Looks like NBC may put David E. Kelley back in the Emmy game. Now that production is winding down for the final season of "Boston Legal," producer-writer Kelley just got the good news that the peacock net will showcase his next legal drama, a TV genre that's enabled Kelley to strike a mother lode of Emmy gold in the past.
Kelley launched many top Emmy-contending series — "Chicago Hope," "Picket Fences," "Ally McBeal," "Boston Public" and "The Practice" (which successfully morphed into "Boston Legal") — having his most luck with legal dramadies. He was also a producer of "L.A. Law." Four of those programs won eight best-series awards during his watch. That's still an unbroken record: "Ally" (one best-series victory), "Picket" and "Practice" (twice each) and "Law" (three times under his stewardship as producer).
Two of those wins were shockeroos that reign among Emmy's biggest upsets ever. "Picket Fences" shot down "NYPD Blue" in its debut year (1994) when the gritty cop series reaped 26 noms (setting a record that still stands) and "The Practice" bumped off TV's Hottest New Thing — "The Sopranos" — in 1999 when it led with the most bids (16).
Kelley also holds another record: He's been behind the most wins for acting (35) and nominations (106).
Kelley's new series "was pitched to CBS and NBC this month, with both networks responding strongly," says the Hollywood Reporter. "NBC made an aggressive play, landing the show with a pilot order and a multimillion-dollar penalty if the project doesn't go to series.
Yes — yikes — this means I am shimmying out onto a thin, shaky predix limb, I know, but little Emmy birdies tell me that we pundits have made a big mistake underestimating Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") in the race for best drama actor.
Up until recently, I was with my Envelope comrades resting on usually sturdy oak for James Spader ("Boston Legal"). After all, Spader has never lost — he's gone three for three at Emmys past, including last year, and now he gives his most dynamic performance yet in the sample episode he submitted to Emmy judges. "The Court Supreme" is Spader's performance supreme, granted — he's never been better or given a longer or more dramatic courtroom speech than he does chewing out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. Read more about his Emmy chances and history, CLICK HERE.
But I have a hunch that Emmy voters are just as sick of seeing him win as we pundits are, especially after his ungrateful, snarky acceptance speech last year when he claimed his latest statuette with a shrug, saying, "I still have no idea who votes for these things. Or how you even secure a ballot. Uh . . . but thank you."
The battle over best drama actor is a truly dramatic smackdown involving formidable heavyweights. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House, M.D.") have real shots to win, and maybe even Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") too. Perhaps I'm making a big mistake pooh-poohing the prospects of Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). After all, he's an esteemed star of artsy indie films, which appeals to those notorious snobs in the TV academy, and he delivers a pretentious-as-heck talkathon with Dianne Wiest in his episode submission, but it doesn't contain the emotional fireworks we spy elsewhere in this race.
Frame for frame, moment for moment, Cranston delivers the most intense, theatrical performance of all contenders as a science teacher who wigs out and becomes a crystal meth chef upon hearing the news that he's dying of cancer. The episode has a huge "ick" factor. Watching this good father, husband and teacher team up with drug dealers who will sell their poison to innocents is cringe-inducing, especially since he does it sweating, scowling and romping around in his underpants in the desert. But he does it to whip up a quick fortune to leave his family before he croaks, so his motive isn't selfish.
Just look at the YouTube video below. It's the first scene of the pilot episode, which is what he submitted to Emmy judges. He's talking into a video camera, telling his family how much he loves them and why he's doing such terrible things. If that doesn't wow Emmy voters, what will?
Cranston's episode has all three elements that are key to impressing judges: It has wide emotional range, impact (not just one big money scene, but a treasure-packed hour of them) and — most important of all — empathy. That's crucial. Portraying a powerfully empathetic character is how Particia Arquette ("Medium") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") pulled off recent upsets in the lead-actress races. It's impossible not to feel the terror, dread, sadness and doom Cranston's character experiences as he chooses to step into hell before life's end. Read the full episode description HERE.
But Cranston also has a few other pluses. Even though his character allies himself with a thug, he knocks off worse devils in the pilot to "Breaking Bad." The final fight scene is a heart-stopping shockeroo, and it redeems him a bit too. But the other secret ingredient this episode contains is its theme of substance abuse — one that often triggers big award wins in rehab-happy Hollywood. Candice Bergen won many of her five Emmys for episodes dealing with Murphy Brown's alcoholism. Ditto for Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"), even Kirstie Alley ("Cheers"). Just last year Helen Mirren claimed another Emmy as best actress in a TV film as a police detective battling the bottle.
Lastly, Cranston, personally speaking, is endearing and beloved across Hollywood. It's easy to see why in this video chat I had with him and his "Breaking Bad" costar Anna Gunn last weekend on the red carpet outside the Creative Arts Emmys. Watch his reaction when I tell him that he's got a real chance to win. Over the past few weeks I've been hearing more and more positive buzz for his Emmy hopes from inside industry sources, so I'm starting to take his chances seriously. And so should you. With six nominees in this category, a contender, theoretically, may need only 17% of the vote to win.
What I say in this video to Gunn and Cranston is hard to hear because I'm holding the camera several feet away from them while they hold the mike close to themselves. At first I ask them for their reaction to the amazing breakthrough that basic-cable TV shows by AMC ("Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") have had at the Emmys this year. Later in the video I ask Bryan to tell us what his reaction was when he heard that he was nominated for best lead drama actor. Then I inform him that some serious Emmy gurus (like Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly) are picking him to win. Then I ask him if he'll attend this Sunday's ceremony with a prepared acceptance speech — just in case he does win.
Hey, I can't let Ausiello be the only guru to claim this longshot among the pundits in our Emmy pool, can I? (See all predix HERE.) So now I'm (nervously) stepping off of the James Spader bandwagon to pick Cranston for the win too. Below are my revised racetrack odds for this category. To see the full list of racetrack odds, CLICK HERE
BEST DRAMA ACTOR Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1 James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5 Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5 Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1 Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1 Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.
But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.
It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.
TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)
BEST DRAMA SERIES "Boston Legal" "Damages" — Beachum "Dexter" — Huff "House" "Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi "Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
BEST COMEDY SERIES "Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett "Entourage" "The Office" "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett (NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos, Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit" Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters" Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch
BEST REALITY HOST Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett
BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM "The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett "American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch "Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond "Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan "Top Chef"
BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES "The Colbert Report" "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett "Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff "Real Time With Bill Maher" "Saturday Night Live" — Licuria
BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE "Bernard and Doris" — Greppi "Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch "The Memory Keeper's Daughter" "A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett "Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil
OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.
My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.
But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.
To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.
BEST DRAMA SERIES "Mad Men" - 5/4 "Damages" - 7/5 "Lost" - 8/1 "House" - 9/1 "Dexter" - 10/1 "Boston Legal" - 50/1
BEST COMEDY SERIES "30 Rock" - 1/3 "The Office" - 8/5 "Entourage" - 20/1 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1 "Two and a Half Men" - 40/1
BEST DRAMA ACTOR Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1 James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5 Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5 Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1 Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1 Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1 (NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1 Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1 Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2 Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1 Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2
BEST COMEDY ACTOR Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2 Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2 Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1 Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1 Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3 Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2 Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1 Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1
BEST MINISERIES "John Adams" - 1/2 "Cranford" - 7/5 "Tin Man" - 30/1 "The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1
The biggest dramas at the Emmys this year are in the races for drama series and lead actor. Chris "Boomer" Beachum and I cover the series race in a separate podcast chat here at Gold Derby, but now we want elaborate on the post below (click HERE) by discussing this James Spader biz in depth. Boomer and I agree that the undefeated star of "Boston Legal" is out front to win his fourth Emmy but disagree over who's in second place. Boomer says Hugh Laurie ("House"). I say . . . naw, I ain't gonna tell ya. Better that you tune in for the full, fun chat. CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Listen. (Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.)
Expect to hear a lot of groans this Sunday night when "Boston Legal" star James Spader — who's gone undefeated at the Emmys in the past — wins best drama actor for a fourth time.
Yes, brace yourself for one of those bizarre Emmy moments to repeat again. I and Gold Derby 's two other Emmy experts — our forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — all predict Spader will pull off another jaw-dropper. Rob's and Boomer's expanded predix, rankings and analysis are below, but, first, let me offer my own explanation.
Remember how Emmy voting works: Nominees pick a sample episode of their best work and submit it to about 50 to 70 judges, all fellow actors, who watch the DVD screeners at home and rank the contenders.
Spader keeps winning because "Boston Legal" producer David E. Kelley — a whiz at snagging Emmys and a former lawyer in real life — usually gives Spader one of those big, showboating courtroom speeches at the end of his Emmy episode that wins over judge and jury. Including Emmy judges.
This year Spader gives his hottest firebrand speech ever. He gets to argue a case before the U.S. Supreme Court and he uses the occasion to scorch justices for being lackeys of the conservative White House, at one point chastising Clarence Thomas for not paying attention to him as he rants: "Put down that magazine!"
"Who are you people?" Spader roars. "You've transformed this court from being a governmental branch devoted to civil rights and liberties into protector of discrimination, guardian of government, a slave to monied interests and big business and today, hallelujah, you seek to slay a mentally disabled man!"
How can Hollywood lefties resist voting for that?
If Spader actually manages to lose, it's hard to say who'll beat him. All competing episode submissions are superb and, with six nominees in this race, all a contender needs to win, theoretically, is 17% of the vote.
Both Boomer and Rob believe that Hugh Laurie is in second place and that's possible. In the "House's Head" episode of "House" he gives a big flashy turn as he battles temporary amnesia while struggling to recall which fellow passenger he diagnosed with a life-threatening medical problem just prior to a bus crash. I think this episode has a drawback, though. Normally, House is a cranky character — in an appealing way. Here he's downright nasty, a bully. Some voters inevitably will be turned off.
Personally, I would put Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") in second place. His Emmy episode, "The Wheel," isn't, well, as ham-fisted or emotionally flashy as Hugh Laurie's. In fact, Hamm is rather laid back through most of it, but he gets a big crying scene — voters are often suckers for that.
In "The Wheel," hotsy-totsy advertising exec Don Draper (Hamm) suddenly redeems himself for being a sly alley cat when we see him give a slide show to Kodak while advising the company on what to call its new, round slide projector. He makes his pitch while showing them slides of himself with wife and kids during happier days years ago. Seeing these images again makes Draper cry in the dark while he urges the execs to change the name of "The Wheel" to something else that "takes us to a place where we ache to go," he says, tearing up, voice cracking as he shows off old, happy photos of him and his wife. "It's not called 'the wheel.' It's called 'the carousel.' It lets us travel the way a child travels, around and around and back home again — to a place where we know we are loved."
A similar parallel can be drawn to Michael C. Hall's performance — which is also quite passive except for a big grand finale. In Hall's case, the emotional contrast is even more interesting. What makes his acting so seductive is its smoldering volcanic fire. Serial killers don't like to draw attention to themselves so he's always holding back, drawing us near. Very powerful, especially at the end of this "Dexter" episode, "There's Something About Harry," in which he discovers that his father committed suicide when he learned that his son was a murderer. Dexter screams, "I killed my father!" It's the episode where Dexter keeps his nemesis, James Doakes, locked up in a cage out in the Everglades and it's so taut and gripping that it could definitely bring Hall the Emmy.
But Hall not only needs to get by Spader, Laurie and Hamm, but Bryan Cranston and Gabriel Byrne too. I agree with Rob and Boomer that Byrne's turn is just too talky and pretentious. He's out. But Cranston really does have hope here. I think Boomer makes a big mistake ranking him last. In the pilot episode of "Breaking Bad," Cranston is riveting as a science teacher who resorts to making crystal meth to earn a quick fortune when he learns that he's dying of cancer. Cranston has a real chance to win too. Only Byrne is out of this race, methinks.
But let's check in with what Rob and Boomer think. First, Rob.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S RANKING 1. James Spader, "Boston Legal" ("The Court Surpreme") 2. Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("House's Head") 3. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Pilot") 4. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("There's Something About Harry") 5. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Wheel") 6. Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 4")
ROB'S COMMENTARY: The actors I have in third to sixth place should really all be tied for third place. I can't separate them really — they're all that good — and are all in with a shot in this years number-one killer category.
Gabriel Byrne is touching and vulnerable in an episode where the camera is almost entirely focused on him. Bryan Cranston OWNS this character in the pilot of "Breaking Bad," and is so perfect that he is the spoiler. Michael C. Hall is really captivating in his episode, and has lots of buzz to go with it. So does Jon Hamm, the Golden Globe winner from earlier this year, who has the best scene of the category in the "Carousel" presentation towards the end of his episode. Hugh Laurie is wonderful in "House's Head," and everybody knows that he is way overdue for some Emmy recognition.
Now our Emmy gurus and forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" Beachum have a knockabout over who'll win another top Emmy race.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX 1. Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") 2. Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") 3. Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") 4. Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 1") 5. Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming")
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: After watching all of the episodes for this category, I think the clear favorite is Chandra Wilson. She has a heart-tugging plot line with her marital problems and the injury of her son, and the writers really gave her some powerful moments when she wouldn't leave the surgery room and also at the end.
Griffiths and Bergen have great plot lines (child custody and critical father near death, respectively), but I think the writers really let them down. They have extremely quiet performances with barely any moments in their episodes that would show their acting range and win over Emmy voters. Wilson's performance practically screams for a big Emmy hug! Wiest gives an acting workshop in a two-person virtual play, but there are no money scenes and very little range.
I thought Oh's episode was the worst she has submitted over the years and only had her on screen maybe five minutes.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX 1. Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") 2. Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") 3. Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 1") 4. Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") 5. Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming")
ROB'S COMMENTARY: Again, I just don't understand what all the fuss about Chandra Wilson's performance in her chosen episode is all about. Although I see glimpses of past knockout performances from Wilson in "Lay Your Hands on Me," I didn't connect with this performance nearly enough to proclaim it the front-runner.
In Emmy's supporting-acting categories, judges view one sample episode of each contender that is edited down to eliminate scenes that do not feature the nominee. Our Emmy guru Chris "Boomer" Beachum has now viewed all submissions in the drama-actor contest and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) has seen nearly all, so they're ready to do their predix battle.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX 1. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") 2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") 3. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") 4. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker") 5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This is a really, really tight race between William Shatner and Michael Emerson. Both have showcase episodes built around their characters and seize the opportunity with excellent performances. In addition to some nice action scenes, Emerson gets two powerful scenes in his episode (witnessing the murder of his daughter and then a revenge showdown with his nemesis at the end). Shatner is as ham-bone as ever in his episode, but he gets some terrific courtroom scenes that are both comedic and dramatic, plus this is probably his best submission yet in terms of screen time, plot and range.
I am giving the slight edge to Shatner since his episode seems to be a little more accessible to non-viewers of the show and has the viewer pulling for him at the end.
As for the others, Ivanek gave a career-enhancing performance over the course of the season but has zero range in this particular episode with his low-key, depressed character. Danson was also incredibly villainous over the entire season but was barely even in this episode. Slattery brilliantly plays a real cad, but I just can't believe the voters will choose him after seeing his character ride a young woman like a horse. His final scene in the hospital is a real winner, though.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX 1. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People") 2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come") 3. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker") 4. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You") 5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")
ROB'S COMMENTARY: I don't buy that William Shatner is the front-runner in this category. I think that maybe Denny Crane's time in the Emmy spotlight might be over.
While the TV critics bemoaned the lack of recognition for the final season of "The Wire," they were generally pleased with the overall Emmy Awards nominations. It will be interesting to see whether the Television Critics Assn. names "The Wire" as program of the year on Saturday night when they unveil their choices for the tops in TV programming. For now, on to our critics roundup.
Maureen Ryan of the Chicago Tribune says, "All things considered, this is a respectable list. Most in the big categories are worthy of recognition ('Boston Legal' aside), and viewers are not going to have to endure another year of 'Desperate Housewives' or 'Grey's Anatomy' domination . . . . The networks that have been gradually stealing HBO's thunder for the past few years—especially FX, Showtime, AMC and TNT—were the big Emmy winners, and rightly so; They've been offering a variety of intriguing programs while HBO stumbles in its post-'Sopranos' era."
Says Matt Roush of TV Guide, "Let’s hail the Emmy voters for recognizing the creative rebirth of 'Lost' this season, which had fallen off the list since winning best drama for its first season. And what a pleasant shock to see the Emmys embrace (only a year late) the twisted brilliance of 'Dexter' in its second year for coming into its own with plotting that never stopped. Of the three cable dramas vying for the Emmy, 'Dexter' was a much bigger surprise for me than the success of 'Mad Men' and 'Damages,' which despite not airing on pay cable have the look and feel of first-class blue-chip entertainment." Matt theorizes that the snubs of "The Wire" and "Friday Night Lights" is due to the fact that, "Emmy voters must somehow think these shows are documentaries, not dramas. And because they take place on those strange, obscure planets of Texas and Baltimore, the Hollywood contingent simply can’t be bothered. God forbid they’d favor either of these shows over the cartoonish pandering of 'Boston Legal.' "
For Robert Bianco of USA Today , "It would have been nice to see 'Pushing Daisies' get a comedy nod, but it's possible the show was hurt by its truncated season, and it did pick up nominations for Lee Pace and Kristen Chenoweth. Far less excusable are the snubs for 'The Big Bang Theory,' 'Ken Burns,' 'The War,' '30 Rock's' Jack McBrayer and 'A Raisin in the Sun's' Sean Combs."
David Zurawik of the Baltimore Sun thinks, "The Emmy category of best dramatic actor typifies the shift of quality shows to cable that was underscored by yesterday's nominations. ... All of the best miniseries nominees aired on cable except for 'Cranford,' an English drama that was on PBS. All of the nominated made-for-TV movies also aired on cable, except for ABC's 'A Raisin in the Sun.' The best actor and actress nominees in movies and miniseries are even more striking. All five men are from cable productions, as are four of the five female nominees."
And for Tim Goodman of the San Francisco Chronicle, "While it's easy to target the missteps made by Emmy voters, they deserve credit for more inclusion this year, particularly in the cable ranks. Though there are the nominations that seem rote — all things 'Boston Legal,' 'Two and a Half Men' — there's a dramatic reduction in the rubber-stamping of previous nominees that had been the worst trait of lazy Emmy voters."
Even with six men in the race for lead actor in a drama series, their award track record pales in comparison to their female counterparts. Among these half dozen contenders, they have just nine Emmy nominations before today with only three wins –- and all of those belong to James Spader, who has never lost an Emmy race for "Boston Legal" and its predecessor "The Practice." (The women have 28 previous Emmy nominations and 7 wins.)
Among those Spader bested in 2005 and 2007 was Hugh Laurie for "House." While this is Michael C. Hall's first nomination for "Dexter," he was a 2002 lead actor nominee for "Six Feet Under." And though this nod for "Breaking Bad" is Bryan Cranston's first drama bid, he was a three-time supporting nominee for the laffer "Malcolm in the Middle" (2002, 2003, 2006). New to the Emmys are Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") and Jon Hamm ("Mad Men").
While the women have 3 Oscars and 11 Oscar nominations among them, the men have none. The women have 3 Golden Globes for 13 movie nods as well as 4 Globes to show for 18 TV noms. The men have no movie Globe nominations and 3 TV Globes out of 8 nods. Laurie won 2 of his 3 Golden Globe bids for "House" and was bested this year by first-time Globe nominee Hamm for "Mad Men." Hall has lost both his Globe bids for "Dexter" (2007, 2008). Cranston lost his single Globe nom for "Malcolm in the Middle" in 2003 and Spader lost his only nod for "Boston Legal" in 2005.
You can bet that there was wild cheering at ABC offices today when "Lost" was on the list for best drama series when Emmy nominations were announced. The fact that "Lost" didn't nab that nom in 2006 after it won best drama the year before caused an uproar so severe that the Emmys made a dubious, dangerous change in its voting process.
Serialized dramas have a special problem at the Emmy Awards whenever the voting process involves judges who must view video samples. If those judges don't know the back stories of these serialized shows, they can be, literally, lost. So producers of serialized shows usually make a special effort to submit episode samples that have a largely self-contained plot and they've managed to win best series as a result — like "24," "The Sopranos," even "Lost."
But soon after winning, "Lost" producers forgot the magic formula and goofed big time in 2006 when the Emmys launched a new voting process that introduced video judging to the process of determining nominees, which previously were decided solely by an outright popular vote of academy members. A popular vote was still conducted in 2006, but the 10 programs that got the most votes were subjected to one new, additional round of balloting. They had to submit one sample episode to judging panels, which picked the final five nominees.
"Lost" submitted the head-scratching "Man of Science, Man of Faith," which makes no sense to nonviewers of the series, so the show got skunked. TV critics of America rose up in revolt, hurling their usual weapons of mass destruction at the TV academy while denouncing its chiefs as morons. But it wasn't really the chiefs' fault. Had "Lost" producers submitted the Tailies episode, which TV Guide called its best of that season, the show probably would've been nominated again and may even have won.
But no Emmy-watchers pinned the blame where it belonged that year. As usual, they just heaped ridicule unfairly on Emmy chiefs, who were battle-weary and sore from all of the pummeling they always get from TV critics who don't pay attention to the complicated voting process and don't care. Unable to take any more abuse, the chiefs buckled and decided to make the process of participating in the Emmys idiot-proof. They brought in the accountants and cooked up a new mathematical formula that reduced the importance of the judging-panel scores by half, then mixed them on a 50/50 basis with results of the original popular vote. This way they figured that a program as popular as "Lost" could still get nominated even if producers screwed up again with episode submission.
But "Lost" didn't get nominated in 2007 even though it was still hugely popular with TV audiences and TV critics. There was no outcry, though, probably because the same thing had happened the year before — so no big deal. Overall, in fact, there wasn't much kvetching across the industry in response to last year's list of nominees, so ATAS chairman Dick Askin decreed the new, hybrid form of Emmy voting a great success and so perfect that there's no need in the future to tinker any more with the process. As they say in Hollywood, it's a wrap.
Oh, yeah? Askin's wrong. While it's nice to see "Lost" — deservedly — back this year (even though it got snubbed in the writing and directing categories), the whole point of creating these judging panels to determine nominees is compromised. The popular vote was supposed to matter only on the first round, then all semifinalists were supposed to have an equal, fair chance to win. Thus "The Wire," for example, once it made the top 10 this year, should've had its big chance to be nominated for — and win — best drama series. But "The Wire" had relatively low ratings on HBO, so it probably was down near the bottom of the Top 10 vote. To get nominated and compensate for the hybrid 50/50 voting process that hikes the influence of the popular vote, "The Wire" would've needed to . . .
Somehow I've managed to coax six suckers brilliant kudos seers to join me in predicting the Emmy nominations that will be announced this Thursday morning: Michael Ausiello (EW.com), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus — our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria(AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. To see how we fared predicting the Emmy top 10 lists, CLICK HERE! Below: how we size up the races for best drama and comedy series. To see our predix for best lead actor and actress, CLICK HERE!
Were some shocking omissions from the Emmy top 10 lists due to the lack of a photo next to their names on the official eligibility lists (SEE HERE) that voters used as a reminder of contenders when checking off ballots? One of the most notable snubbees tells Gold Derby, "Yes!" and blames the TV academy.
The lists appeared online and did not include pix of these stars who got snubbed: Calista Flockhart ("Brothers & Sisters"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Kelsey Grammer ("Back to You"), Ellen Pompeo ("Grey's Anatomy") and Kate Walsh ("Private Practice"). flockhart, Fox and Pompeo made the Top 10 lists last year. Grammer and Walsh weren't eligible in this category.
Many other stars didn't have their photos posted when voting began, but scrambled to provide them and they were added later. The rep of one snubbed star claims the academy's request for a photo was not included on the entry form, but "buried" in supplemental material. The TV academy denies that. Whatever the case, there were lots of photos missing on the ballot and that might have affected the outcome.
On the first day of voting an academy member called me as he looked over the lists, which had lots and lots of missing pix at that early point. He harrumped in a very catty voice, "I don't see a photo of Matthew Fox! He lost my vote! Hey, what's up with Ellen Pompeo? Too lazy to bother, honey? Well, screw you â I'm voting for Jeanne Tripplehorn!" Clearly, that voter was putting on an exaggerated act for comic effect, but there was obvious truth to his tantrum. When looking over those loooooong lists, your eye obviously goes to ones with photos.
Although that didn't hurt some big-name contenders. None of these stars posted pix, but they made the top 10 runoffs: Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy"), James Spader ("Boston Legal"), Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), and Eva Longoria("Desperate Housewives").
A rep for one of the snubbed stars cited above insists, "There was no mention of the requirement of a photo on the two-page entry form, although that form does mention the need for contenders to submit a DVD, episode info, payments, etc. â in other words, most other key details. The photo requirement is buried on page 40 of the 69-page rules book."
When I asked the TV academy for a response, a spokesman said: "In the instructions included with the entry form: 'Performer Awards (Unless otherwise specified below, DVDs and Headshots are due at the time of entry. Please refer to the rules and procedures for specific instructions.' When the producers proofs were sent out for final ballot adjustments, entrants without headshots were noted and requests were made for the photos.
Looks like our Emmy prophets agree on four of the five slots for supporting actress in a drama series: Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal"), Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers and Sisters"), Rose Byrne ("Damages") and Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy"). But one goes for Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy") in fifth slot, the other for Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment").
Below: Our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria.
Rob and Boomer mirror the actual voting process when making their predix. First, they calculate the order of the top 11 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch. Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries. They combine these results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees. Lowest numbers rank highest.
Here's how Rob thinks these rivals fared in the popular vote: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Candice Bergen. 3) Chandra Wilson. 4) Sandra Oh. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 6) Dianne Wiest. 7) Christine Hendricks. 8) Jill Clayburgh. 9) S. Epatha Merkerson. 10) Sharon Gless. 11) Jane Alexander.
Here's how Boomer thinks these rivals fared in the popular vote: 1) Candice Bergen. 2) Chandra Wilson. 3) Rose Byrne. 4) Sandra Oh. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 6) Christina Hendricks. 7) Dianne Wiest. 8) Jill Clayburgh 9) S. Epatha Merkerson. 10) Jane Alexander. 11) Sharon Gless.
My opinion: Rob and Boomer rank Rose Byrne too high. Come on, she's a little-known actress in a TV show that aired last summer, for cryin' out loud. She's gonna pull higher than Sandra Oh and, according to Rob, Emmy queen Candy Bergen? Memo to Rob: Put down the pint of frothy ale, mate.
Here's how Rob thinks voters ranked episode samples after viewing: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Chandra Wilson. 3) Candice Bergen. 4) Christina Hendricks. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 5) Sandra Oh. 6) Sharon Gless. 7) Dianne Wiest. 8) Jill Clayburgh. 9) Jane Alexander. 10) S. Epatha Merkerson.
Here's how Boomer thinks voters ranked episode samples after viewing: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Rachel Griffiths. 3) Dianne Wiest. 4) Chandra Wilson. 5) Jane Alexander. 6) Jill Clayburgh. 7) Candice Bergen. 8) Sandra Oh. 9) Christina Hendricks. 10) Sharon Gless. 11) S. Epatha Merkerson.
My opinion: Yes, Byrne will rank high once voters see her "Damages" eppy. I think Boomer got a bit carried away with Griffiths and Rob with Hendricks.
Below: Predix that include the titles of sample episodes viewed by judges. I think Boomer's off in one forecast: He doesn't have Sandra Oh in his top five. Oh, Wilson and Griffiths were nominated last year and probably will be back. Last year Candy Bergen took her name out of competition, but when she does choose to compete, the five-time champ (and daughter of the academy's founding president) always makes it in. That means, if my analysis is correct, we have only one slot open, which must go to the star-blazing newcomer of the TV year — Rose Byrne, who, arguably, could've competed in the lead race but was smart enough not to take on Glenn Close off screen too. No doubt their on-screen clashes are weary enough.
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX (Top 5 = nominees) 1) Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Because I Know Patty") -- 2 points 2) Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") -- 5 points 2) Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") -- 5 points 4) Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") -- 10 points 4) Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming") -- 10 points 6) Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" ("Babylon") -- 11 points 7) Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul & Gina: Week ??") -- 14 points 8) Jill Clayburgh, "Dirty Sexy Money" ("The Watch") -- 17 points 8) Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice" ("Identity") -- 17 points 10) S. Epatha Merkerson, "Law & Order" ("Bottomless") -- 20 points 11) Jane Alexander, "Tell Me You Love Me" ("Episode 10") -- 21 points
BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX (Top 5 = nominees) 1) Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Because I Know Patty") -- 4 points 2) Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") -- 6 points 3) Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") -- 7 points 4) Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") -- 8 points 5) Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul & Gina: Week ??") -- 10 points 6) Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming") -- 12 points 7) Jill Clayburgh, "Dirty Sexy Money" ("The Watch") -- 14 points 8) Jane Alexander, "Tell Me You Love Me" ("Episode 10") -- 15 points 8) Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" ("Babylon") -- 15 points 10) S. Epatha Merkerson, "Law & Order" ("Bottomless") -- 20 points 11) Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice" ("Identity") -- 21 points
Rob's commentary: I'm confident about my top four predix. Oh is the best bet for the fifth spot, but Hendricks will probably score a strong panel vote (great performance) and Weist score a strong popular vote (name recognition), thus putting those two in contention. Bergen is a sure thing, and I think that, given the obvious love for "Damages," Byrne is safe as well.
Below is the breakdown of the Emmy slugfest for best supporting drama actor, according to our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net — read Hollywood Reporter's profile of Rob).
Remember: Rob and Boomer mirror the actual voting process when making their predix. First, they calculate the order of the top 11 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch. Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries. They combine these two results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees.
For example, Rob thinks Ted Danson will come in first in the popular vote and fourth in the scores judging sample episode submissions. Add those numbers together: five. That's excellent. Lowest scores rank highest.
How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Ted Danson 2.) William Shatner 3.) Michael Emerson 4.) John Slattery 5.) Blair Underwood 6.) Zeljko Ivanek 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Christian Clemenson 9.) T.R. Knight 10.) Jake Weber 11.) Bruce Dern
Here's how Boomer thinks the pop vote went down — 1.) Ted Danson 2.) William Shatner 3.) T.R. Knight 4.) Michael Emerson 5.) John Slattery 6.) Blair Underwood 7.) Naveen Andrews 8.) Zeljko Ivanek 9.) Christian Clemenson 1
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