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Oscar nomination predictions smackdown: Tom vs. Pete

February 1, 2010 |  4:18 pm

With Oscar nominations being unveiled Tuesday morning, it's time for you to take sides between two of your fave Envelope bloggers. Who do you think has the best Academy Awards predictions: me or Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season)?

BEST PICTURE
"Avatar" — Tom, Pete
"District 9" — Tom, Pete
"An Education" — Tom, Pete
"The Hurt Locker" — Tom, Pete
"Inglourious Basterds" — Tom, Pete
"Invictus" — Tom, Pete
Oscar Silhouette1"Precious" — Tom, Pete
"A Serious Man" — Tom
"Michael Jackson's This Is It" — Pete
"Up" — Tom, Pete
"Up in the Air" — Tom, Pete

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker" — Tom, Pete
James Cameron, "Avatar" — Tom, Pete
Lee Daniels, "Precious" — Tom, Pete
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air" — Tom, Pete
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds" — Tom, Pete

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart" — Tom, Pete
George Clooney, "Up in the Air" — Tom, Pete
Colin Firth, "A Single Man" — Tom, Pete
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus" — Tom, Pete
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker" — Tom, Pete

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side" — Tom, Pete
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station" — Tom, Pete
Carey Mulligan, "An Education" — Tom, Pete
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious" — Tom, Pete
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia" — Tom, Pete

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger" — Tom, Pete
Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles" — Tom
Alfred Molina, "An Education" — Pete
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station" — Tom, Pete
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones" — Tom, Pete
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds" — Tom, Pete

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air" — Tom, Pete
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air" — Tom, Pete
Melanie Laurent, "Inglourious Basterds" — Tom
Mo'Nique, "Precious" — Tom, Pete
Julianne Moore, "A Single Man" — Pete
Samantha Morton, "The Messenger" — Tom, Pete

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Avatar" — Tom
"Inglourious Basterds" — Tom, Pete
"The Hangover" — Pete
"The Hurt Locker" — Tom, Pete
"Up" — Tom, Pete
"A Serious Man"  — Tom, Pete

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"An Education"  — Tom, Pete
"District 9"  — Tom, Pete
"Fantastic Mr. Fox" — Pete 
"Julie & Julia"  — Tom
"Precious"  — Tom, Pete
"Up in the Air"  — Tom, Pete

RELATED POST

My fearless, peerless, 100% perfect Oscar nomination predictions

Illustration by Tom O'Neil

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Comments

Hurt Locker all the way.

Kudos again to Tom! as I've said
before you easily rank up there
along with such fellow *OSCAR pundits/oddsmakers as>*William Goldman, The late: gene Siskel & again, sadly the already late>Joel (GMA) Siegel!

The latter just somehow always knew over the20 some odd yearswhat would be nommed & as for Gene he just knew what & who would win!?

& all know of 2 time *AMPAS winnrer: Goldman-(l931-)
Only wish he had own site!
For those not aware he took home statuttes for writing both "Butch and Sundance" (l969) & "All the President's Men" (l976)i thought "The Hangover' was fun enough stuff (***-out of four) & "Star Trek' was fine-(I've always been a loyal Capt. kirkfan & swore tonever go back to the franchise after hisdemise in the 1994 version)
though caught it on dvd. Sole debit, it's way over thetop villian. Nomatchfor Ricardo Montalban's "Khan"

However, no matter the ridiculous 10 Bp contenders, these 2 certainly don't seem poised to make the final BEST PICTURE CUT!!!

Or does "District 9"

But we shall ofcourse see''

1thing is certain "Avatar' will almost certainly lead the field with most overall nods due to all those technical categories of course-(10 to 12)

However, it seems the groundwork has kinda' been laid for awhile for "Hurt Locker"-(amazingly only made $12 million last august!?)
To sweep come actual night at "The Kodak-Theatre"

(P.S. I certainly hope McKay gets nommed though seems unlikely?
He's thee most accurate *Welles I've ever seen!

TIP: Check-outHBO's tv movie "RKO-281" too)

THANKS

I think overall Tom's predictions are better, or maybe that's because his most closely match mine, :). I just don't think there's any hope of "This Is It" being nominated for Best Picture, while I think "A Serious Man" has a small chance. In fact, I did have that movie in my top 10 nominees at one point, but now I've moved "Crazy Heart" there instead since it seems like the momentum on "A Serious Man" Has faded while "Crazy Heart" peaked at the right time.

I also think Christian McKay has a slightly better chance of being nominated for Best Supporting Actor than Alfred Molina. I'm not sold on either, but whereas Molina is a respected character actor who I'm sure will get a Paul Giamatti/John C. Reilly type of overdue nomination someday, I just don't feel a lot of love for his performance in "An Education" like his co-star Carey Mulligan did. Plus, it seems that movie peaked too soon. On the other hand, McKay's role seems like the kind that actors really love to see other actors play, and he steals the show in his movie unlike Molina.

However, in supporting actress, I would give the edge to Pete, but only slightly since I can't believe neither Pete or Tom picked Diane Kruger, whom I think has a much better chance than Laurent, Moore, or Morton because of her SAG nomination. While I think Moore is a slightly better choice than Laurent just because she's more a lot more known to voters and didn't suffer from category confusion or internal competition, I don't see her getting in if she couldn't get in with SAG or BAFTA especially the former who seemed to nominate her for any possible role of her's that qualified.

For the screenplay categories, I think Tom's choices of "Avatar" and "Julie and Julia" seem more like Oscar bait to me than "The Hangover" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox" especially "J&J". I'm surprised no one went with "(500) Days of Summer" or "Crazy Heart" which are both in my screenplay predictions.

Sandra Bullock deserves her nomination and deserves to win and it's NOT a slow year. I guess popular actresses are not allowed to be nominated.

Is Melanie Laurant in the supporting category? I know the academy can choose which one -- but is she running for one or the other? I hope she gets a nod along with Diane Kruger -- who i think were both better than the up in the air actresses.

Go Inglorious Basterds, it should really be Tarantino's year -- he should finally win Best director for his best film ever, for him to top himself is just amazing and deserving.

http://abcnews.go.com/search?searchtext=oscar

got this info from a forum poster in incontention.com

apparently, penelope's been nominated ...

There's always a surprise in the Director category. I don't think Precious was all that well directed, and it may get bumped for something like District 9. I think Melanie Laurent will see a nom over Julianne Moore. I disagree with all the pundits that Up will wind up in Best Picture; that's why they created the animated slots.

And I hate to say this, but you know it was a slow year for lead actresses when Sandra Bullock is nominated for an Oscar. But hey, it didn't stop Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts.


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