• Five-time Oscar nominee Marc Shaiman is returning to the Oscarcast as musical director six years after conducting the orchestra for Billy Crystal's swan song as host. Shaiman earned three of his four Emmy nods for his work on the Oscars, sharing in the 1992 writing win for penning Crystal's opening medley to the 64th edition of the kudos. Shaiman has lost Oscar bids for both scores --  "The American President" (1995); "The First Wives Club" (1996) and "Patch Adams" (1998) -- and songs --  "A Wink and a Smile" from "Sleepless in Seattle" (1993) and "Blame Canada" from "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" (1999). For that last losing nod, Shaiman played escort to co-writers Trey Parker and Matt Stone dressed a la Jennifer Lopez and Gywneth Paltrow. The talented musical maestro will be reuniting with Oscarcast producer Adam Shankman who helmed the 2007 film version of Shaiman's Tony-winning 2003 musical "Hairspray." AMPAS

• Todd Martens judged the AMA performances and gave his top marks of A- to Rihanna -- "Ne-Yo told us that the R' in her 'Rated R' stands for either 'remarkable' or 'really, really sexy.' Not quite sure if it completely hit both of those notes, but it was definitely over too soon" -- and Whitney Houston -- "If her instrument isn't what it once was, it can still silence a room. Compared to Blige a few songs ago, Houston was perhaps a bit over the top, but she belted until she was nearly out of breath. It was a powerful moment." POP & HISS

• Rick Porter reports that Sunday night's AMA Awards got the biggest audience for the Alphabet net's annual musicfest in seven years. However, even this was not enough to beat the Peacock's NFL game: "NBC averaged 12.94 million viewers and an 8.0 rating/13 share in households on Sunday, edging CBS (12.69 million, 7.8/12) and ABC (12.14 million, 7.3/12) for the lead." ZAP2IT

• Pete Hammond continues to tout the Oscar potential of Sandra Bullock, star of "The Blind Side." Admits Pete, "I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating." Pete thinks, "It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars attention a la Julia Roberts in 'Erin Brockovich.'" However, as he notes, "Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for 'Brockovich' and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something 'Blind Side' won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Ryan Adams was wowed by Sunday's "60 Minutes" segment  on Oscar-winning helmer James Cameron ("Titanic") and his upcoming "Avatar." Said Ryan, "there’s an entirely different segment of the Academy elders who recognize the respect and prestige a '60 Minutes' profile can bestow. Having Morley Safer, the veteran CBS Yoda of culture and sophisticated taste give a movie his stamp of enthusiastic anticipation is a showcase more esteemed than money can buy. After some recent worries that 'Avatar' marketing was skewing for maximum youth appeal, many of us have been needing to see it validated as sincere grown-up sci-fi, hoping for a re-certification of maturity. Tonight on '60 Minutes' I think we got it."  AWARDS DAILY

• Following in the footsteps of James Cameron as this year's recipient of the Vanguard award from the Producers Guild of America is Joss Whedon. The award salutes achievements in new media and technology and the roster of previous recipients also includes George Lucas and John Lasseter. Whedon -- equally successful as a TV producer ("Buffy the Vamprie Slayer") and webcast wiz ("Dr. Horrible's Sing-a-Long Blog") -- was cited by kudos co-chairs David Friendly and Laurence Mark for having, "mastered the art of melding the newest technology with inspired storytelling, truly exemplifying the spirit of the Vanguard Award." PGA

• The Santa Barbara filmfest also has a Vanguard award and this year is spreading the wealth around naming a quartet of talent -- Vera Farmiga, Peter Sarsgaard, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz -- as winners. The kudo "was created in recognition of an actor who has forged his/her own path, taking artistic risks and making a significant and unique contribution to film. In previous years, this award was first bestowed on Ryan Gosling and last year to Kristin Scott Thomas." For fest director Roger Durling, “This group of supporting actors encompasses the best of the best; their roles have made us love them as well as hate them, sometimes all at the same time. I am so pleased to have all of them together, in one place to celebrate them and thank them for the cinematic treasures they have created." SBIFF

• For Sasha Stone, "There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be." Says Sasha, "'Up in the Air' is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can." Wonders Sasha, "Are there any surprises left to be played out?" AWARDS DAILY

• Lane Brown sees the Oscar hopes of "Nine" as on the rise: "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong. A big response at a SAG screening seemingly indicates that that hasn't happened." And among actors, Lane says, "Just three weeks after entering the race, "Crazy Heart" star Jeff Bridges is already the prohibitive favorite. And a great-looking new trailer subtly reminds us that the four-time Academy Award nominee has never won." NEW YORK

• Jeff Wells remains down on the best picture prospects of "Up." Says Jeff, "I sure didn't see 'Up' as a metaphor for anything in my life, I can tell you. It's just a high-strung animated story with a lot of gee-gosh stuff going on and some recognizable heart-and-spirit issues propelling the two main characters." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• And Anne Thompson was less than impressed with the American remake of "Brothers." As Anne writes, "David Benioff is a gifted writer ('The 25th Hour'). Jim Sheridan is a gifted director ('In America'). Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman are gifted actors. So what went wrong on the road to Relativity and Lionsgate’s American adaptation of Danish writer-director Susanne Bier’s extraordinary 2004 movie 'Brothers'?" THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

Photos from top: Trey Parker, Matt Stone and Marc Shaiman at the 1999 Academy Awards ceremony (Los Angeles Times); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.); "Up in the Air" poster (Paramount)

Two days ago the first installment of The Envelope's print edition was inserted into the L.A. Times. In each issue, the Gold Derby column breaks down the top races into lists for easy handicapping. Click here to see a gallery of the short "spotlight" articles that accompany the lists.

Below is how I size up the races for best picture and director. Bullets note the 10 flicks that I think will be nominated for best picture.

BEST PICTURE
FRONT-RUNNERS
• "Avatar"
"An Education"
• "The Hurt Locker"
• "Inglourious Basterds"
• "Invictus"
"Julie & Julia"
• "The Lovely Bones"
• "Nine"
• "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
• "The Road"
• "A Serious Man"
"Star Trek"
"Up"
• "Up in the Air"

POSSIBLE
"Bright Star"
"Brothers"
"District 9"
"The Hangover"
"It's Complicated"
"The Last Station"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"A Single Man"
"The Young Victoria"

After featuring two roundups of vastly differing Oscar predix (here and here), the race for best picture looks as befuddling as ever. So we gather even more views from more great Oscar seers: Erik Davis (Cinematical), Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Steve Pond (TheWrap) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). All of them predict nominations for "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Invictus," "Precious" and "Up in the Air." Four of the five pundits pick "Up" and "The Lovely Bones."

See how the predix of these five Oscarologists compare with views of 11 other top experts polled by Gold Derby here!

Photos: "The Lovely Bones," left (DreamWorks); "Up in the Air," right (Paramount)

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Hunger for "Avatar" continues to build, fed by the recent release of a new, long, all-revealing trailer and more photos. Check out this video interview with director James Cameron too. Sure, only two sci-fi flicks have ever been nominated for best picture at the Oscars ("Star Wars," "E.T."), but now there are twice as many nominees in that category than there used to be, it's a thin year in terms of rival competition and — best of all, "Avatar" fanboys — a fantasy film actually won in the past, let's recall. "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (2003) went undefeated to tie the all-time record (11 chunks of academy gold) also held by "Titanic," which, coincidentally, was directed by "Avatar's" James Cameron. Back in 1997, Cameron proved lots of Oscar prophets wrong when they predicted his budget-busting, disaster-plagued "Titanic" would sink. Now most Gold Derby readers believe his "Avatar" will defy the odds and be nominated for best picture. See poll results below. Notice that 11% of respondents (as of Friday afternoon) believe that "Avatar" will actually win best picture! They're crazy, of course, but I personally agree with the majority that it will be nominated.

"This is great!" says the blue dude with the spooky eyes in the new trailer for "Avatar," the first new big flick from "King of the Oscars" James Cameron ("Titanic"). That's the only dialogue spoken. Otherwise, the "Avatar" trailer is all special effects and dizzy action — good or bad.

Some fan boys cheer, others gripe. Naysayers claim "Avatar" looks more like a video game than a serious film. Others claim it's too derivative. Actually, now that they bring the matter up, it does seem like the blue dude stole his ears from Mr. Spock and those jaundiced peepers from the guy in "District 9."

However, "Avatar" retains many staunch defenders since it triggered mega-buzz at Comic-Con — like our poster who insists, "The trailer looks fantastic and amazing. Your eye sockets will receive a drubbing you won't soon forget."

What do you think?

Photos: 20th Century Fox

• The third season of "Mad Men" premiered Sunday night on AMC to boffo numbers. The show set a ratings record, drawing 2.8 million viewers. That was a 33% increase from the Season 2 opener for the Emmy-winning drama series. While other basic cable shows – like "The Closer" and "Burn Notice" – rate twice as high, "Mad Men" has the most upscale audience, with half the ages 25-to-54 viewers earning at least $100K. Forbes

• Oscar-winning helmer Robert Redford ("Ordinary People") has inked a deal to direct "The Conspirator." James Solomon ("The Bronx Is Burning") scripted the biopic about Mary Surratt, hung for her part in the escape of President Lincoln's assassin, John Wilkes Booth. James McAvoy is being sought to play the Union lawyer assigned to defend her. While Steven Spielberg has long been attached to a film about the 16th president, that project remains in limbo. The Hollywood Reporter

• The official site for "Avatar" crashed Monday under the weight of requests for tickets to Friday's Imax free-view of the film. However, as Jeff Wells reports, screenings outside the major markets did not fill up as quickly as the studio might have hoped, given the hype. Hollywood Elsewhere

• The British Academy of Film and Television Arts is feting the men behind Monty Python on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the sketch comedy troupe. The Oct. 15 BAFTA event in Gotham will include a screening of the IFC documentary "Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer's Cut)" as well as a Q&A with John Cleese, Terry Gilliam, Eric Idle, Terry Jones and Michael Palin. Variety

• The Venice film fest has renamed its competition for new reviewers after noted critic Tullio Kezich, who died Monday at age 80. Kezich had been a fixture at the festival since 1946 and was renowned in his native Italy for his writings on film as well as his biography of Federico Fellini. Variety