Here's a snapshot of what we see on the Derby track right now.

* = Top 10 semifinalist in 2008

** = Nominee in 2008

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
(Front-runners)
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" **
Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" *
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" **
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" ** (WINNER IN 2008)
Teri Hatcher, "Desperate Housewives"
Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives" *
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" **
Eva Longoria-Parker, "Desperate Housewives" *
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" **
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Nicollette Sheridan, "Desperate Housewives"
Sarah Silverman, "The Sarah Silverman Program" *

Are you among the viewers who felt, like some TV critics, that the pilot episode of "Parks and Recreation" didn't live up to its promise? Relax. Give these proven geniuses a break. "Parks and Recreation" is by the same wizards who gave us "The Office" (Greg Daniels and Mike Schur) and "Saturday Night Live" (the white-hot Amy Poehler) — who need a little time to tinker with the gears of their Porsche. TV series with this potential payoff don't come around very often. It's worth hanging in there to see where this baby goes — and how fast it takes off. I have a hunch it will.

Let's assume it does and then let's assume Amy Poehler gets nominated for best comedy actress this year at the Emmys. There's a very good chance that could happen considering that the contenders will be chosen by a popular ballot and the number of nominees per category will be expanded this year to six or seven from the usual five.

If Poehler gets nominated, that means Emmy nuts like you and me can look forward to a fascinating clawfest: Poehler, the scrappy rookie, taking on heavyweight champ Tina Fey (lead actress winner, "30 Rock," 2008), who also happens to be her best friend. The two former costars are now appearing in their own TV series, slugging it out for the gold. Remind you of any parallels?

In 1975, Valerie Harper split with her former costar, Mary Tyler Moore, to launch her own spin-off sitcom "Rhoda." At the next Emmys, the onetime best pals squared off in the same kind of dishy bout. Everyone assumed that Moore — the Lucille Ball of her day — would clobber Harper. If anyone could topple the TV queen, it might be Jean Stapleton ("All in the Family"), but not Harper. Harper portrayed Rhoda as a gum-snapping wisecracker. Her character didn't have the emotional depth of Mary Richards, say, or Edith Bunker, right?

But on Emmy night all jaws— including Harper's — dropped when she pulled an Eve Harrington and nabbed the gold prize. At the podium, Harper acknowledged Moore gratefully and gleefully. The L.A. Times noted that she also "felt compelled to thank everyone profusely," including her analyst.

But Moore ended up getting a royal consolation prize at the end of the Emmy ceremony. When the last envelope of the night was opened, it revealed that the winner of best comedy series was "The Mary Tyler Moore Show." The news was trumpeted by Lucille Ball in a scene that is remembered today as one of those goose-bump times in Emmy history. When Moore arrived on stage and took the golden statuette from Ball's hand — looking wonderstruck, taking in the grand context of the scene — we saw comedy's scepter and crown being passed from one generation to another. Hail, hail TV's queens!

One more got hailed last year when "30 Rock" won best comedy series for a second time in a row and Tina Fey was handed the prize by Mary Tyler Moore and Betty White (see video below). Click HERE to KEEP READING!

Cheer up, Amy Poehler fans. Just because some TV critics aren't wild about the pilot episode of "Parks and Recreation," her new sitcom debuting tonight on NBC, doesn't mean it can't rally in coming weeks — and at the upcoming Emmys. Many of the critics pooh-poohing "Parks and Recreation" as a weak imitation of  "The Office" — from the show's same creators, Greg Daniels and Mike Schur — are the same sourpusses who once dismissed NBC's "The Office" as a pale imitation of the hit British original starring Ricky Gervais. The re-tooled Yankee version of "The Office" got the last laugh, winning the Emmy for comedy series at the end of its first season (2005-2006).

"Parks and Recreation" has some quick catching up to do, being a mid-season, spring replacement series with just a handful of episodes airing before the end of the Emmy eligibility period (May 31), but that timing can also be beneficial, since it'll be fresh on voters' minds.

But the race for best comedy series is no laughing matter this year. Of the five nominees last year, "30 Rock" (winner in 2007 and 2008), "Entourage," "The Office" and "Two and a Half Men" look like good bets to return. "Curb Your Enthusiasm" isn't eligible. Which show will claim the remaining slots? Remember, due to a new rule change, there will be six or seven nominees instead of the usual five. No new show has been a break-out smash hit. "United States of Tara" was well received. Ditto "Better Off Ted." However, neither had socko ratings, which matter a lot because the nominees will now be determined strictly by a popular ballot. There won't be judging panels this year to boost a lower-rated show's chances. "Parks and Recreation" will benefit from being a hugely touted prestige series airing on NBC's Thursday night lineup.

Every year the most lunatic Emmy gurus like me make a special point of watching the episodes that nominees for best acting in a series submit to voters. They all give one sample of their best work to judges, who must sign an affidavit attesting they viewed everything required in a given category before voting.

But how much do the episodes really make a difference in the voting process anymore? That's the big question pundits must decipher when forecasting Hollywood's most unpredictable award. Before 2000, the episodes mattered almost exclusively. Back then voters viewed them at judging panels conducted at the Beverly Hilton Hotel and they had to vote immediately afterward when still feeling the full emotional impact of submissions. As a result, the flashiest and most sentimental episodes usually paid off with victory.

But the voting process changed this decade, and now judges view them at home and can ink their ballots later. Since then, industry buzz and the Cool Factor have played a larger role deciding who wins as voters have time to be reminded of those points while having some emotional distance between themselves and the episodes.

Clearly, Bryan Cranston''s episode of "Breaking Bad" is what cinched the upset victory for a show that's mustered only wee viewership for its seven episodes telecast. Portraying a guy who wigs out and goes on a drug spree when he finds out he's dying of cancer, Bryan Cranston gave the most volcanic and showy performance among the six up for best actor.

Also, Glenn Close ("Damages") and Jeremy Piven ("Entourage") had the most dynamic, or nearly so, episode entries in their categories.

But that certainly wasn't true of Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment"). That leads me to wonder: Did they win based upon buzz and Cool Factor alone? If so, why didn't that pay off for Fey's "Saturday Night Live" costar Amy Poehler, who's almost as cool as her cohort? The vast majority of Emmy pundits predicted Poehler would win, if for no other reason than because she had the longest episode entry in terms of face-time minutes. Usually, that pays off with triumph.

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

In our podcast chat, Amy Poehler makes this promise about her race to win the Emmy for best supporting comedy actress: "There's going to be lots of drama!"

The "Saturday Night Live" star admits things could even get physical: "There may be some last-minute injuries. There might be some Nancy Kerrigan, Tonya Harding thing coming your way. You never know . . . . Maybe I'll reject the award on behalf of someone. I'll think of something controversial. It's better to burn out than fade away, right?" CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Hear Our Chat. Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.

Amy Poehler may be tiny (5 feet, 2 inches), angelic-looking and very pregnant (she's due a month after the Emmys), but she's already proved to be a big, tough contender. When Emmy rules changed this year and stars of variety shows were moved over to compete in the categories for comedy acting, only Poehler made it among the cast of "Saturday Night Live."

And she has an excellent chance of winning. Emmy judges evaluate just one sample episode entered by each nominee and Amy Poehler submitted a doozy — the one in which Tina Fey returns as host. While other nominees up for supporting actress in a comedy will have, typically, about 10 minutes of face time, Poehler has a good half-hour of various roles showcasing her diverse talents as an actress.

"I probably rocked about 10 different looks in that episode and probably burned through a lot of wigs," she recalls. "Purely by wig count, I've got a good chance."

Amy Poehler describes that "Saturday Night Live" episode as "a perfect storm" because it included her reunion with Tina Fey and included "lots of characters" (including Hillary Clinton) and "some topical political stuff."

Lucky for Poehler, Emmy odds also look good for her husband Will Arnett, who is nominated in the guest categories as Alec Baldwin's rival corporate titan on "30 Rock."

The Emmys may become a family affair in another way. Since she's pregnant, what if her water breaks that night?

"It's just like 'SNL,'" she says quite cavalierly. "It's going to be very live and I have to say that I'm used to live TV, so it'll keep things nice and dangerous."

She'll certainly be cutting her schedule dangerously close that weekend. She has to appear on "Saturday Night Live" the night before the Emmys. To make sure she gets out to the award ceremony on time and safely, NBC execs have offered her and Will the use of a corporate jet.

"I don't think they'll let this pregnant lady fly commercial!" she says.

(NBC)