"Mad Men's" top victory last year was historic. Never before in Emmy history had a basic cable show won best series, either drama or comedy. Was it a fluke? Or are TV academy voters still crazy about "Mad Men" now? Our Emmy gurus/ forum moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) believe it will prevail easily and explain why below. Also read their expanded, insightful views on these categories; best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead drama actor, lead drama actress, lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. See Boomer, Rob and I battle over  which shows may win best comedy series in our video slugfest here. See a chart of predix by top journalists here. Read more predix in our forums.

Watch our video smackdowns covering these races: best drama actor, lead drama actress and best comedy series.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.  "Mad Men"
2.  "Lost"
3.  "Breaking Bad"
4.  "House"
5.  "Damages"
6.  "Dexter"
7.  "Big Love"

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This category really doesn't need a ton of discussion. I think "Mad Men" is so far out in front that nothing can possibly catch it.  The show completely dominated the writing category and has a very good shot at winning directing as well.

Personally, I thought "Lost" and "Mad Men" were virtually tied in terms of quality this past season (and degree of difficulty in their complex structures). However, that very hard-to-follow structure of "Lost" makes it almost impossible for non-regular viewers to even know what is happening. Having won this category before, it certainly has a slim chance at a win.

AMC also has a very devoted following for "Breaking Bad," so a win by that show is not out of the question.  I think the lack of a directing or writing nomination might signify less respect within the academy.

Of the other nominees, "House," "Damages" and "Dexter" were all in the running for this prize last year, but I don't believe they are strong contenders for an actual win.  The producers, cast and crew of "Big Love" should be very proud of this slot, because it is their only Emmy nomination this year.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. "Mad Men"
2. "Breaking Bad"
3. "Big Love"
4. "Lost"
5. "Damages"
6. "Dexter"
7. "House"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: "Mad Men" is going to win this category. It seems to be an almost certainty. There really is nothing else like this show on TV, and, with the most Emmy nominations and the near-reverence that critics, fans and industry appear to have for the show, it looks unstoppable.

NOMINEES FOR BEST DRAMA
"Big Love" — "Prom Queen" and "On Trial"; "Come Ye Saints" and "Fight or Flight"; "Outer Darkness" and "Sacrament"
"Breaking Bad" — "Grilled," "Peekaboo," "Better Call Saul," "4 Days Out," "Phoenix," "ABQ"
"Damages" — "I Lied, Too" and "Burn It, Shred It, I Don't Care"; "Hey! Mr. Pibb" and "London, of Course"; "Look What He Dug Up This Time" and "Trust Me"
"Dexter" — "The Lion Sleeps Tonight" and "Easy as Pie"; "About Last Night" and "Go Your Own Way"; "I Had a Dream" and "Do You Take Dexter Morgan?"
"House M.D." — "Birthmarks" and "Locked In"; "Simple Explanation" and "House Divided"; "Under My Skin" and "Both Sides Now"
"Lost" — "The Incident" (Parts 1 and 2); "The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham" and "LaFleur";  "The Variable" and "Follow the Leader"
"Mad Men" — "Flight" and "Three Sundays," "Six-Month Leave" and "A Night to Remember," "The Jet Set" and "Meditations in an Emergency"

When sizing up the Emmy battle over best drama series, keep this in mind: the winner will be chosen by about 200 voters who pledge to view two sample episodes of each of the seven nominees. Producers of the nominated shows actually submit in six samples for the Emmy race, but they are divided into three pairs of episodes randomly distributed to voters.

Do all voters actually watch all of the episode samples? Probably not, but at least they must vow that they did so by signing affidavits that are returned along with their final ballots. Surprisingly, most voters actually do their Emmy homework, which is how a low-rated, critically acclaimed show such as "Mad Men" won last year, making Emmy history by becoming the first basic-cable program ever to win best series — either drama or comedy.

Granted, "Mad Men" did have the Big Buzz last year and that helped. That buzz has worn off a bit by now, but many TV critics claim "Mad Men" was even better in Season 2 than it was in Season 1, so that means it must be considered the front-runner to repeat.

But with seven contenders in this race, a winner only needs to have a small sliver of passionate support — even as low as 15%. That means all seven nominees have a shot here. "Big Love" is really a long shot, though, considering the show has no other Emmy nominations. Maybe "House M.D." too, considering it's previously lost this category three times, but keep in mind that "Law & Order" lost five times before it finally prevailed here in 1997. However, that was back in the days when winners were chosen by judging panels forced to watch sample episodes in hotel rooms instead of by academy members who say they viewed same at home. Does that matter? Maybe. The new system creates some emotional distance between viewing and voting since academy members can ink their ballots days after doing their viewing duty. That permits factors like buzz to creep in, which never really mattered during the panel days.

Last year, some of Emmy's savviest gurus believed FX network's "Damages" came close to beating AMC's "Mad Men" for best drama series. Quite a few of them believed it deserved to. As a consolation prize, at least "Damages" star Glenn Close won best actress for portraying dragon attorney Patty Hewes.

Next: Can "Damages" pull off the victory as best drama this year? Much may depend on tonight's Season 2 finale, which airs at 10. Read about its chief Emmy competition here.

Entertainment Weekly is cheering on "Damages," albeit with a few reservations: "Yes, 'Damages' ' sophomore case has been a bit overstuffed, and guilty of a few legal maneuvers that make little constitutional sense. But that hasn't kept the show from being one of the most propulsive, unpredictable series on TV. We can't wait to hear this season's verdicts."

Last year, "Damages" joined "Mad Men" and Showtime's "Dexter" as the first non-HBO cable shows ever nominated for best drama or comedy series. Due to an accounting fluke, there were six nominees in the drama series category. This year there will be at least six — maybe seven — since the Emmys have now officially expanded the number of contenders per race. That means that there's an excellent chance that the dastardly "Damages" will return. For Emmy revenge, hellbent on victory?

Awards-savvy Showtime is the first network to launch its Emmy campaign this year by continuing the digital innovation it introduced last year. Again TV academy members may watch episodes of Showtime's Emmy contenders on line.

Showtime claims that last year's Internet campaign "resulted in academy members tuning in at a rate of approximately four full episodes per member," according to Richard Licata, executive VP of corporate communications. Result of the awards push: 21 Emmy bids, including an historic bid for "Dexter," which joined "Damages" and "Mad Men" as the first non-HBO cable series to be nominated for best drama or comedy series.

On Feb. 28, a new version of the site was unveiled for this year's derby and last week the network shipped out its campaign box directly to voters' homes and offices. Inside each box is a passcode that grants voters access to the "online screening room" (which promises broadcast quality viewing) plus there are four DVDs that include three sample episodes of "Californication" (201, 204, 210), "United States of Tara" (101, 102, 103) and "Weeds" (401, 402, 413). Also inside: two sample episodes of "Brotherhood" (304, 308), "Dexter" (305, 310) "The L Word" (601, 606), "Penn & Teller: Bull…!" (603, 604) "Secret Diary of a Call Girl" (201, 202), "This American Life" (205, 206) and "The Tudors" (301, 302) and one sample episode of "Tracey Ullman's State of the Union" (201).

In April, Showtime will heighten its digital innovation by making its episodes accessible to Emmy voters via iPhones and iPodTouch devices.

RELATED POSTS

Peek inside Showtime's campaign box for 2008-2009 SAG Awards

See Showtime's campaign box for 2008 Emmys

See Showtime's campaign box for 2007 Emmys

Emmy voters view 10,000 Showtime eppys in 10 days (2008)

Photo: Showtime

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That's the big drama looming over TV's top award this weekend as Sunday's Emmycast looms.

Remember, this year AMC's "Mad Men" and FX's "Damages" became the first basic cable shows ever nominated for best series and, if one of them wins — which is not only possible, but predicted by the overwhelming number of our top Emmy gurus (CLICK HERE) — the victory will trigger a seismic quake in Hollywood's TV industry. A win as best drama by Showtime's "Dexter" would be earth-shattering too, since it joins "Mad Men" and "Damages" as the first non-HBO cable shows to reap a top series bid.

The Emmy has always been a broadcast-network-biased award. The TV academy represents the industry's establishment, which has been reluctant to acknowledge the boom in cable TV creativity appreciated by millions of tube viewers. Cable TV wasn't even permitted to compete at the Emmys till 1987, which necessitated the creation of the Cable ACE Awards in 1979. (They eventually folded in 1998.) But only HBO has prospered at the Emmys since then, which is largely due to the millions of dollars it spends, shrewdly, to woo voters. That's a good thing — it's encouraged other cable channels to get aggressive about campaigning too. But even so, only three times have HBO shows won best comedy or drama series: "Sex and the City" (2001) and "The Sopranos" (2004, 2007). The first time any cable show was nominated in one of those categories was 1993 ("The Larry Sanders Show").

To help illustrate this behind-the-tinsel drama for you, I've compiled this time line on how cable has fared. Read through it and you'll understand how high the stakes are on Sunday night.

1965 — Charles Dolan launches cable TV delivered via underground wire in Manhattan because the skyscrapers block regular TV waves. By 1972, it evolves into HBO with Time Warner as partner. Showtime is launched in 1976, CNN and Cinemax in 1980, MTV in 1981.

1979 — Cable ACE Awards launch after Emmys continue to refuse to recognize cable programming.

1985 — TV academy Board of Governors votes to permit cable TV shows to compete in the future, but not until 1987.

1986 — Fox Network launched.

1987 — Fox Network pays $4.5 million for a three-year deal to telecast the Emmys, seizing the rights away from ABC, CBS and NBC, which had been airing the awards ceremony on a rotating "wheel deal," paying the TV academy $875,000 per year in a license fee. While Fox is a broadcast network like the others, its emergence is a serious challenge to the entrenched TV establishment.

1987-88 — Cable TV's first year of Emmy eligibility. Cable receives 15 out of 337 nominations and ends up with two awards, both for HBO's "Dear America: Letters Home from Vietnam," which is voted best informational special.

1989 — Cable wins only four lowly awards. First big Emmy wins for Fox network ("The Tracey Ullman Show").

1990 — Cable wins 10 Emmys — 8 for HBO, including first top award for acting: Hume Cronyn, "Age Old Friends" (best actor in a miniseries, movie or special). Costar Vincent Gardenia wins supporting actor.

1990-1991 — Cable scores 40 of the year's 328 nominations, including 12 for HBO's "The Josephine Baker Story," which wins five, including best actress for Lynn Whitfield. It loses best miniseries/movie to NBC's "Separate But Equal." Two other cable wins are reaped (for a total of seven), including best supporting actor in a mini/movie for James Earl Jones in TNT's "Heat Wave." Disney Channel wins best music direction.

1992 — Disney Channel becomes the first pay cable network other than HBO (today Disney is a free basic-cable channel) to win a top Emmy: best drama series actor (Christopher Lloyd, "Road to Avonlea"). Disney Channel also wins best children's program ("Mark Twain and Me"). HBO also wins best variety special ("Cirque du Soleil II: A New Experience"). TNT wins best informational special ("MGM: When the Lion Roared").

1993 — HBO's "The Larry Sanders Show" becomes the first cable show ever nominated for best series (comedy), scoring eight nominations and losing them all. HBO ties ABC for 55 nominations. HBO wins 17, the most of any network (NBC comes in second place with 16), including best movie/mini (tie between HBO's "Stalin" and "Barbarians at the Gate") and actress (Holly Hunter, "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom"). All cable networks reap 76 bids — 21% of total. Lifetime scores first win (Mary Tyler Moore, best supporting actress in a movie/mini, "Stolen Babies"). After spending six years on the Fox network, the Emmys return to another broadcast channel (ABC).

1994 — All cable networks reap 63 noms — 18% of total. HBO drops to 34 noms, but wins best TV movie/mini ("And the Band Played On").

1995 — Cable shows win a record 20 Emmys. TNT's "Joseph" wins best mini. HBO continues its dominance of the award for best movie ("Indictment: The McMartin Trial"), which will continue in the future.

1996 — Cable programs claim 125 nominations (one third of total). Win 26.

1997 — HBO takes second-highest tally of noms (90) behind NBC (92). Cable shows win 28 Emmys compared to 51 for broadcast networks.

Yes — yikes — this means I am shimmying out onto a thin, shaky predix limb, I know, but little Emmy birdies tell me that we pundits have made a big mistake underestimating Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") in the race for best drama actor.

Up until recently, I was with my Envelope comrades resting on usually sturdy oak for James Spader ("Boston Legal"). After all, Spader has never lost — he's gone three for three at Emmys past, including last year, and now he gives his most dynamic performance yet in the sample episode he submitted to Emmy judges. "The Court Supreme" is Spader's performance supreme, granted — he's never been better or given a longer or more dramatic courtroom speech than he does chewing out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. Read more about his Emmy chances and history, CLICK HERE.

But I have a hunch that Emmy voters are just as sick of seeing him win as we pundits are, especially after his ungrateful, snarky acceptance speech last year when he claimed his latest statuette with a shrug, saying, "I still have no idea who votes for these things. Or how you even secure a ballot. Uh . . . but thank you."

The battle over best drama actor is a truly dramatic smackdown involving formidable heavyweights. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House, M.D.") have real shots to win, and maybe even Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") too. Perhaps I'm making a big mistake pooh-poohing the prospects of Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). After all, he's an esteemed star of artsy indie films, which appeals to those notorious snobs in the TV academy, and he delivers a pretentious-as-heck talkathon with Dianne Wiest in his episode submission, but it doesn't contain the emotional fireworks we spy elsewhere in this race.

Frame for frame, moment for moment, Cranston delivers the most intense, theatrical performance of all contenders as a science teacher who wigs out and becomes a crystal meth chef upon hearing the news that he's dying of cancer. The episode has a huge "ick" factor. Watching this good father, husband and teacher team up with drug dealers who will sell their poison to innocents is cringe-inducing, especially since he does it sweating, scowling and romping around in his underpants in the desert. But he does it to whip up a quick fortune to leave his family before he croaks, so his motive isn't selfish.

Just look at the YouTube video below. It's the first scene of the pilot episode, which is what he submitted to Emmy judges. He's talking into a video camera, telling his family how much he loves them and why he's doing such terrible things. If that doesn't wow Emmy voters, what will?

Cranston's episode has all three elements that are key to impressing judges: It has wide emotional range, impact (not just one big money scene, but a treasure-packed hour of them) and — most important of all — empathy. That's crucial. Portraying a powerfully empathetic character is how Particia Arquette ("Medium") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") pulled off recent upsets in the lead-actress races. It's impossible not to feel the terror, dread, sadness and doom Cranston's character experiences as he chooses to step into hell before life's end. Read the full episode description HERE.

But Cranston also has a few other pluses. Even though his character allies himself with a thug, he knocks off worse devils in the pilot to "Breaking Bad." The final fight scene is a heart-stopping shockeroo, and it redeems him a bit too. But the other secret ingredient this episode contains is its theme of substance abuse — one that often triggers big award wins in rehab-happy Hollywood. Candice Bergen won many of her five Emmys for episodes dealing with Murphy Brown's alcoholism. Ditto for Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"), even Kirstie Alley ("Cheers"). Just last year Helen Mirren claimed another Emmy as best actress in a TV film as a police detective battling the bottle.

Lastly, Cranston, personally speaking, is endearing and beloved across Hollywood. It's easy to see why in this video chat I had with him and his "Breaking Bad" costar Anna Gunn last weekend on the red carpet outside the Creative Arts Emmys. Watch his reaction when I tell him that he's got a real chance to win. Over the past few weeks I've been hearing more and more positive buzz for his Emmy hopes from inside industry sources, so I'm starting to take his chances seriously. And so should you. With six nominees in this category, a contender, theoretically, may need only 17% of the vote to win.

What I say in this video to Gunn and Cranston is hard to hear because I'm holding the camera several feet away from them while they hold the mike close to themselves. At first I ask them for their reaction to the amazing breakthrough that basic-cable TV shows by AMC ("Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") have had at the Emmys this year. Later in the video I ask Bryan to tell us what his reaction was when he heard that he was nominated for best lead drama actor. Then I inform him that some serious Emmy gurus (like Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly) are picking him to win. Then I ask him if he'll attend this Sunday's ceremony with a prepared acceptance speech — just in case he does win.

Hey, I can't let Ausiello be the only guru to claim this longshot among the pundits in our Emmy pool, can I? (See all predix HERE.) So now I'm (nervously) stepping off of the James Spader bandwagon to pick Cranston for the win too. Below are my revised racetrack odds for this category. To see the full list of racetrack odds, CLICK HERE

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1

(AMC, L.A. Times)

Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.

But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.

It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.

TEAM TV JOURNOS: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Aaron Barnhart (Kansas City Star), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Melissa Grego (Broadcasting and Cable), Richard Huff (New York Daily News), John Kubicek (BuddyTV), Lisa de Moraes (Washington Post), Kristin Dos Santos (E! Online — CLICK HERE for expanded Emmy predix), Maggie Furlong (AOL Television), Michele Greppi (TV Week), Matt Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan (Chicago Tribune), Michael Starr (New York Post), David Zurawik (Baltimore Sun).

TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"Damages" — Beachum
"Dexter" — Huff
"House"
"Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
"Two and a Half Men" — Greppi

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik
Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan
James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett
(NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos,
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan
Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria
William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch

BEST REALITY HOST
Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik
Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum
Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond
Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria
Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
"American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch
"Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond
"Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan
"Top Chef"

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
"The Colbert Report"
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
"Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff
"Real Time With Bill Maher"
"Saturday Night Live" — Licuria

BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE
"Bernard and Doris" — Greppi
"Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch
"The Memory Keeper's Daughter"
"A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett
"Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil

The biggest dramas at the Emmys this year are in the races for drama series and lead actor. Chris "Boomer" Beachum and I cover the series race in a separate podcast chat here at Gold Derby, but now we want elaborate on the post below (click HERE) by discussing this James Spader biz in depth. Boomer and I agree that the undefeated star of "Boston Legal" is out front to win his fourth Emmy but disagree over who's in second place. Boomer says Hugh Laurie ("House"). I say . . . naw, I ain't gonna tell ya. Better that you tune in for the full, fun chat. CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Listen. (Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.)

Expect to hear a lot of groans this Sunday night when "Boston Legal" star James Spader — who's gone undefeated at the Emmys in the past — wins best drama actor for a fourth time.

Yes, brace yourself for one of those bizarre Emmy moments to repeat again. I and Gold Derby 's two other Emmy experts — our forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — all predict Spader will pull off another jaw-dropper. Rob's and Boomer's expanded predix, rankings and analysis are below, but, first, let me offer my own explanation.

Remember how Emmy voting works: Nominees pick a sample episode of their best work and submit it to about 50 to 70 judges, all fellow actors, who watch the DVD screeners at home and rank the contenders.

Spader keeps winning because "Boston Legal" producer David E. Kelley — a whiz at snagging Emmys and a former lawyer in real life — usually gives Spader one of those big, showboating courtroom speeches at the end of his Emmy episode that wins over judge and jury. Including Emmy judges.

This year Spader gives his hottest firebrand speech ever. He gets to argue a case before the U.S. Supreme Court and he uses the occasion to scorch justices for being lackeys of the conservative White House, at one point chastising Clarence Thomas for not paying attention to him as he rants: "Put down that magazine!"

"Who are you people?" Spader roars. "You've transformed this court from being a governmental branch devoted to civil rights and liberties into protector of discrimination, guardian of government, a slave to monied interests and big business and today, hallelujah, you seek to slay a mentally disabled man!"

How can Hollywood lefties resist voting for that?

If Spader actually manages to lose, it's hard to say who'll beat him. All competing episode submissions are superb and, with six nominees in this race, all a contender needs to win, theoretically, is 17% of the vote.

Both Boomer and Rob believe that Hugh Laurie is in second place and that's possible. In the "House's Head" episode of "House" he gives a big flashy turn as he battles temporary amnesia while struggling to recall which fellow passenger he diagnosed with a life-threatening medical problem just prior to a bus crash. I think this episode has a drawback, though. Normally, House is a cranky character — in an appealing way. Here he's downright nasty, a bully. Some voters inevitably will be turned off.

Personally, I would put Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") in second place. His Emmy episode, "The Wheel," isn't, well, as ham-fisted or emotionally flashy as Hugh Laurie's. In fact, Hamm is rather laid back through most of it, but he gets a big crying scene — voters are often suckers for that.

In "The Wheel," hotsy-totsy advertising exec Don Draper (Hamm) suddenly redeems himself for being a sly alley cat when we see him give a slide show to Kodak while advising the company on what to call its new, round slide projector. He makes his pitch while showing them slides of himself with wife and kids during happier days years ago. Seeing these images again makes Draper cry in the dark while he urges the execs to change the name of "The Wheel" to something else that "takes us to a place where we ache to go," he says, tearing up, voice cracking as he shows off old, happy photos of him and his wife. "It's not called 'the wheel.' It's called 'the carousel.' It lets us travel the way a child travels, around and around and back home again — to a place where we know we are loved."

A similar parallel can be drawn to Michael C. Hall's performance — which is also quite passive except for a big grand finale. In Hall's case, the emotional contrast is even more interesting. What makes his acting so seductive is its smoldering volcanic fire. Serial killers don't like to draw attention to themselves so he's always holding back, drawing us near. Very powerful, especially at the end of this "Dexter" episode, "There's Something About Harry," in which he discovers that his father committed suicide when he learned that his son was a murderer. Dexter screams, "I killed my father!" It's the episode where Dexter keeps his nemesis, James Doakes, locked up in a cage out in the Everglades and it's so taut and gripping that it could definitely bring Hall the Emmy.

But Hall not only needs to get by Spader, Laurie and Hamm, but Bryan Cranston and Gabriel Byrne too. I agree with Rob and Boomer that Byrne's turn is just too talky and pretentious. He's out. But Cranston really does have hope here. I think Boomer makes a big mistake ranking him last. In the pilot episode of "Breaking Bad," Cranston is riveting as a science teacher who resorts to making crystal meth to earn a quick fortune when he learns that he's dying of cancer. Cranston has a real chance to win too. Only Byrne is out of this race, methinks.

But let's check in with what Rob and Boomer think. First, Rob.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S RANKING
1. James Spader, "Boston Legal" ("The Court Surpreme")
2. Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("House's Head")
3. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Pilot")
4. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("There's Something About Harry")
5. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Wheel")
6. Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 4")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The actors I have in third to sixth place should really all be tied for third place. I can't separate them really — they're all that good — and are all in with a shot in this years number-one killer category.

Gabriel Byrne is touching and vulnerable in an episode where the camera is almost entirely focused on him. Bryan Cranston OWNS this character in the pilot of "Breaking Bad," and is so perfect that he is the spoiler. Michael C. Hall is really captivating in his episode, and has lots of buzz to go with it. So does Jon Hamm, the Golden Globe winner from earlier this year, who has the best scene of the category in the "Carousel" presentation towards the end of his episode. Hugh Laurie is wonderful in "House's Head," and everybody knows that he is way overdue for some Emmy recognition.

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Newsweek gathered together five Emmy nominees — Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers & Sisters"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds"), John Slattery ("Mad Men"), and Rainn Wilson ("The Office") — for a lively discussion.

While it may have been called a roundtable, Griffiths, a four-time nominee, found a way to sit at the head of it, so to speak. She held forth on a variety of subjects, including the need to bring cash for the bar at the 2007 Emmy ceremony: "Last year I was trying to borrow $5 from a man I've never met. I promised I'd send it back to him, and it took so long to get the money to get the beer to calm the nerves. I look up and Sally Field's on the television and ... I go running and bang on the door, like, 'You have to let me back in. That's my mother up there!' They said, 'I'm sorry, Ma'am, we're in lockout.'"

Parker is the lone Emmy champ among the participants; she won for supporting actress in 2004  for the miniseries "Angels in America." Though a double nominee last year — as lead actress in both a comedy series ("Weeds") and mini or movie ("The Robber Bride") — she admits, "I didn't prepare a speech for either because I knew I was going to lose twice."(And indeed she did, to America Ferrara for "Ugly Betty" and Helen Mirren for the final "Prime Suspect," respectively.)

Wilson talks about losing his first bid in the supporting race last year: "I was really nervous. I didn't think I was going to be, and then I got in the seats, and then when the announcer is, like, 'Up next, after this commercial, the best-supporting-actor comedy award!' Then all of a sudden my heart was just pounding — I really thought my heart was going to explode and I was going to vomit blood. And then they read Jeremy Piven's name and I was, like, Whew."

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(Newsweek.com)