• Five-time Oscar nominee Marc Shaiman is returning to the Oscarcast as musical director six years after conducting the orchestra for Billy Crystal's swan song as host. Shaiman earned three of his four Emmy nods for his work on the Oscars, sharing in the 1992 writing win for penning Crystal's opening medley to the 64th edition of the kudos. Shaiman has lost Oscar bids for both scores --  "The American President" (1995); "The First Wives Club" (1996) and "Patch Adams" (1998) -- and songs --  "A Wink and a Smile" from "Sleepless in Seattle" (1993) and "Blame Canada" from "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" (1999). For that last losing nod, Shaiman played escort to co-writers Trey Parker and Matt Stone dressed a la Jennifer Lopez and Gywneth Paltrow. The talented musical maestro will be reuniting with Oscarcast producer Adam Shankman who helmed the 2007 film version of Shaiman's Tony-winning 2003 musical "Hairspray." AMPAS

• Todd Martens judged the AMA performances and gave his top marks of A- to Rihanna -- "Ne-Yo told us that the R' in her 'Rated R' stands for either 'remarkable' or 'really, really sexy.' Not quite sure if it completely hit both of those notes, but it was definitely over too soon" -- and Whitney Houston -- "If her instrument isn't what it once was, it can still silence a room. Compared to Blige a few songs ago, Houston was perhaps a bit over the top, but she belted until she was nearly out of breath. It was a powerful moment." POP & HISS

• Rick Porter reports that Sunday night's AMA Awards got the biggest audience for the Alphabet net's annual musicfest in seven years. However, even this was not enough to beat the Peacock's NFL game: "NBC averaged 12.94 million viewers and an 8.0 rating/13 share in households on Sunday, edging CBS (12.69 million, 7.8/12) and ABC (12.14 million, 7.3/12) for the lead." ZAP2IT

• Pete Hammond continues to tout the Oscar potential of Sandra Bullock, star of "The Blind Side." Admits Pete, "I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating." Pete thinks, "It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars attention a la Julia Roberts in 'Erin Brockovich.'" However, as he notes, "Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for 'Brockovich' and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something 'Blind Side' won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Ryan Adams was wowed by Sunday's "60 Minutes" segment  on Oscar-winning helmer James Cameron ("Titanic") and his upcoming "Avatar." Said Ryan, "there’s an entirely different segment of the Academy elders who recognize the respect and prestige a '60 Minutes' profile can bestow. Having Morley Safer, the veteran CBS Yoda of culture and sophisticated taste give a movie his stamp of enthusiastic anticipation is a showcase more esteemed than money can buy. After some recent worries that 'Avatar' marketing was skewing for maximum youth appeal, many of us have been needing to see it validated as sincere grown-up sci-fi, hoping for a re-certification of maturity. Tonight on '60 Minutes' I think we got it."  AWARDS DAILY

• Following in the footsteps of James Cameron as this year's recipient of the Vanguard award from the Producers Guild of America is Joss Whedon. The award salutes achievements in new media and technology and the roster of previous recipients also includes George Lucas and John Lasseter. Whedon -- equally successful as a TV producer ("Buffy the Vamprie Slayer") and webcast wiz ("Dr. Horrible's Sing-a-Long Blog") -- was cited by kudos co-chairs David Friendly and Laurence Mark for having, "mastered the art of melding the newest technology with inspired storytelling, truly exemplifying the spirit of the Vanguard Award." PGA

• The Santa Barbara filmfest also has a Vanguard award and this year is spreading the wealth around naming a quartet of talent -- Vera Farmiga, Peter Sarsgaard, Stanley Tucci and Christoph Waltz -- as winners. The kudo "was created in recognition of an actor who has forged his/her own path, taking artistic risks and making a significant and unique contribution to film. In previous years, this award was first bestowed on Ryan Gosling and last year to Kristin Scott Thomas." For fest director Roger Durling, “This group of supporting actors encompasses the best of the best; their roles have made us love them as well as hate them, sometimes all at the same time. I am so pleased to have all of them together, in one place to celebrate them and thank them for the cinematic treasures they have created." SBIFF

• For Sasha Stone, "There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be." Says Sasha, "'Up in the Air' is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can." Wonders Sasha, "Are there any surprises left to be played out?" AWARDS DAILY

• Lane Brown sees the Oscar hopes of "Nine" as on the rise: "For a movie this well pedigreed not to get a nomination, something would have to have gone terribly wrong. A big response at a SAG screening seemingly indicates that that hasn't happened." And among actors, Lane says, "Just three weeks after entering the race, "Crazy Heart" star Jeff Bridges is already the prohibitive favorite. And a great-looking new trailer subtly reminds us that the four-time Academy Award nominee has never won." NEW YORK

• Jeff Wells remains down on the best picture prospects of "Up." Says Jeff, "I sure didn't see 'Up' as a metaphor for anything in my life, I can tell you. It's just a high-strung animated story with a lot of gee-gosh stuff going on and some recognizable heart-and-spirit issues propelling the two main characters." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• And Anne Thompson was less than impressed with the American remake of "Brothers." As Anne writes, "David Benioff is a gifted writer ('The 25th Hour'). Jim Sheridan is a gifted director ('In America'). Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman are gifted actors. So what went wrong on the road to Relativity and Lionsgate’s American adaptation of Danish writer-director Susanne Bier’s extraordinary 2004 movie 'Brothers'?" THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD

Photos from top: Trey Parker, Matt Stone and Marc Shaiman at the 1999 Academy Awards ceremony (Los Angeles Times); "The Blind Side" poster (Warner Bros.); "Up in the Air" poster (Paramount)

Changing the Oscars' voting method in just one category — best picture — is odd. Suddenly, academy leaders believe that using the preferential voting method that's employed now to determine Oscars nominees is the best way to pick a winner in the top race (which will have 10 nominees), but not the others (which will still have five). Thus voters will rank their faves when deciding the best-picture race, but merely check off their number-one choice of a winner in all other categories. Huh? 

When Steve Pond (The Wrap) broke the news of the new voting system yesterday, he quoted academy executive director Bruce Davis saying, "There are certain mathematical dangers with more nominees. You could really get a fragmentation to the point where a picture with 18% or 20% of the vote could win, and the board didn't want that to happen."

OK, but why not use the preferential ballot in all Academy Awards races? No doubt the answer to that is: butt out — the Oscars have used the current voting method to determine winners in the vast majority of categories since the 1930s. Can't mess with tradition. When there were more than five nominees for best picture between 1934 and 1943, the preferential ballot was used to choose winners, so that's what must be done again. Period. Oscar tradition and history are sacred.

But that means future voting will be schizophrenic and illogical. To see what that may mean, let's examine what occurred from 1934 to 1943 when there were more than five nominees — and in 1944 and 1945 when there were just five, but preferential voting still decided champs.

In the 63 Oscar derbies since 1945, the films that won best picture also won best director — using the same voting method — 50 times (80% overlap). During the 12 derbies (1934-1945) when schizophrenic voting was used, the two categories agreed eight times (67%).

One of the most notable disagreements between those races back in the old days led to one of Oscar's greatest tragedies: the snubbing of one of Hollywood's greatest directors, Alfred Hitchcock, who ended up going to his grave Oscarless despite the fact that his film, "Rebecca," won best picture of 1940. Hitchcock ended losing the helmer's honor to John Ford ("The Grapes of Wrath").

Doesn't this snub suggest that the same kind of outrage could occur in the future? Doesn't logic suggest that the year's best picture is also its best directed?

Lead actor winner Sean Penn ("Milk") has completed production on "The Tree of Life." This new film from Oscar-nominated writer/director Terrence Malick ("The Thin Red Line") tells the tale of a boy growing up in the Midwest of the 1950s. As a framework to that, Penn plays the grown-up version of the character coming to grips with his past. Rival lead actor nominee Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") also stars in this drama that has no definite release date as of yet.

Today Variety is reporting that the politically minded Penn may play another real-life character — Ambassador Joseph Wilson, whose wife Valerie Plame (Naomi Watts) had her CIA cover blown by the Bush administration — in "Fair Game" from helmer Doug Liman ("Mr. and Mrs. Smith").

After back-to-back filming of grueling roles in both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road," lead actress winner Kate Winslet is taking a well-earned rest. However, there is no stopping supporting actress winner Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") who just wrapped production on the highly anticipated "Nine," which is due out at Thanksgiving.

This movie version of the 1982 Tony Award-winning musical (which was inspired by Federico Fellini's 1963 Oscar-winning "8 1/2") is loaded with Oscar winners: Daniel Day-Lewis as a wayward film director, Marion Cotillard as his faithful wife, Cruz as his mistress, Nicole Kidman as his protege, Judi Dench as his mentor and Sophia Loren as his mother. All are under the direction of Oscar nominee Rob Marshall ("Chicago").

And Cruz recently reunited with her good friend and mentor Pedro Almodovar to make "Los Abrazos Rotos" ("Loose Embraces"). Almodovar directed Cruz to a 2006 lead actress nomination for "Volver." For their fourth film together, they have made a modern-day film noir about a love square that will be released stateside in the fall.

RELATED POST:

Sean Penn is the ninth actor to win two lead Oscars

Oscar winners were predicted by guild awards

Live blogging the Oscars

Photo: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press

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OSCAR PREDICTIONS

• Gold Derby's gutsy, 100% accurate Oscars predictions

• Gold Derby odds on the top Oscars races

• Experts predict who'll win the Oscars

• Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke in a real heavyweight bout

• Can Meryl Streep beat Kate Winslet at the Oscars?

• Rookie pundit needs a new Oscars crystal ball

OSCARS TELECAST

• Will Rob Pattinson sing with Mary Poppins at the Oscars?

• Will Miley Cyrus, Beyonce, Zac Efron and Rob Pattinson wow Oscars' viewers?

• 'Twilight' star Robert Pattinson will be an Oscars presenter

• Some Oscars TV ads still for sale — only $1.4 million a pop!

• Oscars are the Emmys' biggest winner

OSCARS HOST: HUGH JACKMAN

• Sneak Peek: See Hugh Jackman warming up his Oscar act

• Can Hugh Jackman continue the Oscars' love affair with Emmys?

OSCAR NOMINEES

• Heath Ledger's ultimate joke on the Oscars?

• Heath Ledger's family plans to take his Oscar, which should go to Matilda if he wins!

• Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie could be latest couple cursed at the Oscars

• Will Brad Pitt lose best actor due to Oscars' Slap the Stud Syndrome?

• Will the Babe Factor help Kate Winslet in a close Oscars contest with Meryl Streep?

• Watch out, Mickey Rourke: Indie Spirit is Oscar's consolation prize

• Penelope Cruz: 'Whatever happens, I will probably have a few beers and I don't drink!'

• No 'Doubt' Viola Davis could win at Oscars for portraying a long-suffering wife

OSCAR RACES

• 'Slumdog Millionaire' isn't doomed at the Oscars just because its actors got snubbed

• The Oscars' best picture usually = big picture

• Could 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button' suffer the worst shut-out in Oscars history?

• No, there is no bias against foreigners at the Oscars

• Here's why there will be an Oscars upset for best foreign film

OSCAR FLASHBACK

• Did 'Ben-Hur' deserve to win best picture at the Oscars?

OSCAR QUIZZES

• Quiz: Which actor had the most Oscar bids in a row?

• Quiz: Which Bette Davis flick suffered the worst Oscars' shut-out?

• Quiz: Who turned down Jodie Foster's Oscar-winning role in 'Lambs'?

• Quiz: Who won an Oscar on her birthday?

• Quiz: Which Oscar-winning role was not gay?

• Quiz: How much does an Oscar cost to make?

• Quiz: Which movies won for writing, directing and acting, but failed to win best picture?

Illustration by Ty Wilson

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BEST PICTURE:GOLD DERBY RACE TRACK ODDS
"Slumdog Millionaire" — 2/3
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — 5/2
"The Dark Knight" — 4/1
"Frost/Nixon" — 20/1
"Milk —  20/1"

Only three of the five films cited above are real locks when Oscar nominations are announced Thursday morning: "Slumdog Millionaire," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Milk." When I talk to Oscars voters, it's clear that all three have passionate core followings that will deliver what's needed for a nomination: enough No. 1-ranked votes on the academy's odd preferential ballot. Remember, movies need to have a strong rooting factor to get in. Voters rank five films on their initial ballot when listing their choices for best picture bids, but really only top-ranked (and sometimes second-ranked) count.

"Frost/Nixon" is widely admired, so I think it's in too. Assuming so, what's the fifth film? That's the Big Question. Check out my insomnia-plagued video where I try to sort out, amid twisted sheets during a dark night, the mystery surrounding that other "Dark Knight."

No superhero movie's ever been nominated for best picture, but "The Dark Knight," let's face it, really was The Picture of 2008 —  the most seen, most discussed, most important in many ways. If Batman breaks into this top Oscars smackdown, he could land with the most nominations and win. The movie with the most bids has triumphed as best pic 15 times over the last 20 years. "Slumdog," beware!

But a few other movies also have passionate supporters. Don't make the mistake of believing that those Clint-crazy academy members will pay off their love of "Gran Torino" with a nomination in the lead actor race. After all, it's a performance-driven film. That makes sense, sure. But Oscar races are determined by peer group —  the acting nominations by the 1,300 members of the academy's acting branch. What about the Clint fantatics among the other 4,500 members? The only place they may have to give Clint a hug is in the best-picture slot.

Oscar voters are often wild about Holocaust flicks too, of course, and there's strong support among academy members for "The Reader," which offers a new, compelling and controversial view of that tragedy. It asks us to be sympathetic to a woman responsible for some of the deaths — and she doesn't seem especially repentant about it, just haunted. Yikes. But as daring as its premise is, "The Reader" got nominated for best drama picture at the Golden Globes and many academy members are solidly behind it too. Enough?

"Doubt" has a longshot chance of getting in. Usually, films with several acting nominations (which this one will surely have — Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Viola Davis, maybe Amy Adams) and a screenplay bid make the Oscars high five. But, frankly, I doubt it can make it. This film asks us to be sympathetic to a priest accused of child molestation and it doesn't have a satisfying resolution like "The Reader." Yes, "Doubt" won best play at Broadway's Tony Awards, but I think the film adaptation took a dangerous turn and dispels some of the doubt viewers feel about his guilt or innocence.

Lots of Oscarologists insist that "The Dark Knight" is now a shoo-in to be nominated for best picture at the Oscars because of how well it fared at the early guild awards.

"The Dark Knight" nabbed nominations from three of the key union kudos — the producers', writers' and directors' guilds. Usually, that means a film is a lock to land in the Oscars' high five.

However, several films pulled off that same accomplishment in the past and still got snubbed at the Academy Awards. They include two movies pictured below. Can you spot them? See the answer HERE!

(Thanks to Gold Derby forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum for digging up this trivia.)

MORE GOLD DERBY OSCARS QUIZZES!

What movie nabbed the most Oscars without winning best picture?

Easiest Oscars quiz ever: Which two movies suffered the worst shut-out?

Who gave this shocking acceptance speech at the Oscars?

Which of these Oscars champs did not go undefeated?

Which nun role was not nominated at the Oscars?

Who said this in their acceptance speech? "Gee, this isn't like I imagined it would be in the bathtub?"

Which of these four best-picture champs also had its director nominated?

Can you spot the sole best-actor nominee? (Part 1)

Can you spot the sole best-actor nominee? (Part 2)

Four films now look like good bets for best-picture nominations in the Oscar derby: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk" and "Slumdog Millionaire." What will get that fifth slot? Most Oscarologists focus on "The Dark Knight," "Doubt" and "Revolutionary Road."

But what about that sly, adorable, quiet "Wall-E"? I asked a slew of Oscarologists to pipe in. T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, HollywoodReporter.com) isn't optimistic: "As much as I'd like to see it happen — "Wall-E" was one of my favorites this year — I doubt it will." Ed Douglas (Comingsoon.net) pooh-poohed the notion: "There are too many good live-action films vying for those five spots."

However, Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com) is optimistic: "It's possible with that fifth slot open." Mark Harris (Entertainment Weekly) and Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope) both point to a key factor — how Oscar voting works, technically speaking. "Wall-E" has a lot of passionate supporters. "When I think about the importance of the preferential ballot, 'Wall-E' strikes me as a movie that's going to get a lot of No. 1 votes," Mark says. Remember, even if two-thirds of voters don't list it anywhere among their five choices ranked for best picture, "Wall-E" can still be nominated with a small percentage of No. 1 votes.

But academy members have an obvious bias against animated films. Only one has ever been nominated for best picture: "Beauty and the Beast" (1991). That means they had the audacity to snub "Snow White," "Fantasia" and "Toy Story"! Finally, in 2001, the academy couldn't take the embarrassment any longer and opted to create a separate race just for best animated feature. However, just like nominees in the foreign film race, movies up for best animated feature are also eligible in the top race.

Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) admits, "Sometimes those films are better than the English-language ones, but they rarely cross over." However, they do — occasionally — cross over. "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (2000) and "Z" (1969) are two examples of films nominated for best picture and best foreign-language film in the same year. Other flicks competed in both races, but in different years because of discrepancies in U.S. and overseas release dates. "The Emigrants" was up for best foreign flick in 1971, for example, and landed in the over-all best-pic race one year later.

But some Oscar gurus believe that the bias against animated fare is too strong. Academy members seem to shrug off cartoon movies automatically as kids' stuff. Kris Tapley (InContention.com) asserts, "The argument that it should be relegated to animated without a second thought is and always has been silly. The award is best picture, not best live action feature." But Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope) is not optimistic that things will change imminently: "I doubt that prejudiced opinion of the animated form is going to change anytime soon."

Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com) thinks Oscar voters look at movies like "Wall-E" like they're from outer space — or Mexico. Voicing their bull-headed view, he harrumphs: "There is no need for it to cross the Rio Grande and obtain American citizenship. It's fine as it is. It's a great animated film, and will win the Oscar in that category, and that's fine."

Here are the more extensive views of each of these pundits piping in on the subject:

MARK HARRIS, ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: Do I think it's possible? Yes, I do. I'm not saying that I think it will happen, but when I think about the importance of the preferential ballot, "Wall-E" strikes me as a movie that's going to get a lot of No. 1 votes.

I think a big difference between this year and last year is that at the end of 2007 the number of movies with some sort of passionate following was pretty staggering. There were at least three live-action movies that didn't get best picture nominations — "Into the Wild," "Sweeney Todd," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" — that I would imagine had a substantial number of No. 1 votes. This year, I don't sense that depth of support for that many movies. "Wall-E" is one of the few that I hear people discussing with real passion. It'll be interesting to see if that adds up to votes.

SASHA STONE, AWARDSDAILY.COM: Absolutely yes. It would be a protest vote that said they didn't like the year's live action offerings.  The actors may be the largest branch, but they can still be outvoted.  "Wall-E" is likely to be a one or two and not a three or four choice.  It's possible with that fifth slot open.

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Dave Karger and I hooked up yesterday at Entertainment Weekly's office in New York to noodle the top three Oscar races. Here's our take on the best-picture race and Dave's intriguing theory that we may know who's ahead based upon combing the top 10 lists of AFI, Critics Choice and the National Board of Review. Coming soon: Our video slugfests on best actor and actress matchups. If you want an embedding code for this video, grab it at this YouTube link.

Camera work by Paul Sheehan

Right now I think we've got two sure bets for best-picture nominations ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Slumdog Millionaire") and one good one ("The Dark Knight"). (To see what other pundits think, CLICK HERE for our latest predix rundown.)

My views are based upon the mechanics of how Oscar voting works. Remember, academy members list five flicks on their ballot when choosing nominees, but, really, only No. 1 votes count. (OK, and sometimes No. 2 votes too, but you get the point.) Therefore, contenders must have a high Rooting Factor and, when you see "Slumdog," you'll understand why so many gurus consider it a shoo-in to be nominated and even believe that it has a serious chance to win. (This year's "Chariots of Fire"?)

I haven't seen "Benjamin Button" yet, but the buzz around town has been deafening for months, and now it's confirmed by one top Oscarologist who's seen it. Check out the "wow" comment in Dave Karger's blog at EW.

"Button" has a few other things going for it. It's based upon a F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, so it has literary snob appeal (very important) and it's a big, long, sprawling epic (best picture = big picture in voters' minds) full of dazzling cinematography, special effects and music by academy darlings. That means it'll snag lots of nominations. Over the last 20 years, the film with the most bids has won best picture 15 times.

"Dark Knight" will get lots of bids in those tech races too, natch, which will help to lift it up to the best-pic slot. But superhero popcorn pix don't usually fly in the highest Oscar race, of course. This one's different, though, for lots of reasons that don't need repeating here.

The other two best-pic slots are wide open. "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon" are strong possibilities because they're expertly made dramas based upon hit Broadway plays about real (important) people portrayed in powerhouse performances. They will have wide support in the acting and writing branches, plus others. (The directors' branch will pay close attention to past champ Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon.")  Usually, those types of films get in to the top race — like "The Queen" and "Capote."

I have some doubt about "Doubt," though. I think writer-director John Patrick Shanley made a huge mistake by adding one quick, throw-away scene to the film's ending that may hurt its Oscar hopes hugely. After productions of Shanley's "Doubt" on Broadway, the audience was often polled to find out if they believed the priest was guilty or innocent of child molestation. Results were almost always split, thus underscoring the drama's title. However, at the end of the first film screening in New York, I asked a dozen attendees the same question and (SPOILER ALERT — skip over this paragraph and the next if you want to remain in suspense) every single person said, "He's guilty." The reason: the glimpse of a white boy snickering in a church pew as Philip Seymour Hoffman bids goodbye to his parishioners. Since this chap is one of the boys believed to be molested by Hoffman, it's obvious he's snickering in triumph now. At a cocktail reception after the film screening a few weeks ago, I asked Shanley why he included that scene since it clearly seems to dispel all doubt from "Doubt." He got so offended by the question that he turned away from me and bolted.

The reason this issue matters a lot in the Oscar derby now is the Ick Factor. Two years ago, the superb "Little Children" looked like a cinch to be nominated for best picture, but voters got turned off by its sympathetic portrayal of a child molestor. That same ickiness might not apply to "Doubt" if we didn't know what to think at the end, but since Shanley seems to settle the matter on film, he may have driven a nail into the coffin of his own Oscar hopes for best picture or director. The screenplay and acting races will probably still be OK. "Little Children" got nominated for those.

"Milk" is very similar to "Frost/Nixon" — a biopic driven by a fireworks performance -- and it's wowing early screening audiences. Surely, Sean Penn and supporting cast will be nominated by the gay-friendly acting branch. But how other academy members will swallow "Milk" as best picture is a mystery. "Brokeback Mountain" got nominated, but when it lost to "Crash," that was, I believe, clear evidence of quiet homophobia within the overall academy, which is dominated by ole str8 guys. Being the story of a militant, "Milk" is much more gay — in every way — than "Brokeback." At least a few queasy academy members will shut off their DVD screeners after just 10 minutes if they get creeped out by scenes of a craggy-faced Sean Penn lusting after cherubic James Franco in the subway, then Franco licking whipped cream off Penn later when they're naked in bed. Hmmmm. Do you think there's any chance that academy members Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine will put "Milk" in the top space on their ballots?

It may not matter. That's what is fascinating about Oscar's preferential ballot process. Theoretically,79% of the academy could leave "Milk" off their ballots entirely and "Milk" could still be nominated with only 21% first-place votes. There certainly is a large pro-gay contingent within AMPAS that may be strongly motivated to support this film about the struggle for gay rights now in the aftermath of California's ban on gay marriage.

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I invited The Envelope's forum moderators to give us their early Oscars predictions: Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Matthew "Boidiva2" Cormier, Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and Rob Licuria.