Back in November 2006, future Oscars co-hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin sparred over who's hosted "Saturday Night Live" the most times. Currently, the tally is Martin 15, Baldwin 14.

RELATED POSTS

Oscars predix for best pix from 16 experts

Oscars predix for best pix: Now the real experts pipe in – our forum moderators

Why Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin to host Oscars? Well, it's complicated .

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin are good, solid choices to host the Oscars, but it's hard to make sense of why they were tapped — and combined as a pair. Lately, Oscar chiefs have seemed eager to lure younger viewers and add song-and-dance entertainment to the ceremony. Martin is age 64, Baldwin is 51. Neither is known as a musical showman a la last year's emcee Hugh Jackman.

But they're both stars of the upcoming comedy directed by Nancy Meyers, "It's Complicated," which opens this Christmas featuring them as dueling love interests of Meryl Streep. If either nabs a bid for acting, he'll be the first Academy Awards host to be nominated while presiding at the ceremony since Paul Hogan was nommed for writing "Crocodile Dundee" as he hosted the Oscars with Goldie Hawn and Chevy Chase in 1987 (honoring films released in 1986).

That was the last time that the Oscars had multiple hosts, which rarely occurs nowadays. A trio also presided one year earlier — Alan Alda, Jane Fonda, Robin Williams. Notice that both of those examples included something missing from this year's combo: a woman. Why don't they add Meryl Streep to this year's mix? If they want a dash of musical panache, let's recall that the two-time Oscar champ recently crooned successfully in "Mamma Mia!" and earned one of her record 15 nominations for her singing performance in "Postcards from the Edge." Oh, wait -- that's right: last year there were reports that producers wanted her to join Hugh Jackman in a musical duet on stage, but she declined.

.

RELATED POSTS

Oscars predix for best pix from 16 experts

Oscars predix for best pix: Now the real experts pipe in – our forum moderators

Gold Derby nuggets: 'Star Trek' best cast movie | 'Doctor Who' tries legal series | 'An Education' from director Lone Scherfig

Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) agrees with me that Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") will probably win the Emmy again for best comedy actor, but Chris "Boomer" Beachum backs Steve Carell ("The Office"), possibly due to wishful thinking. We all agree that Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") is a serious rival.

Also watch our video smackdowns covering these Emmy races too: best drama actor, lead drama actress, best comedy series and lead comedy actress.

Also, read Boomer's and Rob's in-depth analysis of these contests: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best drama series, best lead drama actor, lead drama actress, lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. See a chart of predix by top journalists here. See my full list of predix here. Read more predix in our forums.

RELATED POSTS

Tom O'Neil's 100% perfect, peerless Emmy Award predictions

Gutsy Emmy Award predictions from TV's smartest experts

Basically, I think Emmys are going to make like a TV repeat this year and bring back last year's winners in all top series races: best drama ("Mad Men"), lead drama actor (Bryan Cranston, "Breaking  Bad"), lead drama actress (Glenn Close, "Damages"), best comedy ("30 Rock"), lead actor (Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"), lead actress (Tina Fey, "30 Rock"). Here is my full list of predictions, which you should compare with those of other experts pooled by Gold Derby.

Believe it or not, such mass repetition has never happened — all of the top champs returning, that is. It may seem like Emmy winners get rubber-stamped all the time and they often do, but not en masse like that.

What could the upsets be? Bryan Cranston faces a serious challenge from Gabriel Byrne, who gave Emmy judges a powerful episode of "In Treatment" — ("Gina, Week 4") — in which his character has a gripping scene at his father's death bed. "In Treatment" has two drawbacks, though: It's only half the length, time-wise, as rival nominees (size matters in Hollywood) and its characters are excruciatingly whiny, preachy and self-absorbed. However, Dianne Wiest pulled off an upset victory for supporting actress in the series last year.

Cranston also has gripping dramatics in his episode, too — "Phoenix" — read a full description here. Specifically touching is a scene in which he shows his infant daughter the illicit fortune he's stashed away for the well-being of his family's future. Click here to watch a video of Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and I discuss the nuances of this cliffhanger category race.

Locked up are wins for best series ("Mad Men," "30 Rock") and Glenn Close as actress. There are chances of upsets on the comedy side, all because of a fluke factor of multiple personalities as a voting plus.

For some crazy reason, those notoriously nutty Hollywooders love to reward actors who portray split personalities — as if they're getting multiple performances for the price of one vote. Perhaps the biggest upset in Emmy history was pulled off by Lindsay Wagner as best drama actress — yes, drama actress — in 1977 for the laughably featherweight "Bionic Woman." She did so by giving Emmy judges an episode in which she portrayed good and evil twin takes on her character. Just last year Cynthia Nixon won an Emmy in the guest categories for portraying dual roles on "Law & Order: SVU." At the Daytime Emmys, Erika Slezak of "One Life to Live" won her fourth and fifth awards in 1994-95 and 1995-96, respectively, for acting out six personalities, one of them a 10-year-old boy. At the Oscars, think Joanne Woodward ("Three Faces of Eve") and Fredric March ("Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde").

In the race for best comedy actress, there are two contenders who challenge incumbent champ Tina Fey with multiple roles: Christina Applegate (good and evil turns of the same role in "Samantha Who?") and Toni Collette (four personalities in "United States of Tara"). However, Tina Fey gives a strong, sensitive performance in her episode submission, "Reunion," which reveals she once had a very different side to her adult personality. While attending her high-school reunion, she's shocked to discover that she was once considered to be a mean girl in her peers. (Fey, in real life, is the author and star of the hit film "Mean Girls" — get the inside joke? Will Emmy voters? They're members of the acting branch, which means they can be pretty dim.)

Last year's best comedy actor, Alec Baldwin, now has the split-personalities factor in his favor as he portrays, in "Generalissimo," both his usual role as sinister corporate suit plus an actor who portrays an army general on a Spanish TV soap opera. Baldwin does face some tough competition, though. He's up against Steve Carell ("The Office"), who's overdue to win and gave Emmy judges a sympathetic episode (for a change), titled "Broke." Usually, his character is too creepy or unlikable for voters to want to hug.

Here's our first batch of predictions pooled from some of the top Emmy journos: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Maggie Furlong (AOL) and Ray Richmond (just some guy). Below, a sampling of their predix. More to come soon.

For more in-depth noodling of top Emmy races, click on these links to analysis by our resident gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) sizing up these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead drama actor, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

Never in Emmy history have all of the top series champs of one year (best comedy and drama series, plus lead actor and actress) returned the next to strike gold again, but it's starting to look like it may happen on Sept. 20.

Many of Gold Derby's top experts — who view the same sample episodes submitted by nominees to Emmy judges — say that the new front-runners are last year's champs: "Mad Men" (best drama series), "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston (lead actor), "Damages'" Glenn Close (lead actress), "30 Rock" (comedy series), "30 Rock's" Alec Baldwin (lead actor) and "30 Rock's" Tina Fey (lead actress).

Possible upsets: Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") or Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") might crush Cranston, Steve Carell ("The Office") could humble Baldwin and Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") may trounce Tina Fey. Otherwise, the outcomes of these Emmy races seem pretty much set, according to our kudos prophets. Over the next few weeks, we'll be spotlighting their predix in more detail.

The closest the Emmys came to repeating in the past occurred in 1968 when all of the victorious lead actors in drama and comedy series returned from 1967: Bill Cosby ("I Spy"), Barbara Bain ("Mission: Impossible"), Don Adams ("Get Smart"), and Lucille Ball ("The Lucy Show"). "Mission: Impossible" won best drama series both years, but there were different winners of best comedy. "The Monkees" won in 1967, "Get Smart" in 1968.

Why would it be bad for last year's Emmy champs to repeat? (Why did I put "Uh, oh!" in the headline?) Actually, it wouldn't be terrible from the point of view of justice. Our spies viewing the nominees' episodes tell us that it seems like last year's victors deserve to prevail again. But the TV critics of America don't care about that. Historically, they've demanded that the Emmys reward new, cool faves and, if they dare to bore them with refried beans, they'll hurl their sloppy plates at them with a fury. Remember, I've written the definitive book on these kudos' history ("The Emmys," Penguin Putnam/ Perigee). I can tell you that's how it always plays out whenever there's too much overlap from year to year.

It shouldn't matter what TV critics think. They don't bother to watch the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges. They don't even bother to investigate what episodes were submitted. They don't care. But that doesn't stop them from mouthing huffy condemnations of the Emmys. That's the equivalent of film critics lambasting the Oscars without bothering to see the movies. Thus their opinions are almost worthless, as far as I'm concerned.

On Sunday night the Screen Actors Guild will bestow awards that often foretell the Oscars' winners. This year they may have extraordinary impact since the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will mail out final Oscar ballots next Wednesday — just three days after SAG winners get a chance to put on a truly winning performance at the podium.

To predict the SAG Awards results, we've pooled the views of top pundits: Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon.com), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Greg Ellwood (HitFix.com), Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Marshall Fine (Star magazine, HollywoodAndFine.com), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Kris Tapley (InContention.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) and me.

See which celebs will be presenting the trophies at the SAG Awards. Also, check out which film these pundits predict will win best picture from the Producers Guild of America.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor" — Howe
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk" — Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" — Brevet, Douglas, Howell, Lewin, Tapley, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married" — Douglas, Lewin
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" — Fine, Tourtellotte
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" — Howe, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Stanley, Tapley Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" — Fine, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wells, Wloszczyna
Viola Davis, "Doubt" — Howe
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Karger, Lewin, Musto, O'Neil, Tapley

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE CAST
"Doubt" — Brevet, Ellwood, Musto, O'Neil, Travers, Wells
"Milk" — Douglas, Hammond, Karger, Tapley
"Frost/Nixon"
"Slumdog Millionaire" — Feinberg, Fine, Howe, Howell, Lewin, Stanley, Wloszczyna
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — Tourtellotte

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
"The Dark Knight" — Brevet, Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howe, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Travers, Tourtellotte, Wells, Wloszczyna
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Iron Man"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
"Wanted" — Lewin

TELEVISION AWARDS

BEST ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." — Lewin
William Shatner, "Boston Legal"
James Spader, "Boston Legal"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters" — Lewin, O'Neil
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Ellwood, Fine, Hammond, Karger, Tourtellotte
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" — Douglas, Feinberg, Howell, Stanley, Travers, Wloszczyna

BEST ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Steve Carell, "The Office"
David Duchovny, "Californication"
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"
Tracy Ullman, "Tracy Ullman's State of the Union"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"The Closer"
"Mad Men" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
"House"
"Dexter"

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A TV COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Karger, Hammond, Howell, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Wloszczyna
"Desperate Housewives"
"Entourage" — Fine
"The Office"
"Weeds"

BEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Tom Wilkinson, "John Adams"
Ralph Fiennes, "Bernard and Doris"
Paul Giamatti, "John Adams" — Douglas, Ellwood, Feinberg, Fine, Hammond, Howell, Karger, Lewin, O'Neil, Stanley, Tourtellotte, Travers, Wloszczyna
Kiefer Sutherland, "24: Redemption"
Kevin Spacey, "Recount"

• Mike Ausiello reports at EW.com that Amy Ryan, the Oscar-nominated star of "Gone Baby Gone," "will be reprising her spectacularly popular role as Holly Flax, soul mate to Steve Carell's Michael" on "The Office," winner of best comedy series at the Emmys in 2006. She appeared in a special one-hour episode, "Goodbye, Toby," that was so impressive that it was the sample episode Carell submitted to Emmy judges. He lost to Alec Baldwin, who submitted the 30-minute "Rosemary's Baby" episode of "30 Rock," but it was a close call. Considering the tender emotional sensitivity of Ryan's role in "Goodbye, Toby," she could be up for an Emmy nomination in the guest category next year. EW.COM

• Secrets no more: See how director David Fincher's team of tech wizards created the dazzling special effects in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." Internet pirates have been creating sites like this about other films in the past, so "Button's" visual-effects team decided to do a legit version. You need to know the special user name ("sfx") and password ("buttonsbuttons") to log in. 'CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON'

• The foreign releases of "Slumdog Millionaire," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and other Oscar hopefuls are being timed closely to the Oscars race. VARIETY

• The same is true with Yankee rollouts, notes Variety: "On Jan. 23, Universal's 'Frost/Nixon,' DreamWorks / Paramount's 'Revolutionary Road' and Fox Searchlight's 'Slumdog Millionaire' transform from limited releases into nationwide theaters. Focus Features' 'Milk' expands the following weekend." VARIETY

• "Kate Winslet being double-nominated by BAFTA has me worried," sighs Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com. "I understand Kate's people pushing her in both categories in order to build a storm of acclamation and critical mass, but I really think it's time to nip this one in the bud. She'll probably win the Best Actress trophy for Rev Road -- highly deserved -- but that's enough." HOLLYWOOD-ELSEWHERE

• The Stooges and War didn't make it, but Little Anthony, Run-DMC, Bobby Womack and Jeff Beck are among the inductees to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. VARIETY

• The Oscar-nominated shorts will be released to theaters on Feb. 6 and on iTunes Feb. 17. SCREEN DAILY

Read related posts:

Steve Carell reveals Michael's tender heart in his Emmy episode submission "Goodbye, Toby."

Is Alec Baldwin's Emmy episode submission of "30 Rock" ("Rosemary's Baby") racially offensive?

Gold Derby nuggets: SAG exec apologizes for nominees boycott | Vultures' Oscars view: 'Slumdog' up; 'Dark Knight' down | Karger: Meryl Streep could be front-runner

Gold Derby nuggets: Dave Karger on wide-open acting races| Sasha Stone previews BAFTAs| Will TV's 'Arrested Development' and 'Pushing Daisies' make it to big screen?

Gold Derby nuggets: Will Oscars imitate Golden Globes? | Karger: Could 'Gran Torino' get best picture nod? | Will 'Mad Men' creator Matt Weiner return for third season?

Photo of Steve Carell and Amy Ryan in "The Office" courtesy of NBC / Photo of Kate Winslet in "The Reader" courtesy of Weinstein Co. /"Curious Case of Benjamin Button" photo courtesy of Paramount

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom. Join the Gold Derby Facebook group.

Tonight's sweep by "30 Rock" marked the eighth time in Emmy history that a show won best series (comedy or drama) plus lead actor and actress: "The Dick Van Dyke Show" (1964, 1966), "All in the Family" (1972, 1978), "The Waltons" (1973), "Hill Street Blues" (1981), "Picket Fences" (1993).

Curiously, all of the past romps in the comedy lineup also included a victory for best writing.

Although "30 Rock" got the last laugh as best comedy last year, neither of its lead stars prevailed for acting. Like last year's winner, America Ferrera, Tina Fey pulled off the awards trifecta in the same year as her Emmy win, taking the Golden Globe and SAG award earlier. Alec Baldwin won the SAG award this year and the Globe last year. So Emmy is just now catching up with some real winners.

And while Alan Alda won Emmys for writing, directing and starring in "M*A*S*H*" in different years, Fey won three Emmys for different duties in one year -- writing, producing and starring in "30 Rock."

Photo: Tina Fey and the cast of "30 Rock" accept their Emmy for the outstanding comedy series during "The 60th Primetime Emmy Awards." (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

For a decade, Jennifer Aniston and her "Friends" made Thursday night "Must See TV." Four years after that show signed off, Jennifer Aniston is returning to the NBC Thursday night lineup for a guest appearance on "30 Rock."

As per the peacock, she plays Claire Harper, "a free-spirited, 'Fatal Attraction'-like stalker." This former roommate of Tina Fey's character, Liz Lemon, blows in from the Windy City and sets her sights on Liz's boss Jack Donaghy (Alec Baldwin). (Glenn Close earned Oscar and Golden Globe noms for "Fatal Attraction" back in 1987.) Says Fey, "Jennifer is not only incredibly lovely to have around, she also has what the young people would call 'mad skills.' We're very excited that she's joining us."

Could this guest shot put Jennifer Aniston, a onetime winner and four-time nominee for "Friends," back in the Emmy race? Last year she guested on her "Friends" friend Courteney Cox's FX drama "Dirt" as a rival tabloid editor. While that show came up empty at Emmy time, "30 Rock" won two of its 10 nods last year, including best comedy series prize for its first season as well as a third golden girl for veteran actress Elaine Stritch, who guested as Baldwin's battle-ax momma.

This season, "30 Rock" dominated the guest acting categories, taking seven of the 11 nods in the comedy lineup. Stritch is back in the race, joined by three-time Emmy champ Edie Falco ("The Sopranos") as a love interest of Jack and Carrie Fisher as a fallen idol for Liz. And four of the five funny men got their nods for guesting on "30 Rock": Will Arnett, Steve Buscemi, five time Emmy champ Tim Conway, who won this category in 1996 for "Coach," and onetime Emmy winner Rip Torn ("The Larry Sanders Show").

(NBC)