That big National Board of Review victory today by "Slumdog Millionaire" means Heath Ledger is no longer a slam dunk to win the Oscar for best supporting actor.

If I and other Oscarologists are right and "Slumdog" wins the top Academy Award, remember this: Best picture champ usually takes an acting award. Often it's in a lead race (Hilary Swank in "Million Dollar Baby," Russell Crowe in "Gladiator"), but supporting will do just fine (Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men," Catherine Zeta-Jones in "Chicago"). Supporting is where Fox Searchlight places "Slumdog Millionaire" star Dev Patel in the derby.

Maybe Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") was always a long shot to win. Only one actor has ever claimed an Oscar from the grave, and Peter Finch ("Network") may have beaten the odds because he died just weeks before the Oscar ceremony. Voters were still smarting from his loss while deciding who'd win awards. Not so in the case of posthumous nominee Spencer Tracy ("Guess Who's Coming to Dinner"), who, like Ledger, died more than six months before Oscar night. Tracy was widely expected to win best actor of 1967, but he lost to Rod Steiger ("In the Heat of the Night").

Heath Ledger bears a striking similarity to James Dean. Both were heartthrob thespians whose promising careers were cut short by tragedy. Dean had two posthumous Oscar nominations. The first — for "East of Eden" — came nearly half a year after Dean died in a car wreck. The next year he was nommed for "Giant," and he lost both times.

When Oscar nominations come out in January, Ledger will have been dead a year. Will that matter? 

Photos: Fox Searchlight, Warner Bros.

• Two potential best actor Oscar nominees — Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon") and Will Smith ("Seven Pounds") — as well as improbable best song Oscar nominee Miley Cyrus, possible Razzie acting nominee Tom Cruise ("Valkyrie") and Emmy darling Tina Fey ("30 Rock") are among those who fascinated Barbara Walters enough to make her top 10 list. Rounding out the roster are Olympic champ Michael Phelps, VP also-ran Gov. Sarah Palin, talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh, and man-turned-mother Thomas Beatie. And the No. 1 pick to be revealed on tonight's ABC special — almost certainly President-elect Barack Obama.

• Envelope colleague Pete Hammond offers a fascinating look at the decision-making process behind category placement for actors at the Oscars. He focuses on the debate about whether Kate Winslet should go lead or supporting for "The Reader" as well as the reasoning underlying Philip Seymour Hoffman being put forward as a supporting player for his leading role in "Doubt." Notes on a Season

• Allison Waldman of TV Squad reports on the newest inductees into the TV academy's Hall of Fame -- star Bea Arthur ("Maude," "The Golden Girls"), writer Larry Gelbart ("M*A*S*H*"), talker and game show pioneer Merv Griffin, creator Sherwood Schwartz ("Gilligan's Island," "The Brady Bunch") and ABC execs Daniel B. Burke and Thomas Murphy. The six honorees will be feted Dec. 8 in Beverly Hills. TV Squad

• Guy Lodge of In Contention provides insight into the Grammy nominees for best score. While TV shows can contend, all five nominees come from the movies, including two ruled ineligible for the Oscars — Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard ("The Dark Knight") and Johnny Greenwood ("There Will Be Blood") — as well as Thomas Newman for "WALL-E," Ramin Djawadi (surprise!) for "Iron Man" and John Williams (yawn) for "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull." In Contention

• Variety details the new NBC sked with one-time Emmy champ "The Office" slated for the post-Super Bowl slot with a one-hour special (rather than splitting the time with the upcoming spin-off) and one of the all-time Emmy champs "ER" signing off after 15 seasons March 12. "Medium" starring Emmy winner Patricia Arquette is slated to return Feb. 2, while "Celebrity Apprentice" hits the airwaves March 1.

• New York Vulture feeds on the news that a legit tuner version of "The Flintstones" is in development. This one-time Emmy-nominated TV show from the 1960s has already spawned a hit 1994 movie and a miss 2000 sequel. Speculating on the casting, "we hear the movie version of Betty Rubble, Rosie O'Donnell, is newly available. But let's focus on the important stuff, shall we? Please, lordy, let them cast Suri Cruise as Pebbles." New York Vulture

Photos: Columbia Pictures, Warner Bros.

If "Slumdog Millionaire" is really the new "Chariots of Fire" — a little indie flick about champion underdogs that wins best picture at the Oscars — then it just hit a kudos jackpot by being named best picture of 2008 by the National Board of Review. In 1981, the National Board of Review was the first and only major U.S. awards group to give its top prize to the small film about runners with big dreams of breaking into the Olympics before it went the distance in the Oscars derby. Now the little movie about a ghetto boy who wins India's version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" has emerged as a top dog in this year's Oscars race.

This is the second year in a row that National Board of Review issued its top 10 list of best films separately from the winner of best picture. This year's entries: "Burn After Reading," "Changeling," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Dark Knight," "Defiance," "Frost/Nixon," "Gran Torino," "Milk," "Wall-E," "The Wrestler." Notable snubs: "Doubt," "Revolutionary Road," "The Reader," "Australia" and — considering the awards love it received in other NBR categories — "Frozen River."

All major movies were seen by National Board of Review members this year with one exception: United Artists did not screen "Valkyrie" before voting but will show it to members before it's released to theaters this month. In past years, NBR's awards came out so early in December that its voters missed seeing such Oscar best picture winners as "Gone with the Wind" (1939), "Rain Man" (1988), "A Beautiful Mind" (2001) and "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (2003).

Other winners of 2008 NBR Awards:

Best director: David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Best actor: Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"
Best actress: Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Best supporting actor: Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Best supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Best foreign-language filim: "Mongol"
Best documentary: "Man on Wire"
Best animated feature: "Wall-E"
Best ensemble cast: "Doubt"
Best breakthrough actor: Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Best breakthrough actress: Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Best directorial debut: Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"
Best original screenplay: Nick Schenk, "Gran Torino"
Best adapted screenplay (tie): Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"; Eric Roth, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Spotlight Award: Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"; Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Freedom of Expression: "Trumbo"
William K. Everson Film History Award: Molly Haskell, Andrew Sarris

Top five best foreign-language films, listed alphabetically: "Edge of Heaven," "Let the Right One In," "Roman de Guerre," "A Secret," "Waltz with Bashir"

Top five documentary films, listed alphabetically: "American Teen," "The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)," "Dear Zachary," "Encounters at the End of the World," "Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired"

Of the 100 films nominated for best picture at the Oscars over the last two decades, the NBR named 72 of them on their annual lists. The comparison is a bit skewed since National Board of Review picks 10 or 11 films per year instead of five, but it's still worthy of note. Three times in those 20 years all five Oscar nominees made the NBR top list and the winners agreed: 1989 ("Driving Miss Daisy"), 1994 ("Forrest Gump") and 2002 ("Chicago"). The two awards also chose the same best pictures five other times in those two decades: 1990 ("Dances With Wolves"), 1991 ("Silence of the Lambs"), 1993 ("Schindler's List"), 1999 ("American Beauty") and 2007 ("No Country for Old Men").

Comparisons between the awards are most apt only when stacking up results over the past several years since there was a huge changeover in members of the exceptional photoplay committee after a power coup at National Board of Review. Consider how these top NBR awards compare with Oscar results over the past three years:

X = Oscar champ

2007
X - Best picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"

2006
Best picture: "Letters From Iwo Jima"
X - Best actor: Forest Whitaker, "Last King of Scotland"
X - Best actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

2005
Best picture: "Good Night, and Good Luck"
X - Best actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Best actress: Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"

The National Board of Review is the New Hampshire primary of kudos season because the group is hellbent to be the first major award of the derby. Its influence has been considerable through the years, dating as far as 1934 when it probably nudged the Oscars to notice its eventual best-picture choice, "It Happened One Night," which came close to being dismissed as a quickly lensed screwball comedy.

In 1955, low-budget, black-and-white indie "Marty" got attention at the Cannes Film Festival, but the board was the first to hail it stateside before it snagged the top Oscar.

Its impact can probably be measured best by three of its best-picture choices: "Patton" (1970), "The Sting" (1973) and "Chariots of Fire" (1981). All were subsequently snubbed by the film critics' groups and the Golden Globes, then resurfaced later at the tail end of the derby.

The National Board of Review was founded in New York in 1909 by a coalition of forces determined to stop the city government from censoring movies. The coalition consisted of movie-makers plus community and family organizations and, in effect, took over the censoring job themselves. NBR gave its seal of approval to films it liked and assigned viewing-age recommendations: "M" for mature audiences (18 and older), "F" for families (12 and up) and "J" for juvenile (under 12). From the 1920s to the 1940s, many U.S. cities forbid the public showing of films unless they displayed the legend "Passed by the National Board of Review" in their credits.

Over time the Motion Picture Association of America took over the role of officially approving film content and NBR evolved into a film appreciation society. The New York-based group got into the awards game in by issuing lists of the year's best films just months after the first Oscar ceremony was held out on America's other coast in 1929.

NBR is not a journalists' group, as commonly believed. It comprises sophisticated New Yorkers, a few of whom are journalists, but others are scholars, lawyers, doctors, students, etc. Of its 122 members, 41 are either film students or people who can be classified as young filmmakers. Last year NBR bestowed 29 student scholarships ranging in sums from $500 to $5,000, totaling $75,000.

• In his most recent column, Pete Hammond writes of the first press screening of "Gran Torino" attended by the film's director and star Clint Eastwood, who talked about retiring from acting. For Pete, "If 'Gran Torino' does prove to be his acting swan song, he couldn't have picked a better way to go out. As a grizzled, racist, foul-mouthed ex-Marine refusing to move from an old neighborhood now populated  with Asians and overrun by gangs, Eastwood summons up memories from his past roles." Notes on A Season

• And speaking of all things Clint, those cheeky wags behind the Vulture column at New York magazine take a listen to his crooning of the title track from "Gran Torino." Their review? "In their infinite benevolence, Warner Bros. has created a 'For Your Consideration' website for the musical score for 'Gran Torino' — which features the plaintive, heartfelt balladeering of grizzled, 78-year-old actor-director Clint Eastwood! Sounding not unlike Tom Waits with a punctured lung, Eastwood eschews Auto-Tune, rendering the film's title song possibly the most terrific thing we've heard all week. We can't wait to see him do this live at the Oscars." New York Vulture

• Pop & Hiss crackles with an item about the opening of the Grammy Museum in L.A. this weekend. "The Tuesday morning preview revealed the new facility to be a heavily interactive exhibition hall, one whose emphasis is not on past trophy winners or even historic artifacts but instead on music education and appreciation. The 30,000-square-foot space, which comes complete with a 200-seat theater, essentially functions as a hands-on gallery." Pop & Hiss

• Otto Spoerri, controller of Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences from 1978 until 2002, died Saturday at age 75 in his hometown of Zurich, Switzerland.  While Spoerri oversaw the academy’s accounting department, he was better known as the person who determined seating arrangements at the annual Oscars. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal once called him "the ultimate arbiter of industry power," and the Associated Press referred to him as "the most powerful person in Hollywood." Despite the media attention, Spoerri laughed off his annual 15 minutes of fame, saying that the task was really pretty straightforward. "It’s just working with the producer of the broadcast to make sure that where people sit makes the show flow smoothly," he explained. AMPAS

• Our pal Thelma Adams, film critic for Us Weekly, also contributes to the Huffington Post from time to time. This week she raises the provocative issue of the double standard applied in "The Reader," which features a sexual relationship between a thirtysomething woman (Kate Winslet) and a teenage boy (David Kross). As Thelma writes, "Reverse the genders — older man deflowers underage girl — and there would be a public outcry." She also says, "Michael is both the victim of abuse, and lost in his continued love for his abuser, because nothing since has come close to that intensity. Emotionally, he stopped growing at 15." Huffington Post

• Lou Lumenick of the New York Post recaps the latest in Tom Cruise's WWII thriller, "Valkyrie," and its rocky road to release. With the film not being screened in time to be considered for critics kudos and with advance word less than stellar, Lou concludes its best awards hopes may well be the Razzies. New York Post

• Patrick Goldstein delivers the Big Picture with his report on the recent raucous screening of "Frost/Nixon" in the nation's capital. The screening concluded with a war of words between Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and journalist James Reston Jr., who was one of Frost's researchers for the original interviews. Big Picture

• Timothy Gray of Variety takes an interesting look at why some of the most prestigious kudos of the awards season — DGA and WGA for example — are not televised. It seems the potential license fees do not outweigh the economic and artistic costs of publicly airing these private affairs. "DGA president Michael Apted said broadcasters frequently woo the guild, but they always decline. 'We honor the craft,' Apted emphasized, 'and we do it at an event where members can let their hair down.'" No doubt DGA is especially happy that its last award ceremony wasn't televised considering the wacky outbursts by actress Sean Young, who was briskly escorted from the ceremony. Afterward, she issued a formal apology and entered alcohol rehab. Variety

• Why don't Oscar voters take comic films more seriously? "Maybe it's just the dichotomy of laughs versus seriousness," Ben Stiller tells Envelope blogger Scott Feinberg. Sarah Jessica Parker pipes in: "It might look like it comes easily, but there's enormous choreography to it, there's endless rehearsing of timing, thinking about your environment, props . . . . It's hard — it's wonderfully hard. " Read more and listen to their podcasts HERE.

• Nelson Branco of TV Guide Canada freaks out "Young and the Restless" star Christian LeBlanc when he asks the two-time Emmy champ what he thinks about the news that his network, CBS, has declined to telecast the Daytime Emmy ceremony this year. Apparently, he hadn't heard the news.

• New York Times Carpetbagger David Carr blames himself for the loss of "The Wrestler" to "Frozen River" at the Gotham Awards since Carr sat at the Fox Searchlight table and considers himself to be "kudo kryptonite." The Bagger likes the Gothams because they're kept "on the down low . . . .  There are lots of laughs, very little in the way of star posses, and the security is very mellow." Apparently, the event's security guards weren't tempted to toss him out when he started glowing green in the dark and was body-slammed by Mickey Rourke. READ MORE.

• Speaking of the Gotham Awards, Guy Lodge of InContention is mightily impressed at how hot "Frozen River" is proving in early awards: "If it continues to emerge as this year’s indie Cinderella story, I’ll be interested to see what notice the academy takes of it. I sense a best original screenplay nod for Courtney Hunt is a genuine possibility considering the dearth of heavyweights in that field. At the very least, however, the more momentum the film gains, the more I like [Melissa] Leo’s chances of a well-deserved best actress nod. "

Photos: Paramount, Weinstein Co., Warner Bros./New Line, DreamWorks

If you're viewing Gold Derby via Internet Explorer, check out the orange icon at the top of this blog next to the word "Subscribe." If you're using the Firefox browser, the orange icon is up in the URL address window. Either way, click on that square icon and you'll be taken to Gold Derby's RSS page where you can click on the "++" icon in the top left corner and receive this blog in the future via RSS feed. That means you can access this blog's edit items by clicking on your "favorites" menu in Internet Explorer, for example, then clicking on the "Feeds" icon — presto, you get instant Gold Derby news.

Personally, I think the greatest RSS feed is Google Reader. Don't know it? For shame! Check it out HERE and remember to add Gold Derby's blog's main URL — http://goldderby.latimes.com/

If all of that is too complicated, then just bookmark this link in your "favorites" menu, to reach the main page of Gold Derby easily in the future.

Seven years after director Baz Luhrmann experienced a crazy romp through the kudos derby riding "Moulin Rouge!" he's back with "Australia. " What does he think of awardsmania? Why does he risk the wrath of gritty film critics to make his wildly romantic movies in the cynical 21st century? Last Wednesday night, Baz and I teamed up to do a Q&A screening chat at the Directors Guild of America theater in New York. We didn't have enough time to cover all key topics, so we hooked up again on Friday afternoon to continue dishing — this time with a video camera tuned in so you can watch.

Camerawork by Paul Sheehan

Today's Annie Awards nominations could be the first sign that "Wall-E" is less of a lock for the animated feature Oscar than we thought. Although the Pixar picture was hailed by critics, ranking as one of the top-rated films of the year, it managed only eight nods from those truly in the know about the art of making animation — the International Animated Film Society. Just as "Kung Fu Panda" trumped it in the worldwide box office race ($633 million to $488 million), so too did that DreamWorks feature prevail here, reaping a staggering 17 nominations.

Both films are up for the top award of best animated feature, competing against  "Bolt" (five noms total), "Waltz with Bashir" with four nods, and double nominee "$9.99." Although "WALL-E" did reasonably well across the board, "Kung Fu Panda" pulled off triple nominations in both character animation and voice acting and double nods in storyboarding and production design.

Since the Academy Awards introduced a best animated feature award of their own in 2001, the winners of the two awards have matched up every year but 2006, when "Cars" won the Annie but "Happy Feet" danced off with the Oscar. However, last year's double winner "Ratatouille" was also the clear leader at the Annies, winning 10 of its 14 nominations and far outpacing the other two eventual Oscar nominees "Surf's Up," which won two of 10 nods while "Persepolis" went zero for four.

Here are key dates of major kudo news coming up on the derby track:

Dec. 2 - Gotham Awards declares winners
Dec. 2 - Indie Spirits announces nominees
Dec. 4 - National Board of Review announces winners
Dec. 9 - Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. winners unveiled
Dec. 9 - Critics Choice announces nominees
Dec. 10 - New York Film Critics Circle declares winners

Illustration by Ty Wilson

• "Slumdog Millionaire" won best picture, director and newcomer (Dev Patel) at the British Independent Film Awards. Best actor champ: Michael Fassbender, "Hunger." Best actress: Vera Farmiga, "The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas." READ MORE.

These kudos are poor Oscar prophets. "Control" swept last year. In 2006, "This Is England" beat "The Queen" and "Last King of Scotland" for best British film, but those two losers received apt consolation prizes (best director and screenplay).

• All Oscar voters were shipped "The Wrestler" and "Che" DVDs late last week. Some received them in time for the Thanksgiving break. Others didn't. Earlier last week, all voters received "Frost/Nixon," "The Duchess" and "Quantum of Solace." To see what they received prior to that, CLICK HERE!

• Grammy nominations will be announced this Wednesday, Dec. 3. Check out the predictions of our forum posters, plus pipe in with your own views — CLICK HERE!

• Speaking of our forums: Are you confused about what's being campaigned at the Oscars and in what category? Check out the thread in our message boards that's constantly updated by our forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum and our posters as they track "For Your Consideration" ads in Variety, Hollywood Reporter, L.A. Times, etc. — CLICK HERE!

• We may be haughty Oscarologists, but we Envelope bloggers are humbly grateful for some things. Over at the Feinberg Files blog, in honor of Thanksgiving weekend, Scott Feinberg features the 10 movies that he, Pete Hammond and I are most thankful for. By the way, "Peggy Sue Got Married" is not only one of my 10 favorite films, it's also on my list of 10 greatest pix. Go 'head and laugh and I'll come out swinging something to be found in another one of the pix on my list, "The Shining" — Jack Nicholson's hatchet.

• If you were hoping to hustle an invite to Vanity Fair's Oscar party for the first time this year, forget it. "We're going to scale back the guest list considerably," says editor Graydon Carter of the bash to be held on Feb. 22 at the Sunset Tower Hotel. "It will be a cozier, more understated event." READ MORE

• The New York Times' Carpetbagger David Carr — hooray — has started to pipe in about Oscarmania, noting that the "seasons seems even sillier than usual. After all, who really cares about the throwdown for best supporting actor at a time when the citizenry seems poised for a run on its own banks? But watching Hollywood hug itself in an orgy of self-congratulation has some real psychic benefit." READ MORE. But, hey, why hasn't Carr restarted the crazy carousel at his blog HERE?

Photos: Fox Searchlight, Tristar

Variety's review of "The Reader" is good news/ bad news. Todd McCarthy says, "Stephen Daldry's film is sensitively realized and dramatically absorbing, but comes across as an essentially cerebral experience without gut impact . . . . Kate Winslet supplies a haunting shell to this internally decimated woman," but McCarthy feels cheated because she's so emotionally remote that "one can never look inside the character of Hanna."

Already Oscarologists Kris Tapley of InContention.com and Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com are bailing on "The Reader," which I think is a huge mistake. It's a serious contender for best picture and actress as the nominations for the Satellite Awards just demonstrated. Sure, those awards aren't important themselves, but often they are fascinating tea leaves not to be ignored.

In recent years the Satellites were the first awards of derby season to bestow best-picture noms to small contenders like "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Juno" and "Lost in Translation." Sure, they nominated other flicks that got skunked like "Antwone Fisher," "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Jarhead," but some past best-pic nominees like "Half Nelson" and "Hustle & Flow" at least poked through in acting slots at the Oscars, which may be significant this year because of Kate Winslet's dueling bids for "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road."

Meantime, I stand by my declaration that "The Reader" is a serious contender in all top Oscar races — READ MORE

Photo: Weinstein Co.

Uh-oh! Kate Winslet's vote-splitting has officially begun! The Satellite Awards just nominated Kate Winslet in the best-actress race for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road," thus ignoring her campaign to put the "Reader" role in supporting. However, both films are up for best drama picture, but there are several, big curious omissions in that race: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Doubt" and "The Dark Knight." The latter snub is especially bizarre considering Christopher Nolan is up for best director.

The other contenders for best drama pic: "Slumdog Millionaire," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and — surprise — "Frozen River." The pix up for best comedy/musical: "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist," "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," "Tropic Thunder," "In Bruges," "Choke." Notable snubs: "Burn After Reading," "Mamma Mia!" and "High School Musical 3," which all could rally at the Golden Globes.

None of the helmers of those comedies got a bid for best director. In addition to Nolan, the nominees for that race: Thomas McCarthy ("The Visitor"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Gus Van Sant ("Milk"), Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"), Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") and Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). The snub of Sam Mendes ("Revolutionary Road") is surprising.

There are lots of other peculiarities in this year's list. "Australia" has nine nominations, but none for best picture. Penelope Cruz is considered to be a front-runner at the Oscars in the supporting race, but she isn't nominated by the Satellites for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," which is up for best comedy. She did score a bid for "Elegy," though. "Benjamin Button" is based upon a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, but it's nommed in the category for original screenplays.

The Satellites are bestowed by a rebel group of foreign journos who broke off from the Golden Globes back in the early 1990s. Often their tastes reflect the views of their foreign colleagues, who in turn mirror the outcome of the Oscars. But often the views of the Satellites can also seem like they're beamed in from the planet Neptune.

Last year they nominated only two of Oscar's five best-picture contenders: "Juno" and "No Country for Old Men." At least they managed to include the winner. Last year's Oscar champ as best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), wasn't nominated, but the film was probably absent from all races because voters didn't see the late-year release in time. (The same is probably true this year for "Gran Torino," which is snubbed.) In fact, the Satellites forecast only two of Oscar's best-actor finalists: Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). However, they did tap all best-actress contenders.

How do the Satellites compare to the Globes? Just as often as they agree, they seem to disagree — drastically. Last year the Satellites for best picture went to "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno." Globers preferred "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd." In 2007, the two awards agreed again on best comedy/musical ("Dreamgirls"), but the Globes chose "Babel" for best picture while the Satellites opted for "The Departed." The previous year both kudos picked "Brokeback Mountain" and "Walk the Line." In 2004, they split: Both chose "Sideways" as best comedy/musical pic, but the Satellites opted for "Hotel Rwanda" as best drama and the Globes went for "The Aviator."

Below is a partial list of nominees. See full list at the Satellites' website. The awards will be bestoed on Dec. 14 at the Century City InterContinental Hotel.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Reader "
"Slumdog Millionaire "
"Revolutionary Road "
"Frost/Nixon "
"Milk "
"Frozen River "

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
"Happy-Go-Lucky "
"Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist "
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona "
"Tropic Thunder "
"In Bruges "
"Choke "

Pundits are constantly updating their Oscars predix at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, so remember to keep checking back often. (Bookmark THIS LINK for quick access in the future.)

Below is a sampling of newest predix from top gurus, who include Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) and moi.

Notice how close the battle is over best picture. While four of these seven seers pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," two of us naysayers back "Slumdog Millionaire" and one opts for "Milk." All four "Button" backers put "Slumdog Millionaire" in second place. I — a "Slumdog" supporter — list "Button" as the runner-up."

Views are split over best actor: three votes for Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), two for Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), one for Sean Penn ("Milk") and one for Leo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road").

Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") zooms ahead of previous front-runner Meryl Streep ("Doubt") with four votes to one. Streep even falls behind Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"), who has two votes.

Photo: Miramax

Good news for Sean Penn fans: At the end of "Milk" — SPOILER ALERT — you get to watch your hero get blown away by gunfire.

Sorry, but that seems to be the price Penn must pay if he wants to win another Oscar to match the chunk of academy gold he nabbed for 2003's "Mystic River." That's because gay roles that win Academy Awards for actors almost always must suffer ghastly deaths.

No star has ever won an Oscar for portraying a gay, lesbian or transgender person who lives happily ever after. The character of Truman Capote (Philip Seymour Hoffman) gets to live, yes, at the end of "Capote," but we know that he'll end up croaking from booze and pills someday while stumbling around Joanne Carson's house in Beverly Hills.

The five other roles that paid off with Oscars have horrible ends on screen: Tom Hanks dies of AIDS in "Philadelphia," Hilary Swank gets beaten to death in "Boys Don't Cry," Nicole Kidman commits suicide in "The Hours," Charlize Theron is executed in "Monster," and William Hurt gets shot — much like Sean Penn — in "Kiss of the Spider Woman."

If you don't count roles that just hint at a character's homosexuality (Paul Newman in "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" or Tom Courtenay in "The Dresser"), I've tallied up 28 gay, lesbian and transgender roles that have been nominated for Oscars. (Have I missed any? If so, click the comments link below.)

Nine get killed off. Some snuff themselves: Kathy Bates uses a pistol in "Primary Colors," Ian McKellen drowns himself in "Gods and Monsters," Ed Harris jumps out a window in "The Hours, " Javier Bardem dies of AIDS in "Before Night Falls."

The fact that Sean Penn is heterosexual in real life hikes his Oscar hopes significantly. No gay person has ever won an Academy Award for playing gay, and only two openly homosexual actors have been nominated for portraying someone with a lavender lilt: James Coco and Ian McKellen. Coco wasn't officially and fully "out" of the closet, but he was candid about his private life to friends and colleagues and frequently flaunted a flamboyant nature in public.

ACTORS NOMINATED FOR GAY ROLES
(X = Winner)
Estelle Parsons ("Rachel, Rachel") (1968)
Peter Finch, "Sunday Bloody Sunday" (1971)
Al Pacino, "Dog Day Afternoon" (1975)
Chris Sarandon, "Dog Day Afternoon" (1975)
John Lithgow, "World According to Garp" (1982)
Marcello Mastroianni, "A Special Day" (1977)
James Coco, "Only When I Laugh" (1981)
Robert Preston, "Victor, Victoria" (1982)
Cher, "Silkwood" (1983)
X - William Hurt, "Kiss of the Spider Woman" (1985)
Bruce Davison, "Longtime Companion" (1990)
Tommy Lee Jones, "JFK" (1991)
Jaye Davidson, "The Crying Game" (1992)
X - Tom Hanks, "Philadelphia" (1993)
Greg Kinnear, "As Good as It Gets" (1997)
Ian McKellen, "Gods and Monsters" (1998)
Kathy Bates, "Primary Colors" (1998)
X - Hilary Swank, "Boys Don't Cry" (1999)
Javier Bardem, "Before Night Falls" (2000)
Ed Harris, "The Hours" (2002)
X - Nicole Kidman, "The Hours" (2002)
Julianne Moore, "The Hours" (2002)
X - Charlize Theron, "Monster" (2003)
X - Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" (2005)
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica" (2005)
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain" (2005)
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain" (2005)
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal" (2006)

Photos: TriStar, Island Alive, Miramax, Fox Searchlight

No wonder that notorious rascal Harvey Weinstein was so hellbent to push "The Reader" into this year's Oscars derby. It became quite clear after a screening Tuesday night in New York: It's a serious contender for best picture, director, actress (lead or supporting — more on that later), supporting actors, screenplay plus other slots. And that could possibly trip up a rival contender.

There have been grave doubts about "The Reader" because it takes an ambivalent look at a perpetrator of the Holocaust rather than a sympathetic one of the victims. Kate Winslet portrays a woman who dispatched Jews to gas chambers and doesn't seem obviously repentant later when she's tried in court. How can anyone, especially Jewish Oscar voters, embrace that?

The question got a fascinating test at the screening at a Jewish organization, the 92nd Street Y, a branch of YMHA, where the audience of more than 750-plus viewers was largely enthralled. Afterward, I overhead lots of huzzahs and no slams.

The screening was followed by a Q&A session conducted by Columbia University professor Annette Insdorf with director Stephen Daldry, who savvily articulated the reasons why "The Reader's" story may not be offensive. Kate Winslet's character isn't overtly sorry for her past, no, not early in the film anyway, but viewers may believe she becomes so later, especially when she does something that may be perceived as punishing herself. The uncertainty makes "The Reader" all the more fascinating as a drama.

"I tried to leave things ambiguous," Daldry said. "I want to keep what she learned and what she didn't from us. It's not for us to know."

During the first part of the film, it's clear that Kate Winslet's character, Hanna, is "morally illiterate," Daldry added. (There were loud gasps throughout the audience when he uttered that phrase.) But later in the story, Daldry said, he and screenwriter David Hare cautiously applied "complicated calibration to try to find careful relations to when you are sympathetic to her and when you're not."

Two Oscar pundits who saw "Revolutionary Road" and "The Reader" this week and who asked not to quoted by name (for reasons I don't understand but will honor) believe that "The Reader" has a better shot at a best-picture nomination and even a lead actress bid for Winslet. A few others I admire disagree and pick "Revolutionary Road" for both categories. Personally, I haven't sorted out my own thoughts yet, but the former opinions — and the response "The Reader" got Tuesday night in New York — tell me that Harvey Weinstein may be quite happy on Jan. 22 when noms are unveiled.

Let's consider, first, a best picture bid. "The Reader" will get a chunk of No. 1 votes on nomination ballots, but enough? Dunno. Considering how Oscar voting works, using that odd preferential ballot, it could get in with a strong minority vote even if it's not listed among the five choices ranked by a majority of academy members. Remember, only No. 1 (and sometimes No. 2) votes really count when tallies are done.

Secondly, about 80% of best pic nominees usually line up with films in the helming race. That's great news for "The Reader." Stephen Daldry has never not been nominated for best director. "The Reader" is his third feature film, and he previously reaped bids for "The Hours" and "Billy Elliot." "The Hours" got nommed for best pic, "Billy Elliot" didn't.

Thirdly, movies nominated for best picture usually get corresponding bids in screenplay and acting, and "The Reader" is strong in those races. David Hare got nominated for penning "The Hours," and Ralph Fiennes and David Kross are strong contenders for supporting actor.

Now let's consider the lead actress race, the most intriguing Oscar mystery of all. Kate Winslet is campaigning in lead for "Revolutionary Road" and supporting in "The Reader." That preference may make sense to Winslet — "Revolutionary Road" is directed by her husband, Sam Mendes — but, frankly, it's absurd to define her role in "The Reader" as supporting.

Winslet gives powerhouse lead performances in both films, but according to the academy's bizarre rules, she can only be nominated once per category. (Directors and writers, however, can have multiple bids per slot.) Oscar voters may graciously assign her two roles to the separate categories, as she asks, but they've ignored category guidance in the past in cases like "Whale Rider" star Keisha Castle-Hughes, who campaigned for supporting and got upped to lead when noms came out.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

At the Q&A screening of "The Reader" in New York on Tuesday night, director Stephen Daldry revealed the back story of how Kate Winslet was cast in his film.

"I offered the role first to Kate Winslet, but she couldn't do it because she was busy making 'Revolutionary Road,'" he added. "So I offered it to Nicole Kidman, who I worked with before, and she said yes. We started filming for several weeks, shooting scenes she wasn't in, when we got word that she was pregnant. So I went back to Kate Winslet, who was available at that point."

The reason that Daldry approached Winslet first was because she was the top choice of Bernhard Schlink, who wrote the popular book upon which the film is based. (It's compulsory reading in German schools, he noted. Here in the U.S., it was included in Oprah Winfrey's Book Club.)

The last time Nicole Kidman teamed up with Daldry it was in "The Hours," which was based on a popular book translated to the screen by the same writer, David Hare. Is that a good omen now for Winslet? If so, perhaps Kidman might've won a second Oscar for teaming up with Daldry and Hare again? Won't it be curious if the two stars end up facing off this year in the lead actress contest for "The Reader" and "Australia"?

Photo: Miramax