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Oscar predictions smackdown: Tom vs. Pete (the cliffhanger rematch)

March 5, 2010 | 10:58 pm

Over the years, my Envelope colleague and good friend Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season) has trounced me now and then at Academy Award predictions, but I've had a nice run lately. I beat him last year. Most recently, when predicting Oscar nominees, I edged him out. Has my luck finally run its course? Will Pete rally? Usually we disagree in just two or three categories, but this year we clash in seven contests. Who do you think has the most correct Oscar predictions?

Watch videos of me and Pete dishing the Oscars' bias against sci-fi films like "Avatar" and the question of whether or not Sandra Bullock really deserves to win best actress for "The Blind Side."


Oscars academy awards news

BEST PICTURE: "Inglourious Basterds" (Tom), "The Hurt Locker" (Pete)
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart" (Tom, Pete)
BEST ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side" (Tom, Pete)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds" (Tom, Pete)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious" (Tom, Pete)
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker" (Tom, Pete)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: "Up In The Air" (Tom, Pete)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: "Inglourious Basterds" (Tom, Pete)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Avatar" (Tom Pete)
BEST ART DIRECTION: "Avatar" (Tom, Pete)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "The Young Victoria" (Tom, Pete)
BEST FILM EDITING: "The Hurt Locker" (Tom, Pete)
BEST SOUND MIXING: "Avatar" (Pete), "The Hurt Locker" (Tom)
BEST SOUND EDITING: "Avatar" (Pete), "The Hurt Locker" (Tom)
BEST MUSIC SCORE: "Up" (Pete, Tom)
BEST SONG: "Weary Kind," "Crazy Heart" (Tom, Pete)
BEST MAKEUP: "Star Trek" (Tom, Pete)
BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS: "Avatar" (Tom, Pete)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "The Cove" (Tom, Pete)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province" (Tom), "The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant" (Pete)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "The White Ribbon" (Tom), "The Secret in Their Eyes" (Pete)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "Up"
BEST  ANIMATED SHORT: "A Matter of Loaf and Death" (Tom), "Logorama" (Pete)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: "Kavi" (Tom), "The New Tenants" (Pete)

RELATED POSTS

Oscar derby update: Surprise wins for best picture and actress?

Does an Oscar equal $100 million or $10 million?

Gold Derby nuggets: Oscars countdown | James Cameron OK with 'Avatar' Oscars spoof | Oscar gold equals box office green

Gold Derby nuggets: Sacha Baron Cohen bounced from Oscars | 'The Hurt Locker' hit by lawsuit | Michael Buble leads with six Juno noms

Gold Derby nuggets: Pete Hammond: Best actress 'down to the wire' | Oscars leading men

Oscars bar 'Hurt Locker' producer from attending ceremony

Prediction: Sandra Bullock will beat Megan Fox for the Razzie

Get drunk, win Oscar

Gold Derby nuggets: Oscars selling out ads | Sasha Stone: 'Avatar' to win | 'The Hurt Locker' also top pick for top pic

Illustration by Tom O'Neil

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Comments

For one I am a one proud worker who work at the Plant that closed...Your statment that we was nothing more then Trailer trash is rude...We were hard working men and women and the film..The Last Truck the closing of a GM plant was one great short film it just told of what life is going to be like without our jobs...I think you own each and everyone of us a Big Thank You...We are Proud....Thank you Steve and Julie for telling a story...

It looks like your misguided faith in 'Inglourious Basterds' has led you to an "inglourious defeate'.

To think that this could be Sandra Bullocks only shot shows that she is not a really good actress!
And how long will producers etc wait for an "Oscar worthy" performance of Meryl Streep? Since the "Devil wears Prada and Doubt" Oscarnomination last year, Streep should have already won this award. Streep`s problem is that she is taken for granted. Since 27 years their keep saying "Oh, she can win next year!" My question is: when will this "year" happen?

You forgot BEST ANIMATED FEATURE. Which I'll assume both of Pete and Tom are predicting UP to win.

I think Sandra Bullock will be loses to oscar, because she get worst actress and worst screen couplen at tonight, I think Gabourey Sidibe will win an oscar.

Meryl has one Oscar for Best Supporting Actress and one for Best Actress. So it's only fitting to give another Best Actress award to her for her masterful performance as Julia Child. Even though she has been nominated countless times does not mean she should wait for another Oscar win in the form of a lifetime achievement award. Her 16 nominations speaks volumes as an actress who is very good at her craft. Ms. Bullock on the other hand so far has only garnered one nomination. Yes, she starred in so-so movies such as Crash (an Oscar embarrassment of all-time) but she's also done lots of bad films as well. Mo'Nique has done (so far) one good movie (Precious) but has gotten raves for it as well and is the all around favorite to win Supporting Actress. It's sounds like someone on the other posts does not truly believe Ms. Bullock will ever get nominated again or for a very long time and/or even receive a lifetime achievement award that he feels Ms. Bullock should win over other far better performances by Streep, Mirren, Gabbie and Carey. By the look of things, Ms. Bullock is really not all that great an actress...kinda like Meg Ryan or Jennifer Aniston (yikes!). The post sounds like Ms. Bullock should win out of pity...kinda like "well Meryl has tons of nominations and 2 wins already so let Sandra win because she had no prior nominations and no Oscar wins"...really, so Boo-HOO! If the Oscars are truly all about awarding excellence, then Ms. Streep has truly earned her third win and very much deserves it! And here's a shout out for a District 9 or Up win for Best Picture...

I really hope Sandra Bullock wins the Oscar. As a huge fan, I admire what she has brought to Cinema. She has made us laugh, cry and root for her.
She has made some ordinary pictures, but she has also made "Crash" and "The Blindside", and many good comedies. I wish people would stop beating up on her. Nobody questions Monique's distastrous films like "Phat Girls," and calls her choices ordinary or subpar. Meryl Streep is arguably the best actress we have known. She will win another Oscar for a future and better role than Julia Child. She has two Oscars, and if its her amazing body of work we want to reward we can do that with a lifetime achievement Oscar...which is going to happen anyway. With Cinderella stories like Jennifer Hudson winning for her first nomination for "Dreamgirls," and now Monique's certain win for her first nomination for "Precious." I feel Sandra Bullock, has given audiences SO MUCH more than Jennifer Hudson and Monique. Sandra also has the ability to bring an Oscar caliber performance and deserves (even more so) that Cinderella moment.

The Oscars. OK, before you say anything, let me be very clear, the Oscars remain a self-promoting & self-congratulatory popularity contest within the company town of all company towns.

Now on to my predictions, not on who I would vote for or who I think did the most outstanding job, but, rather, who I think will actually take home one of those little guys -- and of, course, some pithy commentary.

2009 was a very lean year for quality commercial pictures in this country, with "Hurt Locker" and "Avatar" being the clear favs. Despite the very recent controversies on a picture that has been out for nearly a year, go with "Locker." Cameron already has one and tons of money, but due to the new way members vote this year, neither picture could win. Look for "Basterds" as an upset of upsets.

While Picture is most unpredictable this year, the others look like locks: Bigelow for directing (yes!), Bullock, Bridges, Mo'Nique & Waltz for acting, "Basterds" & "Up in the AIr" for screenplays. "The Cove" for doc, "White Ribbon" for foreign, "Star Trek" for make-up, "Victoria" for costume, "Locker" for editing, "Up" for animated & score, "Crazy Heart" for song, and "Avatar" for the remaining 5 categories.

Other than picture, the other realistic possibilities would be Streep finally getting her due as the actress of her generation in this country, but perhaps in all American cinema as well, since actors/actresses make up the largest voting block. But they are also the easiest swayed. The more recent "Prophet" could edge out the Haneke's darkness of "Ribbon" and "Locker" for screenplay.

There is no award for "Best Special Effects," which are objects photographed raw, such as puppets, models, pyrotechnic stunts, etc.

There is only an award for "Best Visual Effects," which are generated artificially in post production, like Computer Generated Imagery.

The two fields are very different art forms with different needs and expertise. Both groups get upset when you confuse one with the other.

"The White Ribbon" is a stirring, beautifully filmed movie that will snag well-deserved Foreign Film and Cinematography honors.


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