Basically, I think Emmys are going to make like a TV repeat this year and bring back last year's winners in all top series races: best drama ("Mad Men"), lead drama actor (Bryan Cranston, "Breaking  Bad"), lead drama actress (Glenn Close, "Damages"), best comedy ("30 Rock"), lead actor (Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"), lead actress (Tina Fey, "30 Rock"). Here is my full list of predictions, which you should compare with those of other experts pooled by Gold Derby.

Believe it or not, such mass repetition has never happened — all of the top champs returning, that is. It may seem like Emmy winners get rubber-stamped all the time and they often do, but not en masse like that.

What could the upsets be? Bryan Cranston faces a serious challenge from Gabriel Byrne, who gave Emmy judges a powerful episode of "In Treatment" — ("Gina, Week 4") — in which his character has a gripping scene at his father's death bed. "In Treatment" has two drawbacks, though: It's only half the length, time-wise, as rival nominees (size matters in Hollywood) and its characters are excruciatingly whiny, preachy and self-absorbed. However, Dianne Wiest pulled off an upset victory for supporting actress in the series last year.

Cranston also has gripping dramatics in his episode, too — "Phoenix" — read a full description here. Specifically touching is a scene in which he shows his infant daughter the illicit fortune he's stashed away for the well-being of his family's future. Click here to watch a video of Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Robert "Rob L" Licuria and I discuss the nuances of this cliffhanger category race.

Locked up are wins for best series ("Mad Men," "30 Rock") and Glenn Close as actress. There are chances of upsets on the comedy side, all because of a fluke factor of multiple personalities as a voting plus.

For some crazy reason, those notoriously nutty Hollywooders love to reward actors who portray split personalities — as if they're getting multiple performances for the price of one vote. Perhaps the biggest upset in Emmy history was pulled off by Lindsay Wagner as best drama actress — yes, drama actress — in 1977 for the laughably featherweight "Bionic Woman." She did so by giving Emmy judges an episode in which she portrayed good and evil twin takes on her character. Just last year Cynthia Nixon won an Emmy in the guest categories for portraying dual roles on "Law & Order: SVU." At the Daytime Emmys, Erika Slezak of "One Life to Live" won her fourth and fifth awards in 1994-95 and 1995-96, respectively, for acting out six personalities, one of them a 10-year-old boy. At the Oscars, think Joanne Woodward ("Three Faces of Eve") and Fredric March ("Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde").

In the race for best comedy actress, there are two contenders who challenge incumbent champ Tina Fey with multiple roles: Christina Applegate (good and evil turns of the same role in "Samantha Who?") and Toni Collette (four personalities in "United States of Tara"). However, Tina Fey gives a strong, sensitive performance in her episode submission, "Reunion," which reveals she once had a very different side to her adult personality. While attending her high-school reunion, she's shocked to discover that she was once considered to be a mean girl in her peers. (Fey, in real life, is the author and star of the hit film "Mean Girls" — get the inside joke? Will Emmy voters? They're members of the acting branch, which means they can be pretty dim.)

Last year's best comedy actor, Alec Baldwin, now has the split-personalities factor in his favor as he portrays, in "Generalissimo," both his usual role as sinister corporate suit plus an actor who portrays an army general on a Spanish TV soap opera. Baldwin does face some tough competition, though. He's up against Steve Carell ("The Office"), who's overdue to win and gave Emmy judges a sympathetic episode (for a change), titled "Broke." Usually, his character is too creepy or unlikable for voters to want to hug.

The Emmy slugfest over best drama actor is a true heavyweight bout. There are three key players — Hugh Laurie ("House M.D."), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") and Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") — according to our pundits Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net).

Also check out Rob's and Boomer's (often clashing) predix in these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
2.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
3.  Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("Under My Skin")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")
6.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The drama categories are usually quite difficult to predict, generally because there are usually at least 10 to 15 amazing performances that are in the running for these coveted spots, that, depending on the episode submission, could all be contenders for an Emmy win. This is never more the case than what is typically one of the hottest categories year in year out -- drama lead actor. This year is no exception.

Michael C. Hall plays Dexter as a serial killer with a heart of gold, protecting his girlfriend’s children from a sex offender does make his character more likeable and perhaps less of the, let’s face it, monster that he inherently is. Although he is reliably great in this episode, you can't help but feel that because he is up against such fierce competition, this relatively low-key performance will probably not be enough to propel him over the edge.

Having never seen "The Mentalist" before, I was a little skeptical that this nomination was a bit bogus. However, I was won over by Baker's undeniable appeal in a show that is more entertaining than I initially gave it credit for. That being said, he does come across as a bit of a lightweight in comparison to some of the other heavy hitters in this group. I suspect that a nomination might be enough of a reward for the category rookie this year.

Jon Hamm is the center of gravity on what is probably the best and most lauded show on TV right now. Although very subtle and understated in his performances, he is magnetic when he is on the screen, and is probably not given enough credit for the control he displays in his portrayal of Don Draper. He has enough screen time to warrant at least a small shot at the win, but his overall impact left me wanting a bit more before I could crown him a front-runner in this race.

I suspect that the guys in the top-three group have the best chance at winning. It is no coincidence that all three are given the most do to, tend to show more range, and definitely make more of an impact. Hugh Laurie starts off low-key in his episode, but by the end of it he perfectly portrays the physical and mental suffering of an ill Dr. House. Many voters may also keep in mind that Hugh Laurie is way overdue for an Emmy win, and this year might be the perfect time to do so.

Bryan Cranston is superb in "Breaking Bad." Coming off a win last year, he could easily repeat with this performance, which is mostly understated, with Walt's pain and rage barely noticeable as it bubbles under the surface. And then we get two key scenes that almost seal the deal. The tender, touching scene where he proudly shows his newborn daughter the stash of cash he has hidden for her future is a real winner. And of course, the climactic scene where he stands, frozen, over Jane choking and spluttering to her death while Jesse sleeps next to her in a drug haze. Amazing stuff.

But then I watched Gabriel Byrne’s episode. Although the episode runtime is under 30 minutes, Byrne is practically in every frame, front and center. It's very much like a play, with a huge spotlight on him, where he gets to play against one of the greats in Dianne Weist. There’s anger, frustration, and then the dynamite scene at the end of the episode where he cries over the deathbed of his estranged father. It really is the perfect Emmy submission, and had me in tears. The question here is whether voters can be bothered voting for a show that appears to be dead and buried, and definitely lacks the buzz of those actors in best drama series contenders "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men" and "House."

I am very tempted to go with Bryan Cranston, but have decided to go out on a tiny limb for Gabriel Byrne.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
2.  Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Under My Skin")
3.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")
6.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  For this category, let's start at the bottom of the rankings and work forward. I was incredibly entertained by Simon Baker in his new, highly rated show and am very happy for his nomination. He gives a star-type performance, but it certainly is a quiet one with very little emotion or range (at least in this pilot episode). It even made me want to see the rest of the first season to find out what happens. I don't think he has a prayer of winning with this type of episode, however. 

The episode choice by Michael C. Hall is a strange one since I also didn't think his character had any emotional range (previous selections gave him a much better chance at winning for both "Dexter" and "Six Feet Under"). Jon Hamm portrays one of my favorite characters on television, and his choice of episodes was certainly the best he had available from the second season. Unfortunately, the subdued, extremely private, non-emotional nature of his character doesn't provide much for the Emmy voter to chew over (unless they watch the show regularly and want to reward him as part of a "Mad Men" sweep).

Never in Emmy history have all of the top series champs of one year (best comedy and drama series, plus lead actor and actress) returned the next to strike gold again, but it's starting to look like it may happen on Sept. 20.

Many of Gold Derby's top experts — who view the same sample episodes submitted by nominees to Emmy judges — say that the new front-runners are last year's champs: "Mad Men" (best drama series), "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston (lead actor), "Damages'" Glenn Close (lead actress), "30 Rock" (comedy series), "30 Rock's" Alec Baldwin (lead actor) and "30 Rock's" Tina Fey (lead actress).

Possible upsets: Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") or Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") might crush Cranston, Steve Carell ("The Office") could humble Baldwin and Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") may trounce Tina Fey. Otherwise, the outcomes of these Emmy races seem pretty much set, according to our kudos prophets. Over the next few weeks, we'll be spotlighting their predix in more detail.

The closest the Emmys came to repeating in the past occurred in 1968 when all of the victorious lead actors in drama and comedy series returned from 1967: Bill Cosby ("I Spy"), Barbara Bain ("Mission: Impossible"), Don Adams ("Get Smart"), and Lucille Ball ("The Lucy Show"). "Mission: Impossible" won best drama series both years, but there were different winners of best comedy. "The Monkees" won in 1967, "Get Smart" in 1968.

Why would it be bad for last year's Emmy champs to repeat? (Why did I put "Uh, oh!" in the headline?) Actually, it wouldn't be terrible from the point of view of justice. Our spies viewing the nominees' episodes tell us that it seems like last year's victors deserve to prevail again. But the TV critics of America don't care about that. Historically, they've demanded that the Emmys reward new, cool faves and, if they dare to bore them with refried beans, they'll hurl their sloppy plates at them with a fury. Remember, I've written the definitive book on these kudos' history ("The Emmys," Penguin Putnam/ Perigee). I can tell you that's how it always plays out whenever there's too much overlap from year to year.

It shouldn't matter what TV critics think. They don't bother to watch the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges. They don't even bother to investigate what episodes were submitted. They don't care. But that doesn't stop them from mouthing huffy condemnations of the Emmys. That's the equivalent of film critics lambasting the Oscars without bothering to see the movies. Thus their opinions are almost worthless, as far as I'm concerned.

Wow! Members of the Television Critics Assn. actually put their awards where their big mouths are! Finally, the TCA Awards recognized "Battlestar Galactica" after voters beat the beans out of the Emmys for failing to give the show any major awards in the past.

Can this mean a break from the TCA Awards' hypocrisy? In years past, voters whined, fumed and harrumphed about the Emmys failing to recognize "The Wire" and "Buffy the Vampire Slayer," then they snubbed them too. TCA members never gave those shows real prizes — just handed them that bogus "Heritage Award" after they went off the air and failed to win best drama series or program of the year.

"Battlestar Galactica" didn't win a significant TCA Award in the past and now finally reaped one after sailing off the airwaves, but at least it's fared better than other great TV series cruelly snubbed by TCA and the television academy. And while TCA voters skunked vampires back in Buffy's heyday, they did just hail HBO's walking dead by giving "True Blood" their prize as best new program. TV academy members recently drove a stake through "True Blood's" Emmy hopes by snubbing it in all top categories, including best drama actress, which was a major surprise considering Anna Paquin is a past Oscar winner ("The Piano") and Emmy nominee ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee").

But don't get too excited about the TCA Awards mending their old, harsh kudos biases. As usual, women just got snubbed in the performance categories. This year, those awards went to Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") and Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") at the expense of Tina Fey ("30 Rock") and Glenn Close ("Damages"), the only women nominated this year. That's typical.

Sometimes TCA kindly permits a token female to get an honorary career achievement award. This year, that lucky (and deserving) gal was Betty White.

Below, a full list of winners:

PROGRAM OF THE YEAR
"Battlestar Galactica"

NEW PROGRAM
"True Blood"

DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men"

COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"

AMC rocked the Emmys last year with a historic breakthrough, scoring the first best-series victory by a basic-cable network ("Mad Men," best drama) plus basic cable's second triumph with best actor in a drama (Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" -- the first was Michael Chiklis in FX's "The Shield," 2002).

So what does the crafty network believe are its best Emmy efforts this year? That can be found inside the Emmy DVD campaign box shipped to TV academy members last week. Inside are these discs containing these shows and episodes:

"Mad Men " Disc 1 -- "Three Sundays," "The New Girl," "Maidenform"
"Mad Men," Disc 2 -- "A Night to Remember," "Six Month Leave," "Meditations in an Emergency"
"Breaking Bad," Disc 1 -- "Seven Thirty-Seven," "Grilled," "Bit by a Dead Bee"
"Breaking Bad," Disc 2 -- "Down," "Breakage," "Peekaboo"
"Storymakers"

OTHER EMMY DVD CAMPAIGN BOXES

FX ships DVDs of seven shows to Emmy voters

Check out the Emmy box shipped by A&E and Bio.

Let's peek inside HBO's Emmy campaign box

As usual, Showtime launches first major campaign of Emmy season

Peek inside Comedy Central's Emmy campaign package

PBS ships Emmy voters DVDs of 'Little Dorrit' and 'Wallander'

Turner ships 'The Closer' and 'Saving Grace' DVDs to Emmy voters

Photos: Tom O'Neil for L.A. Times

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• Hey, Derbyites: Do you wonder how popular your favorite blog is? Check out the latest LATimes.com traffic report. Last month Gold Derby came in fourth place among the more than 50 blogs here at the Times, clocking 898,618 page views. Thanks for clicking! Oh, yeah, and please keep clicking! And clicking. READERS' REPRESENTATIVE

• Last year Showtime was the first TV network to put sample episodes online for Emmy voters to see. This year it's upping digital innovation by making episodes of "Dexter," "Weeds" and "United States of Tara" accessible via iPhone and iPodTouch. VARIETY

• Looks like "Breaking Bad" will even be badder than ever when it returns to AMC Sunday night after pulling off a dramatic upset victory for Bryan Cranston as best drama actor at last year's Emmy Awards. "How rough can life get for Walt White, a quiet chemistry teacher with a pregnant wife and a handicapped son, who becomes a crystal meth dealer after discovering he is dying of lung cancer?" asks Reuters. "Much, much worse when 'Breaking Bad' begins its second season." TV show "Extra" covered the official premiere. REUTERS / EXTRA

• "'Slumdog Millionaire' is enjoying one of the best Oscar bounces on record," reports Variety. "'Slumdog Millionaire' has crossed the $200 million mark at the worldwide box office, joining an elite group of indie titles to do that kind of business." VARIETY

• The Oscars telecast generated only $72 million in ad sales for ABC — that's a big drop from the $81 million sold last year, according to TNS Media Intelligence. "The web sold 26 minutes of ad time during the kudocast. It filled six minutes and 20 seconds with network promos, the most since 2006," reports Variety. "The tough economy forced ABC to charge $1.4 million per 30-second spot in an effort to sell the inventory. That's comparably less than the $1.7 million it brought in last year per spot." VARIETY

• The poster and trailer to "Public Enemies" are out. Director Michael Mann's flick is due out this summer starring Christian Bale as a saintly FBI agent who hunts down John Dillinger (Johnny Depp). JOBLO

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Emmy can be fickle. She often rewards first-time nominees in a category while leaving other performers forever in the wings.

Suffering their third defeats this year were Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") and Hugh Laurie ("House"). Neither could have been heartened by the Emmycast appearance of six-time lead actor nominee Martin Sheen (2000–2005, 2007), who reminded us that he never won for "The West Wing."

Meantime, all of these stars won this year for their first acting nominations: Zeljko Ivanek (supporting actor in a drama series, "Damages"), Paul Giamatti (best TV movie actor, "John Adams") and Eileen Atkins (best supporting actress in a TV movie/mini, "Cranford").

Among those Ivanek defeated was "Damages" co-star Ted Danson, who had to wait till nomination No. 8 before he won best actor in a comedy series for "Cheers" in 1990.

Perhaps that can be of some comfort to Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), who just lost her fourth consecutive bid for best supporting actress in a drama series this year. And on the comedy front, lead actor contenders Steve Carell ("The Office") and Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men") weren't laughing at becoming three-time losers, as did Sheen's supporting players Jon Cryer and Holland Taylor.

In our forums, frequent poster Noble kicked off an interesting discussion on this year's perennial runners-up and reminded us of others who left the airwaves without ever winning.

Sure, Bryan Cranston finally won this year as best lead drama actor ("Breaking Bad") after losing three times in the supporting slot for the laffer "Malcolm in the Middle" earlier in his career, his "Malcolm" wife Jane Kaczmarek lost seven consecutive lead bids (2000–2006). Among those actresses who beat her were two first-time category nominees: Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") in 2005 and Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine") in 2006. While Louis-Dreyfus may have been lucky first time out of the gate in the lead category, DoubleD reminds us she had to wait till nomination No. 5 in 1996 before winning in the supporting race for "Seinfeld."

In 2004, Kaczmarek lost to Sarah Jessica Parker, who finally won with her sixth consecutive nod for "Sex and the City," while the previous year Debra Messing had prevailed after only four bids for "Will & Grace." Parker's first defeat in 1999 had been to Helen Hunt, who won her fourth consecutive Emmy for "Mad About You." And, as per RichT315, that was the same year Hunt's co-star Paul Reiser lost his sixth consecutive lead actor bid for a role he co-created. That year also marked the beginning of a seven-year losing streak for Peter Boyle ("Everybody Loves Raymond"). Among those who beat Boyle were his co-star Brad Garrett, who prevailed three times.

Continue reading more examples in our forums, HERE.

(Fox, HBO)

How did "Mad Men" pull off that historical victory as the first basic-cable show to win best drama or comedy series at the Emmys — plus that jawdropper for Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") as best actor? Much of it had to do with AMC, a new player in producing original dramas for TV, being instantly savvy about kudos campaigning.

Last year, after the success of the network's launch of its first-ever longform, "Broken Trail," which rustled up 9.8 million viewers, AMC decided to go prospecting for Emmy gold. Shrewdly, execs hired Murray Weissman, a veteran Oscar campaigner who once had been PR chief of the TV academy, and agreed to spend generously for the necessary investment. Weissman worked closely with AMC general manager Charlie Collier, PR chief Theano Apostolou and marketing gurus Gina Hughes and Alison Hoffman, and together they struck a motherload on awards night: "Broken Trail" won four Emmys, including best miniseries and actor (Robert Duvall).

Encouraged by that result plus positive reviews for its first-ever drama series, "Mad Men," AMC decided to take the plunge again, proceeding aggressively to crank up the ballyhoo for that show plus ratings sleeper "Breaking Bad."

"We made a strong push for all of the industry prizes, including the guild awards," Weissman says. They took out "For Your Consideration" ads in all of the trade publications' special award issues and did frequent Q&A panel discussions with those groups involving the shows' cast, producers and writers.

The effort paid off with victories at the writers, directors and art directors guilds for "Mad Men," and the cast received two nominations from the Screen Actors Guild (best ensemble, best actor).

The "Mad Men" gang held an early press conference with members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and earned two Golden Globe nominations for "Mad Men" that paid off with wins: best drama series and actor (Jon Hamm).

The Emmy campaigns began early in 2008 for both TV series. "Breaking Bad" missed out on the Globes and guild kudos because it wasn't eligible, being launched in January, but hype for Emmys debuted right along with the rookie show. Again, there was a hefty ad push in the trade papers and in the print and online versions of The Envelope, and each TV series took out double-page-spread ads in Emmy Magazine.

"Single-page ads in Emmy Magazine aren't enough," says Weissman. "HBO and other networks go in with spreads, so you should too." And, of course, Q&A screenings were held across Hollywood (one of which, for The Envelope's first Emmy Screening Series, was moderated by yours truly).

Last year AMC had to pay a hefty sum to rent out the TV academy's auditorium for a special event inviting members to meet the creators of "Broken Trail," but thanks to all of the TV critics' huzzahs for "Mad Men," that series was showcased this year as one of the academy-sponsored evenings.

"The DVDs were shipped to TV academy members a little later than I would've liked," Weissman says. "Just around the same time voters are being deluged with other screeners, but the DVDs were beautifully packaged, so maybe the production delay was OK."

Yes — yikes — this means I am shimmying out onto a thin, shaky predix limb, I know, but little Emmy birdies tell me that we pundits have made a big mistake underestimating Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") in the race for best drama actor.

Up until recently, I was with my Envelope comrades resting on usually sturdy oak for James Spader ("Boston Legal"). After all, Spader has never lost — he's gone three for three at Emmys past, including last year, and now he gives his most dynamic performance yet in the sample episode he submitted to Emmy judges. "The Court Supreme" is Spader's performance supreme, granted — he's never been better or given a longer or more dramatic courtroom speech than he does chewing out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. Read more about his Emmy chances and history, CLICK HERE.

But I have a hunch that Emmy voters are just as sick of seeing him win as we pundits are, especially after his ungrateful, snarky acceptance speech last year when he claimed his latest statuette with a shrug, saying, "I still have no idea who votes for these things. Or how you even secure a ballot. Uh . . . but thank you."

The battle over best drama actor is a truly dramatic smackdown involving formidable heavyweights. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House, M.D.") have real shots to win, and maybe even Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") too. Perhaps I'm making a big mistake pooh-poohing the prospects of Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). After all, he's an esteemed star of artsy indie films, which appeals to those notorious snobs in the TV academy, and he delivers a pretentious-as-heck talkathon with Dianne Wiest in his episode submission, but it doesn't contain the emotional fireworks we spy elsewhere in this race.

Frame for frame, moment for moment, Cranston delivers the most intense, theatrical performance of all contenders as a science teacher who wigs out and becomes a crystal meth chef upon hearing the news that he's dying of cancer. The episode has a huge "ick" factor. Watching this good father, husband and teacher team up with drug dealers who will sell their poison to innocents is cringe-inducing, especially since he does it sweating, scowling and romping around in his underpants in the desert. But he does it to whip up a quick fortune to leave his family before he croaks, so his motive isn't selfish.

Just look at the YouTube video below. It's the first scene of the pilot episode, which is what he submitted to Emmy judges. He's talking into a video camera, telling his family how much he loves them and why he's doing such terrible things. If that doesn't wow Emmy voters, what will?

Cranston's episode has all three elements that are key to impressing judges: It has wide emotional range, impact (not just one big money scene, but a treasure-packed hour of them) and — most important of all — empathy. That's crucial. Portraying a powerfully empathetic character is how Particia Arquette ("Medium") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") pulled off recent upsets in the lead-actress races. It's impossible not to feel the terror, dread, sadness and doom Cranston's character experiences as he chooses to step into hell before life's end. Read the full episode description HERE.

But Cranston also has a few other pluses. Even though his character allies himself with a thug, he knocks off worse devils in the pilot to "Breaking Bad." The final fight scene is a heart-stopping shockeroo, and it redeems him a bit too. But the other secret ingredient this episode contains is its theme of substance abuse — one that often triggers big award wins in rehab-happy Hollywood. Candice Bergen won many of her five Emmys for episodes dealing with Murphy Brown's alcoholism. Ditto for Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"), even Kirstie Alley ("Cheers"). Just last year Helen Mirren claimed another Emmy as best actress in a TV film as a police detective battling the bottle.

Lastly, Cranston, personally speaking, is endearing and beloved across Hollywood. It's easy to see why in this video chat I had with him and his "Breaking Bad" costar Anna Gunn last weekend on the red carpet outside the Creative Arts Emmys. Watch his reaction when I tell him that he's got a real chance to win. Over the past few weeks I've been hearing more and more positive buzz for his Emmy hopes from inside industry sources, so I'm starting to take his chances seriously. And so should you. With six nominees in this category, a contender, theoretically, may need only 17% of the vote to win.

What I say in this video to Gunn and Cranston is hard to hear because I'm holding the camera several feet away from them while they hold the mike close to themselves. At first I ask them for their reaction to the amazing breakthrough that basic-cable TV shows by AMC ("Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") have had at the Emmys this year. Later in the video I ask Bryan to tell us what his reaction was when he heard that he was nominated for best lead drama actor. Then I inform him that some serious Emmy gurus (like Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly) are picking him to win. Then I ask him if he'll attend this Sunday's ceremony with a prepared acceptance speech — just in case he does win.

Hey, I can't let Ausiello be the only guru to claim this longshot among the pundits in our Emmy pool, can I? (See all predix HERE.) So now I'm (nervously) stepping off of the James Spader bandwagon to pick Cranston for the win too. Below are my revised racetrack odds for this category. To see the full list of racetrack odds, CLICK HERE

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1

(AMC, L.A. Times)