Basically, I think Emmys are going to make like a TV repeat this year and bring back last year's winners in all top series races: best drama ("Mad Men"), lead drama actor (Bryan Cranston, "Breaking  Bad"), lead drama actress (Glenn Close, "Damages"), best comedy ("30 Rock"), lead actor (Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"), lead actress (Tina Fey, "30 Rock"). Here is my full list of predictions, which you should compare with those of other experts pooled by Gold Derby.

Believe it or not, such mass repetition has never happened — all of the top champs returning, that is. It may seem like Emmy winners get rubber-stamped all the time and they often do, but not en masse like that.

What could the upsets be? Bryan Cranston faces a serious challenge from Gabriel Byrne, who gave Emmy judges a powerful episode of "In Treatment" — ("Gina, Week 4") — in which his character has a gripping scene at his father's death bed. "In Treatment" has two drawbacks, though: It's only half the length, time-wise, as rival nominees (size matters in Hollywood) and its characters are excruciatingly whiny, preachy and self-absorbed. However, Dianne Wiest pulled off an upset victory for supporting actress in the series last year.

Cranston also has gripping dramatics in his episode, too — "Phoenix" — read a full description here. Specifically touching is a scene in which he shows his infant daughter the illicit fortune he's stashed away for the well-being of his family's future. Click here to watch a video of Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and I discuss the nuances of this cliffhanger category race.

Locked up are wins for best series ("Mad Men," "30 Rock") and Glenn Close as actress. There are chances of upsets on the comedy side, all because of a fluke factor of multiple personalities as a voting plus.

For some crazy reason, those notoriously nutty Hollywooders love to reward actors who portray split personalities — as if they're getting multiple performances for the price of one vote. Perhaps the biggest upset in Emmy history was pulled off by Lindsay Wagner as best drama actress — yes, drama actress — in 1977 for the laughably featherweight "Bionic Woman." She did so by giving Emmy judges an episode in which she portrayed good and evil twin takes on her character. Just last year Cynthia Nixon won an Emmy in the guest categories for portraying dual roles on "Law & Order: SVU." At the Daytime Emmys, Erika Slezak of "One Life to Live" won her fourth and fifth awards in 1994-95 and 1995-96, respectively, for acting out six personalities, one of them a 10-year-old boy. At the Oscars, think Joanne Woodward ("Three Faces of Eve") and Fredric March ("Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde").

In the race for best comedy actress, there are two contenders who challenge incumbent champ Tina Fey with multiple roles: Christina Applegate (good and evil turns of the same role in "Samantha Who?") and Toni Collette (four personalities in "United States of Tara"). However, Tina Fey gives a strong, sensitive performance in her episode submission, "Reunion," which reveals she once had a very different side to her adult personality. While attending her high-school reunion, she's shocked to discover that she was once considered to be a mean girl in her peers. (Fey, in real life, is the author and star of the hit film "Mean Girls" — get the inside joke? Will Emmy voters? They're members of the acting branch, which means they can be pretty dim.)

Last year's best comedy actor, Alec Baldwin, now has the split-personalities factor in his favor as he portrays, in "Generalissimo," both his usual role as sinister corporate suit plus an actor who portrays an army general on a Spanish TV soap opera. Baldwin does face some tough competition, though. He's up against Steve Carell ("The Office"), who's overdue to win and gave Emmy judges a sympathetic episode (for a change), titled "Broke." Usually, his character is too creepy or unlikable for voters to want to hug.

"Mad Men's" top victory last year was historic. Never before in Emmy history had a basic cable show won best series, either drama or comedy. Was it a fluke? Or are TV academy voters still crazy about "Mad Men" now? Our Emmy gurus/ forum moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) believe it will prevail easily and explain why below. Also read their expanded, insightful views on these categories; best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead drama actor, lead drama actress, lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. See Boomer, Rob and I battle over  which shows may win best comedy series in our video slugfest here. See a chart of predix by top journalists here. Read more predix in our forums.

Watch our video smackdowns covering these races: best drama actor, lead drama actress and best comedy series.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.  "Mad Men"
2.  "Lost"
3.  "Breaking Bad"
4.  "House"
5.  "Damages"
6.  "Dexter"
7.  "Big Love"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This category really doesn't need a ton of discussion. I think "Mad Men" is so far out in front that nothing can possibly catch it.  The show completely dominated the writing category and has a very good shot at winning directing as well.

Personally, I thought "Lost" and "Mad Men" were virtually tied in terms of quality this past season (and degree of difficulty in their complex structures). However, that very hard-to-follow structure of "Lost" makes it almost impossible for non-regular viewers to even know what is happening. Having won this category before, it certainly has a slim chance at a win.

AMC also has a very devoted following for "Breaking Bad," so a win by that show is not out of the question.  I think the lack of a directing or writing nomination might signify less respect within the academy.

Of the other nominees, "House," "Damages" and "Dexter" were all in the running for this prize last year, but I don't believe they are strong contenders for an actual win.  The producers, cast and crew of "Big Love" should be very proud of this slot, because it is their only Emmy nomination this year.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. "Mad Men"
2. "Breaking Bad"
3. "Big Love"
4. "Lost"
5. "Damages"
6. "Dexter"
7. "House"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: "Mad Men" is going to win this category. It seems to be an almost certainty. There really is nothing else like this show on TV, and, with the most Emmy nominations and the near-reverence that critics, fans and industry appear to have for the show, it looks unstoppable.

Our Emmy sages Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria agree on who'll win most top races, but not this one. Boomer picks last year's champ Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") to repeat his victory as best drama actor while Rob insists the champ will be Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). What about other nominees, like Golden Globe champs Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") and Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), you wonder? Watch these guys come out swinging hard with all the tough answers, then check out our video slugfests over who'll triumph as best drama actress and best comedy series. and lead comedy actor.

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Here's our first batch of predictions pooled from some of the top Emmy journos: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Maggie Furlong (AOL) and Ray Richmond (just some guy). Below, a sampling of their predix. More to come soon.

For more in-depth noodling of top Emmy races, click on these links to analysis by our resident gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) sizing up these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead drama actor, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

The Emmy slugfest over best drama actor is a true heavyweight bout. There are three key players — Hugh Laurie ("House M.D."), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") and Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") — according to our pundits Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net).

Also check out Rob's and Boomer's (often clashing) predix in these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
2.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
3.  Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("Under My Skin")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")
6.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The drama categories are usually quite difficult to predict, generally because there are usually at least 10 to 15 amazing performances that are in the running for these coveted spots, that, depending on the episode submission, could all be contenders for an Emmy win. This is never more the case than what is typically one of the hottest categories year in year out -- drama lead actor. This year is no exception.

Michael C. Hall plays Dexter as a serial killer with a heart of gold, protecting his girlfriend’s children from a sex offender does make his character more likeable and perhaps less of the, let’s face it, monster that he inherently is. Although he is reliably great in this episode, you can't help but feel that because he is up against such fierce competition, this relatively low-key performance will probably not be enough to propel him over the edge.

Having never seen "The Mentalist" before, I was a little skeptical that this nomination was a bit bogus. However, I was won over by Baker's undeniable appeal in a show that is more entertaining than I initially gave it credit for. That being said, he does come across as a bit of a lightweight in comparison to some of the other heavy hitters in this group. I suspect that a nomination might be enough of a reward for the category rookie this year.

Jon Hamm is the center of gravity on what is probably the best and most lauded show on TV right now. Although very subtle and understated in his performances, he is magnetic when he is on the screen, and is probably not given enough credit for the control he displays in his portrayal of Don Draper. He has enough screen time to warrant at least a small shot at the win, but his overall impact left me wanting a bit more before I could crown him a front-runner in this race.

I suspect that the guys in the top-three group have the best chance at winning. It is no coincidence that all three are given the most do to, tend to show more range, and definitely make more of an impact. Hugh Laurie starts off low-key in his episode, but by the end of it he perfectly portrays the physical and mental suffering of an ill Dr. House. Many voters may also keep in mind that Hugh Laurie is way overdue for an Emmy win, and this year might be the perfect time to do so.

Bryan Cranston is superb in "Breaking Bad." Coming off a win last year, he could easily repeat with this performance, which is mostly understated, with Walt's pain and rage barely noticeable as it bubbles under the surface. And then we get two key scenes that almost seal the deal. The tender, touching scene where he proudly shows his newborn daughter the stash of cash he has hidden for her future is a real winner. And of course, the climactic scene where he stands, frozen, over Jane choking and spluttering to her death while Jesse sleeps next to her in a drug haze. Amazing stuff.

But then I watched Gabriel Byrne’s episode. Although the episode runtime is under 30 minutes, Byrne is practically in every frame, front and center. It's very much like a play, with a huge spotlight on him, where he gets to play against one of the greats in Dianne Weist. There’s anger, frustration, and then the dynamite scene at the end of the episode where he cries over the deathbed of his estranged father. It really is the perfect Emmy submission, and had me in tears. The question here is whether voters can be bothered voting for a show that appears to be dead and buried, and definitely lacks the buzz of those actors in best drama series contenders "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men" and "House."

I am very tempted to go with Bryan Cranston, but have decided to go out on a tiny limb for Gabriel Byrne.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
2.  Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Under My Skin")
3.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")
6.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  For this category, let's start at the bottom of the rankings and work forward. I was incredibly entertained by Simon Baker in his new, highly rated show and am very happy for his nomination. He gives a star-type performance, but it certainly is a quiet one with very little emotion or range (at least in this pilot episode). It even made me want to see the rest of the first season to find out what happens. I don't think he has a prayer of winning with this type of episode, however. 

The episode choice by Michael C. Hall is a strange one since I also didn't think his character had any emotional range (previous selections gave him a much better chance at winning for both "Dexter" and "Six Feet Under"). Jon Hamm portrays one of my favorite characters on television, and his choice of episodes was certainly the best he had available from the second season. Unfortunately, the subdued, extremely private, non-emotional nature of his character doesn't provide much for the Emmy voter to chew over (unless they watch the show regularly and want to reward him as part of a "Mad Men" sweep).

Never in Emmy history have all of the top series champs of one year (best comedy and drama series, plus lead actor and actress) returned the next to strike gold again, but it's starting to look like it may happen on Sept. 20.

Many of Gold Derby's top experts — who view the same sample episodes submitted by nominees to Emmy judges — say that the new front-runners are last year's champs: "Mad Men" (best drama series), "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston (lead actor), "Damages'" Glenn Close (lead actress), "30 Rock" (comedy series), "30 Rock's" Alec Baldwin (lead actor) and "30 Rock's" Tina Fey (lead actress).

Possible upsets: Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") or Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") might crush Cranston, Steve Carell ("The Office") could humble Baldwin and Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") may trounce Tina Fey. Otherwise, the outcomes of these Emmy races seem pretty much set, according to our kudos prophets. Over the next few weeks, we'll be spotlighting their predix in more detail.

The closest the Emmys came to repeating in the past occurred in 1968 when all of the victorious lead actors in drama and comedy series returned from 1967: Bill Cosby ("I Spy"), Barbara Bain ("Mission: Impossible"), Don Adams ("Get Smart"), and Lucille Ball ("The Lucy Show"). "Mission: Impossible" won best drama series both years, but there were different winners of best comedy. "The Monkees" won in 1967, "Get Smart" in 1968.

Why would it be bad for last year's Emmy champs to repeat? (Why did I put "Uh, oh!" in the headline?) Actually, it wouldn't be terrible from the point of view of justice. Our spies viewing the nominees' episodes tell us that it seems like last year's victors deserve to prevail again. But the TV critics of America don't care about that. Historically, they've demanded that the Emmys reward new, cool faves and, if they dare to bore them with refried beans, they'll hurl their sloppy plates at them with a fury. Remember, I've written the definitive book on these kudos' history ("The Emmys," Penguin Putnam/ Perigee). I can tell you that's how it always plays out whenever there's too much overlap from year to year.

It shouldn't matter what TV critics think. They don't bother to watch the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges. They don't even bother to investigate what episodes were submitted. They don't care. But that doesn't stop them from mouthing huffy condemnations of the Emmys. That's the equivalent of film critics lambasting the Oscars without bothering to see the movies. Thus their opinions are almost worthless, as far as I'm concerned.

Wow! Members of the Television Critics Assn. actually put their awards where their big mouths are! Finally, the TCA Awards recognized "Battlestar Galactica" after voters beat the beans out of the Emmys for failing to give the show any major awards in the past.

Can this mean a break from the TCA Awards' hypocrisy? In years past, voters whined, fumed and harrumphed about the Emmys failing to recognize "The Wire" and "Buffy the Vampire Slayer," then they snubbed them too. TCA members never gave those shows real prizes — just handed them that bogus "Heritage Award" after they went off the air and failed to win best drama series or program of the year.

"Battlestar Galactica" didn't win a significant TCA Award in the past and now finally reaped one after sailing off the airwaves, but at least it's fared better than other great TV series cruelly snubbed by TCA and the television academy. And while TCA voters skunked vampires back in Buffy's heyday, they did just hail HBO's walking dead by giving "True Blood" their prize as best new program. TV academy members recently drove a stake through "True Blood's" Emmy hopes by snubbing it in all top categories, including best drama actress, which was a major surprise considering Anna Paquin is a past Oscar winner ("The Piano") and Emmy nominee ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee").

But don't get too excited about the TCA Awards mending their old, harsh kudos biases. As usual, women just got snubbed in the performance categories. This year, those awards went to Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") and Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") at the expense of Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Glenn Close ("Damages"), the only women nominated this year. That's typical.

Sometimes TCA kindly permits a token female to get an honorary career achievement award. This year, that lucky (and deserving) gal was Betty White.

Below, a full list of winners:

PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
"Battlestar Galactica"

NEW PROGRAM
"True Blood"

DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men"

COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"

NOMINEES FOR BEST DRAMA
"Big Love" — "Prom Queen" and "On Trial"; "Come Ye Saints" and "Fight or Flight"; "Outer Darkness" and "Sacrament"
"Breaking Bad" — "Grilled," "Peekaboo," "Better Call Saul," "4 Days Out," "Phoenix," "ABQ"
"Damages" — "I Lied, Too" and "Burn It, Shred It, I Don't Care"; "Hey! Mr. Pibb" and "London, of Course"; "Look What He Dug Up This Time" and "Trust Me"
"Dexter" — "The Lion Sleeps Tonight" and "Easy as Pie"; "About Last Night" and "Go Your Own Way"; "I Had a Dream" and "Do You Take Dexter Morgan?"
"House M.D." — "Birthmarks" and "Locked In"; "Simple Explanation" and "House Divided"; "Under My Skin" and "Both Sides Now"
"Lost" — "The Incident" (Parts 1 and 2); "The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham" and "LaFleur";  "The Variable" and "Follow the Leader"
"Mad Men" — "Flight" and "Three Sundays," "Six-Month Leave" and "A Night to Remember," "The Jet Set" and "Meditations in an Emergency"

When sizing up the Emmy battle over best drama series, keep this in mind: the winner will be chosen by about 200 voters who pledge to view two sample episodes of each of the seven nominees. Producers of the nominated shows actually submit in six samples for the Emmy race, but they are divided into three pairs of episodes randomly distributed to voters.

Do all voters actually watch all of the episode samples? Probably not, but at least they must vow that they did so by signing affidavits that are returned along with their final ballots. Surprisingly, most voters actually do their Emmy homework, which is how a low-rated, critically acclaimed show such as "Mad Men" won last year, making Emmy history by becoming the first basic-cable program ever to win best series — either drama or comedy.

Granted, "Mad Men" did have the Big Buzz last year and that helped. That buzz has worn off a bit by now, but many TV critics claim "Mad Men" was even better in Season 2 than it was in Season 1, so that means it must be considered the front-runner to repeat.

But with seven contenders in this race, a winner only needs to have a small sliver of passionate support — even as low as 15%. That means all seven nominees have a shot here. "Big Love" is really a long shot, though, considering the show has no other Emmy nominations. Maybe "House M.D." too, considering it's previously lost this category three times, but keep in mind that "Law & Order" lost five times before it finally prevailed here in 1997. However, that was back in the days when winners were chosen by judging panels forced to watch sample episodes in hotel rooms instead of by academy members who say they viewed same at home. Does that matter? Maybe. The new system creates some emotional distance between viewing and voting since academy members can ink their ballots days after doing their viewing duty. That permits factors like buzz to creep in, which never really mattered during the panel days.

AMC rocked the Emmys last year with a historic breakthrough, scoring the first best-series victory by a basic-cable network ("Mad Men," best drama) plus basic cable's second triumph with best actor in a drama (Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" -- the first was Michael Chiklis in FX's "The Shield," 2002).

So what does the crafty network believe are its best Emmy efforts this year? That can be found inside the Emmy DVD campaign box shipped to TV academy members last week. Inside are these discs containing these shows and episodes:

"Mad Men " Disc 1 -- "Three Sundays," "The New Girl," "Maidenform"
"Mad Men," Disc 2 -- "A Night to Remember," "Six Month Leave," "Meditations in an Emergency"
"Breaking Bad," Disc 1 -- "Seven Thirty-Seven," "Grilled," "Bit by a Dead Bee"
"Breaking Bad," Disc 2 -- "Down," "Breakage," "Peekaboo"
"Storymakers"

OTHER EMMY DVD CAMPAIGN BOXES

FX ships DVDs of seven shows to Emmy voters

Check out the Emmy box shipped by A&E and Bio.

Let's peek inside HBO's Emmy campaign box

As usual, Showtime launches first major campaign of Emmy season

Peek inside Comedy Central's Emmy campaign package

PBS ships Emmy voters DVDs of 'Little Dorrit' and 'Wallander'

Turner ships 'The Closer' and 'Saving Grace' DVDs to Emmy voters

Photos: Tom O'Neil for L.A. Times

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Although Gold Derby predicted it would happen, the upset Bryan Cranston pulled off for best drama actor was considered to be one of the biggest jaw-droppers in recent Emmy history. Now Emmy-watchers wonder: Can his "Breaking Bad" costar Aaron Paul pull off a nomination for his gritty portrayal of a fearless crystal meth dealer who sometimes wages his toughest fights against himself?

According to the L.A. Times Showtracker blog: "Aaron Paul has been superb this season, bringing a vulnerability to Jesse's character that makes his dark descent all the more tragic. Watching him tie that chord around his arm was so, so painful, because as an audience we've come to feel so protective of the guy, have we not? Though I have to say that the visual of his heroin high -- Jesse floating up from his bed -- was one of the coolest images we’ve seen."

Meantime, Aaron Paul has also given a standout performance this TV season as the squeaky clean, upright Scott on "Big Love." Below, we chat about all that via webcam.

Photo: AMC

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