Here's a snapshot of what we see on the Derby track right now.

* = Top 10 semifinalist in 2008

** = Nominee in 2008

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
(Front-runners)
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" **
Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" *
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" **
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ** (WINNER IN 2008)
Teri Hatcher, "Desperate Housewives"
Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" *
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" **
Eva Longoria-Parker, "Desperate Housewives" *
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" **
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Nicollette Sheridan, "Desperate Housewives"
Sarah Silverman, "The Sarah Silverman Program" *

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

Right now, about 50 to 75 actors who belong to the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences are judging the Emmy race for best comedy actress. They're viewing a sample episode submitted by each nominee: Christina Applegate ("The Restraining Order" from "Samantha Who?"), America Ferrera ("Odor in the Court" from "Ugly Betty"), Tina Fey ("Sandwich Day" from "30 Rock"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("One and a Half Men" from "The New Adventures of Old Christine"), Mary-Louise Parker, ("Bill Sussman" from "Weeds"). To see what sample episodes are being viewed in other Emmy races, CLICK HERE.

Below are photos of the actual discs used to judge outstanding lead actress in a comedy series, plus their plastic case. I made a goof while setting up these pix, all of which you can view if you click on the "Continue Reading" link underneath the two pix below. Can you spot the mistake? I'm too lazy to fix it by shooting a new photo (gimme a break -– I'm battling a nasty flu), so I'm turning this into a quiz for fun. Hint: The goof is located in the third photo down, which can be viewed –- along with the answer to this quiz -– after the jump.

After viewing these disks, voters must sign an affadavit attesting that they watched all of the sample DVDs. Then they must return the affadavits and their ballots to the TV academy by Friday.

The ALMA Awards celebrating Latino achievements in film, TV and music were held last night in LA. And unlike previous years we won't have to wait till the awardfest, emceed by "Desperate Housewives" star Eva Longoria Parker, airs on ABC on Sept. 12 to find out most of the winners. While the ALMA Awards website has no winners posted and the AP report on the awardsfest is surprisingly spotty, the wire service  also ran a complete list of winners.

"Ugly Betty" was feted with a special achievement award as was show star America Ferrera. Edward James Olmos won best actor in a drama series for "Battlestar Galactica" while Charlie Sheen took the comedy award for "Two and a Half Men." Roselyn Sanchez of "Without a Trace" and Judy Reyes from "Scrubs" won the TV actress prizes.

For the full list of nominees - CLICK HERE

Our Emmy gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria predict that four of last year's five finalists for best comedy actress will return to the race when nominations are announced on Thursday morning: winner America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty") and 2006 champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine") as well as Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds"). Bumped from their lists is 2005 winner Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") in favor of Christina Applegate of freshman hit "Samantha Who?"

They do not see a nod for the other newcomer, Anna Friel of "Pushing Daisies," nor nominations for either of the other "Desperate Housewives" –- one-time nominee Marcia Cross and never-nominated Eva Longoria Parker -- who landed in the list of Top 10 semifinalists. (Somewhere snubbed Teri Hatcher must be smiling at this prospect!) And sassy Sarah Silverman ("The Sarah Silverman Program") will have to be content with her jaw-dropping inclusion in this initial round of voting. The reason for that, I think, is the monotone, clueless style of her comic performances — they're fun to watch, but not emotionally flashy enough for Emmy voters.

To find the final five nominees, Rob and Boomer follow the actual voting process. First, they predict the order of the semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch.

Here's how Boomer thinks the popular vote tallied — 1.) Tina Fey 2.) America Ferrera 3.) Mary-Louise Parker 4.) Christina Applegate 5.) 6.) Felicity Huffman 7.) Marcia Cross 8.) Anna Friel 9.) Eva Longoria Parker 10.) Sarah Silverman

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Tina Fey 2.) Julia Louis-Dreyfus 3.) America Ferrera 4.) Mary-Louise Parker 5.) Anna Friel 6.) Felicity Huffman 7.) Marcia Cross 8.) Eva Longoria Parker 9.) Christina Applegate 10.) Sarah Silverman

Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries.

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) Julia Louis-Dreyfus 2.) Tina Fey 3.) Christina Applegate 4.) America Ferrera 5.) Marcia Cross 6.) Felicity Huffman 7.) Mary-Louise Parker 8.) Anna Friel 9.) Eva Longoria Parker 10.) Sarah Silverman

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) Julia Louis-Dreyfus 2.) Tina Fey 3.) Christina Applegate 4.) America Ferrera 5.) Mary-Louise Parker 6.) Felicity Huffman 7.) Marcia Cross 8.) Eva Longoria Parker 9.) Anna Friel 10.) Sarah Silverman

They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees. The lower the score the higher the chance of being nominated.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ("Sandwich Day") — 3 points
2.) America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" ("Odor in the Court") — 6 points
2.) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" ("One & a Half Men") — 6 points
4.) Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" ("The Restraining Order") — 7 points
5.) Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" ("Bill Sussman") — 10 points
6.) Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now You Know") — 12 points
7.) Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now I Know, Don't Be Scared") — 15 points
7.) Eva Longoria Parker, "Desperate Housewives" ("In Buddy's Eyes") — 15 points
9.) Anna Friel, "Pushing Daisies" ("Bitter Sweets") — 16 points
10.) Sarah Silverman, "The Sarah Silverman Program" ("Bored of the Rings") — 20 points

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ("Sandwich Day") — 3 points
1.) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" ("One & a Half Men") — 3 points
3.) America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" ("Odor in the Court") — 7 points
4.) Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" ("Bill Sussman") — 9 points
5.) Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" ("The Restraining Order") — 12 points
6.) Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now I Know, Don't Be Scared") — 12 points
7.) Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now You Know") — 14 points
7.) Anna Friel, "Pushing Daisies" ("Bitter Sweets") — 14 points
9.) Eva Longoria Parker, "Desperate Housewives" ("In Buddy's Eyes") — 16 points
10.) Sarah Silverman, "The Sarah Silverman Program" ("Bored of the Rings") — 20 points

Rob's commentary: Tina Fey will benefit greatly from a strong popular vote and from choosing very wisely with her episode, which will have likely garnered quite a few laughs form the panel voters. Similarly, I think Emmy fave Louis-Dreyfus is in much the same position. Ferrera and Parker will score high enough votes to make it through, and then it is a question of exactly how popular "Samantha Who?" actually is –- at this stage, my gut feeling is that Applegate is in, and if there’s a tie, then Huffman is close behind. It is a shame that Silverman’s popular vote would have been on the lower end, which will not help her in making that historic bid in this category.

(Photo: ATAS)

Ray Richmond of the Hollywood Reporter and I don't really hate each other, though I'm sure it might look like that when we get into our frequent slugfests over award predix. In fact, I absolutely love beating up on Ray more than any other journalist — really, and that's saying something. Here we go at it over what will be nominated for Emmys this Thursday morning and, to prove what a noble gent I am, I let Ray have the first word (so that I — ha, ha, ha — could have the last . . . well, at least until nominations come out).

BEST COMEDY SERIES
RAY: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Family Guy," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock"
TOM: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock," "Two and a Half Men"

RAY: Yes, "Family Guy" makes the cut -- not necessarily because it deserves to, but because the TV Academy loses its marbles every once in a while. And this is that once. The only other question is whether "Pushing Daisies" gets pushed out by its ABC sister "Ugly Betty," but Betty has so dropped from the radar I'm thinking not. "Weeds"? Only if Woody Harrelson takes over the voting process from those bean counters in suits.

TOM: Obviously, Ray, you were partying with Woody when you made these Emmy predix if you really think that "Family Guy" will get in over "2.5 Men." The latter's been nominated every year that the TV academy has had these panels — that is, the last two years. The last (and ONLY) time a cartoon sneaked into this comedy lineup was "The Flintstones" MORE THAN 45 YEARS AGO — back before computers, cable TV and double Pinkberry scoops — when the Emmy counters were using real beans.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
RAY & TOM: "Boston Legal," "Damages," "Grey's Anatomy," "House," "Mad Men"

RAY: "Mad Men" and "Damages" are locks. "House" probably is too. I'm thinking "Grey's" gets in over "Lost." "Boston Legal" is in because it is written that David Kelley shall always be in the running in some fashion. "The Wire"? No matter how deserving, it's probably a miracle it made it even this far.

TOM: Uh-oh. Ray and I are in total agreement here. Why does that terrify me so?

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
RAY: Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")
TOM: Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")

RAY: Spader's a lock because he talks so slowly and intensely, it seems, but he ain't winning this time. Hamm's the one to beat seemingly. And the AMC momentum with "Mad Men" could — I pray — carry Cranston in. He is SO deserving. But he could get beaten out by Byrne, just because he's Gabriel Byrne. Hall deserves a nom for sure, and Laurie has deserved to win for three years running. He still does. But he won't. But if he doesn't get nominated, I say firebomb the ATAS headquarters and let's just start over.

TOM: Yeah, Hamm, Laurie and Spader are in. Ray (amazingly) is right about those, but he's wrong about Spader not winning again. Come on, Spader's NEVER LOST. He's gone three for three in this race and the reason he won repeatedly in the past was because writer/producer David E. Kelley kept penning him those grandstanding speeches he'd spew to juries at the end of each episode of "Boston Legal" that he submitted to Emmy judges. This year Spader submits his BIGGEST speech doozy ever — in which he chews out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. How can Hollywood lefties NOT vote THAT? READ MORE

As for Ray's deluded hope that Cranston will get in — well, I'd cheer that if it happened, but it won't. Cranston would have to rank in the top seven or so places in the popular vote and I think that's unlikely for a new, lowly rated, cable show about a guy toying with crystal meth and terminal cancer. Denis Leary's been nommed consistently for the past three years, surviving all wacky, radical changes in the voting process. I see no reason why he suddenly gets bumped now.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
RAY & TOM: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Minnie Driver ("The Riches"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

RAY: This is probably the easiest major category to handicap. It's difficult for me to see it being anyone other than Close, Driver, Field, Hunter and Sedgwick, though Arquette or Moss could pull an upset if enough of their relatives are permitted to vote (and Moss surely would deserve it). Field could also be victimized by backlash to last year's dead-on but controversial acceptance speech ("You gagged me, you really gagged me!"). Close will win, however. End of story.

TOM: Ray and I are in agreement again. Shoot me.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
RAY: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")
TOM: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), David Duchovny ("Californication"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

RAY: Baldwin was jobbed last year in favor of "Extras' Ricky Gervais, and everyone knows it. Probably won't happen again. He and Carell are slam dunks, as is Shalhoub. David only seems to generate greater affection for his misanthropic "Curn" role as the years pile up, so he's likely in too along with the charming Pace (who could be edged out by Emmy darling Garrett, but I don't think so).

TOM: Ray may have blundered upon a smart set of predix here and he may even out-score me because — what the heck — I feel like throwing some Emmy dice. Betting against Shalhoub to return may be foolish. He's been nommed for the last five years, winning three times (2003, 2005, 2006), but his episode entry this year is a bit weak ("Mr. Monk and the Naked Man"), which will bring down his typical judges' score. And I think his popular-vote score will be down, too, because he's old news. Sure, Duchovny's old Emmy news too — he used to be nommed routinely for "The X-Files," so we know that voters love him — and now his comeback in new series "Californication" is sexy.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

Somehow I've managed to coax six suckers brilliant kudos seers to join me in predicting the Emmy nominations that will be announced this Thursday morning: Michael Ausiello (EW.com), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus — our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. To see how we fared predicting the Emmy top 10 lists, CLICK HERE! Below: how we size up the races for best drama and comedy series. To see our predix for best lead actor and actress, CLICK HERE!

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR PREDIX FOR BEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN DRAMA AND COMEDY SERIES!

Lots of Oscar-friendly flicks are being added to the roster at the Toronto Film Festival, including "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Waltz With Bashir, " "The Duchess" — READ MORE

"Pixar's latest gift to movie lovers should be a candidate for the most prestigious award, best picture, when Oscar time rolls around," insists Wall Street Journal critic Joe Morgenstern of "Wall-E" (CLICK HERE). But Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com fights to "keep the Berlin Wall up" between animated and live-action fare. Why? "Biological actuality is too precious and beautiful to sully its textures with hard-drive simulations and vice versa. Sometimes segregation is a good thing." (Ah, if only Jesse Helms had lived long enough to hear Jeff!)

Get ready for Emmy noms by ordering DVDs of these shows so you may view the same sample episodes being judged by voters. Discs of these series are available — click on links: "Mad Men," "Damages," "In Treatment," "Dexter," "Weeds," "Pushing Daisies," "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

I didn't see this week's installment of "At the Movies," but Sasha Stone did and reports at AwardsDaily.com that Richard Roeper claims it'll be an "upset" if Heath Ledger isn't nominated for an Oscar for "The Dark Knight." READ MORE.

There were lots of glitches this year in the video player embedded at the TV academy's website so Emmy voters could view sample episodes of award contenders, reports Broadcasting & Cable. It launched too late in Emmy season and its "playback was a bit jittery," concedes academy awards chief John Leverence. READ MORE

No joke: Sarah Silverman is on the Emmy list of Top 10 semifinalists for best comedy actress. Thus "The Sarah Silverman Program" might score a breakthrough bid for Comedy Central after judges review sample episodes and accountants calculate votes. In past years HBO and Showtime were the only cable channels whose stars were nominated in this category.

Biggest omission from this top 10 list: What do Emmy voters have against Teri Hatcher? While all three of her "Desperate Housewives" costars — Marcia Cross, Felicity Huffman and even the vampy Eva Longoria Parker — made the cut, Hatcher got snubbed. Also missing from the list of funny ladies: past winner Patricia Heaton ("Back to You") and, on a lighter note, Miley Cyrus ("Hannah Montana").

Today members of the TV acting's acting branch who serve as judges of the Emmy performance categories began receiving sample series episodes with their ballots. Judges are permitted to view them leisurely at home, but must sign an affidavit attesting that they watched all DVDs. They rank the entries 10 (best score) to 1. Accountants combine their scores with results of the original popular vote on a 50-50 basis, then determine the nominees, which will be unveiled July 17.

While the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences released the top 10 lists of contenders for best comedy and drama series last week, it announced that it will not disclose the acting lists. However, Gold Derby is now starting to get word and will publish results over the next few days, just as we have over the previous two years when the academy refused to release any info. We hope that our disclosures will hike pressure on academy to disclose all semifinalist info — as the Oscars and Daytime Emmys do as a matter of open policy.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" ("The Restraining Order")
Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now You Know")
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" ("Odor in the Court")
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ("Sandwich Day")
Anna Friel, "Pushing Daisies" ("Bitter Sweets")
Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" ("Now I Know, Don't Be Scared")
Eva Longoria Parker, "Desperate Housewives" ("In Buddy's Eyes")
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" ("One and a Half Men")
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" ("Bill Sussman")
Sarah Silverman, "The Sarah Silverman Program" ("Bored of the Rings")

(Comedy Central / ABC)

The TV academy hasn't admitted it, but its chiefs will probably unveil the rest of the top 10 Emmy finalists — the ones for acting — next week after they're done basking in the huzzahs over their comedy and drama lists. (And well deserved! Congrats, TV academy!)

Below are the predix of our Emmy gurus: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Marc Berman (Media Week), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. Comedy predix are below. To see drama predix, CLICK HERE!

THERE'S MORE! KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!