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My fearless, peerless, 100% perfect Oscar predictions

February 20, 2010 |  2:36 pm

Last year I had the most correct Oscar predictions among all experts at The Envelope's Buzzmeter. Now I intend to do it again this year. Here's my full list of forecasts in all Academy Awards categories:

Oscars Academy Awards predictions predict news

BEST PICTURE: "Inglourious Basterds"
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "Up"
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "The White Ribbon"
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL): "Inglourious Basterds," Quentin Tarantino
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED): "Up in the Air," screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE): "Up," Michael Giacchino
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG): "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)"
BEST ART DIRECTION: "Avatar" *
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Avatar"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "The Young Victoria"
BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE): "The Cove"
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT): "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
BEST FILM EDITING: "The Hurt Locker"


BEST MAKEUP: "Star Trek"
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED): "A Matter of Loaf and Death"
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION): "Kavi"
BEST SOUND EDITING: "The Hurt Locker"
BEST SOUND MIXING: "The Hurt Locker"
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "Avatar"

* Note: The original prediction for best art direction was changed to "Avatar."

Photo: AMPAS

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Comments

My Oscars 2010 Prediction

'Avatar' -- A foregone conclusion if ever there was one.

or 'District 9'- Julian Clarke
The arrival of an enormous disabled spaceship over Johannesburg, South Africa, has led to the establishment of a refugee camp on the city's outskirts for the ship's starving, stranded aliens.
http://www.wonderdvd.com/news/2010-oscars-predictions.html

I just came across these predictions. I'm certainly no expert in cinema, but I was quite relieved to see that in all but three cases, your choices were exactly the same as mine for my office pool!

I differed from you on:

Best picture (Me: Hurt Locker, You: Inglorious Basterds), Sound Editing (Me: Avatar, You: Hurt Locker), and Sound Mixing (Me: Avatar, You: Hurt Locker)

Let me start off by saying Inglourious Basterds probably should win the Best Picture award, but I think it will be Avatar.

Next, The Hurt Locker may win as well, but what some of you are arguing is that the Academy actually cares more about gold statues and "good movies" than it does about MONEY. I'm not one that is totally gung-ho about Avatar winning best picture, I enjoyed the film immensely, but in the end I don't think it really matters since most people don't care to pay attention to award shows. But MONEY does still play a big part in who wins.

Best Actress - it will really be a big joke if Sandra wins ... sigh

With the exception of the short subject, foreign film and documentary categories, which I did not pick as it's impossible to see most of them, I agree with every other pick you have chosen, though I'm up in the air about the sound awards (Hurt Locker vs. Avatar), with the exception of two of the biggies: Best picture and actress. I would not be upset by an Inglourious Basterds surprise win as I loved it, though I don't think it will happen, but a win by the likeable Bullock, would be a true Academy embarassment. Since there is a long list of Academy embarassments thoughout their history, her winning is certainly not impossible, but it certainly is not better than the fifth best performance of these five.

I know these are just your predictions Tom, but I trust in your analysis especially in regards to Best Pic. I hope Basterds win that. As to the Best Actress and Supporting Actress, I'm hoping for surprise upsets, esp a win for Maggie Gyllenhaal.

I think "The Hurt Locker" will win Best Picture because of support from the Actors Branch - specifically, women. The Actors Branch is the largest and also has more women than any other branch. Women will want to support Kathryn, in case she doesn't win Best Director. Since everybody votes for Best Picture, and since Kathryn is one of movie's credited producers, voting for "The Hurt Locker" lets female Academy members recognize the historic nature of Ms. Bigelow's nomination.

Meryl Streep has NOT had 16 nominations in a row without winning. And she has won two Oscars - one for 1979's "Kramer vs. Kramer" (Best Supporting Actress), and one for 1982's "Sophie's Choice" (Best Actress). It is extremely rare for an actress to win more than two Oscars - only Ingrid Bergman and Katharine Hepburn have done it.

I think "Avatar" will win more Oscars than you predict, including Best Picture. (I myself would choose it.) "The Hurt Locker", which I confess I haven't seen yet, may have a better plot and truly impressive acting, but "Avatar" is an astounding breakthrough, and movies with less-than-impressive storylines ("Gigi", "An American in Paris", "The Sting", "Going My Way", "It Happened One Night") have won for Best Picture before. The achievement of "Avatar" is so impressive that it will overwhelm any considerations and petty objections about plot. After all, "Oklahoma!" is considered a breakthrough in musical theatre, and nobody ever claimed that it had an intellectual, complex storyline - it's about a cowboy who wants to take his girlfriend to a dance but has to contend with a psycho farmhand!

Meryl Streep will definitely win!

Tom, can you tell us why you think WHITE RIBBON will win Best Foreign Language Film?

And why CHINA'S UNNATURAL DISASTER for Doc Short?

I still think Streep has a real chance for actress. Why?

-- She gave an utterly charming performance in J&J.
-- Up till recently, everyone accepted that this was finally the year in which she MUST be given another lead actress award
-- I believe that SAG voters gave Bullock the SAG for the very reason that they intended to vote for Streep for Oscar. they are sharing the prizes, but keeping the "big one" for Streep.
-- I just cannot believe that the least deserving actress nominee (Bullock) is going to win over four other more deserving nominees.
-- Not one person who voted against Bullock in the SAGs will vote for her in the Oscars. But I think many who voted for Sidibe or Mulligan will decide that their candidates have no chance, and that Bullock has to be stopped, and so they will switch their votes to Streep.
-- In the past ten years, when the "Streep must win another lead actress Oscar" has really worked up steam, she has been up against another really strong contender, who has won a lot of other reputable awards, and this has led to her loss. This year, I don't think Bullock is such a candidate.

I got to say Tom is indeed 'fearless' in predicting "Inglourious Basterds" as Best Picture winner. But who is to know? It ain't over till it's over.

In the light of Tom's predictions, I also mulled over Gregory Ellwood's recent post:
Are Meryl Streep and 'Inglourious Basterds' Oscar's comeback kids?

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/2008-12-11-awards-campaign-2009/posts/are-meryl-streep-and-inglourious-basterds-oscar-s-comeback-kids

I am bemused by his suggestion that Sony pictures should take out an ad in the trade papers reminding the Academy of the past 11 Oscar snubs that Meryl has endured. They will never do it. But it will be quite a stunt!

I think it's very stupid to not include Meryl Streep in your predictions, even though Sandra won the SAG doesn't mean Meryl could take the Oscar this year....she's way overdue and the choice isn't that obvious this year. All right, Mulligan won the BAFTA (which was totally expected) but the big "race" is still between Streep and Bullock: and Meryl has already won a lot of big critics awards this season (including the Golden Globe) so you shouldn't count here out. Also, think about this: Sean Penn "only" won the SAG award last year (not the BAFTA, not the Globe) and he ended up with the Oscar in his hands...just another thing to consider.

Howdy Tom,

I'd like to understand your logic behind predicting Basterds taking Best Picture. I think that award is still headed for Bigelow's locker.

It's suprising to see that many fellow commenters believe Best Actress should go to Streep for not winning in 27 years!?! Please wise up and stop giving sympathy votes when we feel certain actor is "overdue", and focus on the current performance that's up for the award. It's this reasoning what keeps tarnishing the credibility of certain awards. Consolation prices are not needed.

As much as love Miss Streep, and I do, I feel that one day she might get nominated for being in a commercial. The media has a lot to blame for this. Personally I feel that Sidibe deserves it, but if she or Bullock take it, I will be happy either way.

However you tout yourself, but this year with your predictions, I predict that you will be in the bottom of your prediction critics..
Best Movie- Hurt Locker
Best Screenplay Original- Hurt Locker
Best Actress- Meryl Streep

I don't know why IG is even nominated for BP. What it has is two excellent scenes and one outstanding supporting performance. It should (and will) win Best Supporting Actor, but no more.

They all are sound predictions except for Best Picture. I think Avatar is most likely to take it, though it should be The Hurt Locker.

Oh look, yet another commenter saying that Avatar should win solely because it will be remembered more. Well, yes, Avatar will be remembered more. However, that will ONLY be because of the technological achievements and the publicity blitz. Nothing of other merits. A "BEST" film should incorporate ALL necessary elements of filmmaking (plus do a top notch job at all of them) for a Best Picture award. It should not go above and beyond in strictly one singular realm while half-assing the others, hoping people will ignore the shortcomings, and focus on the CGI. Nope. Not for Ferngully 2: Electric Bugaloo.

I like Meryl Streep and all, but you can't say she deserves an Oscar just because she was nominated 16 times. And she has won 2. Younger people can do anything older people can do. Remember Jennifer Hudson? Sandra is great.

And Inglorious won't win. It's going to be The Hurt Locker or Avatar.

Get off Sandra Bullock's back. Great performance. Carried the entire movie herself. Meryl Streep was only in half of "J&J". Not Meryl's greatest role or best movie. I don't believe "J&J" was nominated for best film as was "The Blindside." Meryl can play Julia Child, name another actress who could. Asking if Sandra Bullock could play Julia Child is like asking if Whoopi Goldberg could. The question is not about acting ability, but also physical features. Meryl is our best actress, but this does not mean she should win an Oscar for every nomination or to block Sandra Bullock from winning this year. Meryl has 2 Oscars and will win another I'm sure for a future acting role, and of course for lifetime achievement. I cannot believe 3 Oscars for Meryl Streep may still not be enough to satisfy some of these posters. Perhaps every year Meryl is nominated we should let her win simply because no one can hold a candle to her acting ability and talent. Give me a break.

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS is my favorite, too, Mr. O'Neil.

But it's not going to win. Too violent; too much of a "dick flick." I worry that Tarantino will never win Best Picture. Besides, HURT LOCKER is the more serious, prestigious and literary film.

WHITE RIBBON will not win for Best Foreign Language Film, no matter how much it deserves to. Those particular Academy voters won't even get THE WHITE RIBBON, much less vote for it. Too dark, too cryptic, too cold, too brutal towards women and unresolved.

Those voters want a woman-friendly film with a tidy ending, melodramatic tearjerking, sentimentalism and preferably comic relief throughout. They won't tolerate any film with excessively graphic depictions of violence.

So anything but WHITE RIBBON or THE PROPHET will win Best Foreign Language Film.

RE: Best Actress: I agree that Sandra Bullock will win and she deserves to because #1) She's never won before #2) She's the coolest, most down-to-earth and likeable person in the world #3) After a long career, she finally played characters different from HERSELF for a change in two great films this year #4) The notorious "Babe Factor." The straight, male members of the Academy would simply rather have sex with Sandra Bullock than Meryl Streep.

Yes, that's a disgusting reason to vote for someone. But that's what they do.

It's true, Meryl Streep does a better performance and it's the only one that could be described as "transformative."

But JULIA is a light, frivolous film whereas BLIND SIDE has an important social conscience.

And the Academy nominated BLIND SIDE for Best Picture to show that they really did like the film and want to honor it.

But I'll give the Meryl Fans one point -- this is the only acting race that seems truly competitive this year. Meryl has the best chance of an upset and is highly deserving.

Ihave a feeling Meryl Streep will win. and she deserves it much mch more than Sandra so great.

Are you sure about Best Leading Actress? Sorry, but Meryl Streep is the winner. Could Sandra Bullock play Julia Child (Julie&Julia)? No. Could Meryl Streep play Leigh Anne Tuohy ("The Blind Side")? Oh, yes.
Come on, she was nominated 16 times and she hasn't won an Oscar for 27 years. We all know she deserves this one. Not just because of her performance this year, but also because of her performances in the past 27 years. Let's face it: Sandra is very talented, but Meryl can do pretty much everything.. Sandra is young and she'll get there someday. Bu she's not there yet. Sandra's performance is good, true, but is it better than Meryl Streep's one? No, not at all. So, the Oscar should go to Meryl. If it doesn't, it will be really unfair. Academy Awards are supposed to be about acting skills, not campaigns. That's my opinion.

The only reason Avatar was nominated for Best Picture is to get ratings. There's no way in hell that flick is taking home any major awards in 2 weeks. Just think. If Avatar had come out of the gate strong, but lost steam after a couple of weeks, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Yes, Cameron has made a film that is visually stunning (I emphasize the word visually here). It is otherwise just another mindless action movie with paper thin characters and no originality. The box office grosses are the only reason why this movie is even being considered. Take away the grosses. You got a total dud. Any film other than Avatar & The Blind Side should have a better chance at taking home the Best Picture Oscar.

 

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