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SAG Awards: Who will win and WHY

January 22, 2010 |  1:10 pm

Tariq Khan (Fox News) is one of the shrewdest award scholars I know. After he generously contributed his SAG Awards predictions to this roundup we pooled from many top experts, he agreed to write up detailed explanations for the rop races. Words below are Tariq's:

SAG Awards predictions 83290154 news

FILM ACTOR: I think Jeff Bridges has it, though an upset by George Clooney is certainly possible because "Up in the Air" has been far more widely seen than "Crazy Heart." Still, Bridges is a very respected actor and even those who haven't seen the film will want to reward him.

FILM ACTRESS: I went back and forth on this for hours before finally settling on Meryl Streep. The reason? She's acting royalty and Sandy Bullock isn't. And even though "Julie and Julia" may seem lightweight, comedy has a better success rate with the SAG voters (remember Johnny Depp's upset win for "Pirates of the Caribbean" six years ago? ) than other groups. However – even if Bullock loses that doesn't mean that she can't win the Oscar.

FILM ENSEMBLE: "Inglourious Basterds" has it all – a large cast, a wartime setting, several memorable characters and a blend of comedy and drama that has proven victorious in this race in the past ("The Birdcage," "The Full Monty," and "Gosford Park.") It has much more widespread appeal than "Precious" and "The Hurt Locker," and I guarantee you that it has been more widely seen by SAG members than the other four films combined.

TV DRAMA ACTOR: I don't think "Dexter" is seen by enough people for Michael C. Hall to win. Hugh Laurie benefits from the huge ratings from "House," not to mention the cool British thespian factor.

TV DRAMA ACTRESS: The race is between Glenn Close and Julianne Margulies. I give it to the latter because "The Good Wife" is watched by many more people, and Margulies has strong support from TV actors from her days on the smash "ER." (She previously won this award for her work on that show.)

TV COMEDY ACTRESS: Tina Fey is still hot enough that she can win again – the audiences for "Tara" and "Jackie" probably aren't big enough for upsets by Toni Collette or Edie Falco.

TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE: "30 Rock" is still hip enough that it will likely prevail, despite its sagging ratings. "Glee" and "Modern Family" both have a shot at winning because they are more widely seen, though the casts may not seem as prestigious.

RELATED POSTS

Experts predict who'll win the SAG Awards

List of SAG Awards nominees

Is the SAG ensemble award really an Oscar prophet?

Justin Timberlake, Sandra Bullock among SAG Awards presenters

DVDs play a secret starring role in who wins SAG Awards

Photo: "Inglourious Basterds" (Weinstein Co.)

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Comments

"The Blind Side" wasn't released soon enough to make the time cutoff so Sandra will more than likely be nominated next year.

I was happy that Sandra Bullock won but I honestly thought Meryl Streep gave the better performance of the two. Meryl can still win the Oscar. Sandra isn't even nominated for the BAFTA award.

@RBBrittain, I am fully convinced you have no idea what you are talking about.

I still can't believe Bullock is in contention for any of these honors. People's Choice Award? I get it. Oscar? Absolutely not.

IB may well win ensemble (so could "The Hurt Locker" or "Precious"), but remember that's the one SAG film category that is LEAST likely to predict the Oscars. Besides, the SAG entry field has two huge flaws the Oscars won't have--(a) 5 less films and, more importantly, (b) no blue people. But I won't be able to predict Best Picture till at least the DGAs next weekend, and maybe not till after the nominations.

I see Jeff Bridges as this year's Mickey Rourke: He's the feel-good comeback story, but that ain't enough to win--at least when it comes to the Oscar. Even if he wins the SAG, expect either George Clooney (who's racking up brownie points--intentionally or unintentionally--from heading the Haiti relief show) or Jeremy Renner to get the Oscar.

And I still compare the Best Actress race to the 1981 Best Picture race--it's an arms race between "On Golden Pond" (Meryl Streep) and "Reds" (Sandra Bullock), but it gets so out of control that "Chariots of Fire" (Carey Mulligan or my choice, Gabby Sidibe) sneaks off with the Oscar. That's true even if Meryl or Sandra wins the SAG.

I really can't rate the TV categories, but I see Tariq didn't even mention the supporting races; obviously, that's because Christoph Waltz & Mo'Nique already have them in the bag (both SAG and Oscar).


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