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Most of our Oscar experts say 'The Hurt Locker' will win best picture

February 7, 2010 |  9:38 am
The hurt locker news Oscars Acdemy Awards

We asked these notable pundits to predict the top contest at the Oscars: Marshall Fine (Star Magazine, Hollywood & Fine), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today). We ranked the nominees according to their likelihood of winning. Five of six of us say "The Hurt Locker" will win. Jeff Wells remains a holdout for "Avatar."

BEST PICTURE Fine Hammond O'Neil Stone Wells Wloszczyna
"Avatar"

3

2

3

2

1

2

'Blind Side'

7

7

9

10

4

6

"District 9"

10

8

6

6

6

9

"An Education"

9

9

8

8

5

8

"Hurt Locker"

1

1

1

1

2

1

"Inglourious Basterds"

5

4

2

3

7

3

"Precious"

4

5

5

5

8

5

"A Serious Man"

10

7

9

10

"Up"

6

6

10

7

10

7

"Up in the Air"

2

3

4

4

3

4


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Photo: Summit Entertainment

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Comments

I think people are looking at the preferential ballot the wrong way. Everything I read seems to say the movie with the most #2 votes will likely do very well. This is short-sighted in my opinion. What people need to be thinking is what are the likely 8th, 9th, and 10th place films in first place votes and what are those votes likely to list as the second best movie. After all, it won't matter if The Hurt Locker is first on most ballots and Inglourious Basterds is second on most of those, because they will never be counted. The only second place votes that will be counted will be from the movies that get removed from the vote. So Blind Side, Up, District 9, and a Serious Man (probably) will be the bottom 4. What are voters who thought The Blind Side was the #1 movie of the year think is the #2 movie? That's the question people need to be asking. I think this GREATLY favors Avatar. I guess we'll see and we'll never truly know, but it seems to me that's the way people need to be analyzing this race.

Inglorious Basterds has so many layers to it that it makes Avatar look like a children's movie. The hurt locker is great but take that suspense and add multiple superb performances, a well written script and a story so classic and you've got the great Basterds.

Inglorious should be the front runner and should win Tarantino the Oscar. Just think of all he has contributed to cinema. Cameron deserved his win for Titanic but not for the dull Avatar.

Basterds is without a doubt the best picture of the year and tarantino's best work.

If Avatar wins it will be one of the worst best picture winners in Oscar history it's not even one of the 20 best films of the year.
The Hurt Locker is my far the BEST PICTURE OF 2009 and one of the best pictures of the decade.

Up is not the sixth or the tenth choice! It's the popular vote! I really believe it has more supporters than Avatar!

Like Best Actress, Best Pic is neck and neck between Avatar and Hurt Locker...so an upset by either District 9 or Up or some other film will not be much of a surprise...District 9 should win if the front runners split votes

Aren't these the same experts who predicted that The Hurt Locker would win the Golden Globe as well?
Aren't these the same experts who predicted that Titanic would never win Best Picture against L.A. Confidential?...

These experts better be prepared for disappointment come Oscar night. The Oscars are an INDUSTRY award, NOT CRITICS awards. If The Hurt Locker were to win, it would mean that the Academy has turned a blind eye to impact of a film like Avatar on the industry itself, as a huge boosting of power to Hollywood. It would mean the Academy further distances itself from box office, and the favorites of the people worldwide. It's not going to happen. Even though The Hurt Locker may be a better picture, but it's not going to go home with the top prize.

Not that it really matters anyways whether Avatar wins or not. Most people in the U.S. I think have given up on watching the Oscars because most of the films are smaller, indie type art-house films that not many people saw. Just look at the ratings in the past 5 years.

Avatar's success has already been established. It has the money, the moxy, and the fanbase. Whether it has a gold statue means little in the long-run, because it will be the movie that is remembered 20 years from now. I have a hard time believing that most people will recall The Hurt Locker in 2030, or any great impact that it had on movies.

The voters in the Academy are not critics and may not vote the way critics are predicting. As much heat Avatar is getting it was the first or second pick for all the critics listed but one, which in my book makes it close race. I personally found Avatar to be a supremely entertaining movie. I saw it seven weeks ago and I still can't get it out of my mind. It will be a long time before I see another movie that will come close to doing what Avatar did.

Lord, I love this site and its pundits. Your whims change according to box-office receipts, critics awards, and the latest guild winners. In short, you're not really predicting anything that the rest of us can't. The Hurt Locker as best picture? Of course, after its wins from the DGA and PGA, and year-end sweep of critics awards. Some "experts" you are.

Tom O'Neil why did you change your mind about 'Basterds'?

Basterds is an abomination.

The P.R. supporting its nomination should win an award.

Tarantino is Cassavetes-Light. His scenes drag-on and he has been on a stupid spaghetti western kick since Pulp Fiction, which is the only film of his worth seeing.

Inglorious Basterds should win, I really hope in the next month that academy members play their screeners and watch this movie from beginning to end. It is by far the most inventive, most satisfying and truly the best picture of the year. I would be happy with Hurt Locker, just not the dull Avatar.

Tarantino should win best director.


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