The Emmy slugfest over best drama actor is a true heavyweight bout. There are three key players — Hugh Laurie ("House M.D."), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") and Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") — according to our pundits Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net).

Also check out Rob's and Boomer's (often clashing) predix in these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
2.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
3.  Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("Under My Skin")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")
6.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The drama categories are usually quite difficult to predict, generally because there are usually at least 10 to 15 amazing performances that are in the running for these coveted spots, that, depending on the episode submission, could all be contenders for an Emmy win. This is never more the case than what is typically one of the hottest categories year in year out -- drama lead actor. This year is no exception.

Michael C. Hall plays Dexter as a serial killer with a heart of gold, protecting his girlfriend’s children from a sex offender does make his character more likeable and perhaps less of the, let’s face it, monster that he inherently is. Although he is reliably great in this episode, you can't help but feel that because he is up against such fierce competition, this relatively low-key performance will probably not be enough to propel him over the edge.

Having never seen "The Mentalist" before, I was a little skeptical that this nomination was a bit bogus. However, I was won over by Baker's undeniable appeal in a show that is more entertaining than I initially gave it credit for. That being said, he does come across as a bit of a lightweight in comparison to some of the other heavy hitters in this group. I suspect that a nomination might be enough of a reward for the category rookie this year.

Jon Hamm is the center of gravity on what is probably the best and most lauded show on TV right now. Although very subtle and understated in his performances, he is magnetic when he is on the screen, and is probably not given enough credit for the control he displays in his portrayal of Don Draper. He has enough screen time to warrant at least a small shot at the win, but his overall impact left me wanting a bit more before I could crown him a front-runner in this race.

I suspect that the guys in the top-three group have the best chance at winning. It is no coincidence that all three are given the most do to, tend to show more range, and definitely make more of an impact. Hugh Laurie starts off low-key in his episode, but by the end of it he perfectly portrays the physical and mental suffering of an ill Dr. House. Many voters may also keep in mind that Hugh Laurie is way overdue for an Emmy win, and this year might be the perfect time to do so.

Bryan Cranston is superb in "Breaking Bad." Coming off a win last year, he could easily repeat with this performance, which is mostly understated, with Walt's pain and rage barely noticeable as it bubbles under the surface. And then we get two key scenes that almost seal the deal. The tender, touching scene where he proudly shows his newborn daughter the stash of cash he has hidden for her future is a real winner. And of course, the climactic scene where he stands, frozen, over Jane choking and spluttering to her death while Jesse sleeps next to her in a drug haze. Amazing stuff.

But then I watched Gabriel Byrne’s episode. Although the episode runtime is under 30 minutes, Byrne is practically in every frame, front and center. It's very much like a play, with a huge spotlight on him, where he gets to play against one of the greats in Dianne Weist. There’s anger, frustration, and then the dynamite scene at the end of the episode where he cries over the deathbed of his estranged father. It really is the perfect Emmy submission, and had me in tears. The question here is whether voters can be bothered voting for a show that appears to be dead and buried, and definitely lacks the buzz of those actors in best drama series contenders "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men" and "House."

I am very tempted to go with Bryan Cranston, but have decided to go out on a tiny limb for Gabriel Byrne.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
2.  Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Under My Skin")
3.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")
6.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  For this category, let's start at the bottom of the rankings and work forward. I was incredibly entertained by Simon Baker in his new, highly rated show and am very happy for his nomination. He gives a star-type performance, but it certainly is a quiet one with very little emotion or range (at least in this pilot episode). It even made me want to see the rest of the first season to find out what happens. I don't think he has a prayer of winning with this type of episode, however. 

The episode choice by Michael C. Hall is a strange one since I also didn't think his character had any emotional range (previous selections gave him a much better chance at winning for both "Dexter" and "Six Feet Under"). Jon Hamm portrays one of my favorite characters on television, and his choice of episodes was certainly the best he had available from the second season. Unfortunately, the subdued, extremely private, non-emotional nature of his character doesn't provide much for the Emmy voter to chew over (unless they watch the show regularly and want to reward him as part of a "Mad Men" sweep).

Last year, some of Emmy's savviest gurus believed FX network's "Damages" came close to beating AMC's "Mad Men" for best drama series. Quite a few of them believed it deserved to. As a consolation prize, at least "Damages" star Glenn Close won best actress for portraying dragon attorney Patty Hewes.

Next: Can "Damages" pull off the victory as best drama this year? Much may depend on tonight's Season 2 finale, which airs at 10. Read about its chief Emmy competition here.

Entertainment Weekly is cheering on "Damages," albeit with a few reservations: "Yes, 'Damages' ' sophomore case has been a bit overstuffed, and guilty of a few legal maneuvers that make little constitutional sense. But that hasn't kept the show from being one of the most propulsive, unpredictable series on TV. We can't wait to hear this season's verdicts."

Last year, "Damages" joined "Mad Men" and Showtime's "Dexter" as the first non-HBO cable shows ever nominated for best drama or comedy series. Due to an accounting fluke, there were six nominees in the drama series category. This year there will be at least six — maybe seven — since the Emmys have now officially expanded the number of contenders per race. That means that there's an excellent chance that the dastardly "Damages" will return. For Emmy revenge, hellbent on victory?

Maybe it's wacky to tackle this so early — nominations don't come out till July — but I just invited our gutsy forum posters to start forecasting the next Emmy lineups. So let's add some Gold Derby perspective too.

Nominees for this TV award are a lot like TV reruns. They come back again and again, year after year, but now there's a radical revamp in the voting process that may trigger somewhat different results. Among new series, "The Mentalist" has been a hit but is perhaps too fantastic and eerie for the safe taste of Emmy voters, who usually aren't too welcoming to crime procedurals anyway. Voters often do embrace new HBO series, whatever they are, but a stake may be driven through the Emmy hopes of "True Blood" (which was nominated for best drama at the Golden Globes), considering how that superhit "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" was once so cruelly shunned by the TV academy.

"Kings" gets praise from some TV critics and mixed reviews from others. The L.A. Times calls the modern update of the Old Testament tale of David and Goliath "an interesting muddle of a show," but it's pretentious, so that's a plus with those notorious Emmy snobs. Read this L.A. Times article about a few more dramas premiering in midseason.

In recent years, nominees were selected using a two-stage voting process. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, 10 series and actors in each category (15 in the acting races in 2006) were chosen by academy members using a popular ballot. Then the semifinalists were whittled down to the final nominees after sample TV episodes were screened by judging panels that convened at the TV academy and the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

This year the TV academy just made the terrible decision to kill off the judging panels in an effort to save money. That means we're right back where we started prior to 2006, with lower-rated underdog contenders getting screwed. In other words, Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") might be back this year because he gained stature after winning best drama actor last September, but don't expect other critically hailed work on little-seen, brilliant cable shows to get a fair shot.

However, this new system does make predicting the Emmys much simpler, since pundits need only to focus on the most popular faves. In an effort to help the small fries a bit, the academy has increased the number of nominees in each race to six (sometimes seven), up from the usual five.

Let's start off dishing the battles in the top drama categories for series, actors and actresses. See more noodling and predix in The Envelope's Gold Derby forums.

* = Nominee last year

BEST DRAMA SERIES
(Favorites)
"Boston Legal" *
"Damages" *
"Dexter" *
"House" *
"Lost" *
"Mad Men" * (last year's winner)
"No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency"
"24"

Due to an accounting quirk, there were six nominees in this race last year and five of them will probably be back: "Damages," "Dexter," "House," "Lost" and "Mad Men." "Boston Legal" is vulnerable now that it's saying bye-bye. Past champ "24" (2006) wasn't eligible last year, so there's a good chance it'll nab a bid now that it's jumping back into the derby. "The Tudors" made the top 10 rundown last year and "Big Love" in 2006, so they could make the next top six or seven. "In Treatment" didn't make the 2008 semifinalist list, but it could be buoyed now by its two Emmy victories last September for best supporting actress (Dianne Wiest) and guest star (Glynn Turman). Maybe in an alternate universe the critically praised "Battlestar Galactica" might have a shot. What about "Dollhouse"?

A few of our forum posters think past champ "ER" has a shot since it's experiencing a comeback in its final season. Among new series, HBO's "No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency" hasn't premiered yet, but reviews from U.K. where it aired last week are strong. "The Mentalist" is a relative ratings success, "True Blood" was nominated at the Golden Globes, and "Kings" reigns among some TV critics.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" *
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" * (winner)
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" *
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" *
Hugh Laurie, "House" *
James Spader, "Boston Legal" *
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"

Past champ Kiefer Sutherland will be back because "24" has been much missed. Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy") made the top 10 runoff last year, so that tells us they have a strong base of popular support. Jonathan Rhys-Myers ("The Tudors") didn't make the runoff in 2008, but he may soon be forgiven for weighing 300 pounds less than the real King Henry VIII and being infinitely more pretty. Bill Paxton ("Big Love") made the run-offs a few years ago, but not since. This year's newbies who might break through include Ian McShane ("Kings"), who was nominated in this Emmy race for "Deadwood" in 2006,  Patrick Swayze ("The Beast") and Simon Baker ("The Mentalist").

About a month ago, The Envelope did a live web chat session with "Damages" star Glenn Close, nominee for best actress in a drama series. It took ages rounding up the transcript, but today seems like a good time to share it at last, just hours before the Emmy race ends.

Glenn Close: Hi Everyone from Glenn in New York

Tom O'Neil: hi glenn. thanx for joining us

babypook: hi Ms Close!

kyrie: hey glenn!

Tom O'Neil: Let's start with this question -- what's it like playing a DASTARDLY VILLAIN on "Damages"?

Glenn Close: You must be thinking of Ted Danson.

Tom O'Neil: haaaaaa! your role is certainly ruthless and tough, eh? There are some heroic things about this character, but let's get your view of her

bc: I love Sam Malone.

Glenn Close: Well, you know I never think of my character as a dastardly villain. Ruthless and tough! Would you say that if the head of Hewes and Associates were a man?

Tom O'Neil: Good point, but, actually, yeah, I'd say he was dastardly too

Glenn Close: I think Patty has come up the hard way in a profession that still is largely run by men.

kyrie: she got ya there

Tom O'Neil: ouch, yes, she did

GiveGlennanOscar: yes! there is a double standard

Glenn Close: Even though there is a huge entertainment quotient in the character of Patty, I am very psyched to play a woman who is unapologetic about her power and success.

Ginny: i think it's compelling because it's unlike most shows that are entirely predictable.

Tom O'Neil: Let's put it this way, Patty's no Margarethe Cammermeyer --- not as purely heroic like that. Often when you perform a role you want and expect the audience to love you -- Patty doesn't exactly inspire warm fuzzies

Ginny: but can you be warm and fuzzy as a defense attorney?

Glenn Close: I think it is human nature to be warm and fuzzy sometimes. For Patty it might be in very private moments.

GiveGlennanOscar: Glenn- How did you find out you had won the Golden Globe this year for Damages? Its a shame the TV ceremony was canceled so we couldn't hear your speech!

Glenn Close: I actually found out in a bar in NYC down in the meatpacking district with all the cast and crew of "Damages."

Glenn Close: For me it is always stressful figuring out what to wear to an event like the Golden Globes, so I was really happy to be in my blue jeans.

Rob L: Damages was my #1 show of the past TV season. Congratulations Glenn on a wonderful show and dynamite performance.

Kams: When you were making "Damages" did you know all the details about your character, Patty Hewes? If no, how hard it was to compose this character?

Glenn Close: I still do not know some details about my character. That is what is fascinating and challenging about doing a series.

Tom O'Neil: Damages is part of the new trend toward serialized stories on TV -- like Sopranos and 24 -- they're chancy because these shows are hard to join midway through. What do you think of their growing popularity?

Glenn Close: I think this trend of serialized shows is leading to some of the best writing that has ever come out of this country.

Glenn Close: I think it is challenging the traditional financial landscape of Hollywood because people tend to TiVo these shows, and people love to watch the whole season in one long gluttoneous session.

babypook: some of the very best television programs have been serialized

Glenn Close: But it is like living a novel and I think it is a bone-fide art form that hopefully will only get more important.

Rob L: Glenn, was the script for each episode hard to follow (and figure out what was happening to these characters) because the story was told in a very non-linear way?

Glenn Close: From episode to episode I had to make sure of what I knew and what everyone else knew and frequently had to get a writer to come and put me in the right context because it was written in that style and it was sometimes hard to remember everything.

Tom O'Neil: Hi Glenn, I'm at the Associated Press office in L.A. right now and a journalist here asked me to ask you this question: how much drama went on behind the scenes as you waited to hear the news if 'Damages' would be picked up another season?

Glenn Close: I wasn't in on all the back-room goings on as people were negotiating how to renew the show. I heard frequently that everyone was "cautiously optomistic" which wasn't very reassuring.

Glenn Close: I know that its strength in international sales probably helped a lot. And to have it renewed for not only one but two years was highly unusual so needless to say, our whole team was extremely gratified when we finally heard the news.

Kams: How it was to work with Rose Byrne? She is young, but very talented and your scenes together were simply AMAZING!

Rob L: Yeah, what was it like working with the great (Aussie) Rose Byrne?

taloson: is she really Australian? Wow, her accent never showed once

Glenn Close: Rose Byrne is an absolutely enchanting human being. Funny, quirky, very talented, very smart. It was wonderful working with her and witnessing her getting stronger and stronger playing Ellen.

Rob L: Thanks for that Glenn. I'm a big fan of hers. Oz is very proud of her.

Glenn Close: And she IS really Australian. And she has a strong Aussie accent when she's not acting.

Rob L: I know! She is very popular here in Oz. It's one of the reasons that it aired in primetime NETWORK tv here.

Rob L: Emmys for Rose Byrne and Glenn Close please.

taloson: and she definitely held her own against the greatness that is Glenn Close!

Kams: In my opinion, when Patty Hewes tell Ellen to "trust no one" is the moment of the season. This phrase summons up "Damages". It's a warning to us all, as a viewers.

Glenn Close: I think Rose came in naive and shall we say has been tempered by reality. I actually think it is a little of both gaining strength and awareness and learning how to manipulate.

That's the big drama looming over TV's top award this weekend as Sunday's Emmycast looms.

Remember, this year AMC's "Mad Men" and FX's "Damages" became the first basic cable shows ever nominated for best series and, if one of them wins — which is not only possible, but predicted by the overwhelming number of our top Emmy gurus (CLICK HERE) — the victory will trigger a seismic quake in Hollywood's TV industry. A win as best drama by Showtime's "Dexter" would be earth-shattering too, since it joins "Mad Men" and "Damages" as the first non-HBO cable shows to reap a top series bid.

The Emmy has always been a broadcast-network-biased award. The TV academy represents the industry's establishment, which has been reluctant to acknowledge the boom in cable TV creativity appreciated by millions of tube viewers. Cable TV wasn't even permitted to compete at the Emmys till 1987, which necessitated the creation of the Cable ACE Awards in 1979. (They eventually folded in 1998.) But only HBO has prospered at the Emmys since then, which is largely due to the millions of dollars it spends, shrewdly, to woo voters. That's a good thing — it's encouraged other cable channels to get aggressive about campaigning too. But even so, only three times have HBO shows won best comedy or drama series: "Sex and the City" (2001) and "The Sopranos" (2004, 2007). The first time any cable show was nominated in one of those categories was 1993 ("The Larry Sanders Show").

To help illustrate this behind-the-tinsel drama for you, I've compiled this time line on how cable has fared. Read through it and you'll understand how high the stakes are on Sunday night.

1965 — Charles Dolan launches cable TV delivered via underground wire in Manhattan because the skyscrapers block regular TV waves. By 1972, it evolves into HBO with Time Warner as partner. Showtime is launched in 1976, CNN and Cinemax in 1980, MTV in 1981.

1979 — Cable ACE Awards launch after Emmys continue to refuse to recognize cable programming.

1985 — TV academy Board of Governors votes to permit cable TV shows to compete in the future, but not until 1987.

1986 — Fox Network launched.

1987 — Fox Network pays $4.5 million for a three-year deal to telecast the Emmys, seizing the rights away from ABC, CBS and NBC, which had been airing the awards ceremony on a rotating "wheel deal," paying the TV academy $875,000 per year in a license fee. While Fox is a broadcast network like the others, its emergence is a serious challenge to the entrenched TV establishment.

1987-88 — Cable TV's first year of Emmy eligibility. Cable receives 15 out of 337 nominations and ends up with two awards, both for HBO's "Dear America: Letters Home from Vietnam," which is voted best informational special.

1989 — Cable wins only four lowly awards. First big Emmy wins for Fox network ("The Tracey Ullman Show").

1990 — Cable wins 10 Emmys — 8 for HBO, including first top award for acting: Hume Cronyn, "Age Old Friends" (best actor in a miniseries, movie or special). Costar Vincent Gardenia wins supporting actor.

1990-1991 — Cable scores 40 of the year's 328 nominations, including 12 for HBO's "The Josephine Baker Story," which wins five, including best actress for Lynn Whitfield. It loses best miniseries/movie to NBC's "Separate But Equal." Two other cable wins are reaped (for a total of seven), including best supporting actor in a mini/movie for James Earl Jones in TNT's "Heat Wave." Disney Channel wins best music direction.

1992 — Disney Channel becomes the first pay cable network other than HBO (today Disney is a free basic-cable channel) to win a top Emmy: best drama series actor (Christopher Lloyd, "Road to Avonlea"). Disney Channel also wins best children's program ("Mark Twain and Me"). HBO also wins best variety special ("Cirque du Soleil II: A New Experience"). TNT wins best informational special ("MGM: When the Lion Roared").

1993 — HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show" becomes the first cable show ever nominated for best series (comedy), scoring eight nominations and losing them all. HBO ties ABC for 55 nominations. HBO wins 17, the most of any network (NBC comes in second place with 16), including best movie/mini (tie between HBO's "Stalin" and "Barbarians at the Gate") and actress (Holly Hunter, "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom"). All cable networks reap 76 bids — 21% of total. Lifetime scores first win (Mary Tyler Moore, best supporting actress in a movie/mini, "Stolen Babies"). After spending six years on the Fox network, the Emmys return to another broadcast channel (ABC).

1994 — All cable networks reap 63 noms — 18% of total. HBO drops to 34 noms, but wins best TV movie/mini ("And the Band Played On").

1995 — Cable shows win a record 20 Emmys. TNT's "Joseph" wins best mini. HBO continues its dominance of the award for best movie ("Indictment: The McMartin Trial"), which will continue in the future.

1996 — Cable programs claim 125 nominations (one third of total). Win 26.

1997 — HBO takes second-highest tally of noms (90) behind NBC (92). Cable shows win 28 Emmys compared to 51 for broadcast networks.

Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.

But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.

It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.

TEAM TV JOURNOS: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Aaron Barnhart (Kansas City Star), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Melissa Grego (Broadcasting and Cable), Richard Huff (New York Daily News), John Kubicek (BuddyTV), Lisa de Moraes (Washington Post), Kristin Dos Santos (E! Online — CLICK HERE for expanded Emmy predix), Maggie Furlong (AOL Television), Michele Greppi (TV Week), Matt Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan (Chicago Tribune), Michael Starr (New York Post), David Zurawik (Baltimore Sun).

TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"Damages" — Beachum
"Dexter" — Huff
"House"
"Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
"Two and a Half Men" — Greppi

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik
Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan
James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett
(NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos,
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan
Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria
William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch

BEST REALITY HOST
Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik
Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum
Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond
Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria
Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
"American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch
"Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond
"Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan
"Top Chef"

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
"The Colbert Report"
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
"Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff
"Real Time With Bill Maher"
"Saturday Night Live" — Licuria

BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE
"Bernard and Doris" — Greppi
"Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch
"The Memory Keeper's Daughter"
"A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett
"Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

In Emmy's supporting-acting categories, judges view one sample episode of each contender that is edited down to eliminate scenes that do not feature the nominee. Our Emmy guru Chris "Boomer" Beachum has now viewed all submissions in the drama-actor contest and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) has seen nearly all, so they're ready to do their predix battle.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You")
2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come")
3. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People")
4. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker")
5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This is a really, really tight race between William Shatner and Michael Emerson. Both have showcase episodes built around their characters and seize the opportunity with excellent performances. In addition to some nice action scenes, Emerson gets two powerful scenes in his episode (witnessing the murder of his daughter and then a revenge showdown with his nemesis at the end). Shatner is as ham-bone as ever in his episode, but he gets some terrific courtroom scenes that are both comedic and dramatic, plus this is probably his best submission yet in terms of screen time, plot and range.

I am giving the slight edge to Shatner since his episode seems to be a little more accessible to non-viewers of the show and has the viewer pulling for him at the end.

As for the others, Ivanek gave a career-enhancing performance over the course of the season but has zero range in this particular episode with his low-key, depressed character.  Danson was also incredibly villainous over the entire season but was barely even in this episode. Slattery brilliantly plays a real cad, but I just can't believe the voters will choose him after seeing his character ride a young woman like a horse.  His final scene in the hospital is a real winner, though.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" ("I Hate These People")
2. Michael Emerson, "Lost" ("The Shape of Things to Come")
3. Ted Danson, "Damages" ("Jesus, Mary and Joe Cocker")
4. William Shatner, "Boston Legal" ("Mad About You")
5. John Slattery, "Mad Men" ("Long Weekend")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I don't buy that William Shatner is the front-runner in this category. I think that maybe Denny Crane's time in the Emmy spotlight might be over.

It's interesting to see that our two shrewdest Emmy gurus — our forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — don't agree on what series will win best drama.

They both rank the same shows in their top two, but Rob picks "Mad Men" and Boomer opts for "Damages."

These are just early, preliminary predix, by the way. Despite what Rob asserts below, they might change later after we learn what sample episodes were submitted to judges in what pairings. A total of six are entered by each series, grouped into three pairs that are distributed randomly to voters.

Frankly, I'm not convinced that Rob or Boomer are correct here.

Yes, those shows seem like the Emmy front-runners just based upon buzz and The Cool Factor. But as Boomer acknowledges in his commentary, "Mad Men" "can seem slow and plodding to the uninitiated." "Damages" is much more intense, fast-moving and action-packed, but, like "Mad Men," it's a serialized drama and one that requires voters to know much more about its back story than "Mad Men." If voters aren't regular viewers of "Mad Men" — and, surprisingly, many Emmy voters aren't regular viewers of various hot shows — they can probably still appreciate much of what they see in, let's say, a mid-season episode, but what response can we expect if you throw episode no. 5 or 8 of "Damages" at the uninitiated? Yikes!

"Lost" is one of the few serialized dramas that managed to win in its first year (2005). Let's recall that megahits "The Sopranos" and "24" didn't prevail until later. When "Lost" failed to be nominated in 2006 and 2007, that revealed a lot. Both times producers submitted episodes that didn't have a self-contained story. The upshot was clear: judges didn't vote for "Lost" because they didn't understand what was going on. That was validated this year when producers made a special point of submitting an episode (just one gets viewed by the nominating committee during that early round of voting) with a self-contained story and it made it back in the derby.

"Mad Men" and "Damages" have fewer viewers than "The Sopranos" and "24" had in their first years when they failed to win best drama series. So that's another strike against those shows.

Rob and Boomer have "Boston Legal" in their third position, but I think they're crazy. Ever since at-home voting replaced judging panels to determine winners in 2000, programs have needed a certain Cool Factor to prevail. I think it's the only show on this list that can't win.

And I believe that the previous two loses by "House M.D." suggest that it's probably out of contention too.

But I believe that "Lost" and "Dexter" — ranked in the bottom three by both of our gurus — have a real chance to win.

But enough of what I think. Let's toss off to how they've sized up this contest. First, Rob's ranking.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: ROB'S RANKING
1. "Mad Men"
2. "Damages"
3. "Boston Legal"
4. "Lost"
5. "House"
6. "Dexter"

QUICK EARLY CALL: Without having viewed the official submitted episodes, I would say that this is "Mad Men's" year. With more positive reviews than viewers, especially in the last few weeks (for the currently airing second season), this show is once again fresh in the minds of voters. It has the most nominations, the buzz, the excitement, "Sopranos" alumni at the helm, and it's the "Year of Basic Cable."

If any show can upset, it's "Damages," with a stellar pilot episode that I'm sure will be submitted and which will wow voters. Any other winner (apart from a shock "Lost" or "Dexter" win) would be met with an avalanche of criticism that ATAS would likely wish to avoid. Look to "Mad Men" and "Damages" sweeping the main categories this year. I doubt I'll be changing my pick in this category. Take this one to the bank.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: BOOMER'S RANKING
1. "Damages"
2. "Mad Men"
3. "Boston Legal"
4. "House"
5. "Lost"
6. "Dexter"

QUICK EARLY CALL: This is an extremely tough category to predict!  I will rule out "Lost" and "Dexter" since there has only been one drama series ("The Practice") to win in the past 25+ years without at least a directing or writing nomination.

Considering that "Mad Men" and "Damages" made Emmy history this year by becoming the first basic-cable TV shows ever nominated for best series (comedy or drama), let's take a look back at what happened the first time any cable series pulled this off.

It was 1993 when HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show" nabbed eight nominations, including one for best comedy series. It was pitted against the previous year's winner, "Murphy Brown," "Cheers," "Home Improvement" and "Seinfeld."

"The Larry Sanders Show" was a bizarre expose of late-night TV talk shows that didn't bother with such niceties as heroic characters. Sanders, played by Garry Shandling, was a egotistical, neurotic jerk. And the TV series didn't bother with using the typical sitcom format either. Stories were told with awkward realism (similar to "The Office" today) and absurdist twists.

"The Larry Sanders Show" was so weird that, frankly, it wasn't a serious chance to win best comedy series in 1993. That Emmy battle seemed to be between "Cheers" and "Seinfeld."

"Cheers" was considered the sentimental fave because it was a longtime Emmy darling that just left the airwaves four months earlier. Ninety-three million Americans had tuned in to watch the final episode that aired in May. "Cheers" had won 26 Emmys since it premiered in 1982, so it needed to convert four of its eight nominations to beat "The Mary Tyler Moore Show's" record for having the most Emmys (29).

But when sizing up the race for best comedy, "Cheers" co-creator James Burrows admitted, "The show to beat this year is 'Seinfeld.' "

"Seinfeld" had been nominated the previous year and lost to "Murphy Brown." Indeed, it had been on TV since 1990, but its fan base built slowly. Finally, by 1993, it peaked and "Seinfeld" entered the 1993 Emmys with the most nominations (11).

And the winner was . . . "Seinfeld." Accepting the trophy, Jerry Seinfeld thanked "my partner and the greatest comedy writer in the world, Larry David."

Larry David won the Emmy for best comedy writing for his notorious episode about masturbation titled "The Contest." It beat two episodes of "The Larry Sanders Show" (pilot and "The Spider Episode"). Upon winning, Larry David gave one of the most memorable Emmy acceptances ever: "This is all very well and good, but I'm still bald."

"Seinfeld" also won an Emmy for Michael Richards as best supporting actor.

"Cheers" ended up winning only two trophies: multi-camera editing and best actor (Ted Danson), thus failing to surpass "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" record. Final score: "MTM Show" 29, "Cheers" 28.