Paula Abdul may not be returning to "American Idol" this season, but she can take comfort that she trumped the newest judge – Kara DioGuardi – when it came to hauling home showbiz hardware. And she also outdid the rest of the original panel –  Simon Cowell and Randy Jackson – as well as host Ryan Seacrest in the awards derby.

Paula Abdul won a Grammy way back in 1990 for best short-form music video for the track "Opposites Attract." And she also has a pair of Emmy Awards for choreography.

Paula Abdul won an Emmy on her own in 1989 for "The Tracy Ullman Show" and was one of three choreographers on the 1990 "American Music Awards" (along with Dean Barlow and Michael Darrin) to tie with Walter Painter, who choreographed the opening of the Disney-MGM studios. She had been a solo nominee in 1988 for "The Tracy Ullman Show" but lost to Alan Johnson, who handled the dance numbers in the song-filled "Irving Berlin's 100th Birthday Celebration."

Kara DioGuardi was a Latin Grammy nominee for co-writing a 2007 song of the year contender, "Bella Traicion." She shared the nomination with the track's singer, Belinda, as well as Mitch Allan, Ben Moody and Nacho Peregrin. They lost the race to Juan Luis Guerra's "La Llave de Mi Corazon," which also won record of the year. "Bella Traicion" wasn't nominated for that top honor.

DioGuardi has won other kudos. In 2003, she took home a BMI Cable Award for co-writing and performing "Somethin' to Say," the theme to the now-canceled Lifetime network series "For the People," which starred Lea Thompson, Debbi Morgan, A. Martinez and Cecilia Suarez. And she was named BMI's pop songwriter of the year for 2006, as she had accumulated 10 BMI awards in the previous four years for having written the "most performed songs on the radio."

The three original "American Idol" judges are listed among the nominees for the first five bids by the show in the reality competition program Emmy race. They were dropped from the slate both last season and this. "The Amazing Race" has owned this category since it was introduced in 2003.

"American Idol" emcee Ryan Seacrest was also listed as a nominee for those first five losing bids. Last year, he contended in the first Emmy race for best reality show host, losing to Jeff Probst of "Survivor." Seacrest is back in the hunt this year. He won a special class Daytime Emmy for his work on the "Walt Disney World Christmas Day Parade" and picked up a Teen Choice Award in 2007 for his "hissy fit" in "Knocked Up."

Paula Abdul announced Tuesday via Twitter that she will not be returning to "American Idol" for the upcoming ninth season. Abdul – along with Simon Cowell and Randy Jackson  – has been judging "American Idol' since Season 1 in 2002. This surprising news comes just hours after it was confirmed that Kara DioGuardi is returning to the "American Idol" judging panel this season. Auditions in front of the judges begin Thursday in Denver.

Paula Abdul had been negotiating a new contract to remain on "American Idol." She was said to be seeking a substantial increase to her current pay of between $2 million and $4 million. While Fox was said to be willing to go above $5 million per season, in the end the two sides could not agree on a final number.

Paula Abdul disclosed her decision to leave the show in a series of posts to Twitter. "With sadness in my heart, I've decided not to return to Idol," came first, followed in quick succession by three more tweets: "I'll miss nurturing all the new talent, but most of all being a part of a show that I helped from day 1 become an international phenomenon," and then, "What I want to say most, is how much I appreciate the undying support and enormous love that you have showered upon me" and, finally, "It truly has been breathtaking, especially over the past month."

"American Idol" emcee Ryan Seacrest – who just inked a three-year deal for at least $30 million – responded to the news via Twitter as well.  First he wrote, "About to go to sleep when I started seeing my blackberry blow up. I have read what u have read and I am shocked and saddened about paula." Then he added, "Idol and the cast have grown with each other over the last 8 seasons. I can't imagine the panel without paula. She's a star and a great friend."

Let's fend off the nuclear attacks against Kris Allen now that he blasted Adam Lambert in the "American Idol" battle. Whether he survives and thrives ahead with a successful music career — winning Grammys and achieving the sales and critical respect he craves — may be discerned perhaps by observing how similar artists have fared so far.

According to the posters in The Envelope's forums, the new "American Idol" winner fits the chiseled profiles of John Mayer, Jason Mraz, Rob Thomas and Jack Johnson. Not only have they all reaped mega-sales, but, in terms of earning industry respect, they'll all been nominated in the pop categories at the Grammys. Mayer and Thomas won. Mraz was also nominated for one of the top four prizes, best song ("I'm Yours"), a laurel John Mayer claimed for "Daughters." Thomas nabbed one of the other top Grammy trophies: best record ("Smooth," shared with Santana).

Lauren Christy, a member of producing team behind Mraz (plus Grammy grabbers Christina Aguilera and Britney Spears) told MTV News, "Kris is a heartthrob for the girls and has the looks and voice to carry a great pop career. You could liken him to Nick Lachey or Adam Levine from Maroon 5."

Maroon 5 won three Grammys, including one of the top four: best new artist. Nick Lachey hasn't been nominated, but he got deserving bids for "What's Left of Me" from the American Music Awards and MTV Video Music Awards.
 

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After pulling off a shockeroo upset on "American Idol" over Adam Lambert, Kris Allen said, "The only thing I want to do is to be respected in the music industry and my music be respected. Whether that means selling albums or winning Grammys or just people liking your music — that's all I really want to do."

So far, only two of "American Idol's" eight champs have grabbed Grammys. Carrie Underwood won one of that award's four highest honors — best new artist (she's the only "Idol" contestant ever nominated in that race) — plus three trophies in the country categories. Kelly Clarkson has won two in the pop field.

Among "Idol" losers, seventh-place contestant Jennifer Hudson won a Grammy in February for best R&B album for her eponymous disc. Of course, she also has an Oscar, Golden Globes and slew of other golden statuettes.

Kris Allen won't be joining the above stars if two New York Times writers are correct in their assessments of his talent. Frank Rich calls him bland and Jon Caramanica adds, "At best, Mr. Allen is a harmless singer — he makes Kenny Loggins look tough. At worst, he’s indefensible, utterly lacking in texture and range and interpretive imagination."

But, oh, come on! Allen demonstrated impressive singing chops while crooning such numbers on stage as "Ain't No Sunshine" and "Heartless," which suggests that he has true promise that could lead to Grammy greatness someday.

Throughout this season of "American Idol," Adam Lambert was widely proclaimed to be the front-runner, even by the notoriously fickle Simon Cowell, who called him a brilliant artist, showman and "worldwide star." Victory by Kris Allen is such a blatant rejection of industry and critical opinion, we must wonder: Does it diminish the credibility of the show?

For Jon Caramanica of the New York Times, "At best, Mr. Allen is a harmless singer — he makes Kenny Loggins look tough. At worst, he’s indefensible, utterly lacking in texture and range and interpretive imagination. His awww-shucks demeanor spills over to his performances, in which his chin jerks violently to the right every time he’s aiming for a big note, as if his mouth is struggling to deliver what his brain is asking for."

However, as Whitney Pastorek of Entertainment Weekly explained, "Adam Lambert was never going to win this show, but I don't think it had anything to do with platform boots or flaming bombast or some vast red state/Mormon/hillbilly/Miss California conspiracy. I think it had more to do with the fact that the sort of people who would be inclined to like Adam Lambert are not as inclined to watch this show as the sort of people who would be inclined to like Kris Allen."

And as Ann Powers of the Los Angeles Times pointed out, "Allen has his undeniable strong points. In terms of the music industry, he cuts a more contemporary figure than Lambert: Many stars now (specifically rock-oriented, male ones) tend to do better when they draw themselves to scale, offering songs that make fans feel warm and connected, not blown away."

Though the public may have preferred the soft rock of Kris Allen, Adam Lambert's hard edge certainly made for better TV. And the ultimate judges of that aspect of "American Idol" will be the Emmy voters. Over its first seven seasons, "American Idol" has struck out repeatedly at the Emmy Awards, winning only two of its 34 bids. And neither of those wins came in the top race of best reality competition program. Indeed, since that category was introduced in 2003, "The Amazing Race" has won all six years.

Just because Adam Lambert has the most buzz and the highest Cool Factor doesn't mean he's a cinch to win "American Idol." Many "Idol" fans have mistakenly underestimated Kris Allen over and over again in the past.

Last year, remember, most polls projected an easy win by David Archuletta over David Cook. Then, everybody's jaw dropped when the actual victor was declared "American Idol" champ.

Victory may not even be decided by who has the most music talent. Winner is the chap with the most votes. Adam Lambert's disciples may be complacent, may make the mistake to think he's got this in the bag. However, Kris Allen fans, driven by the zeal of pushing hard for the underdog, may text in dozens more votes each.

Bottom line: It may not even matter who wins "American Idol." Clay Aiken's had a more notable career than winner Ruben Studdard. Heck, Jennifer Hudson came in seventh place, but now has an Oscar, Grammy, Golden Globe and a slew of other showbiz awards that winner Fantasia Barrino doesn't own.

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With more than 9,000 voters piping in, Adam Lambert has a substantial lead over Kris Allen (68% vs 32%) in our poll asking this question: Which "American Idol" contestant will win more showbiz awards during their future careers?
 
"This article is ludicrous!" cried a reader in the comments section of one of our "American Idol"-Grammy pieces. "Mr. O'Neil, if your intent was to rile everyone up, then you succeeded," fumes another reader. 

Those outcries are typical of many comments by posters furious — or baffled — by us daring to ask such a question. What's the problem? Isn't "American Idol" everyman's equivalent to the Grammys? The TV singing contest purports to tell us what average folk think of these performers. Why can't we compare them to the winners of the industry's Grammy?

On one hand, the pondering might reveal who'll win "Idol." Carrie Underwood is a fine example of someone who's won both contests. She's claimed four Grammys over all, including one of the top four prizes: best new artist.  Maybe Kelly Clarkson too — she's won two Grammys in the pop categories.

However, success at one music contest doesn't necessarily mean payoff at the other. Among "Idol" losers, Jennifer Hudson has not only won a Grammy but an Oscar too. Chris Daughtry's self-titled band hasn't won a Grammy, but it has scored four nominations.

But that's not what has gotten Gold Derby readers so riled up. It's that we had the audacity to ask: Is it possible for Allen to win "Idol" but Lambert to have the most enduring music career as measured by showbiz awards? Scroll through the comments in response and you'll see such outcries as "This is the stupidest article!"

Our posters also popped their cyber-corks when we had the audacity to wonder: Will Adam Lambert turn out to be a loser after winning 'American Idol'? Scroll through the comments section and you'll see this doozy reply: "This is the most biased and ridiculous article I have read all day." Another poster harrumphs in a grammatically challenged way: "You sure got a lot of hate, didn't you?"

While we compare how America's Grammys have fared opposite the music biz's Grammys, it's relevant to explore how the "American Idol" TV show has fared when judged by the TV industry's highest honor: the Emmy.

If Adam Lambert wins "American Idol" this week, as expected, where will he be in several years? Touring America's backwaters in old stage musicals like Taylor Hicks — or else not doing much at all like Ruben Studdard? Or will Adam Lambert be seen collecting major awards at podiums like past champs Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson?

If Kris Allen wins "American Idol," I can see parallels to top Grammy grabbers like Rob Thomas and John Mayer, as I reported earlier. But there's a problem trying to peg Adam Lambert. When was the last time we had his equivalent sweep the Grammys? The last guy who wore as much eyeliner as Lambert and won the Grammy for best record of the year was Billie Joe Armstrong and Green Day ("Boulevard of Broken Dreams," 2006), who's a lot more macho than Lambert. That quality sometimes is key to success in the music biz since CD sales are largely driven by love-struck gals.

But there are exceptions among past top Grammy champs. George Michael won album of the year for "Faith" in 1989. Michael Jackson won best album ("Triller") and record ("Beat It") in 1984. Both stars are a bit more androgynous. Do you think those are apt parallels? Or is success limited nowadays to the swaggering likes of Chris Martin and Coldplay ("Clocks," best record of 2004) and Bono and U2 (best album winners for "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb" in 2006 and "The Joshua Tree" in 1988, best record champs for "Walk On" in 2002 and "Beautiful Day" in 2001)?

If you haven't yet voted in our poll — (Who'll win the most showbiz awards, Kris Allen or Adam Lambert?) — pipe in here.

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Virtually all of the alleged "American Idol" "experts" have consistently underestimated Kris Allen while ballyhooing Adam Lambert as the inevitable champ. What if Kris Allen surprises again?

Romantically speaking, Allen is more of a heartthrob type. He may have a much bigger, secret fan base among the gum-snapping girls who set off tsunamis of text and phone votes that decide winners each week. Furthermore, Lambert likes to jump off cliffs, creatively speaking. What if he goes splat during the final face-off?

When Gold Derby polled readers, asking who  -- Lambert or Allen -- will end up winning the most showbiz awards during their future careers, regardless of who wins "American Idol," Lambert stomped. He scored 73% of the votes. But will that prove to be true?

Again, that view may just be a reflection of bossy assumptions pushed by the "Idol" judges and producers. Lambert's mysterious sexuality may be a turn-off among music-buyers, who may gobble up more CDs from the more macho Allen. That could give Allen a vastly larger fan base and a much bigger, longer career during which he could win lots more industry awards.

Never mind who will win "American Idol" next week. Will Kris Allen or Adam Lambert emerge as the biggest winner in the future when judging their music careers?

Remember, Jennifer Hudson merely came in seventh place in Season 3 of "American Idol," but now her house is sinking under the weight of all those awards on her mantle, including an Oscar and Golden Globe ("Dreamgirls") plus Grammy ("Jennifer Hudson"). 

Hey, where's Ruben Studdard today? And let's be honest: Taylor Hicks is lucky to have a spot in the road tour of "Grease" after everybody in America decided not to buy his CDs. By comparison: After Taylor Hicks won in 2006, the band behind the fourth-place finisher, Chris Daughtry, went on to score four Grammy nominations and win four American Music Awards.

Of course, sometimes the "American Idol" winner actually does — egads — become successful, trophies and all. First-year champ Kelly Clarkson has claimed a few Grammys, MTV Video Music Awards, American Music Awards, Teen Choice Awards, even a People's Choice Award. Season 4 victor Carrie Underwood won best new artist at the Grammys plus gads of country music prizes.

A few months ago, when the current season of "American Idol" was still unfurling, I asked this question about the top 10 finalists: Who'll go on to win the most showbiz awards?

Kris Allen merely came in sixth place in our Gold Derby poll, with 4.6% of the vote. Ahead of him were: Adam Lambert (53.8%), Allison Iraheta (13.2%), Danny Gokey (7.9%), Matt Giraud (7.3%) and Lil Rounds (4.8%). Now what do you think, my dear Derbyites?

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