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Grammy predix for best new artist: Justin Bieber, Drake and ...?

October 14, 2010 | 11:28 am

Our resident Grammy seers Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and David "Guru" Schnelwar agree on three of the five nominees for best new artist: Justin Bieber, Drake and Florence and the Machine. Dortch opts for Janelle Monae and Mumford & Sons for the fourth and fifth slots; Schnelwar prefers Jason Derulo and Ke$ha.

Justin Bieber news

Personally, I think Ke$ha is a good pick. I even believe Adam Lambert has a shot even though both pundits knock him down to long-shot status. I know, I know, "American Idol" stars don't do well here. Only Carrie Underwood has managed to break through for a nomination (she won in 2007), but Lambert has street cred. Too bad Susan Boyle doesn't. She certainly deserves a spot more than Vampire Weekend.

You can see how Dortch and Schnelwar handicap the race for best record of the year here.

BEST NEW ARTIST: SCHNELWAR'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
Justin Bieber
Jason Derulo
Drake
Florence and the Machine
Ke$ha

(Possible)
B.O.B.
Susan Boyle
Janelle Monae
Mumford & Sons
The Script

(Long shots)
Taio Cruz
Adam Lambert
La Roux
Neon Trees
Vampire Weekend

SCHNELWAR'S COMMENTARY: The Grammys do not discriminate against teen pop for best new artist.  Previous nominees have been Hanson (1997), the Backstreet Boys (1998) and the Jonas Brothers (2008).  Justin Bieber won the MTV Video Music Award for best new artist and is likely to be nominated in the same category at the Grammys.

It is hard to turn on Top 40 radio and not hear one of the multiple hits from Ke$ha or Jason Derulo. Other Top 40 possibilities are B.O.B., Taio Cruz, La Roux and Adam Lambert.

The Grammys changed their best-new-artist rules, giving a second chance to Drake, Janelle Monae, the Script and Vampire Weekend to compete. 

Florence  and the Machine  is likely to be the lone representative of rock.  Other possibilities for rock are Mumford & Sons and Neon Trees.

Susan Boyle dominated the Billboard Top 200 Album Chart for the last quarter of 2009.  She is possible, but not guaranteed.

Nicki Minaj and Bruno Mars seem not to be eligible this year and are likely to carry over to next year.

BEST NEW ARTIST: DORTCH'S PREDIX
(Front-runners)
Justin Bieber
Drake
Florence and the Machine
Janelle Monae
Mumford & Sons

(Possible)
B.O.B.
La Roux
Luke Bryan
Vampire Weekend

(Long shots)
Susan Boyle
Kid Cudi
Melanie Fiona
Adam Lambert
Neon Trees
V.V. Brown
Chris Young

DORTCH'S COMMENTARY: NARAS usually likes to throw a random nominee or two in this category (see last year's Silversun Pickups for proof). However, this year is very competitive and I doubt we will see any unrecognizable artists in this field.

The industry wants to celebrate acts who've sold well this year, so look for Justin Bieber and Drake to get in easily. Voters love female acts in this race, so look for Florence and the Machine to steal a spot since her recent VMA performance put her on the map with U.S. performers.

Industry execs are touting the chances of B.O.B. and Mumford & Sons, so I'll go with the latter since they are seen as a more serious artist. However, don't be surprised if Ke$ha, who has a platinum album and four Top 10 hits this eligibility period, steals a spot. And Janelle Monae has the most critically acclaimed album of the year and could win the whole thing if voters look past her lack of commercial success.

Photo: Justin Bieber performs on June 24 in Trenton, N.J. Credit: Stephen Lovekin / Getty Images

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