• Five-time Oscar nominee Marc Shaiman is returning to the Oscarcast as musical director six years after conducting the orchestra for Billy Crystal's swan song as host. Shaiman earned three of his four Emmy nods for his work on the Oscars, sharing in the 1992 writing win for penning Crystal's opening medley to the 64th edition of the kudos. Shaiman has lost Oscar bids for both scores --  "The American President" (1995); "The First Wives Club" (1996) and "Patch Adams" (1998) -- and songs --  "A Wink and a Smile" from "Sleepless in Seattle" (1993) and "Blame Canada" from "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" (1999). For that last losing nod, Shaiman played escort to co-writers Trey Parker and Matt Stone dressed a la Jennifer Lopez and Gywneth Paltrow. The talented musical maestro will be reuniting with Oscarcast producer Adam Shankman who helmed the 2007 film version of Shaiman's Tony-winning 2003 musical "Hairspray." AMPAS

• Todd Martens judged the AMA performances and gave his top marks of A- to Rihanna -- "Ne-Yo told us that the R' in her 'Rated R' stands for either 'remarkable' or 'really, really sexy.' Not quite sure if it completely hit both of those notes, but it was definitely over too soon" -- and Whitney Houston -- "If her instrument isn't what it once was, it can still silence a room. Compared to Blige a few songs ago, Houston was perhaps a bit over the top, but she belted until she was nearly out of breath. It was a powerful moment." POP & HISS

• Rick Porter reports that Sunday night's AMA Awards got the biggest audience for the Alphabet net's annual musicfest in seven years. However, even this was not enough to beat the Peacock's NFL game: "NBC averaged 12.94 million viewers and an 8.0 rating/13 share in households on Sunday, edging CBS (12.69 million, 7.8/12) and ABC (12.14 million, 7.3/12) for the lead." ZAP2IT

• Pete Hammond continues to tout the Oscar potential of Sandra Bullock, star of "The Blind Side." Admits Pete, "I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating." Pete thinks, "It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars attention a la Julia Roberts in 'Erin Brockovich.'" However, as he notes, "Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for 'Brockovich' and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something 'Blind Side' won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Ryan Adams was wowed by Sunday's "60 Minutes" segment  on Oscar-winning helmer James Cameron ("Titanic") and his upcoming "Avatar." Said Ryan, "there’s an entirely different segment of the Academy elders who recognize the respect and prestige a '60 Minutes' profile can bestow. Having Morley Safer, the veteran CBS Yoda of culture and sophisticated taste give a movie his stamp of enthusiastic anticipation is a showcase more esteemed than money can buy. After some recent worries that 'Avatar' marketing was skewing for maximum youth appeal, many of us have been needing to see it validated as sincere grown-up sci-fi, hoping for a re-certification of maturity. Tonight on '60 Minutes' I think we got it."  AWARDS DAILY

• Following in the footsteps of James Cameron as this year's recipient of the Vanguard award from the Producers Guild of America is Joss Whedon. The award salutes achievements in new media and technology and the roster of previous recipients also includes George Lucas and John Lasseter. Whedon -- equally successful as a TV producer ("Buffy the Vamprie Slayer") and webcast wiz ("Dr. Horrible's Sing-a-Long Blog") -- was cited by kudos co-chairs David Friendly and Laurence Mark for having, "mastered the art of melding the newest technology with inspired storytelling, truly exemplifying the spirit of the Vanguard Award." PGA

• The Santa Barbara filmfest also has a Vanguard award and this year is spreading the wealth around naming a quartet of talent -- Vera Farmiga, Peter Sarsgaard, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz -- as winners. The kudo "was created in recognition of an actor who has forged his/her own path, taking artistic risks and making a significant and unique contribution to film. In previous years, this award was first bestowed on Ryan Gosling and last year to Kristin Scott Thomas." For fest director Roger Durling, “This group of supporting actors encompasses the best of the best; their roles have made us love them as well as hate them, sometimes all at the same time. I am so pleased to have all of them together, in one place to celebrate them and thank them for the cinematic treasures they have created." SBIFF

• For Sasha Stone, "There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be." Says Sasha, "'Up in the Air' is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can." Wonders Sasha, "Are there any surprises left to be played out?" AWARDS DAILY

• Lane Brown sees the Oscar hopes of "Nine" as on the rise: "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong. A big response at a SAG screening seemingly indicates that that hasn't happened." And among actors, Lane says, "Just three weeks after entering the race, "Crazy Heart" star Jeff Bridges is already the prohibitive favorite. And a great-looking new trailer subtly reminds us that the four-time Academy Award nominee has never won." NEW YORK

• Jeff Wells remains down on the best picture prospects of "Up." Says Jeff, "I sure didn't see 'Up' as a metaphor for anything in my life, I can tell you. It's just a high-strung animated story with a lot of gee-gosh stuff going on and some recognizable heart-and-spirit issues propelling the two main characters." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• And Anne Thompson was less than impressed with the American remake of "Brothers." As Anne writes, "David Benioff is a gifted writer ('The 25th Hour'). Jim Sheridan is a gifted director ('In America'). Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman are gifted actors. So what went wrong on the road to Relativity and Lionsgate’s American adaptation of Danish writer-director Susanne Bier’s extraordinary 2004 movie 'Brothers'?" THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

Photos from top: Trey Parker, Matt Stone and Marc Shaiman at the 1999 Academy Awards ceremony (Los Angeles Times); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.); "Up in the Air" poster (Paramount)

Changing the Oscars' voting method in just one category — best picture — is odd. Suddenly, academy leaders believe that using the preferential voting method that's employed now to determine Oscars nominees is the best way to pick a winner in the top race (which will have 10 nominees), but not the others (which will still have five). Thus voters will rank their faves when deciding the best-picture race, but merely check off their number-one choice of a winner in all other categories. Huh? 

When Steve Pond (The Wrap) broke the news of the new voting system yesterday, he quoted academy executive director Bruce Davis saying, "There are certain mathematical dangers with more nominees. You could really get a fragmentation to the point where a picture with 18% or 20% of the vote could win, and the board didn't want that to happen."

OK, but why not use the preferential ballot in all Academy Awards races? No doubt the answer to that is: butt out — the Oscars have used the current voting method to determine winners in the vast majority of categories since the 1930s. Can't mess with tradition. When there were more than five nominees for best picture between 1934 and 1943, the preferential ballot was used to choose winners, so that's what must be done again. Period. Oscar tradition and history are sacred.

But that means future voting will be schizophrenic and illogical. To see what that may mean, let's examine what occurred from 1934 to 1943 when there were more than five nominees — and in 1944 and 1945 when there were just five, but preferential voting still decided champs.

In the 63 Oscar derbies since 1945, the films that won best picture also won best director — using the same voting method — 50 times (80% overlap). During the 12 derbies (1934-1945) when schizophrenic voting was used, the two categories agreed eight times (67%).

One of the most notable disagreements between those races back in the old days led to one of Oscar's greatest tragedies: the snubbing of one of Hollywood's greatest directors, Alfred Hitchcock, who ended up going to his grave Oscarless despite the fact that his film, "Rebecca," won best picture of 1940. Hitchcock ended losing the helmer's honor to John Ford ("The Grapes of Wrath").

Doesn't this snub suggest that the same kind of outrage could occur in the future? Doesn't logic suggest that the year's best picture is also its best directed?

Lead actor winner Sean Penn ("Milk") has completed production on "The Tree of Life." This new film from Oscar-nominated writer/director Terrence Malick ("The Thin Red Line") tells the tale of a boy growing up in the Midwest of the 1950s. As a framework to that, Penn plays the grown-up version of the character coming to grips with his past. Rival lead actor nominee Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") also stars in this drama that has no definite release date as of yet.

Today Variety is reporting that the politically minded Penn may play another real-life character — Ambassador Joseph Wilson, whose wife Valerie Plame (Naomi Watts) had her CIA cover blown by the Bush administration — in "Fair Game" from helmer Doug Liman ("Mr. and Mrs. Smith").

After back-to-back filming of grueling roles in both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road," lead actress winner Kate Winslet is taking a well-earned rest. However, there is no stopping supporting actress winner Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") who just wrapped production on the highly anticipated "Nine," which is due out at Thanksgiving.

This movie version of the 1982 Tony Award-winning musical (which was inspired by Federico Fellini's 1963 Oscar-winning "8 1/2") is loaded with Oscar winners: Daniel Day-Lewis as a wayward film director, Marion Cotillard as his faithful wife, Cruz as his mistress, Nicole Kidman as his protege, Judi Dench as his mentor and Sophia Loren as his mother. All are under the direction of Oscar nominee Rob Marshall ("Chicago").

And Cruz recently reunited with her good friend and mentor Pedro Almodovar to make "Los Abrazos Rotos" ("Loose Embraces"). Almodovar directed Cruz to a 2006 lead actress nomination for "Volver." For their fourth film together, they have made a modern-day film noir about a love square that will be released stateside in the fall.

RELATED POST:

Sean Penn is the ninth actor to win two lead Oscars

Oscar winners were predicted by guild awards

Live blogging the Oscars

Photo: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS

• Gold Derby's gutsy, 100% accurate Oscars predictions

• Gold Derby odds on the top Oscars races

• Experts predict who'll win the Oscars

• Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in a real heavyweight bout

• Can Meryl Streep beat Kate Winslet at the Oscars?

• Rookie pundit needs a new Oscars crystal ball

OSCARS TELECAST

• Will Rob Pattinson sing with Mary Poppins at the Oscars?

• Will Miley Cyrus, Beyonce, Zac Efron and Rob Pattinson wow Oscars' viewers?

• 'Twilight' star Robert Pattinson will be an Oscars presenter

• Some Oscars TV ads still for sale — only $1.4 million a pop!

• Oscars are the Emmys' biggest winner

OSCARS HOST: HUGH JACKMAN

• Sneak Peek: See Hugh Jackman warming up his Oscar act

• Can Hugh Jackman continue the Oscars' love affair with Emmys?

OSCAR NOMINEES

• Heath Ledger's ultimate joke on the Oscars?

• Heath Ledger's family plans to take his Oscar, which should go to Matilda if he wins!

• Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie could be latest couple cursed at the Oscars

• Will Brad Pitt lose best actor due to Oscars' Slap the Stud Syndrome?

• Will the Babe Factor help Kate Winslet in a close Oscars contest with Meryl Streep?

• Watch out, Mickey Rourke: Indie Spirit is Oscar's consolation prize

• Penelope Cruz: 'Whatever happens, I will probably have a few beers and I don't drink!'

• No 'Doubt' Viola Davis could win at Oscars for portraying a long-suffering wife

OSCAR RACES

• 'Slumdog Millionaire' isn't doomed at the Oscars just because its actors got snubbed

• The Oscars' best picture usually = big picture

• Could 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button' suffer the worst shut-out in Oscars history?

• No, there is no bias against foreigners at the Oscars

• Here's why there will be an Oscars upset for best foreign film

OSCAR FLASHBACK

• Did 'Ben-Hur' deserve to win best picture at the Oscars?

OSCAR QUIZZES

• Quiz: Which actor had the most Oscar bids in a row?

• Quiz: Which Bette Davis flick suffered the worst Oscars' shut-out?

• Quiz: Who turned down Jodie Foster's Oscar-winning role in 'Lambs'?

• Quiz: Who won an Oscar on her birthday?

• Quiz: Which Oscar-winning role was not gay?

• Quiz: How much does an Oscar cost to make?

• Quiz: Which movies won for writing, directing and acting, but failed to win best picture?

Illustration by Ty Wilson

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Below: forecasts in the film categories. To see TV predix — CLICK HERE! Also check out the predix of our dueling forum moderators, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — CLICK HERE! Their TV predix: HERE.

BEST DIRECTOR - DGA
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
X - Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sean Penn, "Into the Wild"
Julian Schnabel, "Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

Sometimes DGA members swoon too much over celebs, as I note HERE, which means Sean Penn could pull off an upset. And what Anderson pulls off in "Blood" may strike them as a bigger, grander achievement cinematically, but everybody knows: This is the Coen Brothers' Year.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD

BEST ACTOR - FILM
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
X - Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into The Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

George Clooney holds a SAG I.O.U. — they snubbed him the year he won for "Syriana," preferring shlubby Paul Giamatti, who they probably viewed as more of an actors' actor. That proves that voters don't fall for the matinee dash of celebrityhood, so Clooney is in big trouble again with his guild peers this year. He's up against The Ultimate Actor's Actor — a guy who famously goes to ridiculous lengths to immerse himself in his roles. Daniel Day-Lewis won several years ago for "Gangs of New York," (Adrien Brody beat him at the Oscars), so he should have an easy time of it again.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Yesterday "There Will Be Blood" was voted best picture by the National Society of Film Critics — after previously winning the same accolade from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association a month ago. That's great Oscar news, eh? Well, maybe.

Over the past 20 years, 6 of the 7 of the films that won both awards ended up being nominated for best picture by the academy. The one that wasn't: "American Splendor." Two overlapping choices won the Oscar for best picture ("Schindler's List," "Unforgiven"). So the odds may look good that "Blood" will be nominated, but beware: all of those overlaps that agreed with the Oscar High Five occurred prior to 2003 when the new Oscar calendar debuted. Arguably, the game is different now for late releases like "Blood," but more on that later. For now, let's look at The Envelope's own Buzzmeter tea leaves. At this exact moment, it is Sunday night, Jan. 6. Current predix were logged before NSFC results were known. Check out those predix: CLICK HERE, then click on the link for "Individual Panelist's Rankings" — make sure the drop-down menu says "Week of Dec. 30." New predix will be posted tomorrow.

Currently, only 8 of our 25 pundits put "Blood" in the top five of likely nominees: Jack Mathews (New York Daily News), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Dave Frear (Time Out NY), Clay Smith ("E.T."/"The Insider") and Jeff Goldsmith (Creative Screenwriting Magazine) and me. Mathews not only believes it will be nominated, but he asserts, "You can count on it!"

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

At this early point in the derby, the dash for best picture has already narrowed considerably to a pack of 10 lead ponies.

Out front: "Babel," "Bobby," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls" "Flags of Our Fathers," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Pursuit of Happyness," "The Queen," "United 93" and "Volver."

Others in the running, but yards behind (more on that later): "Blood Diamond," "Borat," "The Painted Veil," "The Good German," "The Good Shepherd," "Last King of Scotland," "Little Children" and "World Trade Center."

My biggest track bet stays on "Dreamgirls" for now because it's a Broadway-proven, heart-squeezing, feet-tapping dramatization of a real showbiz story that was important to most academy voters during their youth, however much it winks its denial that it's not really about the Supremes.

Best picture winners usually must have a strong corresponding contender for best director — that's Bill Condon, who is emerging, finally, center stage among Hollywood helmers deserving a bow.

It helps that his arrival is relatively new (although I think he was cheated out of due recognition for "Kinsey") because voters like to crown big talent on the rise (Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings," Sam Mendes, "American Beauty") when they're not trying to make up for past snubbings of veterans (Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind," Steven Spielberg, "Schindler's List").

It also has what most best picture winners have: a cast of A-Listers (Beyonce, Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson).

In addition, it'll certainly nab gads of noms across many categories — that's key because the movie with the most nominations usually wins.

Beware: The best-pic victory of another musical, "Chicago" (which Condon adapted from the stage as screenwriter, but didn't direct), may be a fluke.

Other Broadway hits recently flopped when transferred to the Hollywood screen ("The Producers," "Phantom of the Opera") and no film with a black cast has yet won over the vastly white academy electorate.

Furthermore, it will need to prove itself at the box office, which is chancy. Musicals seem so old-fashioned today and so does its story line, although, happily, its telling is updated with hip new stars.

Even if it does well domestically, a black musical faces tough odds at theaters overseas, which could derail it at the Golden Globes where it's up against steep competish in that musical/comedy race opposite "Little Miss Sunshine", "Stranger Than Fiction" and "Borat."

In fact, two members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have told me — with sour, disapproving faces — that they don't think it'll sell overseas, period, which may affect how those foreign journalists vote.

Last, one of its strongest plusses and minuses is that it's about showbiz. Sometimes that helps ("Shakespeare in Love"), but usually, and quite strangely, that topic is a curse at showbiz's top awards — from the defeats of best-pic nominees "Sunset Boulevard" to "Nashville," "All That Jazz," "Coal Miner's Daughter," "The Aviator" and "The Turning Point" (Oscar's biggest loser, tied with "The Color Purple") and many others.

That means we must take rivals seriously like "The Queen," which not only has a hotshot overdue director (Stephen Frears), but features the best actress frontrunner (Helen Mirren) in a real-life role.

Often voters like to pair their best-pic choice with a lead-acting winner ("Million Dollar Baby," "Gladiator," "American Beauty," "Shakespeare in Love," "Rain Man"). Oh, yeah, and it's British (too many examples to cite!). Its reigning magnificently at the box office right now, although in shrewdly restricted release (only 152 theaters).

"Babel" has a hot helmer (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and the A-List cast in a story relevant to today's headlines (hysteria over terrorism).

"Volver" has the strong director advantage, too (Pedro Almodovar) and the possible best actress winner (Penelope Cruz has The Babe Factor in a race crowded with older gals), although being in Spanish probably dooms its chance to win.

"The Departed" has surprising b.o., A-List celebs galore and the woefully overdue-director element (Martin Scorsese), but it's an actioner without an important message.

If "Flags of Our Fathers" gets into the top five, it will be given a major push soon after noms come out by the release of its Japanese mirror, "Letters from Iwo Jima," but Clint is so been-there-done-that right now and "Flags" is drooping commercially.

"Little Miss Sunshine" may seem too lightweight.

"United 93" came out too early and doesn't have a shot in the acting races, which is often key, but it does have behind it one of the most aggressive Oscar campaigners in the biz, a graduate with honors from The Harvey School.

Speaking of Harvey Weinstein, "Bobby" not only has major stars in a story of historic importance, but, yeowsa, it has that voracious Oscar conqueror, hungry for a comeback, mapping its academy onslaught.

Drawbacks: Its characters are mostly fictitious, Hollywood is a bit skeptical of its heartthrob director/writer (Emilio Estevez) and film critics aren't cheering it on. However, some audiences sure seem to be.

Pete Hammond reports at HollywoodWiretap.com, "At the AFI Film Fest's "Bobby" opening, applause was so enthusiastic it was hard to hear the rousing, just-recorded, end-credits song co-written by Bryan Adams and duetted by Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige."

Advance buzz over "The Pursuit of Happyness" grows louder every day and it features a guaranteed best-actor nominee who could win (Will Smith), but it may be too sappy and its director is an unknown neophyte.

But sappy is good at the Oscars, as we know. Movies that move voters the most emotionally usually win ("Million Dollar Baby"). So far that looks like "The Pursuit of Happyness," even "Bobby" to some extent and certainly "Dreamgirls."

If the contest comes down to "Dreamgirls" and "Pursuit of Happyness", it would be a vindication for the academy, which, prior to the recent same-year wins by Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), had been accused of being stingy to African-American films.

For now "Dreamgirls" has the most over-all advantages at this point, but it's still unseen and, frankly, if it's true that Bill Condon has played down the Effie/Florence Ballard role (Jennifer Hudson) as rumor has it, that could be catastrophic.

Even though the "Dreamgirls" spotlight is mostly on Deena Jones/Diana Ross (Beyonce) in both stage and screen versions, Effie stole the Broadway show so much so that its performer (Jennifer Holliday) stole the Tony Award for best actress away from the show's lead star (Sheryl Lee Ralph).

If Deena eclipses Effie too much in the movie, "Dreamgirls" loses its soul.

Of the movies in that second tier, "Blood Diamond" has doubters because director Ed Zwick failed to deliver on "The Last Samurai" and because it looks so commercial and because of rumors that Leo DiCaprio departs too often from his South African accent into South Bronx and Confederate South.

(If true, Warner Bros. may need to boost Leo up pronto to the lead race from supporting for "The Departed.")

"The Good Shepherd" suffers from skepticism about Robert DeNiro as a director and the fact that it's not a heart-tugging tale, but early buzz about the script is aces and the topic is a politically urgent one.

"The Good German" looks good, but a bit too commercial/suspense-driven and, strangely, George Clooney is making everybody worry about what he means with his oft-heard remark, "This is Cate's movie!" (Cate Blanchett, of course. Is that a compliment? Or dismissal?)

Like "United 93," "World Trade Center" came out early, too, and there's no huge groundswell behind it at this point.

"Borat" may become a monster hit, but it's too silly.

"Last King of Scotland" and "Little Children" aren't exploding at the box office and it doesn't look likely that "The Painted Veil," however good it is, will either, being a slow-paced period piece.

So, for now, "Dreamgirls" it is.

Photos: Two African-American movies are stand-outs in the best picture race. "Dreamgirls" is the early frontrunner because it's loaded with heart, superstars, a popular emerging director and it's likely to reap wide support across many academy branches. And it was a proven hit on Broadway, where, alas, it lost the Tony Award for best musical to "Nine" in 1982.

Many early viewers of "The Pursuit of Happyness" say that its potential is far beyond just a best-actor bid for Will Smith, since it's a well-crafted weepie based upon a real-life person in the tradition of past champs like "A Beautiful Mind."
(DreamWorks/ Sony)

The Envelope's odds scored fairly high, nailing 10 of the top 12 categories. Congrats to our own Steve Pond of The Envelope for achieving the highest score in all categories (19). Oh, if only I hadn't switched three predictions on Oscar morning, ditching the three eventual winners, I would've triumphed with a score of 20, but, alas…

19 — Steve Pond (The Envelope)

18 — Michael Phillips (Chicago Tribune)

17 — Tom O'Neil (The Envelope), Gene Seymour (Newsday), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

16 — Mike Sragow (Baltimore Sun)

15 — Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net)

14 — Ken Tucker (Entertainment Weekly)

Academy Award voters sure are gracious. They hate to see a contender lose, especially more than once in a night, so multiple nominees often win at least one statuette.

Although writers and directors can have more than one nomination per category, actors can't, but many still manage to reap chances in the lead and supporting races in the same year. Not all successfully, alas. Poor Sigourney Weaver lost same-year bids for "Gorillas in the Mist" and "Working Girl" and Julianne Moore went home empty-handed despite dual noms for "Far from Heaven" and "The Hours."

However, all of these stars prevailed in one category despite losing in another (note: the winning film is cited first): Jamie Foxx ("Ray," "Collateral"), Jessica Lange ("Tootsie," "Frances"), Holly Hunter ("The Piano," "The Firm") and Al Pacino ("Scent of a Woman," "Glengarry Glen Ross").

Heck, Barry Fitzgerald was nominated in both the lead and supporting categories for the same role as a crusty geezer priest in "Going My Way." He won in supporting when it was clear that the lead race was going Bing Crosby's way. Nowadays one role can no longer compete in two races.

Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton, and Matt Damon lost acting races the same years they won Oscars for screenplay writing.

Oscar voters' seldom-hailed hospitality is the reason I'm picking George Clooney to win best supporting actor for "Syriana." I figure it'll be his consolation prize for losing the director and screenplay categories (for "Good Night, and Good Luck"). Clooney can't win best director. Nobody's getting around "Brokeback's" Ang Lee and all academy members know that, just as they are keenly aware that the Oscar for original screenplay inevitably will go to "Crash." Not just because academy members love "Crash" and want to reward it someplace, but because they know it's overdue homage to "Million Dollar Baby" scribes Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco. Last year everybody won an Oscar for their "Baby" but them when that screenplay prize went to "Sideways." Now there's no other place to hail Clooney but in the supporting actor's slot.

Most stars who have been nommed for the same triple crown — writing, director and acting — have reaped at least one win. Orson Welles proved victorious for his "Citizen Kane" screenplay. Woody Allen won laurels for writing and directing "Annie Hall." Warren Beatty was honored for directing "Reds."

But, beware: Beatty lost triple bids the year of "Heaven Can Wait." But that had big comic turns and academy members, as we all know, have no sense of humor. That's one of the reasons Charlie Chaplin lost those same triple noms for "The Great Dictator." The other reason was that the academy was fiercely jealous of Chaplin's artistic freedom and popular and critical success, so much so that, back at the very first Oscars race, they threw out his trio of bids for "The Circus." Just out of meanness. Then they relented and tried to pay him off with an honorary award, but the Little Tramp got the last laugh. He refused to show up to accept it.

Photo: Orson Welles lost bids for best actor and director, but won an Oscar for writing "Citizen Kane."
(RKO Pictures)

A few weeks ago Newsday film critic Gene Seymour generously wrote out his Oscar predix for The Envelope. Looks like he's changed his mind in three categories since — supporting actor (dumping Paul Giamatti for Matt Dillon), musical score (goodbye "Brokeback," hello "Geisha") and song (now prefers "Pimp" to "Travelin' Through"). Below are Seymour's full predictions, as originally written, followed by his updates in each race.

BEST PICTURE
X - "Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

The only thing that could brake this juggernaut's momentum — and it’s by no means unlikely — is some manner of "Brokeback" fatigue; e.g., people hearing for so long how "great" the movie is and how it can't possibly match the hype and/or heightened expectations after so many months, blah blah blah. Right now, this minute, none of the other nominees has “Brokeback’s” heart-as-big-as-all-outdoors. And, as we've seen repeatedly over the decades, "heart" trumps every other consideration, especially in this category.

(Feb. 25) All the elements of an upset are swirling around this one. “Crash” is bearing down, harder than any movie has on a front-runner in recent memory. But there’s a lot of historical precedent to get by. I’m staying with “Brokeback,” but I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m wrong.