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Emmy predix: Best TV drama actress

April 14, 2010 |  1:13 pm

Our resident Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) agree on four of the six stars who'll be nominated for best drama actress: Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"), January Jones ("Mad Men"), recent Golden Globes and SAG Awards champ Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") and Glenn Close ("Damages"), who's gone undefeated in this Emmy race for the past two years.

For the final two slots, Boomer picks Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU") and Melissa Leo ("Treme"), while Rob opts for Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters") and Anna Paquin ("True Blood"). Hargitay and Field are perennial nominees, so it'd be surprising to see either of them missing from the next category lineup. Nearly all Emmy gurus believed Paquin would reap a nom last year, especially since the Oscar champ ("The Piano") has been nommed by the TV academy in the past ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee") and this Emmy category had just been expanded from five nominees to six. But Paquin got skunked, probably because of voters' bias against vampire fare. (Sarah Michelle Gellar was never nommed for "Buffy the Vampire Slayer.")

The Good Wife Juliana Margulies Glenn Close Damages TV news

It's interesting that Boomer and Rob agree on the addition of Jones, who's been snubbed by Emmy voters in the past despite being nominated in the lead race at the Golden Globes. To boost Jones' odds, costar Elisabeth Moss (nommed last year) graciously just dropped down to supporting.

Rob and Boomer also agree on who's out front to win. They both rank Close first to prevail in this category for a third year in a row (Close also won an Emmy in 1995 for appearing in TV flick "Serving in Silence: The Margarethe Cammermeyer Story") while ranking Margulies in second place.

Check out Boomer's and Rob's other early predix in these races: lead drama actor, best drama series, and best comedy series.


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Glenn Close ("Damages")
2. Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife")
3. Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
4. Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters")
5. January Jones ("Mad Men")
6. Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

Alternates: Jeanne Tripplehorn ("Big Love"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I am pretty comfortable with this lineup, with question marks on January Jones (only because she has failed at the last two attempts, and last year she was almost seen as a fait accompli) and Anna Paquin, who might capitalize on the white-hot fever pitch buzz for "True Blood" at the moment.

Jeanne Tripplehorn might upset, although she wasn't given as much to do this time around as last season (when she was snubbed). Typically, however, we might see the return of old faithfuls like Mariska Hargitay or even Holly Hunter.

We are still not sure about where the "Parenthood" cast will submit, so perennial Emmy snubee Lauren Graham remains on the sidelines for now.


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Glenn Close ("Damages")
2. Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife")
3. Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
4. Melissa Leo ("Treme")
5. Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
6. January Jones ("Mad Men")

Alternates -- Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Certainly last year's winner, Glenn Close, is an extremely safe bet for a nomination, but for the actual win, we have a serious competitor this time in previous Emmy winner Julianna Margulies (this year's champ at the Globes and SAGs).  Kyra Segwick continues to offer strong work on her show, so she will be nominated again.

After that, I think one of last year's Oscar nominees (Melissa Leo) will benefit from that enhanced name recognition and solid reviews on her new show, "Treme." I would enjoy seeing the voters finally bypass Mariska Hargitay after several consecutive nominations but honestly don't think they will.  January Jones got a big assist from a move to the supporting category by co-star Elisabeth Moss (one of last year's nominees in this category).  Holly Hunter is always a threat, but I really don't know how people can even sit through a viewing of her awful show.  I just can't quite figure out Anna Paquin with the Emmy voters, but she certainly has a legitimate shot.

Photos: Julianna Margulies in "The Good Wife" (CBS), Glenn Close winning Emmy last year (Associated Press)

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