• Getting ready for the Daytime Emmys to be telecast on Sunday at 8 p.m. PDT/ EDT on the CW network? Here are two primer articles to check out: our curtain-raiser here at The Envelope plus the report in Variety.

• If Scott Feinberg is correct, the 10 Oscar nominees for best picture will be the following, listed here in order of likelihood of winning: "Invictus," "Nine," "Amelia," "Up in the Air," "Precious," "Avatar," "The Lovely Bones," "An Education," "Capitalism: A Love Story" and "The Hurt Locker." In the derbies for best actor and actress, he puts Morgan Freeman ("Invictus") and Carey Mulligan ("An Education") out front. And the Winner Is. . . .

• Beyonce is not only up for nine Moonmen on Sept. 13, she'll also perform at the MTV Video Music Awards crooning "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)." Other performers include hubby Jay-Z, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, Green Day, Pink and Muse. This will be the third time she's sung on the show. She did "Crazy in Love" in 2003 and "Ring the Alarm" in 2006. MTV

• Sept. 1 is the deadline for documentary filmmakers to submit their work for Oscar consideration. Oscars.org

• Michael Haneke's "The White Ribbon," which won the Palme d'Or at Cannes, has just won the Grand Prix bestowed by the International Federation of Film Critics (Fipresci). It's also been named Germany's entry to the Oscars. Previous champs were Oscar ponies "Volver" and "There Will Be Blood."  Variety

• Below is the trailer to quirky Oscar contender "The Men Who Stare at Goats," a film about a secret U.S. military unit devoted to exploring psychic power. It not only stars George Clooney, but it's directed by Grant Heslov, who cowrote "Good Night, and Good Luck" with Clooney, and co-produced and costarred in "Leatherheads" with him too. Oh, yeah, "Goats" also stars Ewan McGregor and Kevin Spacey. It's based upon Jon Ronson's 2004 book.

Photo: Warner Bros.

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The last Oscars derby ended just weeks ago, but -- admit it -- you can't wait to find out which ponies are out front for the next race. Our forum posters are already making early predix here, but below is some of our own noodling too.

Among the Oscar contenders for best picture, for example, are Peter Jackson's "The Lovely Bones," Clint Eastwood's untitled project, Martin Scorsese's "Shutter Island," Rob Marshall's "Nine," Ang Lee's "Taking Woodstock" and Stephen Frears' "Cheri."

The Oscar winning "Lord of the Rings" scripters Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens adapted Alice Sebold's best-selling novel, "The Lovely Bones." Jackson -- who also won Oscars for directing and producing the third film in the 'Rings' trilogy -- performs the same roles here. Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement") is the murdered girl who watches over her grieving parents -- Oscar nominee Mark Wahlberg ("The Departed") and supporting actress winner Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener").

Clint Eastwood won his two directing Oscars for best picture champs "Unforgiven" (1992) and "Million Dollar Baby" (2004). Four-time nominee Morgan Freeman co-starred in both those films and won the supporting Oscar for the latter. The old friends reunite for this fact-based film (at one time titled "The Human Factor") set in post-apartheid South Africa. Freeman portrays Nelson Mandela and Oscar nominee Matt Damon ("Good Will Hunting") as the coach of the first integrated rugby team.

With the period crime drama "Shutter Island" based on the 2003 best-selling mystery by Dennis Lehane ("Mystic River"), Martin Scorsese helms his first film since winning an Oscar for 2006 best picture "The Departed." Three-time Oscar nominee Leonardo DiCaprio ("What's Eating Gilbert Grape," "The Aviator," "Blood Diamond") takes direction from Scorsese for the fourth time. He plays a U.S. marshal searching for a patient (Emily Mortimer) missing from a Cape Cod hospital for the criminally insane in 1954. Oscar winner Ben Kingsley ("Gandhi") is the head of the hospital, with Oscar nominees Max von Sydow ("Pelle the Conqueror") as a dubious doctor and Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain") as DeCaprio's wife.

Rob Marshall ("Chicago") works his magic on another stage-to-screen transfer with an adaptation of the 1982 Tony-winning best musical "Nine" that was, in turn, inspired by Federico Fellini's 1963 Oscar-winning "8½." Two-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis ("My Left Foot," "There Will Be Blood") is the wayward film director at the center of the action, while a bevy of Oscar winners are the women in his life -- Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") as his faithful wife, Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona") as his mistress, Nicole Kidman ("The Hours) as his protege, Judi Dench ("Shakespeare in Love") as his mentor and Sophia Loren ("Two Women") as his mother.

Oscar winner Ang Lee ("Brokeback Mountain") reunites with Oscar-nominated scripter James Schamus ("Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon") for "Taking Woodstock," a biopic set against the backdrop of the famed 1969 musical festival. With Schamus now head of Focus Features, expect a big push from the studio for this period piece. Emmy-nominated writer Demetri Martin ("Late Night with Conan O'Brien") plays the son of the couple -- two-time Oliver winner Henry Goodman ("Assassins," "The Merchant of Venice") and Oscar nominee Imelda Staunton ("Vera Drake") -- behind the festival. The rest of the cast is filled with theater folk, including Tony winners Liev Schreiber ("Glengarry Glen Ross") and Dan Folger ("The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee") and nominee Jonathan Groff ("Spring Awakening").

Twenty-one years after "Dangerous Liaisons," Michelle Pfeiffer reunites with director Stephen Frears ("The Queen") and Oscar-winning scripter Christopher Hampton for an adaptation of Colette's 1920 novel, "Cheri." Back then, Pfeiffer earned the first of her three Oscar nods for playing the innocent; her other noms came for "The Fabulous Baker Boys" and "Love Field." Now she is the seductress who beds the young son (Rupert Friend) of her courtesan friend (Oscar winner Kathy Bates, "Misery").

And while Pfeiffer has never won an Oscar, Meryl Streep just lost for the 13th time. She could be contending again for playing chef Julia Child in "Julie and Julia." Writer-turned-director Nora Ephron earned Oscar nods for her original scripts for "Silkwood," "When Harry Met Sally" and "Sleepless in Seattle." In her adaptation of Julie Powell's best-selling memoir, Ephron tells the parallel stories of a modern day woman -- two-time Oscar nominee Amy Adams ("Junebug," "Doubt") -- working her way through Julia Child's classic cookbook and its origins.

In flashbacks set in 1950s Paris, Meryl Streep plays the culinary wizard and her "Devil Wears Prada" co-star Stanley Tucci is her husband. An accent and a physical transformation could well earn the soon-to-be 60-year-old actress another Oscar nod after 12 leading bids and another three supporting ones. And while she has only two wins ("Kramer vs. Kramer," "Sophie's Choice") to show for her efforts, Streep should remember that all-time champ Katharine Hepburn didn't take three of her four lead actress Oscars till she was at least that age. This contender is produced by Scott Rudin ("Doubt," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood") and due to open Aug. 7.

Photos: Warner Bros., Columbia Pictures

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"I don't think that the awards necessarily get it right," Matt Damon told Parade. "I think they get it wrong more often than they get it right."

Matt Damon didn't say if he thinks the Oscars got it wrong when he and Ben Affleck won best screenplay of 1997 for "Good Will Hunting," but he apparently thinks that he should've been in the derby trot for the same film much more recently.

"I think that the best way to judge movies is, like, 10 years after they're released," he added. "I think they should actually do the awards that way. I think they should have done the Academy Awards this year for movies from 1998."

So that must mean that Matt Damon may wish not to be considered for his roles in films due out this year like Clint Eastwood's "The Human Factor," and Kenneth Lonergan's "Margaret," and Paul Greengrass' "Green Zone" and Steven Soderbergh's "The Informant" till 2019.

Hey, in the photo above, doesn't it look like Damon and Affleck are trying to give back their Oscars?

Do you think they also want to give back their Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards?

Photo: ABC

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"The Reader" has so much strength with voters at the Oscars that not only did it bump "The Dark Knight" from the top races for best picture and director, but Kate Winslet also was moved up from supporting to lead. Despite giving the core performance in the picture, Kate Winslet had been campaigning for a supporting nod so as not to cancel out her hopes for a lead nomination for "Revolutionary Road." The latter film, which was virtually snubbed, reunited Winslet with her "Titanic" costar Leonardo DiCaprio and was directed by her Oscar-winning husband, Sam Mendes ("American Beauty").

"Revolutionary Road" costars DiCaprio and Winslet were nominated for best lead drama actor and actress at the Golden Globes, where Winslet won twice: in lead for "Road" and supporting for "The Reader." However, DiCaprio was also snubbed today at the Oscars, just like he was the last time he costarred with Winslet — in "Titanic," which earned her a nomination for best actress (she lost to Helen Hunt, "As Good As It Gets"). "Titanic" ended up sailing off with more Oscars than any other movie in history (except "Ben-Hur," which also received 11), leaving its lead male star behind. DiCaprio, in turn, snubbed the Oscars and didn't attend the ceremony.

Over the last decade, the best picture and director lineups have been out of sync by at least one nomination in every year but 2005. So it was widely thought that if "The Dark Knight" didn't get in for best picture at least DGA nominee Christopher Nolan would be recognized for his helming. Instead, "The Reader's" Stephen Daldry made the cut with the directors, which lined up exactly with best picture. This means that Daldry has been nominated for every feature film he's ever directed. His previous two flicks were "Billy Elliot" (2000) and "The Hours" (2002).

The Oscar nominations for "The Reader" are a huge vindication for studio chief Harvey Weinstein, who forced the film's release in 2008 even though it meant clashing with co-producer Scott Rudin. Rudin was backing his other pony in the Oscar race — "Revolutionary Road." And with Kate Winslet understandably loyal to her husband, Rudin wanted Weinstein to wait till 2009 to release "The Reader." When Weinstein wouldn't, Rudin pulled his own name from the credits of "The Reader." Last year, Rudin produced best-picture winner "No Country for Old Men" and nominee "There Will Be Blood."

Many Oscarologists believed that Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino") would be nominated for best actor despite the fact that he had been shut out at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. After all, Eastwood has never been nominated for acting by the Globes and wasn't nominated by SAG for "Million Dollar Baby." (SAG didn't have competitive awards when "Unforgiven" was released in 1992.) Nonetheless, he did manage to reap past acting bids at the Oscars for "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby."

It's surprising that critics' darling Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky") was snubbed, considering her early derby victories as best actress at both the Gotham and L.A. critics' awards, as well as the Golden Globes. Oscar voters nominated the lead female stars of other Mike Leigh films: Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies") and Imelda Staunton ("Vera Drake").

Where's the slumdog, you ask? Dev Patel, star of "Slumdog Millionaire" and a BAFTA lead actor nominee, was snubbed in the supporting race even though his film reaped an impressive tally of 10 nominations and is considered the front-runner to win best picture.

Indeed, the love for "Slumdog Millionaire" was so strong that the academy's music branch nominated two of the songs from the film — "Jai Ho" and "O Saya" — and snubbed past Oscar winner Bruce Springsteen, who just won a Golden Globe for the title track to "The Wrestler." Bruce Springsteen won his Oscar in 1993 for the song "Streets of Philadelphia" from the film "Philadelphia." He was nominated two years later for the title song of "Dead Man Walking" but lost to "Colors of the Wind" from "Pocahontas."

NOTABLE OSCARS SNUBS

BEST PICTURE
"The Dark Knight"
"Wall-E"
"Gran Torino"

BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight"

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood ("Gran Torino")
Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road")
Dustin Hoffman ("Last Chance Harvey")

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins ("Happy-Go-Lucky")
Cate Blanchett ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long")

How can you sleep, my fellow Oscars nuts? I can't! Academy Awards nominations are just hours away and we don't really know what will be nominated for best picture! Yes, there are three shoo-ins: "Slumdog Millionaire," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" and "Milk." Possibly "Frost/Nixon" too. But what about that fifth slot, eh? "Gran Torino"? "The Reader"? "Doubt"? "Wall-E"?

Or will a superhero finally land in the top Oscars smackdown for the first time ever? As TV ratings of the Oscarcast continue to plunge year to year, Golden Boy could sure use a heroic intervention.

"The Dark Knight" looms over this Oscars derby in so many ominous ways. While suffering from one of the worst cases of Oscar insomnia that I've had in a long time, I mulled all this over — just for you on this video.

Read Gold Derby's in-depth analysis of the best picture race!

SEE RELATED OSCARS VIDEOS

Mark Harris of Entertainment Weekly agrees: "The Dark Knight" will nab that fifth best-picture slot.

Peter Travers of Rolling Stone explains why he believes "Slumdog Millionaire" is top dog in the Oscars' best-picture race.

New York Times Carpetbagger David Carr and I dish the derby. (Oh, yeah, and he tries to strangle me!)

Pete Hammond and Anthony Breznican ponder the question: Will Golden Globe winners repeat at the Oscars?

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• Dave Karger of Entertainment Weekly makes this astute observation about the wide-open nature of the lead acting races at the upcoming Academy Awards. "In the last five years, every eventual lead-acting Oscar winner, with the exception of "La Vie en Rose's" Marion Cotillard last year, won the Broadcast Critics award and a Golden Globe before picking up the big prize. So in a sense, all the other nine winners — Daniel Day-Lewis, Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Reese Witherspoon, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hilary Swank, Jamie Foxx, Charlize Theron and Sean Penn — were basically foregone conclusions come Oscar night. This year, however, is a completely different story. For the first time since 2003, the BFCA winners and Globe winners were different performers in both lead-acting races." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Sasha Stone of Awards Daily previews tomorrow's BAFTA nominations, winnowing down the long lists released last week. "It should average roughly 2/3rds what the Oscar nominations will be able. Since so many Brits have now won Oscars we can sometimes look to the BAFTA in ways we never could before. Last year’s Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard both won BAFTAs before they went on to win Oscars. On the other hand, "Atonement" won their Feature prize and No Country for Old Men won the Oscar. They don’t seem particularly interested in reflecting the Academy’s taste but rather, in influencing it. They used to hold their awards after the Oscars, in fact. But a few years back they positioned them before the Oscars, then the Academy pushed their own awards back a month and that caused chaos to ensue. Somehow, it keeps on chugging along anyway." AWARDS DAILY

• Guy Lodge dares to scoot out onto some thin limbs to make BAFTA predix while Kris Tapley begins to unveil his choices for best film cinematography of 2008. IN CONTENTION

• Current Grammy Award nominees Kenny Chesney, Coldplay, Jonas Brothers, Lil Wayne, and Katy Perry are the first performers announced for the upcoming Feb. 8 awardscast. Lil Wayne leads with eight nominations, four-time Grammy winner Coldplay has seven nods, while Chesney, the Jonas Brothers, and Perry each have a single nom. GRAMMYS

• The 2004 Emmy Award winning comedy series "Arrested Development" has hit a bump on the road to the big screen, according to a TV Guide interview with series star Jason Bateman. "I think Michael Cera is clearly the guy that has come out of 'Arrested Development' with a very big plate, so I think he's trying to really give some responsible thought to what makes sense for him to do with his career," he said. "The guy is 20 years old and I'm sure he doesn't want to screw up this opportunity." If Cera does not come back, it will put a damper on Hurwitz's premise for the flick. Although he toyed with the idea of a prequel, featuring a kid CG version of Cera, Hurwitz, also a producer on Sit Down, Shut Up, said his plan now is to jump ahead in time. "We're going to pick up five years later, and family dynamics change, but they also kind of stay the same," he said. "So hopefully we'll just explore where they are now." TV GUIDE

• Tony Award winner and Emmy nominated star Kristin Chenoweth had mixed news on the fate of "Pushing Daisies." As per TV Guide, "The final episodes, when and if they eventually air, won't resolve all of the plotlines on the show but show creator Bryan Fuller has an idea for a movie that would. "It would wrap up a lot of the unanswered questions that people will have once they finally air our final episodes," said the singer-actress." TV GUIDE

• One of the hot prospects for next year's Tony Awards — a musical version of "The Addams Family" — is being workshopped in Manhattan this month. This tryout stars two-time Tony Award winner Nathan Lane as Gomez and multiple Tony and Emmy Award winner Bebe Neuwirth as Morticia. Says Playbill, "With a book by Marshall Brickman and Rick Elice (librettists of the 2006 Tony Award-winning best musical, "Jersey Boys") and music and lyrics by Drama Desk award-winning composer-lyricist Andrew Lippa ("The Wild Party"), the musical is wholly original and not based on Addams Family material from other media — don't expect the TV series or the films." PLAYBILL

• Playbill is also reporting that casting is now complete for "33 Variations," the Moises Kaufman play that marks the return of Oscar winner Jane Fonda to Broadway after 45 years. Rounding out the cast of eight are Samantha Mathis and Colin Hanks. The piece marks the Broadway debut of Kaufman ("The Laramie Project") and "concerns Katherine Brandt (Jane Fonda), trying to solve a centuries-old mystery about the world's greatest composer — Beethoven. Her obsession takes her from present-day New York to 19th-century Austria. As the music that consumes Katherine comes to life on stage, she races against time to find common ground with her daughter (Mathis) and to embrace the legacy of her own life." PLAYBILL

Photos: Paramount Vantage, ABC, Fox

• In his latest weekly installment of Notes on a Season here at the Envelope, Pete Hammond wonders whether the Golden Globes have sealed the fate of the Oscars. As he writes, "Are the Globes predictive of where the Academy is heading or is this just a bump in the road for all contenders other than 'Slumdog Millionaire,' which is clearly the undisputed front-runner for the Oscars now as well? If it didn't have reason enough before, the Academy can feel comfortable in crowning 'the indie movie that could' even though Sunday's Globe results will have little effect on the outcome of the Oscar nominations as polls close at 5 p.m. Monday." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Dave Karger speculates on the distinct possibility that "Gran Torino" could end up in the final five for best picture at the Academy Awards. As Dave sees it, "Could Clint Eastwood do it again? In 2004, his directorial effort 'Million Dollar Baby' was an eleventh-hour entry in the awards race and ended up winning Best Picture and Best Director, among several other prizes. Two years later, his late addition of 'Letters From Iwo Jima' came from nowhere to earn a bunch of top-tier nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. And now, his fascinating drama 'Gran Torino' is indisputably the hot movie of the moment: It just raked in nearly $30 million in its first weekend of wide release, and it's the film that most Oscar voters discovered last, screening it just before ballots were due." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Scott Feinberg gets his anonymous academy member "Deep Vote" to rat on which films he voted for in the best picture race: "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Gran Torino," "Slumdog Millionaire." Also, Scott dishes his own post-Globes analysis. FEINBERG FILES

• "Kate Winslet’s biggest competition for best actress is, strangely enough, Anne Hathaway," says Sasha Stone at AwardsDaily.com where she offers up an exhaustive analysis of the top Oscar races. "It really should be Meryl Streep but it seems like Hathaway has carved a strong groove in this race already." AWARDS DAILY

• While watching the Golden Globes, InContention.com's Guy Lodge spied an abundance of affection: "It seemed to me that, in almost every category, the HFPA members had voted with their collective hearts, singling out the performers and films that they themselves loved." IN CONTENTION

• Continuing on the subject of the Golden Globe Awards, Steven Zeitchik, who pens the Risky Biz blog at the Hollywood Reporter, thinks "the real lesson is the kinds of movies that have statues in front of them. There were a number of big prestige pictures this season that were built to win awards: 'Frost/Nixon.' 'Milk.' 'Doubt.' Sure, they're designed to make money. But find us a producer or exec on any of those movies who, in their most candid moments, doesn't also say they've been thinking with these films about taking their place on, or getting out a shout out from, the podium at a big awards show. Find someone who says that it's not a key metric of these movies' performance. Yet among these three pics none got a single statue Sunday." HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

• Kristin Dos Santos warns, "Before you 'Mad Men' fans pop open any more bubbly to celebrate the show's big win at the Golden Globes, you should know: The future of the AMC hit is in danger, according to the show's mastermind, Matt Weiner, who is not signed on to continue with the series." The intrepid reporter met up with Weiner at the InStyle Golden Globes afterparty where he told her, "I don't know anything about next season—I don't even know if it's happening." As Kristin writes, "Despite the stalemate, AMC president Charlie Collier announced at the TV Critics Assn. Press Tour last week that "Mad Men" will be coming back this summer for the third season — with or without Weiner." E ONLINE

• Mike Ausiello reports that one-time movie diva Faye Dunaway will be guesting on TV's "Grey's Anatomy" later this season. "Sources confirm to me exclusively that the Oscar winner (for 'Network'), who hasn't taken a small-screen gig since a 2006 episode of 'CSI,' has signed on for at least one episode of Grey's Anatomy to air in February. She'll play a renowned doc at the hospital who crosses paths with the Chief, Cristina and Owen." Dunaway won the guest actress in a drama series Emmy Awards back in 1994 for her turn as a murdering mistress on "Columbo." ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• T.L. Stanley writes of the road to the Razzies as a newly minted member of this kudo dedicated to the worst of Hollywood. "It takes a special, gutter-dwelling brand of movie-making to get the folks at the Razzies to cry uncle. What made the grade the other night at a party to watch and debate the worst-of-the-worst from '08 ? Uwe Boll's 'Postal.' It was a wondrous thing to behold — people accustomed to suffering through all manner of horrifyingly bad movies couldn't take even one more snippet, much less the entire flick." Razzie nominations will be announced Jan. 21, the day before the Oscar nods, with the awardsfest the night before the Feb. 22 Oscarcast. GOLD RUSH

Photos: Warner Bros., AP

Here's my analysis of the top Golden Globe Awards races. Category per category. See a breakdown of predix from more than a dozen top pundits HERE. Film critic Gene Seymour outlined his analysis for Gold Derby readers HERE. See a full list of nominees HERE.

BEST DRAMA PICTURE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
X - "Slumdog Millionaire"

It's Goliath versus David — the big, epic studio film packed with superstars ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button') up against a sly underdog indie (make that "Slumdog") featuring actors we don't know.

Usually, the Golden Globes prefer big pictures as best picture like last year's winner "Atonement" over Oscars champ "No Country for Old Men." Remember, these awards are voted upon by foreign journalists who seem to have a special appreciation for big magic made by the goliath Hollywood studios that once mesmerized them from afar, back in their native lands. If they're still so bedazzled now, they'll go for "Button," which also features the kind of A-list celebs that the voters usually demand.

But that's where things get confusing this year. Did the inclusion of Brad Pitt in "Babel" help it to win best picture two years ago? "Babel" seems to have a lot in common with "Slumdog Millionaire." Both are set overseas in poverty-stricken locales and include foreign dialogue. But "Slumdog"  doesn't have Western stars like "Babel." Does that matter?

I don't think so. Instead, I suspect that these outlander journalists are comfy with foreign-set films as long as the pix are popular among the Hollywood cool crowd. "Slumdog Millionaire" seems to be Oscar-bound. Usually, the Oscars and Golden Globes agree on best picture — they've done so 42 times over the past 64 years, mostly in the drama category, of course, but some in the musical/comedy genre ("Chicago," "Shakespeare in Love"). Over the past three years they disagreed. "Slumdog Millionare" strikes me as just the kind of movie that can hit both jackpots.

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL PICTURE
"Burn After Reading"
"Happy-Go-Lucky"
"In Bruges"
X - "Mamma Mia!"
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Most pundits are predicting "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" because they think that Golden Globe voters think (like they do) that Woody Allen is cool. And they may be right. It was at the Globes years ago that his quirky roles in "Mighty Aphrodite" (Mira Sorvino) and "Bullets Over Broadway" (Dianne Wiest) got noticed before the Oscars and, while Globers preferred Neil Simon's "The Goodbye Girl" to "Annie Hall" for best musical/comedy picture of 1977, they did crown "Hannah and Her Sisters" as the best of 1986.

Furthermore, the foreign journalists may really like the fact that "Vicky" is set in Spain.

However, I believe in the awards-prediction theory that, at the Golden Globes, successful musicals trump comedies.

Look at the list of past winners in this race. For the most part, whenever a successful tuner was nominated, it won — "Sweeney Todd," "Dreamgirls," "Chicago," "Moulin Rouge," "Evita," "The Lion King." Other champs like "Walk the Line" and "Almost Famous" were really musicals too, let's face it. Sure, "Phantom of the Opera" and "Ray" lost to "Sideways," but that's probably because the musical vote split (and "Phantom" wasn't a success).

"Mamma Mia!" is not only a successful musical, it's one of the biggest foreign musical hits ever — back in the home countries of the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. Don't you think voters are tempted to validate the view of their kin with a Hollywood award?

BEST DIRECTOR
X - Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"

This race is where we often see the most dramatic evidence of voters' desire to spread the wealth — that is, those Globes of gold. Whereas the directors' award usually lines up with best picture at the Oscars, the two prizes often split here. Since the year 2000, the Globes for directing and picture(s) have split six times in eight years. However, before we get too carried away with that statistic, we should note that there was much more agreement during the 1990s.

Many kudos watchers believe these two Globes will split again this year. It makes more sense to predict that best director will go to "Slumdog's" Danny Boyle since he's British and because the director's award tends to go to the more artsy flick (like "Diving Bell and the Butterfly" helmer Julian Schnabel last year). There's a lot of backlash against "Button" helmer David Fincher of late, so it seems unlikely he can win. That's why some award gurus are predicting "Button" for best drama picture and "Slumdog's" Boyle for director.

But I'll stubbornly stick with "Slumdog" here too.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
X - Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Expect an upset here. Sure, Sean Penn's won practically every precursor award so far, but he frequently snubs the Golden Globes. This year he didn't participate in the "Milk" press conference at HFPA. When he won four years ago, he didn't show up. That night Clint Eastwood raced to the stage to accept on Sean's behalf and save face for the "Mystic River" team. Afterward, Penn promised he'd attend the Globes the following year to present an award. Again, he didn't show up.

Furthermore, it's apparent that voters don't like "Milk." It's not nominated for best picture or in other top races.

That's why I think Frank Langella will prevail. He not only portrays a real person (all voters of showbiz awards are suckers for that), but a really (in)famous American one — the utterly fascinating, bizarre Richard Nixon. If you've ever met HFPA members, you know that they're mostly of a certain age. No doubt they remember his tragic presidency well and are rightfully impressed with how brilliantly Langella nails him.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
X - Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"

First off, let's deal with this Kate Winslet problem. Support for "Revolutionary Road" is lukewarm. If voters are going to give her a Globe (she's lost five times just like she has at the Oscars), they're probably going to give it to her in supporting. I hear that voters really, really like "The Reader" a lot and want to give it a prize.

That means this lead category is between those former "The Devil Wears Prada" costars who just tied at the Critics' Choice Awards. What's great about the Globes is that they don't punish older gals like Oscar voters do. Meryl Streep hasn't won an Oscar in more than 25 years, but she bagged a Globe two years ago for "Prada" and five years ago for "Adaptation." (In between, she triumphed in the TV races for "Angels in America.")

But Globers really like to crown hot, sexy new ingenues too — they seem to like that most of all. Anne Hathaway just made an impressive crossover from blockbuster popcorn pix like "The Princess Diaries" to artsy fare. They gave a Globe to Julia Roberts for doing the same in "Erin Brockovich."

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
Javier Bardem, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
X - Colin Farrell, "In Bruges"
James Franco, "Pineapple Express"
Brendan Gleeson, "In Bruges"
Dustin Hoffman, "Last Chance Harvey"

Everybody except Brendan Gleeson has a real chance to win. I'm going with Colin Farrell because the Globers I've spoken to are crazy for "In Bruges" and are eager to get it attention. Besides, Farrell's a sexy superstar who's overdue to be taken seriously with a chunk of kudos gold.

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
Rebecca Hall, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Frances McDormand, "Burn After Reading"
X - Meryl Streep, "Mamma Mia!"
Emma Thompson, "Last Chance Harvey"

Yeah, yeah, Golden Globe voters love director Mike Leigh's leading ladies (Brenda Blethyn, "Secrets and Lies") and it's true that Sally Hawkins has a shot here. But if you buy the idea that Globers will give their darling Meryl an award somewhere, here is the logical place. This is where she wowed us with her versatility. "Postcards From the Edge" was so long ago that we'd forgotten she could sing!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Cruise, "Tropic Thunder"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Ralph Fiennes, "The Duchess"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
X - Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"

There's a remote possibility that they'll go for Robert Downey Jr. or Philip Seymour Hoffman, but only remote. This belongs to Heath Ledger, of course.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
X - Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

If you buy the theory (and it does make sense) that voters will want to give "Vicky" something, here's the logical place to reward it — that is, if "Vicky" loses best musical/comedy picture to "Mamma Mia!" Penelope Cruz has several other strong pluses. She romped through early awards from the New York and Los Angeles critics and the National Board of Review. She's foreign — just like voters — and she's the kind of sexy superstar voters adore.

But I think Cruz will be hurt here by the fact that "Vicky" is a comedy and "The Reader" is a gripping drama they want to reward.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
"Bolt"
"Kung Fu Panda"
X - "Wall-E"

No explanation necessary.

The Golden Globes are loading the ceremony with 24-karat presenters who'll dole out awards in 25 categories. Newest celebs announced: Johnny Depp, Mark Wahlberg, Sean Combs, David Duchovny, Megan Fox, Eva Longoria and Sting.

Joining them on NBC on Sunday night (8 to 11 p.m. EST / PST) at the Beverly Hilton will be previously announced presenters Simon Baker, Drew Barrymore, Pierce Brosnan, Sandra Bullock, Gerard Butler, Glenn Close, Sacha Baron Cohen, Cameron Diaz, Aaron Eckhart, Zac Efron, Laurence Fishburne, Ricky Gervais, Jake Gyllenhaal, Salma Hayek, Jonas Brothers, Jessica Lange, Blake Lively, Jennifer Lopez, Hayden Panettiere, Chris Pine, Amy Poehler, Zachary Quinto, Seth Rogen and Martin Scorsese.

Star wattage is also maxed out in the award races, which include more high-profile celeb rivals than ever. Among film stars in competition: Tom Cruise, Clint Eastwood, Penelope Cruz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Kate Winslet, Colin Farrell, James Franco, Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, Javier Bardem, Anne Hathaway, Meryl Streep, Robert Downey Jr. and both halves of Brangelina.

TV nominees includes Steve Carell, Kiefer Sutherland, Alec Baldwin, Tina Fey, Michael C. Hall, Christina Applegate, Jonathan Rhys Myers, Hugh Laurie, America Ferrera, Jon Hamm, Jeremy Piven, Mary-Louise Parker and David Duchovny.

Director/producer Steven Spielberg will receive the special Cecil B. DeMille Award for "outstanding contribution to the entertainment field."

All that helps to make up for last year when the traditional award ceremony had to be nixed due to the Writers Guild strike. The Globes ended up airing a celeb-less press conference program that drew only 5.8 million viewers on NBC, which is less than a third of its usual viewership.

Photo credit: Matt Sayles / Associated Press

Who'll nab bids for the Directors Guild of America awards when noms are unveiled this Thursday, Jan. 8? Below is our first batch of forecasts from these seven notable kudos seers who participate at our Buzzmeter: Gregory Ellwood (HitFix.com), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Nathaniel Rogers (TheFilmExperience), Anne Thompson (Variety.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Three DGA contenders reap unanimous support: Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire"), David Fincher ("Curious Case of Benjamin Button") and Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"). Nabbing six out of seven votes: Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon") and Gus Van Sant ("Milk"). See more DGA predix HERE!