Let this be a lesson to all of us smug Oscar seers who insist that they know how the current derby will play out. Most of us now say that it's "The Social Network" versus "The King's Speech" for best picture, Colin Firth ("The King's Speech") versus James Franco ("127 Hours") for lead actor and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") versus Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") for lead actress. But true?

One year ago today, we weren't even talking about the eventual winners of lead actor and actress: Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") and Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side").

BEST PICTURE: Last year in mid-October we had a decent grasp of the best picture race in terms of leading contenders, but nearly all Oscarologists were betting on "Up in the Air." Just weeks earlier "Precious" had the most buzz. Expectations were building for "Avatar" but also for "Nine," "Invictus" and "The Lovely Bones." "Bright Star," which had already been seen, still shone brightly. Ditto: "An Education," "Up," "A Serious Man," "Julie & Julia," even "District 9." A surge was building for "Inglourious Basterds." "The Hurt Locker" was among top rivals, but it hadn't made its surge to the head of the pack. 

LEAD ACTOR: Fox Searchlight had not announced that "Crazy Heart" was about to ambush this contest, so all eyes were on George Clooney ("Up in the Air") as lead pony. Matt Damon ("The Informant") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("Nine") seemed like good bets for bids. Other top rivals: Colin Firth ("A Single Man"), Jeremy Renner ("The Hurt Locker"), Tobey Maguire ("Brothers"), Viggo Mortensen ("The Road"), Morgan Freeman ("Invictus"), Sharlto Copley ("District 9"), Robert Downey Jr. ("Sherlock Holmes"), Robert DeNiro ("Everybody's Fine"), Mark Wahlberg ("The Lovely Bones"), Peter Sarsgaard ("An Education"). Final nominees turned out to be Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman and Renner.

This year's Oscars numbered only one foreign-born winner -- Austria's Christoph Waltz ("Inglorious Basterds") -- among the four acting champs. However, that does not mean the Oscars are guilty of any homegrown bias. After all, six of the 20 acting nominees were from other countries, including "Nine" supporting actress contender Penelope Cruz, who is from Spain. She won that same category last year for her performance in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona."

Indeed, at last year's Oscars, Cruz was one of just three foreign-born folk among the acting nominees but they all won, including lead actress Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and supporting actor Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight"). Winslet was the latest of 37 English actors to win Oscars, Ledger was the sixth champ from Down Under and Cruz was the second winner in a row for Spain.

Two years ago, all four acting winners came from foreign shores: Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton") from England, Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") -- who made Oscars history by giving the first French-language performance to be so honored -- from France, and Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), who was the first Spanish performer to win an Oscar.

That marked the second time in Oscars history that all four acting champs hailed from outside the United States. The first was back in 1964 when the winners were three Brits -- Rex Harrison ("My Fair Lady"), Julie Andrews ("Mary Poppins"), and Peter Ustinov ("Topkapi") -- and Russian born Lila Kedrova ("Zorba the Greek").

The Oscars rolled out the welcome mat at the very first ceremony in 1929 when Swiss-born Emil Jannings won lead actor for his performances in "The Last Command" and "The Way of All Flesh." And three of the first four lead actresses came from Canada -- Mary Pickford ("Coquette"), Norma Shearer ("The Divorcee"), and Marie Dressler ("Min and Bill").

One of our most prolific forum posters, the aptly named Academy Awards Guru, has compiled a list of the nationalities of all 273 Oscar winners for acting. During the course of 82 ceremonies, they have won 314 Oscars (there has been one tie in each of lead actor and lead actress). Of these, 81 winners came from outside the U.S. to take home 91 Oscars. While 22 other countries have produced Oscar winners, it is not surprising that England leads with 37 of her citizens winning 43 Oscars.

Over the last 82 years at the Oscars, lead actor has gone to a non-American 24 times and lead actress 26 times while in the 73-year history of the supporting awards, non-Americans won supporting actor 22 times and supporting actress 19 times.

In the following list, the Oscar-winning performers are listed under the country with which they are most associated and their birthplace is given when it differs. In addition, those actors who were born elsewhere but raised primarily in the U.S. are not included, such as Elizabeth Taylor, born in England, Claudette Colbert in France, sisters Joan Fontaine and Olivia DeHavilland in Japan, Anthony Quinn in Mexico, and Paul Muni in the Ukraine.

Australia
Cate Blanchett
Russell Crowe (born in New Zealand; family emigrated when he was 4)
Peter Finch (born in England; family returned to Australia when he was 7)
Nicole Kidman (born in the U.S.; family returned to Australia when she was 4)
Heath Ledger
Geoffrey Rush

Our forum posters have been just as busy as the pro pundits when it comes to predicting the top Oscar races. They have already weighed in on best picture (a tossup between "Avatar" and "Up in the Air) and best actress (Meryl Streep to win for "Julie and Julia") and now turn to the best actor race. Five of our six forum posters -- Atypical, Bocaboy7, Dr. McPhearson, Kams, and seanflynn -- predict Jeff Bridges to finally prevail at the Oscars for "Crazy Heart," his fifth bid  The sixth -- Pacinofan -- thinks George Clooney will win his second Oscar for "Up in the Air," while the rest have him in second place. Contenders are ranked according to their likelihood of winning.

Photo: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart." Credit: Fox Searchlight

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Already our savvy forum moderators gave us their gutsy Oscars predix for best picture and lead actress. Now these pundits come out swinging over the lead actors' slugfest: Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Matthew "Boidiva02" Cormier, Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch, Robert "Rob L" Licuria, Andrew "andrew" Pickett and Paul Sheehan. Read the reax of our regular forum posters here.

Personally, my own picks are Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, Colin Firth and Viggo Mortensen. I'd like to add Freeman to my lineup too, but I have a hunch that it's probably an emotionally reserved role, like Nelson Mandela in real life, and maybe even a supporting one. I have a sneaky suspicion that Warner Bros. is pushing Freeman in the lead category for "Invictus" so he doesn't compete against costar Matt Damon, who is being shoved down to supporting so that he doesn't compete against his rival lead performance in Warner Bros.'s "The Informant!" Just a suspicion. No proof — yet. But this Damon setup looks a lot like the same mess involving Leonardo DiCaprio caught between clashing Warner Bros. films "The Departed" and "Blood Diamond."

Photos from left: Morgan Freeman in "Invictus" (Warner Bros.), Colin Firth in "A Single Man" (Weinstein Co.), George Clooney in "Up in the Air" (Paramount)

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With his win for "Milk," Sean Penn became the ninth man to have matching lead actor Oscar bookends, having earned his first in 2003 for "Mystic River." While Penn only had to wait five years to win that second Oscar, last year's champ Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") didn't gain entry to this exclusive club until 18 years after winning his first Oscar in 1989 for "My Left Foot."

The first seven actors to pull off this impressive feat were:

Spencer Tracy ("Captains Courageous" 1937; "Boys Town" 1938);

Fredric March ("Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" 1932; "The Best Years of Our Lives" 1946);

Gary Cooper ("Sergeant York" 1941; "High Noon" 1952);

Marlon Brando ("On the Waterfront" 1954; "The Godfather" 1972);

Dustin Hoffman ("Kramer v. Kramer" 1979; "Rain Man" 1988);

Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia" 1993; "Forrest Gump" 1994); and

Jack Nicholson ("One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" 1975; "As Good As It Gets" 1997).

Eleven women — Luise Rainer, Bette Davis, Olivia de Havilland, Vivien Leigh, Ingrid Bergman, Elizabeth Taylor, Glenda Jackson, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, Jodie Foster, and Hilary Swank — each have two lead actress Oscars. And then there is Katharine Hepburn who reigns supreme with a staggering four lead actress Oscars.

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Don't get carried away with all of the Oscar buzz for Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" that you see in USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, everywhere. Remember: Only one star has won an Oscar from the grave (Peter Finch, "Network") and roles like the Joker are rarely even nominated.

Maybe this next Oscars factoid may help to put things in more clear perspective. After the beloved Spencer Tracy died in 1967 after giving a dynamic, heartfelt performance in best picture nominee "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner," he was widely expected to win best actor, but lost to Rod Steiger ("In the Heat of the Night"). However, Tracy's de facto widow Katharine Hepburn won best actress for a rather tame turn with little screen time in "Dinner."

Bottom line: Oscar voters wanted to bestow a hug after losing Tracy, yes — but they just didn't want to hug the dead guy.

When Peter Finch passed away, the situation was very different from Tracy's and Ledger's. The latter stars died more than six months before the Oscarcast. Finch died from a heart attack just two weeks before the Golden Globes while he was actively campaigning to stop that juggernaut Robert DeNiro ("Taxi Driver"), who'd swept the film-critics' awards. Oscar and Globe voters were still stunned by Finch's loss when they inked their ballots and they couldn't resist checking off his name.

Heath Ledger bears a striking similarity to James Dean. Both were heartthrob thespians whose promising careers were cut short by tragedy.  Dean had two posthumous Oscar nominations. The first — for "East of Eden" — came nearly half a year after Dean died in a car wreck. The next year he was nommed for "Giant" and he lost both times.

When Oscar nominations come out next January, Heath Ledger will have been dead for a year. Given all of the Oscar hubbub he's generating now, I'm sure he'll be on that list of contenders, but can he really win?

Oscar voters aren't wild about campy villain roles in popcorn flicks like "Dark Knight." The only time one got nominated was Al Pacino as Big Boy Caprice in "Dick Tracy" (1990). Jack Nicholson's widely celebrated Joker in "Batman" (1989) — the same role now played by Heath Ledger — was nominated for a Golden Globe, but not an Oscar, which is odd considering how nuts academy members are for Jack. (Nicholson holds the records for most nominations and wins among male actors.)

And Oscar voters don't usually like villainous roles unless the actor rides to victory atop a best-picture sweep like Anthony Hopkins in "The Silence of the Lambs."

But — wait — that old trend may be changing. Just this past year we saw the trophies for best actor and supporting actor go to stars portraying bloodthirsty monsters: Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem.

And maybe the whole world, even Hollywood, is different today than it was when those other posthumous Oscar examples occurred. If so, then maybe this joker can get the last laugh. Especially if he holds an ole Oscar I.O.U. from academy members. Does he? (READ MORE, CLICK HERE ). If he does have a serious hope of prevailing, then which category should he enter, lead or supporting? Read more about that great debate — CLICK HERE!

(Warner Bros.)

As usual, the MTV Movie Awards' nominations slapped recent Oscar champs. The academy's winners of best picture ("No Country for Old Men"), best actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and actress (Marion Cotillard) aren't nommed in corresponding categories, but — horrors! — Day-Lewis isn't even in the race for best villain! Hey, aren't MTV execs worried at all about him swinging that bowling pin in revenge?

Other shocking snubs include these from MTV's best-pic race: "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Ratatouille" and "Knocked Up" (apparently, there's room only for one Judd Apatow flick and that's "Superbad," which has 3 noms).

We were waaaaay off predicting the best-kiss lineup. It's likely that the MTV kiddies didn't see "Atonement" (too uppity for gum-snappers) so they didn't know about Keira Knightley's lusty lip lock with James McAvoy. And maybe we were wrong to suggest that Adam Sandler and Kevin James might be listed for "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry." They don't really smooch, but do get close and punch each other with obvious affection right after they say "I do!"

Missing from the list of best breakthrough performance of the year was easily the biggest: "Juno" star Ellen Page. Also Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Amy Adams ("Enchanted"). What about Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement")? Will they only notice her next year when she appears in Peter Jackson's "The Lovely Bones"?

And, hey, where was the whole category for best on-screen duo? Why was it dropped this year all of a sudden? When I asked a rep for MTV, she responded, "We change up the categories from time to time. :)"

See reax in our forums, CLICK HERE! See the full list of nominees and cast your vote at the MTV Movie Awards site - CLICK HERE

Soon the nominations will be announced for the MTV Movie Awards, which take place in L.A. on June 1. Two categories are of keenest interest, of course: best villain and smoochers!

The villains' slugfest will be a delightfully dastardly smackdown between those Oscar-grabbing devils Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"). Hmmm . . . I sure hope we see that played out on stage with Javier thrusting that cattle gun at Daniel while Daniel smacks his skull with a bowling pin. Can you think of any scene that would better sum up — in so many enlightening ways — what the whole recent Oscar derby was all about?

Oh, yes! Wait! If Johnny Depp leapt into the fray wielding his Sweeney razor at their throats! Oh, what fun!

And what about the award for best kiss? — you ask, panting frantically.

Of course, voters will go for some man-on-man action there too. Remember, the last two winners of that category were nefarious participants in boy-boy nookie: Will Ferrell and Sacha Baron Cohen locking lips ("Talladega Nights") and Jake Gyllenhaal planting a big wet one on Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain"). So that means — gawd help us all — we can expect a nauseating nom for Adam Sandler and Kevin James in a pic recently robbed at the Razzies (eight bids and not a single "win"!) — "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry."

Our forum posters are buzzing with their opinions of other likely contenders: James McAvoy and Keira Knightley ("Atonement"), Amy Adams and Patrick Dempsey ("Enchanted") and Jenna Fischer and John C. Reilly ("Walk Hard"). CLICK HERE to spy on MORE of their views. Check out the MTV Movie Awards website HERE.

(Photos: MTV, Disney, Universal, Focus Features)

I'm getting sick and tired of beating up on this topic, but since it just reared its ugly head again in a ridiculous Hollywood Reporter article about Oscar strategy that contradicts itself, I can't resist wailing away one more time.

Can we finally bury, once and for all, the absurd myth that it's a terrible thing to be out front early in the derby?

That's the notion uninformed Oscar pundits keep touting to explain why "Brokeback Mountain," "Dreamgirls" and other early faves trip up. But timing seldom has anything to do with those tumbles. Now the Hollywood Reporter suggests that being the early front-runner was one of the key factors in Julie Christie's recent loss — that plus aggressive late campaigning by Marion Cotillard.

"Avoid looking invincible," the Reporter warns future contenders. "Julie Christie looked unbeatable for best actress, but Marion Cotillard spent weeks working the Los Angeles awards circuit while Christie stayed home. Oscar voters rewarded the Frenchwoman."

That's not why Cotillard won. But more on that in a minute.

Now here comes the real howler in the HR article.

"Cannes is back," it declares. "Conventional thinking — and the dashed hopes of 'Dreamgirls' in 2006 — had strategists thinking that you can't start a campaign at the festival and keep it going for months. But 2007 Croisette darling 'No Country for Old Men' proved that with the right campaign it can be done."

So let me grasp this correctly: "Dreamgirls" disappointed at the Oscars because early hype built up too soon at Cannes in May 2006, but "No Country" managed to defy that issue last year because someone, mysteriously, someplace, had decreed that "Cannes is back" now?

Who decided this? Where did Cannes go in the interim? Oh, this is pure Oscar poppycock! Enough!

This year,"No Country" got out front early in the derby and stayed there because that's what most winners do — just like other recent best-pic champs "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "Titanic" and "American Beauty." Heck, it's so hard for early front-runners to stumble that "A Beautiful Mind" managed to prevail despite being under siege by major media for sugar-coating the real-life story of its flawed hero. (There was no "smear campaign," but let's not go into that again.)

While best actress Marion Cotillard makes headlines with her controversial political views, will she be back in the derby again for her upcoming turn as '30s torch singer Billie Frechette opposite Johnny Depp's John Dillinger in Michael Mann's "Public Enemies?" And who else among this year's Oscar winners could feature in next year's race?

Lou Lumenick reports that the Coen brothers' follow-up film, "Burn After Reading," may well unspool at Cannes in mid-May. The Croisette certainly brought the duo good luck last spring as the rapturous response for "No Country for Old Men" launched it into the awards race. And, as Lou writes, "we wouldn't be surprised if it has a date at the New York Film Festival." As faithful readers will recall, scenes were shot in my Gotham neighborhood last fall –- CLICK HERE

The screwball comedy stars "Michael Clayton" adversaries George Clooney and Oscar-winner Tilda Swinton as illicit lovers cuckolding John Malkovich, a rogue CIA agent intent on publishing his memoirs. The film also features Mrs. Joel Coen, a.k.a. Frances McDormand and Brad Pitt . Focus Features will release "Burn" on Sept. 12. Those Vultures over at New York mag offered a sneak peek at the script last year - HERE.

It is no surprise that Daniel Day-Lewis does not have any film work lined up. After all, "There Will Be Blood" was only his third movie in a decade. While he sits on the sidelines, Javier Bardem has wrapped up a Woody Allen comedy, "Vicky Christina Barcelona," in his native Spain and is waiting for production to begin on "Nine," another tuner adaptation from "Chicago" helmer Rob Marshall.

First, Miley Cyrus. Now The Rock. Well, I guess if Goldie Hawn can win an Oscar, anything's possible, eh?

"I had a chance to present an Oscar on Sunday and I was asked if I'd like to win one myself," Dwayne Johnson told the London Times. "And sure, of course, it's every actor's dream."

Perhaps he believes he'll be nominated next year for his role as a marooned spaceship captain dodging aliens in upcoming "Planet 51"? Hey, quit laughing! Goldie won for a comedy!

Or maybe for his upcoming actioner "Race to Witch Mountain"? In that case, he might tap the paranormal powers of his character to make golden things happen. Rock on!

Frankly, if he wants one that bad, his best move might've been to wrestle one away from Daniel Day-Lewis or Javier Bardem last Sunday. Being a true gent, I don't think the former WCW World Heavyweight Champion would've muscled one of the gals.

"There's no way Daniel Day-Lewis won't win," George Clooney told The Envelope during a video interview at the Oscar nominee luncheon and recently insisted to Time. That's what all the pundits (save one cliff-jumper) believe, but I remind you that he also predicted he'd lose in the supporting slot when up against Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man"). And all of the pundits have been wrong before, like they were the last time they insisted that Daniel Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York") would win for a different sinister role after he swept the precursor awards.

However, jawdroppers happen all the time at the Oscars. (Remember when the wrong Richard — Dreyfuss — beat Burton?) If they didn't, we bloggers would be out of biz and the Oscars no fun to watch.

The reason that the shockeroos occur is because Hollywooders are a bull-headed, contrary-minded lot and often they don't tip their cards. They also don't like to admit that they're going against the pack — everybody's got to be a team player, after all — but, alone at home where no one is looking and with sly smirks on their faces, they fool Oscarwatchers now and then by checking off their ballots for Marcia Gay Harden or Juliette Binoche. 

I think there's a fascinating hint of the Clooney upset to be spotted in the videos of two alleged academy voters, those reelgeezers who blabbed their voting preferences on YouTube.

It's clear they don't think much of Day-Lewis' ham-boning in "There Will Be Blood" — bashing it with scowls and derision — but, strangely, they don't tell us who they're going to vote for instead, as they do in most other categories. They really don't need to. Throughout the videos, they swoon, gush and giggle with delight over every mention of "Michael Clayton" (which, mind you, has seven head-scratching nominations, including best picture) and George Clooney.

Just like the rest of Hollywood. He's the ultra-cool kid in a Clooney-crazy town, the most beloved swashbuckler since Jack Nicholson, who holds the record for most wins by a male actor (three). Clooney's never lost an acting award and has never before been nominated in lead. We don't know his secret voting strength across the whole academy electorate once this matinee star has managed to snag a bid from the snobs in the acting branch.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!