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Grammy predix for best new artist: Justin Bieber, Drake and ...?

October 14, 2010 | 11:28 am

Our resident Grammy seers Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and David "Guru" Schnelwar agree on three of the five nominees for best new artist: Justin Bieber, Drake and Florence and the Machine. Dortch opts for Janelle Monae and Mumford & Sons for the fourth and fifth slots; Schnelwar prefers Jason Derulo and Ke$ha.

Justin Bieber news

Personally, I think Ke$ha is a good pick. I even believe Adam Lambert has a shot even though both pundits knock him down to long-shot status. I know, I know, "American Idol" stars don't do well here. Only Carrie Underwood has managed to break through for a nomination (she won in 2007), but Lambert has street cred. Too bad Susan Boyle doesn't. She certainly deserves a spot more than Vampire Weekend.

You can see how Dortch and Schnelwar handicap the race for best record of the year here.

Justin Bieber
Jason Derulo
Florence and the Machine

Susan Boyle
Janelle Monae
Mumford & Sons
The Script

(Long shots)
Taio Cruz
Adam Lambert
La Roux
Neon Trees
Vampire Weekend

SCHNELWAR'S COMMENTARY: The Grammys do not discriminate against teen pop for best new artist.  Previous nominees have been Hanson (1997), the Backstreet Boys (1998) and the Jonas Brothers (2008).  Justin Bieber won the MTV Video Music Award for best new artist and is likely to be nominated in the same category at the Grammys.

It is hard to turn on Top 40 radio and not hear one of the multiple hits from Ke$ha or Jason Derulo. Other Top 40 possibilities are B.O.B., Taio Cruz, La Roux and Adam Lambert.

The Grammys changed their best-new-artist rules, giving a second chance to Drake, Janelle Monae, the Script and Vampire Weekend to compete. 

Florence  and the Machine  is likely to be the lone representative of rock.  Other possibilities for rock are Mumford & Sons and Neon Trees.

Susan Boyle dominated the Billboard Top 200 Album Chart for the last quarter of 2009.  She is possible, but not guaranteed.

Nicki Minaj and Bruno Mars seem not to be eligible this year and are likely to carry over to next year.

Justin Bieber
Florence and the Machine
Janelle Monae
Mumford & Sons

La Roux
Luke Bryan
Vampire Weekend

(Long shots)
Susan Boyle
Kid Cudi
Melanie Fiona
Adam Lambert
Neon Trees
V.V. Brown
Chris Young

DORTCH'S COMMENTARY: NARAS usually likes to throw a random nominee or two in this category (see last year's Silversun Pickups for proof). However, this year is very competitive and I doubt we will see any unrecognizable artists in this field.

The industry wants to celebrate acts who've sold well this year, so look for Justin Bieber and Drake to get in easily. Voters love female acts in this race, so look for Florence and the Machine to steal a spot since her recent VMA performance put her on the map with U.S. performers.

Industry execs are touting the chances of B.O.B. and Mumford & Sons, so I'll go with the latter since they are seen as a more serious artist. However, don't be surprised if Ke$ha, who has a platinum album and four Top 10 hits this eligibility period, steals a spot. And Janelle Monae has the most critically acclaimed album of the year and could win the whole thing if voters look past her lack of commercial success.

Photo: Justin Bieber performs on June 24 in Trenton, N.J. Credit: Stephen Lovekin / Getty Images

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The comments to this entry are closed.


I think based on voice and album quality, Charice Pempengco deserves a Grammy in 2011. No smoke and mirrors, just pure talent. Bruno Mars is another one who deserves one in 2012 too.


EXCUSE ME!! That word was "PREDICT" in my previous post!!

IMO ... I think the LA Times should get some NEW seers ... the ones they have predicting the Grammy lists for this year are so skewed I'm not even sure they have the ability to hear/see much less PRDICT!! Sorry guys ... you need NEW SEERS!! Where did they come up with these horrid lists??

I thought the Grammys, specifically the Grammys, didn't play to the tween set, or at least didn't overly concern themselves with playing to the tween and teen crowd? I thought the Grammys were about talent, and were proud of that legacy? Truly, I am not being snarky, I thought this was the case. I guess we shall see. And Jason Derulo, really, really?????

If Adam don't take any award , you'll lose your credibility as American Idol did
think about it

Adam Lambert wont be nominated or win any Grammys. His recent Malaysia trip and the AMAs will be fresh on the mind of Academy voters (many of whom were in the audience of his unfortunate AMA debut performance). Being the first openly gay pop artist signed to a major label is still a major problem for him. It is still a hot button. (No, you cant count Elton John, George Michaels, Boy George and others because they didn't "come out" until much later in their careers).

While I (and many other fans) think he is the most talented musical artist in the industry today, Im afraid he will become the Susan Lucci of the music world. The recent snub at the MTV Video Awards should give us a clear indication of what lay ahead for Adam when it comes to peer recognition.

Its a real shame too, because "For Your Entertainment" is an absolute timeless album worthy of many awards.

Adam Lambert wont be nominated or win any Grammys. Not because he's not talented. Its because people are afraid of being associated with him and he does not fit into the Academy's award-winning mold.

Lets face it. He turned off a lot of people this last year. His recent Malaysia trip and the AMAs will be fresh on the mind of Academy voters (many of whom were in the audience of his unfortunate AMA debut performance). Being the first openly gay pop artist signed to a major label is still a major problem for him. It is still a hot button. (No, you cant count Elton John, George Michaels, Boy George and others because they didn't "come out" until much later in their careers).

While I (and many other fans) think he is the most talented musical artist in the industry today, I'm afraid he will become the Susan Lucci of the music world. The recent snub at the MTV Video Awards should give us a clear indication of what lay ahead for Adam when it comes to peer recognition.

Its a real shame too, because "For Your Entertainment" is an absolute timeless album worthy of many awards. And Adam Lambert is a brilliant showman.

Don't know who Schnelwar & Dortch are (and quite frankly don't really care) but it is obvious that whoever compiled this list certainly knows NOTHING about true talent or BOTH lists would have been headed by ADAM LAMBERT!! 'Nuff said!!

These music award shows are a disgrace not to mention they can't even recognize talent when it slaps them in the face. Adam Lambert's vocals are superior to most of those on the list if not all of them. He is still being crucified for what he did on the AMA's, and by god they are not going to let him forget it! Plus, don't tell me it has nothing to with the fact that he is gay!! Sad to say we live in a backward and bigoted counry and that is probably why the music exec's are afraid of nominating Adam!!!! They are afraid there might be some backlash.

WTF? Jason Deurolo and Kesha. What the hell is wrong with these people. Jason sucks and he has not sell as much records as Adam Lambert ,actually not even close. This has to be a joke, right. Why dont america apprecitae real talent when they see it. Adam is loved everywhere in the world, welcomed,and honored, except for the american so called big music executives. I dont get it. Is it beacuse he is gay or he is too talented that they dont get him. I dont know, but grammys better come serious and put him on this list or nominate him or sh***t is going down. Dont be blinded by mirages, go for the real thing, the real deal and thats ADAM F. Lambert.

His prestige in the eyes and the hearts of his fans is his award.Yes 'I' am a Glambert! If what I have just read in all of these posts is not enough to open a bigots mind, so be it. I am sad for those that will not be given the chance to know Adam Lambert as the true talent among all of the above mentioned.

To sit there and say that Florence WELCH does not have talent is the most idiotic thing I think I've read. Have you HEARD her sing live? Shes excellent. She has an amazing voice, and her songs are quite entertaining. She won the BRIT critics choice, which was won by Adele who won best new artist, so I think her chances of taking home the award are high. Let's not forget her breaking into the US with performances on the VMAs, which the critical praise was astounding, Dancing with the Stars, and the Ellen show. Would you rather Justin BIEBER take home the award? or DRAKE? THE WHEELCHAIR KID FROM DEGRASSI?!!! Florence deserves it, just like Adele deserved it.

Let's hope the Grammy voters remember it is supposed to be about VOICE. Not so long ago, they forgot that and handed a Grammy to Milli Vanili, whose voices WEREN'T EVEN ON THE RECORDING -- they were lipsynching. You would think that after an embarassment like that, the Grammy people would make sure that it IS all about the artist's VOICE and nominate/vote accordingly. Unfortunately, it seems they'll choose to go down the money path again instead of the talent path and feign surprise at another EPIC FAIL.

Wait. Your lists are missing the most important entry. Antares Audio Technologies and Andy Hildebrand, creator of the Auto Tune that saved the hides of all the people on these lists and their producers. Not including Adam Lambert who can sing circles around every single one of them on his worst day, with a cold, in a coma, or sleeping.

Ridiculous. Lambert outcharted several of these people (some whom I never even heard of). The Script? Really? LOL. You "Experts" don't even know what you're talking about. They had a 2008 album that charted 64 on BB100 versus Lambert's 2009 [ACTUALLY "NEW") BB100 #3, His two singles charted Top 40 radio at #10 and #16 not to mention also HAC and AC. While The Script had one song in 2008 reach 12. Not to even mention some of the OTHERS on your "lists". His album is platinum in several countries and Gold nearly Platinum in US while The Script didn't even get Gold in the US. eyeroll. MOMFORD & SONS??? YOU'RE KIDDING ME RIGHT? These people making the lists must be UK elitists.

I totally agree with @Angel. There should be, 'Most Popular','Most Hyped',and 'Most Overrated',categories to fill the bill for the majority of artists listed. To place a few of them under "Best" is simply undermining the criteria that determines 'best'. None of these artists are in the same league as Adam Lambert,vocally. Charismatically, they don't have a chance either. You either have charisma,or you don't.....Adam is a walking talking breathing vision of charisma....he IS charisma!!

If the Grammys wish to be viewed as the 'exceptional' music awards show,then Adam should make it to the list,at least in one category. If they are like all the other vapid,money = talent,you-don't-have-to-sing-well-to-be-nominated awards show,then he probably won't make the list.

It's probably a good time for another awards show to be created.
It would be driven on the principle of true raw talent as the bottom-line,not money.Unfortunately,not too many of the artists listed would stand a chance!!!

When this appeared in my google alerts, I thought that adam lambert was surely one of the nominated ones. Then I clicked, and when I saw his name on the long shots list, I wondered why, and I'm still unable to understand why. If you talk about talent and vocals, he's no doubt the best one in the entire list. No, I'm not saying the rest of them can't sing, it's just that his voice is so much more extraordinary, and that's an undeniable fact.

I really don't understand how adam can be under long shots. Seriously? Then it's not a matter of talent anymore. When it comes to talent, he wins hands down. Yes, Justin Bieber is famous, I know, and he can sing pretty well, but adam is so much more outstanding and talented and stuff. I don't think it's really suitable to put him at the bottom of the list. Take a look at the long shots list. Really, look at the two lists. His name is glaringly out of place. His name screams talent and glam and big star. His name there, under the long shots list, is just plain insulting to summarize it into one single word. Yes, insulting.

Shouldn't the Grammy's add a Most Popular New Artist category? That way they can still shed plenty of limelight on passing hot sensations with lowgrade talent like the Biebers & Jonas Brothers of the world and,at the same time, open themselves less to ridicule and charges of dishonesty. The term "Best" in Best New Artist should be meaningful, and this year that has as to mean either Adam Lambert or Janelle Monae. Let's have at least one major award lend its prestige for quality over quantity. What's the point of the redundancy behind having autotuner teen faves grab everything?

It just doesn't make sense that Adam Lambert would not be nominated for "Best New Artist". There is no comparison when it comes to Adam's vocal ability to Justin's and that is the truth. If Justin Bieber is nominated, then surely it's not for talented vocals but for $ELLING a lot of downloads,etc. and if that is what turns on the voters, then music is surely Dead!

The Industry is crazy not to recognize an artist like Adam who has vocals with octaves that not many singers have and Adam is thrilling to hear Live. But let's see if the Industry chooses to nominate Money over Talent. The Industry nominated Barbra Streisand 56 times and she won 8 times. Adam's voice is certainly on par with Barbra's!

ADAM is the BEST ... and should WIN a GRAMMY ... but ADAM doesn't get the recognition he deserves in America!!! WHY?? I don't have the answer to that question ... it's certainly NOT because of his TALENT!! ADAM can PERFORM & SING "CIRCLES" around most if not ALL of the artists being considered. WHY isn't that ENOUGH??

I may be wrong but I do believe that Jennifer Hudson also got a Grammy even though she didn't win when she was on American Idol. Not only Carrie Underwood ... just saying

I really don't think these award shows really honor real talent. They seem to be nothing more than a corporate pat on the back to those who made big bucks for them & since we seem to be rewarding mediocrity with the use of auto-tune & a catchy tune, I don't expect to see any nom for Adam Lambert. Since music is subjective anyway, I guess they can have their reasons for why they nominate some & not others. All I know, out of all of these names, I have Adam's cd as well as downloads & I have 4 of Jonelle Monae's tunes. Won't bother watching to find out who wins or loses, tho.

The 5 "Best New Artist" Grammy nominees will be all the usual suspects. Look at the list of people nominated for "Breakthrough Artist" by the American Music Awards, pick 5 of those and there you have your Grammy nominees. Even MTV went with the "obvious" choices at the Music Video Awards.
Lambert is being mobbed and greeted with "mass hysteria" (a reporter on the scene's words, not mine) while touring overseas right now. The reaction is practically identical to the way Elvis was received in his hey day...but oh yeah, Elvis didn't fare very well with the Grammy's either. Don't expect things to be any different for Lambert.

So this is all about who sells? What about talent? What about singing, or being innovative or unique? What about performing and not lip-synching your way into teenage dreams? This is sad. I'd go with Janelle and Adam from this pack. Can Kesha actually sing? Yes Janelle has a great album, and Adam has more talent and charisma in his pinky than most artists can ever dream of. Shouldn't the so called experts look past the superficial and make some real judgments in this category? Geez.




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