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Emmy predix: Best TV drama actress

April 14, 2010 |  1:13 pm

Our resident Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) agree on four of the six stars who'll be nominated for best drama actress: Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"), January Jones ("Mad Men"), recent Golden Globes and SAG Awards champ Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") and Glenn Close ("Damages"), who's gone undefeated in this Emmy race for the past two years.

For the final two slots, Boomer picks Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU") and Melissa Leo ("Treme"), while Rob opts for Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters") and Anna Paquin ("True Blood"). Hargitay and Field are perennial nominees, so it'd be surprising to see either of them missing from the next category lineup. Nearly all Emmy gurus believed Paquin would reap a nom last year, especially since the Oscar champ ("The Piano") has been nommed by the TV academy in the past ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee") and this Emmy category had just been expanded from five nominees to six. But Paquin got skunked, probably because of voters' bias against vampire fare. (Sarah Michelle Gellar was never nommed for "Buffy the Vampire Slayer.")

The Good Wife Juliana Margulies Glenn Close Damages TV news

It's interesting that Boomer and Rob agree on the addition of Jones, who's been snubbed by Emmy voters in the past despite being nominated in the lead race at the Golden Globes. To boost Jones' odds, costar Elisabeth Moss (nommed last year) graciously just dropped down to supporting.

Rob and Boomer also agree on who's out front to win. They both rank Close first to prevail in this category for a third year in a row (Close also won an Emmy in 1995 for appearing in TV flick "Serving in Silence: The Margarethe Cammermeyer Story") while ranking Margulies in second place.

Check out Boomer's and Rob's other early predix in these races: lead drama actor, best drama series, and best comedy series.


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Glenn Close ("Damages")
2. Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife")
3. Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
4. Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters")
5. January Jones ("Mad Men")
6. Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

Alternates: Jeanne Tripplehorn ("Big Love"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I am pretty comfortable with this lineup, with question marks on January Jones (only because she has failed at the last two attempts, and last year she was almost seen as a fait accompli) and Anna Paquin, who might capitalize on the white-hot fever pitch buzz for "True Blood" at the moment.

Jeanne Tripplehorn might upset, although she wasn't given as much to do this time around as last season (when she was snubbed). Typically, however, we might see the return of old faithfuls like Mariska Hargitay or even Holly Hunter.

We are still not sure about where the "Parenthood" cast will submit, so perennial Emmy snubee Lauren Graham remains on the sidelines for now.


BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Glenn Close ("Damages")
2. Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife")
3. Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
4. Melissa Leo ("Treme")
5. Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
6. January Jones ("Mad Men")

Alternates -- Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Certainly last year's winner, Glenn Close, is an extremely safe bet for a nomination, but for the actual win, we have a serious competitor this time in previous Emmy winner Julianna Margulies (this year's champ at the Globes and SAGs).  Kyra Segwick continues to offer strong work on her show, so she will be nominated again.

After that, I think one of last year's Oscar nominees (Melissa Leo) will benefit from that enhanced name recognition and solid reviews on her new show, "Treme." I would enjoy seeing the voters finally bypass Mariska Hargitay after several consecutive nominations but honestly don't think they will.  January Jones got a big assist from a move to the supporting category by co-star Elisabeth Moss (one of last year's nominees in this category).  Holly Hunter is always a threat, but I really don't know how people can even sit through a viewing of her awful show.  I just can't quite figure out Anna Paquin with the Emmy voters, but she certainly has a legitimate shot.

Photos: Julianna Margulies in "The Good Wife" (CBS), Glenn Close winning Emmy last year (Associated Press)

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Comments

I hope January Jones is nominated too but I think Julianna Margulies will win.

Anna Gunn is in the supporting category, not in lead.

It's too bad Anna Gunn isn't on the Emmy radar, she's absolutely astonishing this season Breaking Bad (it's largely her incredible work that made the last scene in "I.F.T." so devastating). Who knows, though, maybe she could break in ala Aaron Paul last year. I don't think she'd win, but it would be nice to see a nomination.

As for the othes, I'm a Close supporter all the way. She's won two statues already, and I think it would be just marvelous to see her take home the gold for all three seasons of the show (assuming this is the last season). However, I'm feeling a Margulies win, owing largely to the fact that Close HAS won twice already, and Margulies's show is on fire, awards-wise. Still, it's not likely that The Good Wife will be nominated for Best Drama, and Damages is almost a shoo-in there, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Close take home a third, highly deserving Emmy.

Jones is a marvel on "Mad Men". She should be nominated here and if I were a voter, I'd throw my support to her.

Sedgwick is long overdue.

I'd also like to see Regina King (Southland) and Jada Pinkett-Smith (HawthoRNe) thrown into the ring.

i couldn't disagree more Graham, you could replace Jones with a department store mannequin and get a better performance!

Not to mention she did the worst hosting job in SNL history last year.

I have to chalk up all of the anti-January Jones bias on the net to her character being utterly unsympathetic. Jones has never impressed me as an actress in her other work, but she was absolutely dynamite in the third season of Mad Men. Her character had a pivotal role in this season's arc and Jones has a quite a few Emmy-worthy tapes. I would like to see her nominated...

But I would love to see Glenn Close win for this (final) season of Damages. Her work has been absolutely devastating this year as a woman whose life is completely unraveling. Two seasons ago, she was a shrewd manipulator capable of almost anything. This year, she's no longer in control, she's no longer omnipresent and is frequently surprised by the machinations around her. Close's choices have been excellent and it's been great fun watching her deconstruct her Patty Hewes character.

I agree with this article... It's Close vs. Margulies this year.

Although in previous seasons January Jones failed to impress me (maybe I was adverse to her character), she was utterly awesome this season of Mad Men. Hewr confrontations with Don were fantastic - so conflicted by both hating him and feeling pity for him as his true story begins to unravel before her. I really hope she is nominated. I have a feeling Julianna Margulies will win, but if January does, I will be so very happy.

I think Mariska Hargitay should be snubbed this year. I feel like she's hasn't done anything good recently. I personally think that Anna Paquin should win this year, but I think Emmy voters will award Julianna Margulies amazing work. Also I think January Jones isn't really Lead Actress. I think she would have a better shot in the supporting race.

they wouldn't seriously nominate Jones I hope, she is the worst thing about Mad Men! She doesn't even come across as human let alone a decent actress.


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