Uh-oh! Kate Winslet's vote-splitting has officially begun! The Satellite Awards just nominated Kate Winslet in the best-actress race for "The Reader" instead of "Revolutionary Road," thus ignoring her campaign to put the "Reader" role in supporting. However, both films are up for best drama picture, but there are several, big curious omissions in that race: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Doubt" and "The Dark Knight." The latter snub is especially bizarre considering Christopher Nolan is up for best director.

The other contenders for best drama pic: "Slumdog Millionaire," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and — surprise — "Frozen River." The pix up for best comedy/musical: "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist," "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," "Tropic Thunder," "In Bruges," "Choke." Notable snubs: "Burn After Reading," "Mamma Mia!" and "High School Musical 3," which all could rally at the Golden Globes.

None of the helmers of those comedies got a bid for best director. In addition to Nolan, the nominees for that race: Thomas McCarthy ("The Visitor"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Gus Van Sant ("Milk"), Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"), Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire") and Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). The snub of Sam Mendes ("Revolutionary Road") is surprising.

There are lots of other peculiarities in this year's list. "Australia" has nine nominations, but none for best picture. Penelope Cruz is considered to be a front-runner at the Oscars in the supporting race, but she isn't nominated by the Satellites for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," which is up for best comedy. She did score a bid for "Elegy," though. "Benjamin Button" is based upon a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, but it's nommed in the category for original screenplays.

The Satellites are bestowed by a rebel group of foreign journos who broke off from the Golden Globes back in the early 1990s. Often their tastes reflect the views of their foreign colleagues, who in turn mirror the outcome of the Oscars. But often the views of the Satellites can also seem like they're beamed in from the planet Neptune.

Last year they nominated only two of Oscar's five best-picture contenders: "Juno" and "No Country for Old Men." At least they managed to include the winner. Last year's Oscar champ as best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), wasn't nominated, but the film was probably absent from all races because voters didn't see the late-year release in time. (The same is probably true this year for "Gran Torino," which is snubbed.) In fact, the Satellites forecast only two of Oscar's best-actor finalists: Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah"). However, they did tap all best-actress contenders.

How do the Satellites compare to the Globes? Just as often as they agree, they seem to disagree — drastically. Last year the Satellites for best picture went to "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno." Globers preferred "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd." In 2007, the two awards agreed again on best comedy/musical ("Dreamgirls"), but the Globes chose "Babel" for best picture while the Satellites opted for "The Departed." The previous year both kudos picked "Brokeback Mountain" and "Walk the Line." In 2004, they split: Both chose "Sideways" as best comedy/musical pic, but the Satellites opted for "Hotel Rwanda" as best drama and the Globes went for "The Aviator."

Below is a partial list of nominees. See full list at the Satellites' website. The awards will be bestoed on Dec. 14 at the Century City InterContinental Hotel.

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
"The Reader "
"Slumdog Millionaire "
"Revolutionary Road "
"Frost/Nixon "
"Milk "
"Frozen River "

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
"Happy-Go-Lucky "
"Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist "
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona "
"Tropic Thunder "
"In Bruges "
"Choke "

Pundits are constantly updating their Oscars predix at the Envelope's Buzzmeter, so remember to keep checking back often. (Bookmark THIS LINK for quick access in the future.)

Below is a sampling of newest predix from top gurus, who include Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Lou Lumenick (New York Post), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) and moi.

Notice how close the battle is over best picture. While four of these seven seers pick "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," two of us naysayers back "Slumdog Millionaire" and one opts for "Milk." All four "Button" backers put "Slumdog Millionaire" in second place. I — a "Slumdog" supporter — list "Button" as the runner-up."

Views are split over best actor: three votes for Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), two for Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"), one for Sean Penn ("Milk") and one for Leo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road").

Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") zooms ahead of previous front-runner Meryl Streep ("Doubt") with four votes to one. Streep even falls behind Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"), who has two votes.

Photo: Miramax

In the best-actress derby right now there seem to be two good bets for nominations: Meryl Streep ("Doubt") and Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road" or "The Reader"), but one of them is actually vulnerable. (More on that later.) Anne Hathaway looks likely, but — ummm — she's not quite a slam dunk. She just got a nice boost this past week, though, when Sony Pictures Classic shipped DVDs of "Rachel Getting Married" to Oscar voters before the Thanksgiving rush.

Other rivals with the best hope of snagging a nom probably come from this batch of five contenders: Cate Blanchett ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"), Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky"), Angelina Jolie ("Changeling"), Nicole Kidman ("Australia") and Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"). Outside shots: Melissa Leo ("Frozen River"), Michelle Williams ("Wendy and Lucy"), Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing but the Truth"), Emma Thompson ("Last Chance Harvey") and Penelope Cruz ("Elegy").

Cate Blanchett has two things going for her. First, she stars in what many Oscar gurus consider to be the best-picture front-runner, which is always a plus. Secondly, academy members adore her so much personally that they seem to nominate Cate Blanchett for anything, even two films they didn't like last year ("Elizabeth: The Golden Age," "I'm Not There"). However, the "Benjamin Button" roles played by Blanchett and costar Brad Pitt are rather emotionally passive. They don't showcase the kind of theatrical grandstanding that voters often like to see.

What about Angelina Jolie? Last year she seemed like a shoo-in for a bid after scoring strong critical reviews for "A Mighty Heart." She got nominated by virtually every other award (Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, Indie Spirit), but, alas, got snubbed by Oscar. Part of that was probably the fault of the film's subject matter, which was shrugged off widely by academy members. Other movies about the Mideast war fell short of Oscar expectations too ("In the Valley of Elah," "Charlie Wilson's War"). Also, it was a summer release that bombed in theaters. It helps that "Changeling" is a late-year release, closer to Oscar voting, but it also was a financial disappointment. Produced for $55 million, "Changeling" reaped only $34 million worldwide ($29.7 million U.S., $4.4 million global).

Jolie hasn't been nominated since she won in the supporting race in 1999 ("Girl, Interrupted"). It's possible that Hollywood is punishing her for her tabloid life, but she continues to gain respect in the public's eyes. According to the New York Times, "Jolie's Q score, a measurement of a star's likability, has continued to increase. Around the time she won her Oscar, 13% of people surveyed viewed her positively, according to Marketing Evaluations. The average rating for female stars is 18%. Today, about 24% of respondents view Jolie positively."

Nicole Kidman gives a truly winning performance in "Australia," looming luminously over virtually every scene in the 2-hour, 35-minute epic. She got nominated the last time she starred in a Baz Luhrmann pic ("Moulin Rouge!"). Both films are unapologetically campy and, ahem, overly theatrical, but "Moulin Rouge!" didn't pretend to be serious. "Australia" plays it straight, with occasional winks to the audience. Its lighthearted touches may detract from its seriousness in the eyes of notoriously pretentious voters. Nicole doesn't need to win over the whole acting branch, though. She just needs a goodly chunk of No. 1 votes from a faithful minority in order to be nominated and, based upon the fanatically enthusiastic response of some viewers like Oprah Winfrey, Nicole may get those.

Film critics are all gushing over Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long"), who was nominated for best actress for "The English Patient" (1996). That means she'll have a strong rooting contingent too. It helps that her performance is in French, just like that of last year's winner, Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") — that gives it snob appeal. But I think Kristin Scott Thomas has the same problem that Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") faces in the best-actor race. Both performances are extremely reserved. We observe the anguish that their characters suffer, but it's deeply internalized. Not until late in their movies do we see any emotional fireworks, each expressed in one sole scene. Is that enough?

I think that a lot of Oscar pundits are mistakenly downplaying the chances of Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky"). Curiously, she has the same problem as Kristin Scott Thomas, but in a different way. She also has only one big, flashy eruption late in her movie, but before then, instead of being emotionally reserved all the time, she's unflaggingly perky. Almost annoyingly so. But that also makes her enormously appealing and lovable to many viewers, which boosts her rooting factor. Voters who might be tempted to dismiss her constant chirpiness as fluffy thesping may shrug that off because her flick has snooty art-house credentials. It's directed by Mike Leigh, whose past films paid off with best-actress nominations for Imelda Staunton ("Vera Drake") and Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies").

Lucky for Melissa Leo, "Frozen River" was the first DVD screener sent to voters this derby season back in late September. Her performance is dynamic and worthy of an Oscar nom, yes, but frankly, the character is haggard — not sexy to many of those older dudes in the academy who usually prefer babes. That's cruel to say — sorry — but it's true. Still, there have been many exceptions to that voter trend in the past, of course — like Staunton and Blethyn — but Leo probably needs the same boost that those gals got: a top award from one of the early, prestigious film critics' groups.

Michelle Williams' critically praised performance will get serious attention this derby season thanks to sympathy in the aftermath of Heath Ledger's tragic death, but many Oscar pundits believe the plot of "Wendy and Lucy" is too lightweight. They just don't care if Wendy (Williams) gets reunited with her dog Lucy after it's tossed in the pound.

There are other serious contenders too, but the software of our Envelope poll only permits 10 entries, so I had to curtail the list.

Penelope Cruz is aces in "Elegy," which was sent via DVD to the academy's acting branch in October, but most Oscar gurus think that she's such a stand-out as a gun-toting crazed ex-lover in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" that she'll be considered chiefly for that role in the supporting slot.

Kate Beckinsale gives the performance of her career as a journo who goes to jail to keep her sources secret in "Nothing but the Truth," and she got lots of praise from film critics who first saw the film at the Toronto fest in September, but early Oscar buzz isn't strong. That's probably because the film doesn't open in theaters till late next month, which is a mistake. Little, struggling indie flicks like this need to get out early in the derby in order to build traction. That didn't used to be the case, but it's been true ever since the Oscars moved up from March to February in 2003. Now it seems that only the big, high-profile pics can debut so late.

Art-house flick "Wendy and Lucy," which debuts in theaters on Dec. 10, may also pay a terrible price for lateness, but Michelle Williams gets special notice now because of her personal back story.

Even though Emma Thompson is a past Oscar fave, I think she may be penalized for the late release of "Last Chance Harvey" (Dec. 25) too. She gives a soulful performance as a lonely middle-aged gal aching for love, but the best-actress category is crowded this year and the film may not stand out as being special enough to merit the attention of voters scrambling to see dozens of other films before they get nomination ballots about the time "Harvey" hits theaters.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Slumdog Millionaire" and "The Dark Knight" assume the win, place and show positions in the Oscars' race for best picture, according to our latest batch of prognosticators: Brad Brevet (Rope of Silicon), Anthony Breznican (USA Today), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Mark Olsen (The Envelope), Jeffrey Sneider (The Insneider, contributor to Variety), Kris Tapley (InContention.com) and Tom Tapp (TheDailyBeast.com).

Tied for first place in the best actor race with two votes each are Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), Sean Penn ("Milk") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler"). Meryl Streep ("Doubt") remains ahead in the actress' contest, but Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road") has gained so much momentum in recent days that she's in solid second place, bumping Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married").

Compare these predix to others we pooled recently from other Oscar seers HERE, HERE and HERE.

Photos: Miramax, Paramount Vantage

For our newest round of Oscars predix, we made things tougher on our prophets. Instead of asking them merely to give us five films they believe will be nominated in the top three races, we asked them to rank each entry 1 (most likely to win) to 5. The result: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire" each got two votes for best pic; "The Dark Knight" reaped one. Leading the acting races with three votes each: Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon") and Meryl Streep ("Doubt").

Joining me in making daredevil predix: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly), Edward Douglas (ComingSoon.net), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

To read my full analysis of this category race and pipe in with your vote, CLICK HERE!

(Paramount, Fox Searchlight)

Just got an interesting e-mail from my pal Tariq Khan, a journalist at Fox News who is an ace Oscarologist. He's worried that poor, Oscar-overdue Kate Winslet (five losses so far) might end up getting totally shut out this year despite having two strong roles in the running. Or, actually, because she has two roles, which could split her votes.

It's happened often in the past. Think Michael Douglas in 2000 ("Wonder Boys," "Traffic"). Tariq cites a lot more examples. If you want to check out his prowess at Oscar prognostication, read the perfect predix he penned last year for Fox News HERE.

Below, Tariq's e-mail:

Kate Winslet may very well emerge as a double Oscar-nominee this year, for best lead actress in "Revolutionary Road" and best supporting actress in "The Reader." However, there's also a very real possibility that her name could go unannounced on nomination day.

If members of the actors branch decide that she's clearly leading in both films (as they might do), she faces the danger of splitting her high-ranking votes on the nomination ballots. If half of her supporters vote for her for "Road" and the other half for "Reader," she could end up without enough points to score in the top five. And with the best-actress race looking as fiercely competitive as it does now (Meryl Streep in "Doubt," Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married," Angelina Jolie in "Changeling," Kristin Scott Thomas in "I've Loved You So Long," Sally Hawkins in "Happy- Go-Lucky" and Cate Blanchett in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") Winslet needs every vote that she can get.

If this does happen, Winslet can take consolation in the fact that other actors have suffered the same tragic fate. In 2003, Cate Blanchett had strong lead roles in both "Veronica Guerin" and "The Missing." She received a Golden Globe nod for the former, yet more Oscar campaigning for the latter. She ended up with Oscar nods for neither, being bumped by dark-horse contenders Keisha Castle-Hughes in "Whale Rider" and Samantha Morton in "In America." I firmly believe that if Blanchett had only appeared in one of those films that year, she would have been nominated.

In 2001, Billy Bob Thornton gave acclaimed performances in "Monster's Ball," "The Man Who Wasn't There" and "Bandits." He was named best actor for all three by the National Board of Review, and earned Golden Globe nominations in the dramatic category for "Man" and in the comedy category for "Bandits." He seemed a good bet for an Oscar nod too. But when the honors were announced, Thornton's name was nowhere to be found. I suspect that he probably just missed for "Monster's Ball," losing the slot that went to Will Smith for "Ali." If "Monster's Ball" had been Thornton's only film that year, I think that he would have made the cut.

What a difference a day and a new gang of Oscar gurus make! Proof of how wide open the derby is can be tracked in the vast differences between our newest pundit predix (below) and the rundown we published yesterday (CLICK HERE). Six seers participated in both juries. Our new group: Patrick Day (LATimes.com), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network), Michael Musto (Village Voice), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com).

Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") proves to be a dramatic dark horse, zooming from far beyond the pack of best-actor rivals (no votes yesterday) to leading it, being tied with Sean Penn ("Milk") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") for reaping unanimous support now.

Another notable leap ahead: Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky") from 3 votes to 5. Darting onto the derby track after no support yesterday: Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") and Will Smith ("Seven Pounds").

Notable fallbacks: Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino") dropped from 5 votes to 2 and Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road") from 4 to 1. Falling out completely: Nicole Kidman ("Australia") and Benicio Del Toro ("Che").

On the eve of Halloween weekend, things looked eerie for Angelina Jolie's "Changeling" and her hope to get back in the Oscar derby for the first time since she won best supporting actress of 1999 for "Girl, Interrupted."

Last year Angelina Jolie got great reviews for "A Mighty Heart," but it bombed at the box office and she ended up getting snubbed by the academy despite receiving nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice and Indie Spirit Awards.

Traditionally, Halloween weekend is a lousy time to open a movie wide, especially if the holiday falls on a Saturday. "Changeling" had another problem. It's widely perceived as a chick flick that dating couples might skip in favor of more cross-gender crowd pleasers like "High School Musical 3," "Zach and Miri Make a Porno" and "Saw V."

But "Changeling" beat the odds and had the highest per-screen average of all pix in theaters this past weekend — $5,085 — and exceeded box-office projections, bringing in $9.4 million. One third of its audience was male (that's pretty good) and exit polls showed a high number of viewers ranking it "excellent" and saying that they'd definitely recommend it to others.

But now here's the really scary part of this Halloween Hollywood story. Some media are straining to portray "Changeling" box-office performance as a big disappointment.

Strangely, Hollywood Reporter Risky Biz blogger Steven Zeitchik writes, "Outside of the flop 'A Mighty Heart,' 'Changeling' is Jolie's lowest weekend total for a wide opening since the 'Original Sin'/'Life or Something Like It' days of the early '00s. True, it is a more much prestige-y film than, say, 'Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow.' And Halloween did take a toll. But not blowout numbers. Eastwood followed a similar trajectory — 'Changeling' trumped the late '90s/early '00s openings of tepidness like 'Blood Work' and 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil.' But the tally came in lower than the first wide weekends of his last three English-language directorial efforts — 'Flags of Our Fathers,' 'Million Dollar Baby' and 'Mystic River.' "

That's true, but those films all opened on weekends that were more box-office friendly, calendar wise, and they had strong appeal to both male and female moviegoers.

Zeitchik insists that film critics don't like "Changeling," which also isn't quite truth. It's received great reviews from the L.A. Times, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Time, Newsweek, Rolling Stone and Roger Ebert in the Chicago Sun-Times. Sure, some critics weren't enthusiastic, but it hasn't suffered many slams like Manola Dargis' nuclear strike in the New York Times. Most reviews are certainly respectful.

So . . . hmmm . . . what's behind this urge to portray this flick as a flop? Zeitchik isn't alone. Others are doing it too.

(ABC)

"Gran Torino" and "The Reader" have dropped out of the best picture running, and Kate Beckinsale ("Nothing But the Truth") and Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor") have vanished from the acting races, according to the latest batch of our pundits' predix. Piping in are Scott Bowles (USA Today), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Greg Ellwood (MSN Movies), Scott Feinberg (The Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Nathaniel Rogers (TheFilmExperience) and me.

Only two flicks get unanimous support for best picture bids: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Slumdog Millionaire." Not only has backing for "The Dark Knight" grown significantly in the last two weeks, but hugely: Five of our six prognosticators now foresee a top nom. Support for "Milk" has evaporated a bit (formerly, it got backing from a majority of seers), and there seems to be genuine doubt about "Doubt" (only one vote), but those flicks may rally in our next predix roundup when we tap additional gurus. Also noteworthy: Finally, Cate Blanchett ("Benjamin Button") is getting notice in the actress lineup. She has excellent odds to be nominated. She not only stars in the best picture front-runner, but she ages dramatically on screen (like many past winners, including last year's champ Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose"). I want to add Cate to my list too, but I just can't (for now) cruelly boot out one of my current fave five. Hey, I try to remain loyal to my gals ... as long as I can in fickle Hollywood, anyway.