Judging from a historical perspective, Connie Britton and Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost") and January Jones ("Mad Men") are long shots to win Emmys, according to our contributor Chris "cking33" Hine. He sent an alert to Gold Derby noting that these stars scored their first nominations in the middle or end of their shows' runs and adds:
Never has an actor received a nomination under such circumstances and won. Winners have always either:
1. Been nominated before and
2. Won for the first year of their show.
Even James Spader, while he was nominated and won for the final year of "The Practice," that was his first year on the show, so it doesn't exactly fit the criteria. And even after he won in 2007, after not being nominated in 2006, he was still a two-time winner. You'd have to double-check the facts on this, but I thought it was interesting, and would seem to
suggest that the above four actors and actresses have no chance of winning this year. Mariska Hargitay came close to doing it in 2004, had all the momentum, but then Allison Janney won again (and then proceeded to embarrass poor Mariska by bringing her onstage during her acceptance speech).
Chris posted similar views here in our forums and invites additional comment.
Photo: "Friday Night Lights." Credit: NBC / DirecTV.