• Five-time Oscar nominee Marc Shaiman is returning to the Oscarcast as musical director six years after conducting the orchestra for Billy Crystal's swan song as host. Shaiman earned three of his four Emmy nods for his work on the Oscars, sharing in the 1992 writing win for penning Crystal's opening medley to the 64th edition of the kudos. Shaiman has lost Oscar bids for both scores --  "The American President" (1995); "The First Wives Club" (1996) and "Patch Adams" (1998) -- and songs --  "A Wink and a Smile" from "Sleepless in Seattle" (1993) and "Blame Canada" from "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" (1999). For that last losing nod, Shaiman played escort to co-writers Trey Parker and Matt Stone dressed a la Jennifer Lopez and Gywneth Paltrow. The talented musical maestro will be reuniting with Oscarcast producer Adam Shankman who helmed the 2007 film version of Shaiman's Tony-winning 2003 musical "Hairspray." AMPAS

• Todd Martens judged the AMA performances and gave his top marks of A- to Rihanna -- "Ne-Yo told us that the R' in her 'Rated R' stands for either 'remarkable' or 'really, really sexy.' Not quite sure if it completely hit both of those notes, but it was definitely over too soon" -- and Whitney Houston -- "If her instrument isn't what it once was, it can still silence a room. Compared to Blige a few songs ago, Houston was perhaps a bit over the top, but she belted until she was nearly out of breath. It was a powerful moment." POP & HISS

• Rick Porter reports that Sunday night's AMA Awards got the biggest audience for the Alphabet net's annual musicfest in seven years. However, even this was not enough to beat the Peacock's NFL game: "NBC averaged 12.94 million viewers and an 8.0 rating/13 share in households on Sunday, edging CBS (12.69 million, 7.8/12) and ABC (12.14 million, 7.3/12) for the lead." ZAP2IT

• Pete Hammond continues to tout the Oscar potential of Sandra Bullock, star of "The Blind Side." Admits Pete, "I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating." Pete thinks, "It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars attention a la Julia Roberts in 'Erin Brockovich.'" However, as he notes, "Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for 'Brockovich' and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something 'Blind Side' won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Ryan Adams was wowed by Sunday's "60 Minutes" segment  on Oscar-winning helmer James Cameron ("Titanic") and his upcoming "Avatar." Said Ryan, "there’s an entirely different segment of the Academy elders who recognize the respect and prestige a '60 Minutes' profile can bestow. Having Morley Safer, the veteran CBS Yoda of culture and sophisticated taste give a movie his stamp of enthusiastic anticipation is a showcase more esteemed than money can buy. After some recent worries that 'Avatar' marketing was skewing for maximum youth appeal, many of us have been needing to see it validated as sincere grown-up sci-fi, hoping for a re-certification of maturity. Tonight on '60 Minutes' I think we got it."  AWARDS DAILY

• Following in the footsteps of James Cameron as this year's recipient of the Vanguard award from the Producers Guild of America is Joss Whedon. The award salutes achievements in new media and technology and the roster of previous recipients also includes George Lucas and John Lasseter. Whedon -- equally successful as a TV producer ("Buffy the Vamprie Slayer") and webcast wiz ("Dr. Horrible's Sing-a-Long Blog") -- was cited by kudos co-chairs David Friendly and Laurence Mark for having, "mastered the art of melding the newest technology with inspired storytelling, truly exemplifying the spirit of the Vanguard Award." PGA

• The Santa Barbara filmfest also has a Vanguard award and this year is spreading the wealth around naming a quartet of talent -- Vera Farmiga, Peter Sarsgaard, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz -- as winners. The kudo "was created in recognition of an actor who has forged his/her own path, taking artistic risks and making a significant and unique contribution to film. In previous years, this award was first bestowed on Ryan Gosling and last year to Kristin Scott Thomas." For fest director Roger Durling, “This group of supporting actors encompasses the best of the best; their roles have made us love them as well as hate them, sometimes all at the same time. I am so pleased to have all of them together, in one place to celebrate them and thank them for the cinematic treasures they have created." SBIFF

• For Sasha Stone, "There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be." Says Sasha, "'Up in the Air' is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can." Wonders Sasha, "Are there any surprises left to be played out?" AWARDS DAILY

• Lane Brown sees the Oscar hopes of "Nine" as on the rise: "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong. A big response at a SAG screening seemingly indicates that that hasn't happened." And among actors, Lane says, "Just three weeks after entering the race, "Crazy Heart" star Jeff Bridges is already the prohibitive favorite. And a great-looking new trailer subtly reminds us that the four-time Academy Award nominee has never won." NEW YORK

• Jeff Wells remains down on the best picture prospects of "Up." Says Jeff, "I sure didn't see 'Up' as a metaphor for anything in my life, I can tell you. It's just a high-strung animated story with a lot of gee-gosh stuff going on and some recognizable heart-and-spirit issues propelling the two main characters." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• And Anne Thompson was less than impressed with the American remake of "Brothers." As Anne writes, "David Benioff is a gifted writer ('The 25th Hour'). Jim Sheridan is a gifted director ('In America'). Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman are gifted actors. So what went wrong on the road to Relativity and Lionsgate’s American adaptation of Danish writer-director Susanne Bier’s extraordinary 2004 movie 'Brothers'?" THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

Photos from top: Trey Parker, Matt Stone and Marc Shaiman at the 1999 Academy Awards ceremony (Los Angeles Times); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.); "Up in the Air" poster (Paramount)

With his win for "Milk," Sean Penn became the ninth man to have matching lead actor Oscar bookends, having earned his first in 2003 for "Mystic River." While Penn only had to wait five years to win that second Oscar, last year's champ Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") didn't gain entry to this exclusive club until 18 years after winning his first Oscar in 1989 for "My Left Foot."

The first seven actors to pull off this impressive feat were:

Spencer Tracy ("Captains Courageous" 1937; "Boys Town" 1938);

Fredric March ("Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" 1932; "The Best Years of Our Lives" 1946);

Gary Cooper ("Sergeant York" 1941; "High Noon" 1952);

Marlon Brando ("On the Waterfront" 1954; "The Godfather" 1972);

Dustin Hoffman ("Kramer v. Kramer" 1979; "Rain Man" 1988);

Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia" 1993; "Forrest Gump" 1994); and

Jack Nicholson ("One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" 1975; "As Good As It Gets" 1997).

Eleven women — Luise Rainer, Bette Davis, Olivia de Havilland, Vivien Leigh, Ingrid Bergman, Elizabeth Taylor, Glenda Jackson, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, Jodie Foster, and Hilary Swank — each have two lead actress Oscars. And then there is Katharine Hepburn who reigns supreme with a staggering four lead actress Oscars.

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Lead actor winner Sean Penn ("Milk") has completed production on "The Tree of Life." This new film from Oscar-nominated writer/director Terrence Malick ("The Thin Red Line") tells the tale of a boy growing up in the Midwest of the 1950s. As a framework to that, Penn plays the grown-up version of the character coming to grips with his past. Rival lead actor nominee Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") also stars in this drama that has no definite release date as of yet.

Today Variety is reporting that the politically minded Penn may play another real-life character — Ambassador Joseph Wilson, whose wife Valerie Plame (Naomi Watts) had her CIA cover blown by the Bush administration — in "Fair Game" from helmer Doug Liman ("Mr. and Mrs. Smith").

After back-to-back filming of grueling roles in both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road," lead actress winner Kate Winslet is taking a well-earned rest. However, there is no stopping supporting actress winner Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") who just wrapped production on the highly anticipated "Nine," which is due out at Thanksgiving.

This movie version of the 1982 Tony Award-winning musical (which was inspired by Federico Fellini's 1963 Oscar-winning "8 1/2") is loaded with Oscar winners: Daniel Day-Lewis as a wayward film director, Marion Cotillard as his faithful wife, Cruz as his mistress, Nicole Kidman as his protege, Judi Dench as his mentor and Sophia Loren as his mother. All are under the direction of Oscar nominee Rob Marshall ("Chicago").

And Cruz recently reunited with her good friend and mentor Pedro Almodovar to make "Los Abrazos Rotos" ("Loose Embraces"). Almodovar directed Cruz to a 2006 lead actress nomination for "Volver." For their fourth film together, they have made a modern-day film noir about a love square that will be released stateside in the fall.

RELATED POST:

Sean Penn is the ninth actor to win two lead Oscars

Oscar winners were predicted by guild awards

Live blogging the Oscars

Photo: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS

• Gold Derby's gutsy, 100% accurate Oscars predictions

• Gold Derby odds on the top Oscars races

• Experts predict who'll win the Oscars

• Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in a real heavyweight bout

• Can Meryl Streep beat Kate Winslet at the Oscars?

• Rookie pundit needs a new Oscars crystal ball

OSCARS TELECAST

• Will Rob Pattinson sing with Mary Poppins at the Oscars?

• Will Miley Cyrus, Beyonce, Zac Efron and Rob Pattinson wow Oscars' viewers?

• 'Twilight' star Robert Pattinson will be an Oscars presenter

• Some Oscars TV ads still for sale — only $1.4 million a pop!

• Oscars are the Emmys' biggest winner

OSCARS HOST: HUGH JACKMAN

• Sneak Peek: See Hugh Jackman warming up his Oscar act

• Can Hugh Jackman continue the Oscars' love affair with Emmys?

OSCAR NOMINEES

• Heath Ledger's ultimate joke on the Oscars?

• Heath Ledger's family plans to take his Oscar, which should go to Matilda if he wins!

• Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie could be latest couple cursed at the Oscars

• Will Brad Pitt lose best actor due to Oscars' Slap the Stud Syndrome?

• Will the Babe Factor help Kate Winslet in a close Oscars contest with Meryl Streep?

• Watch out, Mickey Rourke: Indie Spirit is Oscar's consolation prize

• Penelope Cruz: 'Whatever happens, I will probably have a few beers and I don't drink!'

• No 'Doubt' Viola Davis could win at Oscars for portraying a long-suffering wife

OSCAR RACES

• 'Slumdog Millionaire' isn't doomed at the Oscars just because its actors got snubbed

• The Oscars' best picture usually = big picture

• Could 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button' suffer the worst shut-out in Oscars history?

• No, there is no bias against foreigners at the Oscars

• Here's why there will be an Oscars upset for best foreign film

OSCAR FLASHBACK

• Did 'Ben-Hur' deserve to win best picture at the Oscars?

OSCAR QUIZZES

• Quiz: Which actor had the most Oscar bids in a row?

• Quiz: Which Bette Davis flick suffered the worst Oscars' shut-out?

• Quiz: Who turned down Jodie Foster's Oscar-winning role in 'Lambs'?

• Quiz: Who won an Oscar on her birthday?

• Quiz: Which Oscar-winning role was not gay?

• Quiz: How much does an Oscar cost to make?

• Quiz: Which movies won for writing, directing and acting, but failed to win best picture?

Illustration by Ty Wilson

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For both Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie, the only speech they really need to rehearse for Sunday's Oscars is what to say when they run into his ex-wife Jennifer Aniston. After all, both Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are ranked by Gold Derby fourth in their respective lead races for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Changeling."

And the track record of couples both nominated for Oscars in the same year is not great. Of the 11 couples profiled below, only one — Frances McDormand and Joel Coen — both won on the same night. In four other derby years, the woman won while, in one instance, it was the man. And for the five others — including the most recent pairing of Heath Ledger and Michelle Williams in 2005's "Brokeback Mountain" — both of them lost.

In 2005 Ledger and Williams met while making "Brokeback Mountain." He lost the lead actor race to Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") while she lost the supporting actress Oscar to Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener").

In 1996, Joel Coen directed his wife Frances McDormand for the fifth time in "Fargo." She won her only lead actress bid (she has lost three supporting races) and he earned his first directing nod. While he lost that race to Anthony Minghella who helmed best picture champ "The English Patient" he shared the original screenplay Oscar with his brother Ethan Coen.

In 1995 Tim Robbins directed his partner Susan Sarandon to the lead actress Oscar in "Dead Man Walking." While Sarandon won on her fifth and, to date, final bid, Robbins lost his only helming nod to another actor turned director Mel Gibson who won for making best picture champ "Braveheart." Robbins would go on to win the supporting actor Oscar in 2003 for "Mystic River" which was directed by the ultimate crossover Clint Eastwood.

In 1968 Paul Newman directed his first film "Rachel, Rachel" with wife Joanne Woodward in the title role. Woodward lost the second of her four lead actress bids — she won with her first in 1957 for "The Three Faces of Eve" — to both Katharine Hepburn ("The Lion in Winter") and Barbra Streisand ("Funny Girl"). Newman was nominated for producing this best picture contender which lost to "Oliver!" He would go on to win on the seventh of his eight lead actor nods in 1986 for "The Color of Money" and earned a single supporting nod as well. Newman also received an honorary Oscar in 1985 and the Hersholt humanitarian Oscar in 1993.

In 1967 Katharine Hepburn won the the second of her record four lead actress awards for "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" which was her final film with off-screen love Spencer Tracy. She always thought of this award as a tribute to Tracy, who died just days after filming finished on their ninth on-screen collaboration. Tracy lost his ninth and final lead actor race. He had won back-to-back Oscars in 1937 and 1938 for "Captains Courageous" and "Boys Town" respectively. "Dinner" was the only film they made together in which they were both nominated but Hepburn picked up the third of her 12 lead actress nods for their first collaboration "Woman of the Year" in 1942.

In 1966 husband and wife Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor contended in the lead races for "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" Taylor won the second of her two lead actress Oscars — the first was in 1960 for "Butterfield 8" — on her fifth and final nod. Burton lost the fifth of his seven nods to Paul Scofield ("A Man for All Seasons"). Burton shared the title of Oscar's biggest loser with his drinking buddy Peter O'Toole until O'Toole worsted him with his loss for "Venus" two years ago.

In 1963, Rex Harrison lost the first of his two lead actor bids for "Cleopatra" to Sidney Poitier ("Lilies of the Field") while wife Rachel Roberts lost her only best actress nod to Patricia Neal ("Hud"). Harrison would win the following year for reprising his stage role of Henry Higgins in best picture champ "My Fair Lady."

In 1957 husband and wife Charles Laughton and Elsa Lanchester were nominated for "Witness for the Prosecution." Laughton — already a lead actor champ for 1933's "The Private Life of Henry VIII" — lost the third of his three lead actor bids to Alec Guinness ("The Bridge on the River Kwai"). Lanchester lost the second of her two supporting actress noms to Miyoshi Umeki ("Sayonara").

In 1953 Ava Gardner successfully petitioned Columbia studio head Harry Cohn to cast her husband Frank Sinatra in "From Here to Eternity." While he won the supporting actor award she lost her only lead actress bid for "Mogambo" to Audrey Hepburn ("Roman Holiday"). Sinatra went on to earn one lead nod and was awarded the Hersholt humanitarian Oscar in 1970.

At this year's Oscars there are only three foreign-born folk among the 20 acting nominees: lead actress contender Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and supporting players Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") and Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona"). However, that does not mean the Oscars are guilty of any home-grown bias. After all, those three are the front-runners in their races. And last year all four acting winners came from foreign shores.

While Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton") were just the latest two of the 36 English actors to win Oscars, Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") made Oscars history by giving the first French-language performance to be so honored while Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") was the first Spanish performer to win an Oscar.

That marked the second time in Oscars history that all four acting champs hailed from outside the United States. The first was back in 1964 when the winners were three Brits — Rex Harrison ("My Fair Lady"), Julie Andrews ("Mary Poppins"), and Peter Ustinov ("Topkapi") — and Russian born Lila Kedrova ("Zorba the Greek").

The Oscars rolled out the the welcome mat at the very first ceremony in 1929 when Swiss-born Emil Jannings won lead actor for his performances in "The Last Command" and "The Way of All Flesh." And three of the first four lead actresses came from Canada — Mary Pickford ("Coquette"), Norma Shearer ("The Divorcee"), and Marie Dressler ("Min and Bill").

One of our most prolific forum posters, the aptly named Academy Awards Guru, has compiled a list of the nationalities of all 265 Oscar winners for acting. During the course of 80 ceremonies, they have won 306 Oscars (there has been one tie in each of lead actor and lead actress). Of these, 77 winners came from outside the USA to take home 87 Oscars. While 22 other countries have produced Oscar winners, it is not surprising that England leads with 36 of her citizens winning 42 Oscars.

Over the last 80 years at the Oscars, lead actor has gone to a non-American 24 times and lead actress 25 times while in the 72-year history of the supporting awards, non-Americans won supporting actor 20 times and supporting actress 18 times.

In the following list, the Oscar-winning actors are listed under the country with which they are most associated with their birthplace given when it differs. In addition, those actors who were born elsewhere but raised primarily in the USA are not included, such as Elizabeth Taylor born in England, Claudette Colbert in France, sisters Joan Fontaine and Olivia DeHavilland in Japan, Anthony Quinn in Mexico, and Paul Muni in the Ukraine.

I invited The Envelope's forum moderators to give us their early Oscars predictions: Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Matthew "Boidiva2" Cormier, Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and Rob Licuria.

"There's no way Daniel Day-Lewis won't win," George Clooney told The Envelope during a video interview at the Oscar nominee luncheon and recently insisted to Time. That's what all the pundits (save one cliff-jumper) believe, but I remind you that he also predicted he'd lose in the supporting slot when up against Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man"). And all of the pundits have been wrong before, like they were the last time they insisted that Daniel Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York") would win for a different sinister role after he swept the precursor awards.

However, jawdroppers happen all the time at the Oscars. (Remember when the wrong Richard — Dreyfuss — beat Burton?) If they didn't, we bloggers would be out of biz and the Oscars no fun to watch.

The reason that the shockeroos occur is because Hollywooders are a bull-headed, contrary-minded lot and often they don't tip their cards. They also don't like to admit that they're going against the pack — everybody's got to be a team player, after all — but, alone at home where no one is looking and with sly smirks on their faces, they fool Oscarwatchers now and then by checking off their ballots for Marcia Gay Harden or Juliette Binoche. 

I think there's a fascinating hint of the Clooney upset to be spotted in the videos of two alleged academy voters, those reelgeezers who blabbed their voting preferences on YouTube.

It's clear they don't think much of Day-Lewis' ham-boning in "There Will Be Blood" — bashing it with scowls and derision — but, strangely, they don't tell us who they're going to vote for instead, as they do in most other categories. They really don't need to. Throughout the videos, they swoon, gush and giggle with delight over every mention of "Michael Clayton" (which, mind you, has seven head-scratching nominations, including best picture) and George Clooney.

Just like the rest of Hollywood. He's the ultra-cool kid in a Clooney-crazy town, the most beloved swashbuckler since Jack Nicholson, who holds the record for most wins by a male actor (three). Clooney's never lost an acting award and has never before been nominated in lead. We don't know his secret voting strength across the whole academy electorate once this matinee star has managed to snag a bid from the snobs in the acting branch.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

The 15th and final incarnation of the Oscar buzzmeter promises some surprising results on Sunday night. What began at the end of last October with 26 pundits predicting the top eight races has grown to 32 panelists, many of whom offer their thoughts on all 24 Oscar categories. Some skip a few categories here and there (the hardest ones, of course — cowards!).

To see a category-per-category a roundup report, READ THIS.

To view the Buzzmeter, CLICK HERE, then click on various links marked "Individual Panelist's Rankings" in different boxes to see a grid breaking down predix per pundit. Not every link leads to every category, so you have to move around a bit and, beware: there's a temporary tech glitch if you view sections on a PC using Internet Explorer. We'll solve that soon, but, meantime, if the pundits' names are obscured from view, try switching to using a different browser like Firefox or Netscape.

As is often the case, the fall front-runner stumbled coming out of the gate. In our first buzzmeter, 14 of the pundits picked "Atonement" to win best picture while only 3 had "No Country for Old Men" in first place. Now, all but 3 of us see "No Country" taking the top prize.

And while the Coen boys began the derby tied with "Atonement" helmer Joe Wright with eight votes apiece, the directors of "No Country" now have the backing of everyone on the panel with the exception of Sam Rubin, who thinks that "Juno's" Jason Reitman can pull off a shockeroo.

The category with the most conflicting views is supporting actress race, of course — that hotbed of upsets, historically. Cate Blanchett ("I'm Not There") started out the race as the clear front-runner with 22 of us predicting she would win her second Oscar. Ruby Dee did not even register for her small role in "American Gangster." But her memorable few moments in the movie and her recent SAG win now put her in the lead among our pundits: 12 out of 31 voting. Blanchett comes in second place with 8, Tilda Swinton gets 6 and Amy Ryan 5.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Below: forecasts in the film categories. To see TV predix — CLICK HERE! Also check out the predix of our dueling forum moderators, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — CLICK HERE! Their TV predix: HERE.

BEST DIRECTOR - DGA
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
X - Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sean Penn, "Into the Wild"
Julian Schnabel, "Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

Sometimes DGA members swoon too much over celebs, as I note HERE, which means Sean Penn could pull off an upset. And what Anderson pulls off in "Blood" may strike them as a bigger, grander achievement cinematically, but everybody knows: This is the Coen Brothers' Year.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD

BEST ACTOR - FILM
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
X - Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into The Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

George Clooney holds a SAG I.O.U. — they snubbed him the year he won for "Syriana," preferring shlubby Paul Giamatti, who they probably viewed as more of an actors' actor. That proves that voters don't fall for the matinee dash of celebrityhood, so Clooney is in big trouble again with his guild peers this year. He's up against The Ultimate Actor's Actor — a guy who famously goes to ridiculous lengths to immerse himself in his roles. Daniel Day-Lewis won several years ago for "Gangs of New York," (Adrien Brody beat him at the Oscars), so he should have an easy time of it again.

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