in the Air" and "Julie & Julia" to nearly all 100,000 SAG Awards voters. George Clooney and Meryl Streep lost to Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock even though Fox Searchlight and Warner Bros. didn't blitz Screen Actors Guild members with discs of "Crazy Heart" and "The Blind Side."

SAG Awards Oscars Screen Actors Guild news

That tells us Oscarologists what formidable candidates Bridges and Bullock are as they head toward the Oscars. It's clear that one of them — Bridges — now looks like an inevitable Oscar champ. Maybe Bullock too, but her bout with Meryl Streep isn't over yet. Maybe SAG voters ventured from Streep this year because they just hailed her with their lead-actress prize last year ("Doubt"). Streep hasn't won an Oscar for 27 years and academy members know that she's overdue. She may hold the record for most nominations (15), but she's only won one and a half times ("Sophie's Choice" in lead, "Kramer vs. Kramer" in supporting).

Obviously, two other SAG victories tonight made future Oscar wins inevitable too: Christoph Waltz ("Inglourious Basterds") and Mo'Nique ("Precious"). Or are they? Remember, upsets happen most often in those tricky supporting races.

But what should we think of the victory of "Inglourious Basterds" as best ensemble? That's the prize that sometimes foretells the film that will best picture at the Oscars. At least it's done so seven times in 14 years, twice hinting at major upsets ahead: "Crash" and "Shakespeare in Love." But beware: Two films weren't nominated in the SAG ensemble category that are formidable rivals for best picture at the Academy Awards: "Avatar" and "Up in the Air."

Speaking of "Inglourious Basterds," its most famous star wasn't present to claim his ensemble trophy. Hmmm, Brad Pitt was also absent from the recent Golden Globes where "Basterds" was nominated for best drama picture. There were reports that he skipped the Globes to watch the New Orleans Saints play football. Maybe there's truth to tabloid tattle that he's not only busted up (again) with Angelina Jolie, but that they just signed a multi-million-dollar split deal that grants them joint custody of the kids.
Did you notice that another nominee was missing tonight — a chap over in the TV races? Tabloid darling Charlie Sheen.


Complete list of SAG Award winners and nominees

Julianna Margulies and Alec Baldwin are queen and king of the SAG Awards

Is the SAG Ensemble award really an Oscar prophet?

SAG Awards: Who will win and WHY

Experts predict who'll win the SAG Awards

Photo: "The Blind Side" (Warner Bros.)

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Jess. Bette Davis and Katherine Hepburn were absolutley wonderful. I wish they were still around making great films. They were highly deserving of Oscar victories. But, I come back to all the not so great choices for Oscar that have happened over past decades. I'm glad Brian mentioned his 10 choices for worst Oscar wins. I'm simply saying Sandra Bullock winning an Oscar would hardly be the worst error in Oscar history. She gave a star making performance in a year with only a few "oh my, that definitely deserves an Oscar" performances. Once again, I love Meryl Streep. I'm a big fan. But to give her the Oscar this year simply because she upholds some historical standard for acting ability seems odd to me. Sandra did a fine job. Her SAG peers are awarding her for it. Maybe Oscar voters won't. If they do I will cheer for her. If they don't I won't lose any sleep.

Stop with this "Chariots of Fire" throwback going on all across the internet. Please compare it to Adrien Brody, thanks.

Some of the worst oscar wins have occured in the last 10 Years, I can think of some of them.

Gladiator for Best Picture instead of Traffic in 2000.
Nicole Kidman (The Hours over Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven) in 2002
Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain) over Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog) in 2003.
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) over Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain in 2005 but Ledger got the last laugh when he won (posthumously) in 2008 for The Dark Knight over
Hoffman for Doubt.
Crash for Best Picture in 2005 over Brokeback Mountain.

Michael, you fail to realize that your "fact" = opinion. Sandra carrying a film might be a fact indeed, but her being wonderful and deserving of the very same Oscar Bette Davis and Katherine Hepburn have received on numerous occasions is opinion. Let's get that much straight.

Everyone seems so upset about Sandra Bullock's SAG victory. I'm still laughing at the hostility of it all. Fact. Sandra gave a great performance in "The Blindside." Fact. She carried the ENTIRE film. Fact. Meryl Streep is the world's greatest actress. FACT. She was terrific in "Julia & Julie," but she was in only half the film and this was not her best role or best film. Fact. No one seems upset with Meryl Streep having a great box office run. "Julia & Julie" and "Its Complicated" have been big money makers too. Sandra did not get a BAFTA nom because "The Blindside" missed the consideration date. There have been far more egregious past Oscar wins. M&M for best song. Renee Zelweger's hillbilly performance in "Cold Mountain."
The list would take pages. Meryl defeating Sandra at the Oscars as some kind of "block" for critical career achievement. That would be a mistake. Meryl will be nominated and win many more awards in the future. Too bad the naysayers cannot be satisfied with that along with the bevy of awards and nominations Meryl has already won. And to think I started this comment by simply saying: box office popularity does not preclude an actor/actress from an Oscar victory.

Love the righteous indignation over Bullock's win.

Hello... Sandra a favourite? Since when? She was not even nominated for a BAFTA, I know she doesn't care, but BAFTA stands above SAG!!!

SAG on the other hand is not the ACADEMY, Meryl won the globe + Broadcast Critics' Choice, Sandy too; Meryl won at the SAGs last year, this year she's also nominated for a BAFTA, Sands isn't, they, at the moment have 50/50 chances at the Oscars, BUT, I know The Academy badly wants to finally give it to Meryl and I'm not the only one who knows that :) Just wait and see.

Sandra Bullock? Let's not forget MISS CONGENIALITY, THE PREMONITION, ALL ABOUT STEVE, THE NET, THE PROPOSAL...Her winning an Oscar would be the biggest fraud ever inflicted the Academy. No one would ever take them seriously again!!

Does anyone remember the year they gave Julia Roberts an Oscar while forgetting to even nominate Bjork's gutwrenching performance in Dancer in the Dark. Odds are the old boys club will overlook refined talent to once again give a pat on the back to a populist pretty girl for taking on a mildly challenging stab at "serious acting". Bets should be on Sandra Bull...ock.

Ah, of course... Up in the Air wasn't nominated... I was wondering why they had Clooney announcing that.

what is it with the one and a half times - she's won TWO oscars, Mr. O'neil....yes, i think she is due, and yes i think it's for a deserved performance. I don't understand why you write the things you write. It's ignorant journalism.

Escribo en castellano pero traduzcan esto por favor. Sandra Bullock ganando un Oscar por mejor actriz es algo que ni en sueño muchos de nosotros nos imaginábamos siquiera. Miembros de la Academia, por favor no cometan el mismo error que en el pasado, donde decisiones tomadas a la ligera luego de un par de años los hicieron ruborizarse de la verguenza. Gyneth Paltrow haciendonos reir con su falso acento británico imponiendose a Cate Blanchett o Fernanda Montenegro. Halle Berry y su delirante triunfo frente a Sissy Spacek o Reese perforándonos los tímpanos con su voz de nena tonta venciendo sobre Felicity Hoffman. Definitivamente cualquiera de las cuatros excelentes actrices que competirán por el Oscar (seguramente) Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe o Mirren, en ese orden merecen el reconocimiento más que Bullock. Si una buena actuación se hace bajando unos kilos, planchándose el pelo y poniendo cara de seria, Sandra tendrá en marzo un Oscar en su baño para ruborizarse cada vez que entre en el. Si el Oscar es un premio que reconoce una actuación que queda en nuestras mentes por años, ya saben que hacer. Los críticos le han dicho NO a Sandra Bullock, y me corrijo, los críticos de las asociaciones serias. Qué pasó con los critics choice? Ummm.

Carey Mulligan or Meryl Streep should bring Kanye West as their date to the Oscars next month.

So when that mediocre film actress Sandra Bullock wins her undeserved Best Actress prize, Mr. West can go on the stage and do his thing.

"Hey, Sandra, I'mma let you finish and everything, but Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan had the best performances of this year! THIS YEAR!!" LOL

Seriously, the star of "All About Steve" better not be cited as this year's best.

I think the upsets this year are more likely in lead than supporting, if only because Waltz & Mo'Nique were already consensus before the SAGs while Bridges & Bullock weren't.

Remember also, the entire SAG membership votes here; only a small part of them constitute the Academy's acting branch. Since the acting branch is mostly seasoned film actors (fewer TV actors, newcomers, wannabes, etc.), that might fall more in Streep's favor--whether for a win or (more likely IMO) to cause my "Chariots of Fire" scenario where either Carey Mulligan or Gabby Sidibe steals the Oscar. (Remember, what vote splits are out there suggests it's actually VERY close between the four of them.)

And I'm still not comfortable with Bridges as a front-runner. Though Mickey Rourke didn't win the SAG last year, I still have a feeling the Academy will think of Bridges in the same vein as Rourke--good for a nomination, but not a win. Besides, the impact of George Clooney's putting together the Haiti telethon will weigh more on the Academy due to both timing and membership mix. And if Kathryn Bigelow gets the DGA, Jeremy Renner will be back in the thick of it.

If Oscar choose Sandra Bollocks for Best Actress as SAG or even GG did, then Oscar is a popularity contest now.
It will make Oscar don't have credibility and integrity anymore as they choose Box Office Mediocre Movie & Actress instead of the best one. I prefer to follow and watch some European Festival Awards then.

Meryl losing the Oscar to Bullock would be an absolute joke. It'll prove the Oscars are just begging to be more popular (i.e. higher ratings) rather than caring about who actually gave the best performance that year.

as if the 10 Best Picture nods aren’t bad enough now Sandra Bullock is going to win Best Actress!!!!!??? it will be Oscar’s Pia Zadora moment…..

To suggest that Meryl's win for Kramer vs Kramer is somehow "worth" less just because it was in supporting is absolutely ridiculous and condescending.

I'd like to see you call Heath Ledger's turn as the Joker a "half" a win.

One and a half? Don't be disrespectful. If a supporting Oscar means half, they would still give a plaque to those winners. Meryl has won TWO Oscars, and TWO statuettes. Thank you.

It's official: THE SAG AWARDS ARE A JOKE! To give Sandra Bullock, a women who continually plays herself over and over again and can't really act, an award for a performance that should have never been nominated in the first place IS A COMPLETE JOKE. Yes, Sandra is likeable, but does she deserve the award for having a great year at the box office. HELL NO! Once again, these award shows just prove that they have NO CREDIBILITY. Streep definitely deserved the award, but this is par for the course. She is used to getting screwed over. Plus, it wasn't that long ago that Reese Witherspoon and Gwenith Paltrow won oscars for their less than stellar performances. This is a debauchery. Horrible!!!!!!!!! What a complete joke!

Yeah I think BP is the only race left. Looks like it's Bridges, Bullock, Waltz, Mo'Nique for sure. I dunno. Maybe we should play cards or something to kill the time.



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