Right now I think we've got two sure bets for best-picture nominations ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Slumdog Millionaire") and one good one ("The Dark Knight"). (To see what other pundits think, CLICK HERE for our latest predix rundown.)

My views are based upon the mechanics of how Oscar voting works. Remember, academy members list five flicks on their ballot when choosing nominees, but, really, only No. 1 votes count. (OK, and sometimes No. 2 votes too, but you get the point.) Therefore, contenders must have a high Rooting Factor and, when you see "Slumdog," you'll understand why so many gurus consider it a shoo-in to be nominated and even believe that it has a serious chance to win. (This year's "Chariots of Fire"?)

I haven't seen "Benjamin Button" yet, but the buzz around town has been deafening for months, and now it's confirmed by one top Oscarologist who's seen it. Check out the "wow" comment in Dave Karger's blog at EW.

"Button" has a few other things going for it. It's based upon a F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, so it has literary snob appeal (very important) and it's a big, long, sprawling epic (best picture = big picture in voters' minds) full of dazzling cinematography, special effects and music by academy darlings. That means it'll snag lots of nominations. Over the last 20 years, the film with the most bids has won best picture 15 times.

"Dark Knight" will get lots of bids in those tech races too, natch, which will help to lift it up to the best-pic slot. But superhero popcorn pix don't usually fly in the highest Oscar race, of course. This one's different, though, for lots of reasons that don't need repeating here.

The other two best-pic slots are wide open. "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon" are strong possibilities because they're expertly made dramas based upon hit Broadway plays about real (important) people portrayed in powerhouse performances. They will have wide support in the acting and writing branches, plus others. (The directors' branch will pay close attention to past champ Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon.")  Usually, those types of films get in to the top race — like "The Queen" and "Capote."

I have some doubt about "Doubt," though. I think writer-director John Patrick Shanley made a huge mistake by adding one quick, throw-away scene to the film's ending that may hurt its Oscar hopes hugely. After productions of Shanley's "Doubt" on Broadway, the audience was often polled to find out if they believed the priest was guilty or innocent of child molestation. Results were almost always split, thus underscoring the drama's title. However, at the end of the first film screening in New York, I asked a dozen attendees the same question and (SPOILER ALERT — skip over this paragraph and the next if you want to remain in suspense) every single person said, "He's guilty." The reason: the glimpse of a white boy snickering in a church pew as Philip Seymour Hoffman bids goodbye to his parishioners. Since this chap is one of the boys believed to be molested by Hoffman, it's obvious he's snickering in triumph now. At a cocktail reception after the film screening a few weeks ago, I asked Shanley why he included that scene since it clearly seems to dispel all doubt from "Doubt." He got so offended by the question that he turned away from me and bolted.

The reason this issue matters a lot in the Oscar derby now is the Ick Factor. Two years ago, the superb "Little Children" looked like a cinch to be nominated for best picture, but voters got turned off by its sympathetic portrayal of a child molestor. That same ickiness might not apply to "Doubt" if we didn't know what to think at the end, but since Shanley seems to settle the matter on film, he may have driven a nail into the coffin of his own Oscar hopes for best picture or director. The screenplay and acting races will probably still be OK. "Little Children" got nominated for those.

"Milk" is very similar to "Frost/Nixon" — a biopic driven by a fireworks performance -- and it's wowing early screening audiences. Surely, Sean Penn and supporting cast will be nominated by the gay-friendly acting branch. But how other academy members will swallow "Milk" as best picture is a mystery. "Brokeback Mountain" got nominated, but when it lost to "Crash," that was, I believe, clear evidence of quiet homophobia within the overall academy, which is dominated by ole str8 guys. Being the story of a militant, "Milk" is much more gay — in every way — than "Brokeback." At least a few queasy academy members will shut off their DVD screeners after just 10 minutes if they get creeped out by scenes of a craggy-faced Sean Penn lusting after cherubic James Franco in the subway, then Franco licking whipped cream off Penn later when they're naked in bed. Hmmmm. Do you think there's any chance that academy members Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine will put "Milk" in the top space on their ballots?

It may not matter. That's what is fascinating about Oscar's preferential ballot process. Theoretically,79% of the academy could leave "Milk" off their ballots entirely and "Milk" could still be nominated with only 21% first-place votes. There certainly is a large pro-gay contingent within AMPAS that may be strongly motivated to support this film about the struggle for gay rights now in the aftermath of California's ban on gay marriage.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

I invited The Envelope's forum moderators to give us their early Oscars predictions: Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Matthew "Boidiva2" Cormier, Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and Rob Licuria.

I'm getting sick and tired of beating up on this topic, but since it just reared its ugly head again in a ridiculous Hollywood Reporter article about Oscar strategy that contradicts itself, I can't resist wailing away one more time.

Can we finally bury, once and for all, the absurd myth that it's a terrible thing to be out front early in the derby?

That's the notion uninformed Oscar pundits keep touting to explain why "Brokeback Mountain," "Dreamgirls" and other early faves trip up. But timing seldom has anything to do with those tumbles. Now the Hollywood Reporter suggests that being the early front-runner was one of the key factors in Julie Christie's recent loss — that plus aggressive late campaigning by Marion Cotillard.

"Avoid looking invincible," the Reporter warns future contenders. "Julie Christie looked unbeatable for best actress, but Marion Cotillard spent weeks working the Los Angeles awards circuit while Christie stayed home. Oscar voters rewarded the Frenchwoman."

That's not why Cotillard won. But more on that in a minute.

Now here comes the real howler in the HR article.

"Cannes is back," it declares. "Conventional thinking — and the dashed hopes of 'Dreamgirls' in 2006 — had strategists thinking that you can't start a campaign at the festival and keep it going for months. But 2007 Croisette darling 'No Country for Old Men' proved that with the right campaign it can be done."

So let me grasp this correctly: "Dreamgirls" disappointed at the Oscars because early hype built up too soon at Cannes in May 2006, but "No Country" managed to defy that issue last year because someone, mysteriously, someplace, had decreed that "Cannes is back" now?

Who decided this? Where did Cannes go in the interim? Oh, this is pure Oscar poppycock! Enough!

This year,"No Country" got out front early in the derby and stayed there because that's what most winners do — just like other recent best-pic champs "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "Titanic" and "American Beauty." Heck, it's so hard for early front-runners to stumble that "A Beautiful Mind" managed to prevail despite being under siege by major media for sugar-coating the real-life story of its flawed hero. (There was no "smear campaign," but let's not go into that again.)

The 15th and final incarnation of the Oscar buzzmeter promises some surprising results on Sunday night. What began at the end of last October with 26 pundits predicting the top eight races has grown to 32 panelists, many of whom offer their thoughts on all 24 Oscar categories. Some skip a few categories here and there (the hardest ones, of course — cowards!).

To see a category-per-category a roundup report, READ THIS.

To view the Buzzmeter, CLICK HERE, then click on various links marked "Individual Panelist's Rankings" in different boxes to see a grid breaking down predix per pundit. Not every link leads to every category, so you have to move around a bit and, beware: there's a temporary tech glitch if you view sections on a PC using Internet Explorer. We'll solve that soon, but, meantime, if the pundits' names are obscured from view, try switching to using a different browser like Firefox or Netscape.

As is often the case, the fall front-runner stumbled coming out of the gate. In our first buzzmeter, 14 of the pundits picked "Atonement" to win best picture while only 3 had "No Country for Old Men" in first place. Now, all but 3 of us see "No Country" taking the top prize.

And while the Coen boys began the derby tied with "Atonement" helmer Joe Wright with eight votes apiece, the directors of "No Country" now have the backing of everyone on the panel with the exception of Sam Rubin, who thinks that "Juno's" Jason Reitman can pull off a shockeroo.

The category with the most conflicting views is supporting actress race, of course — that hotbed of upsets, historically. Cate Blanchett ("I'm Not There") started out the race as the clear front-runner with 22 of us predicting she would win her second Oscar. Ruby Dee did not even register for her small role in "American Gangster." But her memorable few moments in the movie and her recent SAG win now put her in the lead among our pundits: 12 out of 31 voting. Blanchett comes in second place with 8, Tilda Swinton gets 6 and Amy Ryan 5.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Yesterday "There Will Be Blood" was voted best picture by the National Society of Film Critics — after previously winning the same accolade from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association a month ago. That's great Oscar news, eh? Well, maybe.

Over the past 20 years, 6 of the 7 of the films that won both awards ended up being nominated for best picture by the academy. The one that wasn't: "American Splendor." Two overlapping choices won the Oscar for best picture ("Schindler's List," "Unforgiven"). So the odds may look good that "Blood" will be nominated, but beware: all of those overlaps that agreed with the Oscar High Five occurred prior to 2003 when the new Oscar calendar debuted. Arguably, the game is different now for late releases like "Blood," but more on that later. For now, let's look at The Envelope's own Buzzmeter tea leaves. At this exact moment, it is Sunday night, Jan. 6. Current predix were logged before NSFC results were known. Check out those predix: CLICK HERE, then click on the link for "Individual Panelist's Rankings" — make sure the drop-down menu says "Week of Dec. 30." New predix will be posted tomorrow.

Currently, only 8 of our 25 pundits put "Blood" in the top five of likely nominees: Jack Mathews (New York Daily News), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Dave Frear (Time Out NY), Clay Smith ("E.T."/"The Insider") and Jeff Goldsmith (Creative Screenwriting Magazine) and me. Mathews not only believes it will be nominated, but he asserts, "You can count on it!"

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

There hasn't been this much Oscar suspense surrounding best picture since . . . well, last year. But at this point in the derby 12 months ago, many Oscarologists thought the top race was already finished since "Brokeback Mountain" appeared to be so far out in front after sweeping most precursor awards. Now we can see what a mess the race is — tea leaves scattered all over the derby track.

If "The Departed" wins at the Directors Guild of America this weekend as expected, it may appear to be out front. Over the past 20 years, the movie that won this guild prize went on to win best picture 15 times. Please note: I'm not talking about the DGA-winning director claiming the director's award at the Oscars next. Yes, the two usually line up, but that overlap can get a bit screwy and I'm too lazy to do the math.

"The Departed" has a lot of other things going for it — things that usually matter in the selection of a best pic: it's packed with an A-List cast (and what A-Listers! Leo! Jack! Matt!) and has topped $100 million at the box office. But it's not about anything. It has no Message or Great Meaning. That's usually an important, even key, element ("Crash" = expose of racism; "Schindler's List" = expose of anti-Semitism). But not always essential. Some pure entertainments like "The Sting" and "Chicago" have triumphed.

So let's look to the Golden Globes for guidance instead.

The Globes dispense separate kudos for drama and comedy/musical pictures, which makes comparisons to the Oscars difficult, but in the past 62 years, the Academy Awards have validated one of the Globe's top pics 42 times. So that means odds are pretty good that "Dreamgirls" will win the best-pic Oscar . . . oops, I mean "Babel," if you just gauge prophesy by percentages. "Babel" just won best drama picture and it has the Message and Great Meaning, especially pertinent worldwide right now (expose of hysteria over terrorism), but it doesn't have huge box office success. Does that matter? As of this week, Entertainment Weekly and Time magazine say it doesn't. Both predict it will claim the big golden boy, though I have a hunch they'll change their minds after Marty Scorsese wins DGA this weekend.

"Letters from Iwo Jima" can't be written off. As we've learned again and again, Clint Eastwood pix should never be discounted. Three have been nommed for best pic in the past and two have won ("Unforgiven," "Million Dollar Baby"). One of those ("M$B"), ambushed the Oscar race two years ago, getting a sudden, late-breaking release at the end of the year just like "Iwo Jima." And it has a political pertinence to today, too — like "Babel," it has an Iraq thing going on, though more subliminal. "Iwo Jima" forces us to look back at a war we won and reconsider ourselves as the bad guys. It was declared to be 2006's best picture from the L.A. Film Critics Association. Granted, only 7 times in 31 years has LAFCA's choice repeated at the Oscars, but it successfully launched underdogs like "Rocky" and Eastwood's "Unforgiven." However, "Iwo Jima" showcases no big western stars and hasn't proven itself at the box office yet.

What about "The Queen"? Robert Osborne, author of the official Oscar book and official host of the academy's red carpet, thinks it can win, but it has few other boosters.

Lastly, there's "Little Miss Sunshine" — what looks like a fascinating possibility for upset spoiler. It's the one burst of emotional sunshine in an otherwise dreary lineup of contenders. Many people just don't love it, they love it. Recently, it won best picture from the Producers Guild of America, which has a pretty good track record forecasting the top Oscar; 11 of its 17 past choices have repeated. Last Sunday it won the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild. Although only 5 of the past 11 SAG champs went on to win the Oscar, 3 of those did so in the past 4 years. Twice ("Shakespeare in Love," "Crash") its choice signaled upsets to come on Oscar night. But it doesn't have a nomination for best director and only one film in modern times has managed to pull off a top Oscar victory without that ("Driving Miss Daisy"). It's also not nommed for film editing. Often that's a telling tea leaf. No film since 1932 has won best picture without having either nomination.

So . . . the Oscar winner for best picture will be . . . ? Whatcha think? Click the "Comments" link below and tell us!

(Photos: Miramax, Warner Bros., Paramount Vantage, Fox Searchlight)

At this early point in the derby, the dash for best picture has already narrowed considerably to a pack of 10 lead ponies.

Out front: "Babel," "Bobby," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls" "Flags of Our Fathers," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Pursuit of Happyness," "The Queen," "United 93" and "Volver."

Others in the running, but yards behind (more on that later): "Blood Diamond," "Borat," "The Painted Veil," "The Good German," "The Good Shepherd," "Last King of Scotland," "Little Children" and "World Trade Center."

My biggest track bet stays on "Dreamgirls" for now because it's a Broadway-proven, heart-squeezing, feet-tapping dramatization of a real showbiz story that was important to most academy voters during their youth, however much it winks its denial that it's not really about the Supremes.

Best picture winners usually must have a strong corresponding contender for best director — that's Bill Condon, who is emerging, finally, center stage among Hollywood helmers deserving a bow.

It helps that his arrival is relatively new (although I think he was cheated out of due recognition for "Kinsey") because voters like to crown big talent on the rise (Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings," Sam Mendes, "American Beauty") when they're not trying to make up for past snubbings of veterans (Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind," Steven Spielberg, "Schindler's List").

It also has what most best picture winners have: a cast of A-Listers (Beyonce, Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson).

In addition, it'll certainly nab gads of noms across many categories — that's key because the movie with the most nominations usually wins.

Beware: The best-pic victory of another musical, "Chicago" (which Condon adapted from the stage as screenwriter, but didn't direct), may be a fluke.

Other Broadway hits recently flopped when transferred to the Hollywood screen ("The Producers," "Phantom of the Opera") and no film with a black cast has yet won over the vastly white academy electorate.

Furthermore, it will need to prove itself at the box office, which is chancy. Musicals seem so old-fashioned today and so does its story line, although, happily, its telling is updated with hip new stars.

Even if it does well domestically, a black musical faces tough odds at theaters overseas, which could derail it at the Golden Globes where it's up against steep competish in that musical/comedy race opposite "Little Miss Sunshine", "Stranger Than Fiction" and "Borat."

In fact, two members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have told me — with sour, disapproving faces — that they don't think it'll sell overseas, period, which may affect how those foreign journalists vote.

Last, one of its strongest plusses and minuses is that it's about showbiz. Sometimes that helps ("Shakespeare in Love"), but usually, and quite strangely, that topic is a curse at showbiz's top awards — from the defeats of best-pic nominees "Sunset Boulevard" to "Nashville," "All That Jazz," "Coal Miner's Daughter," "The Aviator" and "The Turning Point" (Oscar's biggest loser, tied with "The Color Purple") and many others.

That means we must take rivals seriously like "The Queen," which not only has a hotshot overdue director (Stephen Frears), but features the best actress frontrunner (Helen Mirren) in a real-life role.

Often voters like to pair their best-pic choice with a lead-acting winner ("Million Dollar Baby," "Gladiator," "American Beauty," "Shakespeare in Love," "Rain Man"). Oh, yeah, and it's British (too many examples to cite!). Its reigning magnificently at the box office right now, although in shrewdly restricted release (only 152 theaters).

"Babel" has a hot helmer (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and the A-List cast in a story relevant to today's headlines (hysteria over terrorism).

"Volver" has the strong director advantage, too (Pedro Almodovar) and the possible best actress winner (Penelope Cruz has The Babe Factor in a race crowded with older gals), although being in Spanish probably dooms its chance to win.

"The Departed" has surprising b.o., A-List celebs galore and the woefully overdue-director element (Martin Scorsese), but it's an actioner without an important message.

If "Flags of Our Fathers" gets into the top five, it will be given a major push soon after noms come out by the release of its Japanese mirror, "Letters from Iwo Jima," but Clint is so been-there-done-that right now and "Flags" is drooping commercially.

"Little Miss Sunshine" may seem too lightweight.

"United 93" came out too early and doesn't have a shot in the acting races, which is often key, but it does have behind it one of the most aggressive Oscar campaigners in the biz, a graduate with honors from The Harvey School.

Speaking of Harvey Weinstein, "Bobby" not only has major stars in a story of historic importance, but, yeowsa, it has that voracious Oscar conqueror, hungry for a comeback, mapping its academy onslaught.

Drawbacks: Its characters are mostly fictitious, Hollywood is a bit skeptical of its heartthrob director/writer (Emilio Estevez) and film critics aren't cheering it on. However, some audiences sure seem to be.

Pete Hammond reports at HollywoodWiretap.com, "At the AFI Film Fest's "Bobby" opening, applause was so enthusiastic it was hard to hear the rousing, just-recorded, end-credits song co-written by Bryan Adams and duetted by Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige."

Advance buzz over "The Pursuit of Happyness" grows louder every day and it features a guaranteed best-actor nominee who could win (Will Smith), but it may be too sappy and its director is an unknown neophyte.

But sappy is good at the Oscars, as we know. Movies that move voters the most emotionally usually win ("Million Dollar Baby"). So far that looks like "The Pursuit of Happyness," even "Bobby" to some extent and certainly "Dreamgirls."

If the contest comes down to "Dreamgirls" and "Pursuit of Happyness", it would be a vindication for the academy, which, prior to the recent same-year wins by Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), had been accused of being stingy to African-American films.

For now "Dreamgirls" has the most over-all advantages at this point, but it's still unseen and, frankly, if it's true that Bill Condon has played down the Effie/Florence Ballard role (Jennifer Hudson) as rumor has it, that could be catastrophic.

Even though the "Dreamgirls" spotlight is mostly on Deena Jones/Diana Ross (Beyonce) in both stage and screen versions, Effie stole the Broadway show so much so that its performer (Jennifer Holliday) stole the Tony Award for best actress away from the show's lead star (Sheryl Lee Ralph).

If Deena eclipses Effie too much in the movie, "Dreamgirls" loses its soul.

Of the movies in that second tier, "Blood Diamond" has doubters because director Ed Zwick failed to deliver on "The Last Samurai" and because it looks so commercial and because of rumors that Leo DiCaprio departs too often from his South African accent into South Bronx and Confederate South.

(If true, Warner Bros. may need to boost Leo up pronto to the lead race from supporting for "The Departed.")

"The Good Shepherd" suffers from skepticism about Robert DeNiro as a director and the fact that it's not a heart-tugging tale, but early buzz about the script is aces and the topic is a politically urgent one.

"The Good German" looks good, but a bit too commercial/suspense-driven and, strangely, George Clooney is making everybody worry about what he means with his oft-heard remark, "This is Cate's movie!" (Cate Blanchett, of course. Is that a compliment? Or dismissal?)

Like "United 93," "World Trade Center" came out early, too, and there's no huge groundswell behind it at this point.

"Borat" may become a monster hit, but it's too silly.

"Last King of Scotland" and "Little Children" aren't exploding at the box office and it doesn't look likely that "The Painted Veil," however good it is, will either, being a slow-paced period piece.

So, for now, "Dreamgirls" it is.

Photos: Two African-American movies are stand-outs in the best picture race. "Dreamgirls" is the early frontrunner because it's loaded with heart, superstars, a popular emerging director and it's likely to reap wide support across many academy branches. And it was a proven hit on Broadway, where, alas, it lost the Tony Award for best musical to "Nine" in 1982.

Many early viewers of "The Pursuit of Happyness" say that its potential is far beyond just a best-actor bid for Will Smith, since it's a well-crafted weepie based upon a real-life person in the tradition of past champs like "A Beautiful Mind."
(DreamWorks/ Sony)

That poor, big, misunderstood ape didn't even get nominated for best picture at the Oscars, but "King Kong" came out swinging for the top prize at the MTV Movie Awards when nominations were announced today. He's got a good chance of winning, too, considering voters (viewers of MTV and MTV2) like butt-kicking actioners like "Gladiator" and all three "Lord of the Rings" installments. There's hope for "40-Year-Old Virgin" and "Wedding Crashers," too, though. Sometimes comedies get the last laugh — like "There's Something About Mary" did eight years ago.

Meantime, voters resolved that whole "Brokeback Mountain" vs. "Crash" thing by nominating neither of them for best pic. "Virgin" and "Crashers" lead with the most noms each: five.

"Brokeback's" poor Heath Ledger got overlooked in the best performance category despite the fact that his Significant Other got a hug — very curious sinceJake Gyllenhaal had been demoted to the supporting race at other award shows. Recent Oscar champ Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") got snubbed, too, but not his female counterpart. Reese Witherspoon ("Walk the Line") squares off against Joaquin Phoenix just like the Cash couple did on screen, but not for a dance or a duet.

Curiously, Paris Hilton ("House of Wax") could go from Razzie to redemption at the MTV kudos. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are nommed for both best fight and best kiss, but they can kiss that latter kudo goodbye considering they're up against the "Brokeback" boys.

The kudocast airs on MTV on June 6 at 9 p.m. eastern.

BEST MOVIE
"Batman Begins"
"The 40-Year Old Virgin"
"King Kong"
"Sin City"
"Wedding Crashers"

BEST PERFORMANCE
Steve Carell, "The 40-Year Old Virgin"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Rachel McAdams, "Red Eye"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

BEST COMEDIC PERFORMANCE
Steve Carell, "The 40-Year Old Virgin"
Tyler Perry, "Madea's Family Reunion"
Adam Sandler, "The Longest Yard"
Vince Vaughn, "Wedding Crashers"
Owen Wilson, "Wedding Crashers"

Click "Continue Reading" link below to see more nominees!

Photo: "Brokeback" has a lip lock on the best kiss award, of course.
(Focus Features)

"Crash," which earned $55 million at the domestic box office after its debut in cinemas last May, has been out of wide theatrical release for months, but now Lionsgate will roll out to 150 screens this Friday hoping to see a payoff for its Oscar upset. "Crash" will also reopen in the U.K.

The rerelease is small in terms of theater count, but worth the gamble even though the DVD has been out since Sept. 6. Post-Oscar bumps can be profitable for best pic champs. "Million Dollar Baby" earned $65 million as of Oscar night, then another $35 million afterward. "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" added $13 million to its previous $364 million. "A Beautiful Mind" added $16 million to its earlier $154 million. "Chicago" got the biggest bump in recent years, earning another $36 million on top of $134 million. "Gladiator," which had been released the previous summer, reaped the smallest payoff — only $835,000 above its original $187 million.

Hollywood is now buzzing with accusations that homophobia played a lead role in "Brokeback Mountain's" loss as best picture at the Oscars. Is it true?

Let's recall a report I made here recently about one voter barking: "Have you ever seen the audience at an official academy screening? There's no way that crowd's voting for 'Brokeback'!" What he meant was that they're mostly straight geezers who certainly can't be seduced by some too-pretty young gay cowboys.

One older academy member, an obviously disgusted Tony Curtis, told Fox News reporter Bill McCuddy that he had no intention of watching "Brokeback" and he knew lots of other academy members who felt the same way.

Looks like Curtis is still running away from what scared him in "Spartacus" when Crassus (Laurence Olivier) told his slave Antoninus (Curtis) with a sly smile that he likes both "snails and oysters." Antoninus, a somewhat effeminate poet, skeedattled out of there fast to sign up for Spartacus' manly rebel army.

Curtis' fury was the same thing I saw on lots of faces of academy voters when I asked them what film they chose for best pic. Most of the non-"Brokeback" respondees were obviously anti-"Brokeback" because, before they revealed that they opted for "Crash" or "Good Night, and Good Luck," they began their response huffily, saying, "Well, I'm not voting for 'Brokeback'!" No doubt some of them meant that they didn't feel the film was up to its hype, but it was obvious as heck that others had a problem with the whole gay thing.

Perhaps I've deluded myself so far thinking that those folks can't be homophobes. I just kept telling myself that they're probably thinking, "Oh, enough with all these gay persecution movies already!" But when you hear similar sentiment about a glut of Jewish persecution films, it doesn't seem to matter in the Oscar results. "Schindler's List," "Life is Beautiful" and "Chariots of Fire" still win. But, of course, many gay persecution films have claimed top Oscars too, like "Philadelphia" and "Boys Don't Cry," so maybe it's unfair to think the worst.

"Crash" is a worthy best pic champ, a truly great film that deserves the top Oscar and I'm happy it prevailed, as I always warned you it might. No doubt it has scads of passionate supporters within the academy who truly believe it was the best movie of 2005 and they were enthusiastically won over by the "Crash" cast, crew and studio execs who campaigned with more gusto than those shy cowboys.

But the "Brokeback" backlash, if real, is scary because it suggests something sinister going unsaid and, if it is true in liberal, normally gay-friendly Hollywood, then imagine what that implies about attitudes in less lavender-tolerant parts of America. If Paul Haggis had won best director for his best picture, this fear would be unfounded, but the illogical split vote must make us wonder.

The Envelope's odds scored fairly high, nailing 10 of the top 12 categories. Congrats to our own Steve Pond of The Envelope for achieving the highest score in all categories (19). Oh, if only I hadn't switched three predictions on Oscar morning, ditching the three eventual winners, I would've triumphed with a score of 20, but, alas…

19 — Steve Pond (The Envelope)

18 — Michael Phillips (Chicago Tribune)

17 — Tom O'Neil (The Envelope), Gene Seymour (Newsday), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

16 — Mike Sragow (Baltimore Sun)

15 — Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net)

14 — Ken Tucker (Entertainment Weekly)

"Wow!" Jack Nicholson gasped as he announced the winner of best picture and the cast and crew of "Crash" leapt up from their seats, hugging each other madly, playing out a scene of classic Oscar drama. A TV camera zoomed in on the key protagonist among them as director-screenwriter Paul Haggis mouthed the inaudible words, "Oh my God!"

Thus "Crash" became one of those rare gutsy underdogs that will be hailed forever for pulling off an impossible Oscar upset. Impossible because it defied the odds in every way. "Crash" was a low-budget indie released last May, not in the last few days of 2005 eligibility so it could be fresh in voters' minds.

It didn't have the most nominations. Only three films in the previous 20 years had prevailed in the top race without having the most bids. Its director didn't win the helmer's Oscar, which usually lines up with best pic. It didn't even win any acting awards — another rarity. It didn't have a big Oscar campaign budget either, but it did have a shrewd studio chief behind it, Lionsgate boss Tom Ortenberg, who believed "Crash" could win if only academy members watched it, so he flooded Hollywood with the most DVD screeners ever.

At first he set a new record by shipping out 30,000 copies. Then, emboldened by its growing Oscar buzz, he shipped out 100,000 more to make "Crash" the first film ever sent to the full membership of the Screen Actors Guild.

Its best picture victory is a happy Hollywood ending for "Million Dollar Baby" scribe Paul Haggis, who, along with co-writer Bobby Moresco, were the only ones who didn't win an Oscar for their "Baby" last year when the script prize went to "Sideways."

Haggis had been a showbiz veteran who'd toiled in the TV trenches for decades writing and/or directing episodes of "The Facts of Life," "Love Boat" and "Walker: Texas Ranger." When he finally got the chance to direct his first feature, he had a heart attack in the midst of filming "Crash," but kept on going. When he finished it, the Canadian-born Haggis took it to the Toronto Film Festival where it created a sensation and reaped a distribution deal with Lionsgate.

"Crash" really zoomed ahead when it finally opened in theaters. It did what all great movies are supposed to do — it hung on week after week, gradually building an audience till it became one of the highest-grossing dramas of the year, earning $55 million. When it came out on DVD, it stayed at No. 1 on the sales charts for two full weeks, a rare accomplishment. Meantime, passionate supporters like Oprah Winfrey rallied behind it because it was such an extraordinary film.

"Crash's" A-list cast knew that from the beginning when they were first recruited by Don Cheadle to appear in the film for scale wages. Since it was made merely for $6.5 million, many sacrifices had to be made. Haggis used his own house for a film set. Sandra Bullock and others paid for their own airline tickets to fly to the set.

Academy members know this whole background story, so that's why so many of them jumped up with the cast and crew to give its shocking best pic victory a rousing standing ovation.

If only I had believed in it like they did. Months ago I wrote a column here exclaiming, "Help me! I want to shout 'Crash' will win best picture!'" But I wimped out and played the odds instead, which strongly favored "Brokeback."

Ah, well. It wasn't the only goof I made this year. How long will it take for me to live down that Felicity Huffman prediction, eh?

Academy Award voters sure are gracious. They hate to see a contender lose, especially more than once in a night, so multiple nominees often win at least one statuette.

Although writers and directors can have more than one nomination per category, actors can't, but many still manage to reap chances in the lead and supporting races in the same year. Not all successfully, alas. Poor Sigourney Weaver lost same-year bids for "Gorillas in the Mist" and "Working Girl" and Julianne Moore went home empty-handed despite dual noms for "Far from Heaven" and "The Hours."

However, all of these stars prevailed in one category despite losing in another (note: the winning film is cited first): Jamie Foxx ("Ray," "Collateral"), Jessica Lange ("Tootsie," "Frances"), Holly Hunter ("The Piano," "The Firm") and Al Pacino ("Scent of a Woman," "Glengarry Glen Ross").

Heck, Barry Fitzgerald was nominated in both the lead and supporting categories for the same role as a crusty geezer priest in "Going My Way." He won in supporting when it was clear that the lead race was going Bing Crosby's way. Nowadays one role can no longer compete in two races.

Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton, and Matt Damon lost acting races the same years they won Oscars for screenplay writing.

Oscar voters' seldom-hailed hospitality is the reason I'm picking George Clooney to win best supporting actor for "Syriana." I figure it'll be his consolation prize for losing the director and screenplay categories (for "Good Night, and Good Luck"). Clooney can't win best director. Nobody's getting around "Brokeback's" Ang Lee and all academy members know that, just as they are keenly aware that the Oscar for original screenplay inevitably will go to "Crash." Not just because academy members love "Crash" and want to reward it someplace, but because they know it's overdue homage to "Million Dollar Baby" scribes Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco. Last year everybody won an Oscar for their "Baby" but them when that screenplay prize went to "Sideways." Now there's no other place to hail Clooney but in the supporting actor's slot.

Most stars who have been nommed for the same triple crown — writing, director and acting — have reaped at least one win. Orson Welles proved victorious for his "Citizen Kane" screenplay. Woody Allen won laurels for writing and directing "Annie Hall." Warren Beatty was honored for directing "Reds."

But, beware: Beatty lost triple bids the year of "Heaven Can Wait." But that had big comic turns and academy members, as we all know, have no sense of humor. That's one of the reasons Charlie Chaplin lost those same triple noms for "The Great Dictator." The other reason was that the academy was fiercely jealous of Chaplin's artistic freedom and popular and critical success, so much so that, back at the very first Oscars race, they threw out his trio of bids for "The Circus." Just out of meanness. Then they relented and tried to pay him off with an honorary award, but the Little Tramp got the last laugh. He refused to show up to accept it.

Photo: Orson Welles lost bids for best actor and director, but won an Oscar for writing "Citizen Kane."
(RKO Pictures)

A few weeks ago Newsday film critic Gene Seymour generously wrote out his Oscar predix for The Envelope. Looks like he's changed his mind in three categories since — supporting actor (dumping Paul Giamatti for Matt Dillon), musical score (goodbye "Brokeback," hello "Geisha") and song (now prefers "Pimp" to "Travelin' Through"). Below are Seymour's full predictions, as originally written, followed by his updates in each race.

BEST PICTURE
X - "Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

The only thing that could brake this juggernaut's momentum — and it’s by no means unlikely — is some manner of "Brokeback" fatigue; e.g., people hearing for so long how "great" the movie is and how it can't possibly match the hype and/or heightened expectations after so many months, blah blah blah. Right now, this minute, none of the other nominees has “Brokeback’s” heart-as-big-as-all-outdoors. And, as we've seen repeatedly over the decades, "heart" trumps every other consideration, especially in this category.

(Feb. 25) All the elements of an upset are swirling around this one. “Crash” is bearing down, harder than any movie has on a front-runner in recent memory. But there’s a lot of historical precedent to get by. I’m staying with “Brokeback,” but I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m wrong.

Advocates of conservative "family values" suddenly have reason to love gay cowboys. Among the five films up for Oscar's best picture prize, "Brokeback Mountain" looks rather tame when judged by FamilyMediaGuide.com, which grades movies, video games and TV shows based upon how much profanity, sex, violence and cigarette smoking they contain.

"Crash" features the most swear words — 182 compared to 92 for "Brokeback." If it wins the top Oscar, "Crash" will be the third most profane best pic ever, behind "Platoon" (329 cuss words) and "The Deer Hunter" (208).

"Munich" is the most violent among this year's best pic crop. "Good Night, and Good Luck" features the most cigarette smoking. "Brokeback" has the highest sexual content, but "Crash" comes close, although all five nominees contain 45% less sexual content than last year's top contenders.

This year FamilyMediaGuide.com discovered a 31% decline in profanity and a 65% jump in violence.

Photo: "Munich" is the most violent of the best picture nominees, scoring 107 compared to 1 by "Good Night, and Good Luck."
(Universal Pictures)

Now let's consider what's happened at the recent guild awards that didn't change their usual schedule because of the Olympics: the "crafts."

No big surprise that "Memoirs of a Geisha" won a prize from the Costume Designers Guild over the weekend. It was the front-runner, so that victory means previous Academy Award winner Colleen Atwood ("Chicago") probably has another Oscar sewn up.

"Geisha" also nabbed a trophy from the American Society of Cinematographers, but don't expect that guild honor to match up with Oscar. The ASC victor was decided by peers. The Oscar is determined by the whole motion picture academy. Thus hairdressers and makeup artists vote in this race and they usually equate great cinematography with big, wide, epic scope. Best picture winners that are full of grand visual sweep almost always take the cinematography prize too — like "Titanic," "The English Patient" and "Braveheart." There are exceptions like "Gradiator" being beat by "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," but they are rare. Therefore, bet on "Brokeback Mountain" triumphing this year for its focus on sprawling mountain landscapes.

At the guild kudos for film editors, the ACE Eddie Awards went to "Crash" (drama) and "Walk the Line" (musical/comedy). Considering "Crash" rookie Hughes Winborne beat respected "Munich" veteran Michael Kahn among industry peers, that probably means "Crash" will prevail when all three collide at the Oscars where "Brokeback" isn't nommed and those hairdressers and makeup artists are voting in the race too. Kahn won his last two Oscar bouts ("Saving Private Ryan," "Schindler's List"), but now his luck will probably run out.

The victory of "King Kong" at the Visual Effects Society means that the monster monkey will surely put its big furry fist around an Oscar next.

When supporting actor Oscar nominee Matt Dillon joined us for a chat session on Sunday morning, Feb. 26, he revealed what he believes triggers the passionate response many moviegoers feel for best picture nominee, "Crash."

"Once you get beyond the surface and go deeper into the film, the themes are universal," he told our forums posters. "And a wide range of people are able to identify with the characters on the screen. And for me, what's been interesting is that some people have responded as much to the loving son as to the racist cop."

He also opened up about some award snubs. "In terms of the Oscars, some of my favorite films of the year haven't been nominated" for best picture, he griped, citing "The New World," "The Constant Gardener" and "King Kong."

Matt Dillon: Hello, I'm here.
Tom O'Neil: Hi Matt -- Thanks for joining us to dish "Crash"!
monkaholic: hey Matt!!
Mr. Beethoven: Greetings Matt.
Tome6: congrats Matt Great job
Atypical: Congratulations on your first Oscar nomination Matt!
Tom O'Neil: Why did you agree to take on such a villainous role as a racist cop?
Matt Dillon: I liked the polarity of the character. Here we had this cop who's clearly a racist with a chip on his shoulder, who then lovingly takes care of his dying father. You don't typically see these layers explored and that type of character.

Photo: "I couldn't look at my character just as a racist cop," Dillon says. "I had to find the humanity in the character, who he really was."
(Lionsgate)

It's no surprise to learn that in Hollywood, size matters. The motto applies in several curious ways to how winners are often chosen in the Oscar best picture race.

First, running time: the longest movie among the five nominees wins about half of the races. This year "Munich" has the most minutes (164), followed by "Brokeback Mountain" (134), "Crash" (113), "Capote" (98) and "Good Night, and Good Luck" (93).

Second, nominations: the movie with the most usually wins — as it has 17 times in the past 20 years. This year "Brokeback" leads with eight.

Third, epic perspective: voters love grand, sprawling landscapes and vast historic pageants played out on wide screens. Thus it should feel and look big, like "Titanic," "Gladiator," "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" or "Lawrence of Arabia."

Fourth: box office: winners should be financially successful, having the potential to reap $100 million at U.S. cinemas. Among the five current best picture nominees, "Brokeback" is the only one that has a realistic shot at that target. Currently, it's at $72 million domestically; $111 million globally.

Prior to his recent PR problems, it seemed odd that Tom Cruise had never won an Oscar, especially considering the strong chances he was given by oddsmakers for "Born on the Fourth of July" and "Magnolia." The most cynical Oscarologists chalked his losses up to the Slap the Stud Syndrome. The theory goes that most academy voters are jealous old geezers who prefer young lovelies in the actress categories, but cruelly seem to tell Hollywood heartthrobs, "OK, you guys already have it all, frankly — fortune, fame, dames galore and big homes in Beverly Hills. We've gotta draw the line someplace. Sorry, pal, you just can't have that Oscar — yet."

It's not as though studs are denied the honor forever. Sometimes they can catch up with it later in their careers, like Al Pacino did for "Scent of a Woman," but by the time voters caught up with Paul Newman, he didn't care anymore. Even though he was widely favored to win best actor for the 1986 film, "The Color of Money," he skipped the ceremony. At that point he'd lost seven times. He was tied with Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole as Oscar's biggest loser. Disgusted by the whole game, Newman told the Associated Press that his pursuit of the statuette had been "like chasing a beautiful woman for 80 years. Finally, she relents and you say, 'I am terribly sorry. I'm tired.'"

Maybe the Slap the Stud theory is what's behind the widespread assumption that Heath Ledger, Jake Gyllenhaal and Joaquin Phoenix won't win this year. While many handsome chaps like Denzel Washington, Jamie Foxx and Adrien Brody have claimed Academy Awards for acting, they've tended to be the sort of guys who aren't regarded as pin-up boys like Cruise, Ledger and Newman. Nonetheless, there are exceptions to the rule — like Russell Crowe, Marlon Brando and Clark Gable.

However, lots of studs have been slapped through the years, never winning Oscars for acting: Alec Baldwin, Javier Bardem, Warren Beatty, Charles Boyer, Montgomery Clift, James Dean, Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Kirk Douglas, Clint Eastwood, Ralph Fiennes, Albert Finney, Peter Fonda, Harrison Ford, Cary Grant, Rock Hudson, Jude Law, Marcello Mastroianni, Steve McQueen, Robert Mitchum, Bill Murray, Nick Nolte, Brad Pitt, Robert Redford, Burt Reynolds, Will Smith and John Travolta.

Photo: Many film critics consider Paul Newman's Oscar-winning performance opposite Tom Cruise in "The Color of Money" to be one of his lesser artistic achievements.
(Touchstone Pictures)

Cheer up, Heath Ledger, Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Williams. Oscar oddsmakers may not rank you as front-runners to win on March 5, but, historically speaking, the odds actually are quite good that at least one of you will strike academy gold if "Brokeback Mountain" is named best picture.

Voting trends reveal that academy members want to give acting awards to the film that claims the top prize, probably because the largest voting bloc within the academy is comprised of actors (1,500 out of 5,800 members). In the past 15 years, 10 best pictures also reaped acting kudos: "Million Dollar Baby" (Hilary Swank, Morgan Freeman), "Chicago" (Catherine Zeta-Jones), "A Beautiful Mind" (Jennifer Connelly), "Gladiator" (Russell Crowe), "American Beauty" (Kevin Spacey), "Shakespeare in Love" (Gwyneth Paltrow, Judi Dench), "The English Patient" (Juliette Binoche), "Forrest Gump" (Tom Hanks), "Unforgiven" (Gene Hackman) and "The Silence of the Lambs" (Anthony Hopkins, Jodie Foster).

Of the remaining five winners, two didn't have acting nominations: "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" and "Braveheart." "Schindler's List's" Ralph Fiennes was expected to win, but Tommy Lee Jones ("The Fugitive") walked away with the award. Gloria Stuart might have won for "Titanic" if it hadn't been for The Babe Factor (voters preferred Kim Basinger's role as a prostitute in "L.A. Confidential").

Speaking of The Babe Factor, that might not, come to think of it, have been the reason Juliette Binoche beat Lauren Bacall in 1996, as many Oscarwatchers think. It might have been the Best Pic Takes an Acting Award theory instead — or else a combination of both. The Best Pic Takes an Acting Award theory seems to be a strong factor in Oscar voting. It might have paid off for Russell Crowe when "A Beautiful Mind" claimed the top trophy too, if the hot-headed rascal hadn't gotten all physical with that BAFTA producer.

Photo: Last year's best pic champ "Million Dollar Baby" nabbed acting trophies for two stars — Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman.
(Warner Bros.)

This week's DVD release of "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," contender for best animated picture, reminds us of other Oscar nominees already out on disc — like its chief rival, "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride."

Other titles to nab at the video store: "The Constant Gardener" (up for best supporting actress and screenplay), "Crash" (picture, director, supporting actor, screenplay and more), "Hustle & Flow" (actor, song) and "Junebug" (supporting actress). "North Country" comes out on Feb. 21, "Walk the Line" and "Pride & Prejudice" on Feb. 28.

Right now I'm very busy rounding up early Oscar predictions from our panel of experts so The Envelope can issue racetrack odds. All I'm asking each expert to do is to rank nominees from 1 to 5 in 12 categories, but Gene Seymour of Newsday went to town giving us detailed analysis of each category in extensive text format. So, since he offered these to us so generously, here are his noodlings for your kudos enlightenment and enjoyment.

BEST PICTURE
X - "Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

The only thing that could brake this juggernaut's momentum — and it’s by no means unlikely — is some manner of "Brokeback" fatigue; e.g., people hearing for so long how "great" the movie is and how it can't possibly match the hype and/or heightened expectations after so many months, blah blah blah. Right now, this minute, none of the other nominees has “Brokeback’s” heart-as-big-as-all-outdoors. And, as we've seen repeatedly over the decades, "heart" trumps every