Poll: Will Sandra Bullock, Carey Mulligan or Gabby Sidibe win best drama actress at the Golden Globes?
According the experts' predix we've pooled so far, the Golden Globe race for best drama actress is a fierce diva smackdown between Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Carey Mulligan ("An Education").
That makes sense when employing traditional awards analysis. Globers consistently adore two things: hot superstars and ingenues. Bullock has been a longtime A-Lister overdue for a crown and she's reigning high right now. "The Blind Side" just became the first film driven solely by a female star to top $200 million at the U.S. box office. The role bears obvious parallels to Julia Roberts in "Erin Brokovich," who won this category in 2000.
Bullock was nominated twice in the past, both times on the comedy/musical side. When she was nommed for "While You Were Sleeping" (1995), she lost to Nicole Kidman ("To Die For") and when she was in the running for "Miss Congeniality" (2000), she got trounced by not-so-congenial Renee Zellweger ("Nurse Betty"). This year Bullock is nominated in that same slot for "The Proposal" and she has a real chance to win there, but she faces tough competition from Meryl Streep ("Julie and Julia") and Marion Cotillard ("Nine").
Carey Mulligan has a lot going for her in this drama race: class, charm, loveliness and – most important of all – a British accent. The last three winners of this race were Brits: Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road"), Julie Christie ("Away from Her") and Helen Mirren ("The Queen"). Voters have special respect for outlanders because they're members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. Her odds in this contest are boosted by the fact that "An Education" is set in Limeyland and that she, personally speaking, seems like a star who'll be around shining brightly in the future — a kind of young Audrey Hepburn.
But, personally speaking, I'm betting on Gabourey Sidibe ("Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"). Globers don't usually hail newcomers, especially if they're not of the Audrey Hepburn profile, but voters have shown special appreciation through the years for shockingly raw, bleeding performances like Felicity Huffman ("Transamerica") and Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies"). If I'm right and Sidibe gives another nerve-piercing performance at the podium, she'll pass her Oscar audition and win again on March 7. That's what happened to Hilary Swank ("Boys Don't Cry") and Jamie Foxx ("Ray"), who were both Oscar-bound after wowing the ceremony crowd at the Beverly Hilton.
Emily Blunt can't win because she doesn't open a vein in "The Young Victoria." Helen Mirren pours out her heart — and lots of rage and hysterics — as Tolstoy's shrewish wife in "The Last Station," giving a performance quite opposite of her tight-faced turn in "The Queen," but her recent win for that role dethrones her chances now.
Photos: "The Blind Side" (Warner Bros.), "An Education" (Sony Pictures Classics), "Precious" (Lionsgate)