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Experts predict Tony Award nominations

April 29, 2010 |  9:57 am

There's a lot of drama surrounding the Tony Award nominations, which will be unveiled Tuesday. Take, for example, the battle over best musical. The pundits cited below are split over eight contenders to take those four category slots. "American Idiot" is the favorite to win, but an upset is possible. The biggest drama of all is over best drama — there's no clear front-runner.

We've recruited predix from a team of savvy prognosticators: Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), Martin Denton (NYTheatre), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Andy Humm (Gay City News, Gay USA), Kenneth Jones (Playbill.com), Brian Lipton (Theater Mania), Patrick Pacheco (L.A. Times, NY1), Paul Sheehan (TheEnvelope.com), David Sheward (Back Stage), Matt Windman (amNY) and me.

American Idiot Broadway Tonys Tony Awards nominations news 2

BEST PLAY
"A Behanding in Spokane" — Geier, Humm
"Enron" — Bernardo, Denton, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward
"In the Next Room or the Vibrator Play" — Humm, Windman
"Next Fall" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Race" — Denton, Jones, O'Neil, Sheward
"Red" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Time Stands Still" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman

BEST MUSICAL
"The Addams Family" — Jones, Sheward
"American Idiot" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Come Fly Away" — Bernardo, Geier, Windman
"Everyday Rapture" — Lipton, Pacheco
"Fela!" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Memphis" — Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Million Dollar Quartet" — Bernardo, Denton, Humm, Sheehan
"Sondheim on Sondheim" — O'Neil, Humm

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
"A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Collected Stories" -- Humm
"Fences" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Hamlet" — Bernardo, Humm
"Lend Me a Tenor" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"The Royal Family" — Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
"A Little Night Music" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Finian’s Rainbow" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"La Cage Aux Folles" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier,Humm,  Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Ragtime" — Bernardo, Humm
"Promises, Promises" — Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
John Gallagher Jr., "American Idiot" — Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Kelsey Grammer, "La Cage aux Folles" — Denton, Jones
Sean Hayes, "Promises, Promises" — Bernardo, Geier, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
Douglas Hodge, "La Cage Aux Folles" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Chad Kimball, "Memphis" — Bernardo, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Nathan Lane, "The Addams Family" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheward
Sahr Nguajah, "Fela!" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Kate Baldwin, "Finian’s Rainbow" — Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Kristin Chenoweth, "Promises, Promises" — Bernardo, Humm, O'Neil
Montego Glover, "Memphis" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Bebe Neuwirth, "The Addams Family" — Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheward, Windman
Christine Noll, "Ragtime" -- Bernardo, Denton
Sherie Rene Scott, "Everyday Rapture" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Catherine Zeta-Jones, "A Little Night Music" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Kevin Chamberlin, "The Addams Family" — Denton, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Robin De Jesus, "La Cage Aux Folles" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Christopher Fitzgerald, "Finian's Rainbow" — Humm, Jones, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Levi Kreis, "Million Dollar Quartet" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheward, Windman
Charlie Neshyba-Hodges, "Come Fly Away" — Bernardo, Geier, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward
Jim Norton, "Finian's Rainbow" — Humm, Jones
John Selya, "Come Fly Away" — Denton
Stark Sands, "American Idiot" — Humm, O'Neil
Bobby Steggert, "Ragtime" — Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
Tony Vincent, "American Idiot" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Barbara Cook, "Sondheim on Sondheim" -- Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Katie Finneran, "Promises, Promises" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Rebecca Naomi Jones, "American Idiot" — Geier, O'Neil, Windman
Angela Lansbury, "A Little Night Music" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Karine Plantadit, "Come Fly Away" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheward
Lillias White, "Fela!" — Bernardo, Denton, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Terri White, "Finian’s Rainbow" — Denton, Humm, Jones, Pacheco

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Patrick Breen, "Next Fall" -- Pacheco
Norbert Leo Butz, "Enron" — O'Neil
Daniel Craig, "A Steady Rain" — Jones
Hugh Jackman, "A Steady Rain" — Jones, Sheward
Jude Law, "Hamlet" — Bernardo, Geier, Sheehan
Alfred Molina, "Red" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Liev Schreiber, "A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Tony Shalhoub, "Lend Me a Tenor" — Humm, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
James Spader, "Race" — Denton
Christopher Walken, "A Behanding in Spokane" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Denzel Washington, "Fences" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Laura Benanti, "In the Next Room, or the Vibrator Play" — Humm, O'Neil
Viola Davis, "Fences" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Carrie Fisher, "Wishful Drinking" — Denton, Humm, Jones, Pacheco, Windman
Valerie Harper, "Looped" — Bernardo, Geier, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Linda Lavin, "Collected Stories" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Laura Linney, "Time Stands Still" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Jan Maxwell, "The Royal Family" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Lipton, Sheehan, Sheward

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Eric Bogosian, "Time Stands Still" — Humm, Jones
Chris Chalk, "Fences" — Denton
Michael Cristofer, "A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Geier, Jones, Sheehan, Sheward, O'Neil
Jon Michael Hill, "Superior Donuts" — Geier, Jones, Humm, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Brian d'Arcy James, "Time Stands Still" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Windman
Stephen McKinley Henderson, "Fences" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Sheehan, Windman
Stephen Kunken, "Enron" — Bernardo, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan
Eddie Redmayne, "Red" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Tony Roberts, "The Royal Family" — Denton
Reg Rogers, "The Royal Family" — Sheward
Mykelti Williamson, "Fences" — Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheward, Windman

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Rosemary Harris, "The Royal Family" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Jessica Hecht, "A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Scarlett Johansson, "A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Zoe Kazan, "A Behanding in Spokane" — Denton
Jan Maxwell, "Lend Me a Tenor" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
Marrin Mazzie, "Enron" — Bernardo, Pacheco, O'Neil, Sheehan
Sarah Paulsen, "Collected Stories" — Humm, Jones
Connie Ray, "Next Fall" — Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheward, Windman
Alicia Silverstone, "Time Stands Still" — Denton, Geier, Humm
Kerry Washington, "Race" — Sheward

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Christopher Ashley, "Memphis" — Denton, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
Marcia Milgrom Dodge, "Ragtime" — Bernardo, Jones
Bill T. Jones, "Fela!" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Terry Johnson, "La Cage Aux Folles" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
James Lapine, "Sondheim on Sondheim" — Bernardo, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward
Michael Mayer, "American Idiot" — Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Trevor Nunn, "A Little Night Music" -- Geier, Humm
Twyla Tharp, "Come Fly Away" -- Geier

BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Rupert Goold, "Enron" — Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan
Michael Grandage, "Red" — Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Pacheco, Windman
Doug Hughes, "The Royal Family" — Sheward
Sheryl Kaller, "Next Fall" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Jones, O'Neil, Sheehan
Kenny Leon, "Fences" — Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Gregory Mosher, "A View from the Bridge" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
Daniel Sullivan, "Time Stands Still" — Denton, Humm, Jones
Stanley Tucci, "Lend Me a Tenor" — Denton, Geier, Lipton, O'Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

BEST MUSICAL SCORE
"Memphis" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"The Addams Family" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Enron" — Lipton, O'Neil, Sheehan, Windman
"Fences" — Bernardo, Geier, Humm, Lipton, O'Neil, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
"The Royal Family" — Humm, Jones

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
"The Addams Family" — Geier, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheward
"American Idiot" — Denton, Humm
"Everyday Rapture" -- Bernardo, Geier, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Windman
"Fela!" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Memphis" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Jones, Lipton, Pacheco, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman
"Million Dollar Quartet" — Bernardo, Denton, Geier, Humm, Lipton, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman

Photo credit: Playbill

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