"Slumdog Millionaire" continued its triumphant dash around the awards derby track by snagging the top award tonight from the Directors Guild of America for Danny Boyle.

The latest triumph of "Slumdog Millionaire" follows its recent good fortune at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where it won best cast ensemble (which some Oscarologists believe is a harbinger of the Oscars' eventual best-picture champ) and best pic from the Producers Guild of America. Over the last 50 years, the movie that has won the DGA award has gone on to win the top Academy Award 40 times. Curiously, the DGA Award agrees more often with the best picture category at the Oscars than the academy's own slot for best director, which usually lines up with best picture.

Despite a distinguished career in both feature films and TV, Danny Boyle had never previously been nominated for a DGA award in either medium.

"Slumdog Millionaire" competed tonight against these four rivals: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (David Fincher), "The Dark Knight" (Christopher Nolan), "Frost/Nixon" (Ron Howard) and "Milk" (Gus Van Sant).

See who our top team of award pundits predicted would win the DGA Award.

See full list of other DGA winners here!

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Over the last 50 years, the Oscars' best-picture winner also bagged the top prize from the Directors Guild of America 40 times. What will claim the DGA trophy when it's bestowed on Saturday night?

The five films nominated: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (David Fincher), "The Dark Knight" (Christopher Nolan), "Frost/Nixon" (Ron Howard), "Milk" (Gus Van Sant) and "Slumdog Millionaire" (Danny Boyle).

Over at AwardsDaily.com, Sasha Stone sighs, "There probably isn’t much to write about here as Boyle has this one in the bag. He has it so much in the bag, in fact, that I don’t even think I’ll run predictions because what would be the point?"

Well, Gold Derby decided to pursue the point anyway and pooled predix from lots of pundits, who back Boyle by a landslide, that's true. But I found a few brave (crazy?) souls who dare to stray. They include Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters), Kevin Lewin (World Entertainment News Network) and, well, me. All of us believe Fincher will take this. I even think Christopher Nolan (who's not nominated at the Oscars) has a shot. After all, there were a few notable cases of previous Oscar snubees actually claiming the DGA trophy: Ron Howard ("Apollo 13") and Steven Spielberg ("The Color Purple").

There are only 374 members of the directors' branch of the academy, but there are 13,000 members of the DGA and the vast majority do not make their living helming feature films. They do TV shows, commercials and music videos. They're younger and hipper than the academy gang. And here's another key consideration: They are not permitted, according to guild rules, to receive DVD screeners. I think it's safe to say that quite a lot of the DGA members haven't seen "Slumdog Millioniare." Maybe many haven't seen "Benjamin Button" too, but they've probably seen "The Dark Knight" and aren't so quick to shrug it off as a mere popcorn pic.

All three leading nominees have esteemed reputations as directors of art-house fare: Fincher ("Zodiac"), Boyle ("Trainspotting") and Nolan ("Memento"). That's important. Boyle and Nolan are British. Fincher's a Yankee. Is that important? This award is bestowed by the Directors Guild of America, let's recall.

I've decided to jump off a cliff for Fincher because I think the guild members -- even if they haven't seen "Benjamin Button" -- can tell from the trailers and TV commercials that it's an epic work full of impressive visual effects, spellbinding cinematography, sumptuous music and intense performances by A-list stars. The fact that it's based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story gives it literary cred. Furthermore, Fincher has an immensely high Cool Factor within directors' ranks.

However, here are the pundits pooled by Gold Derby who are backing Boyle: Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon.com), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon.net), Greg Ellwood (HitFix.com), Scott Feinberg (Feinberg Files, The Envelope), Marshall Fine (Star magazine, HollywoodAndFine.com), Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Mark Olsen (The Envelope), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter), Chuck Walton (Fandango.com), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere.com), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

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Here's who our experts predicted would win the Screen Actors Guild Awards

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Here are the films our experts predict will win best picture from the Producers Guild of America

Photos credits: Paramount, Fox Searchlight, Warner Bros.

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Last year, "No Country for Old Men" won best picture at the Oscars after it became only the second movie ever to win the top prizes from all four leading showbiz guilds: producers, directors, writers and actors (ensemble award). Which of the four films below is the only one that pulled off that accomplishment earlier? See the answer here!

This year 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees are repeating at the Oscars. Since double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead nom for "Revolutionary Road." However, that film's Michael Shannon managed to knock SAG nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of the supporting race.

Last year 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Two years ago, it was a staggering 19 of the 20 with the one variation coming from the same film — "The Departed" — as SAG nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg.

Four of this year's five SAG-nominated ensembles appear in Oscar-nominated best pictures with SAG contender "Doubt" replaced by "The Reader." Last year only one SAG ensemble nominee — "No Country for Old Men" — made it into the best-picture race, although that film won both awards. Two years ago it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize, but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed."

All five of the lead actress nominees are competing for both awards, though Kate Winslet contends at the Oscars for "The Reader" rather than "Revolutionary Road." Last year, it was four of five as the only SAG nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart") whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney.

The supporting actress race matches up four to five as the promotion of Kate Winslet for "The Reader" left room at the Oscars for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler"). Last year, this race was also four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan of "Atonement."

Lead actor matched up perfectly. Last year, it went three for five with SAG nominees and relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") replaced by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah").

And, as mentioned, the supporting race is four for five with Shannon replacing Patel. Last year SAG nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War").

The DGA picks for best director matched up with four of the five academy choices as DGA nominee Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") was edged out at the Oscars by Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). Daldry has only helmed three films and has Oscar nods for all of them, the previous two being "Billy Elliot" (2000) and "The Hours" (2002). Last year, DGA nominee Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") lost his Oscar slot to Jason Reitman who helmed best pic nominee "Juno."

The PGA nominees for best picture also went four for five with the Oscar contenders as "The Dark Knight" was bumped by "The Reader." Last year, it was also four for five with PGA nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" replaced by "Atonement."

The WGA nods for original screenplay were shut out save for Dustin Lance Black and his script for "Milk." Last year they lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Knocked Up" which was knocked out of the competition by the team who whipped up "Ratatouille." However, the adapted screenplay race went four for five with only the WGA nominees for "The Dark Knight" bumped by David Hare, who adapted "The Reader." Last year Sean Penn, who wowed the WGA with his adaptation of "Into the Wild," was snubbed by the Oscars as was the scripter for "Zodiac." They were replaced by "Atonement" adapter Christopher Hampton and first time writer-director Sarah Polley.

The ASC choices for best cinematography lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Revolutionary Road" shooter Roger Deakins, who was replaced by Tom Stern for "Changeling." Last year the ASC went five for five.

The ACE picks for best editing match those of the Oscars. Last year ACE nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was replaced by "Michael Clayton."

Yesterday's WGA nominees narrowed the possible winners for the best picture Oscar down to 10. Today's Directors Guild of America nominations have given us a good indication of the final five contenders, which just happen to coincide with the PGA contenders.

The DGA nominees are: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" — David Fincher; "The Dark Knight" — Christopher Nolan; "Frost/Nixon" — Ron Howard; "Milk" — Gus Van Sant; "Slumdog Millionaire" — Danny Boyle.

The five films nominated by the Directors Guild of America tend to be the ones that make the Academy Awards best-picture list. Last year proved to be the rare exception to that rule as DGA contenders "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Julian Schnabel) and "Into the Wild" (Sean Penn) were replaced in the Oscars best picture race by "Atonement" and "Juno."

Over the five previous years, only one film cited by the DGA did not make it into the top Oscar category — in 2006, "Dreamgirls" got bumped by "Letters From Iwo Jima." In fact, there is far more agreement between those two categories than between the DGA list and Oscar's best-director lineup. For example, helmers of foreign-language art-house flicks like "City of God" (Fernando Meirelles) and "Talk to Her" (Pedro Almodovar) may make it into the Oscar race for best director, but that phenom occurs less frequently at DGA. Last year, Julian Schnabel, the American helmer of French-lingo "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," did get a DGA nod but celebrated director Almodovar has never been cited by DGA.

Since the DGA began handing out awards in 1949, the winning helmer has gone on to take home the Oscar with six exceptions. And one of those snubbed directors –- Ron Howard –- is in contention this year. Back in 1995, he won the DGA for "Apollo 13" and while the film contended for best picture at the Oscars (remember our rule), Howard was not even nominated. Mel Gibson won for directing the best picture champ "Braveheart."

The other five instances of disagreement between the DGA and the Oscars were:

1968 –- DGA to Anthony Harvey for "The Lion in Winter" and Oscar to Carol Reed for "Oliver!"

1972 –- DGA to Francis Ford Coppola for "The Godfather" and Oscar to Bob Fosse for "Cabaret"

1985 –- DGA to Steven Spielberg for "The Color Purple" and Oscar to Sydney Pollack for "Out of Africa"

2000 –- DGA to Ang Lee for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic"

2002 –- DGA to Rob Marshall for "Chicago" and Oscar to Roman Polanski for "The Pianist"

To predict the DGA remember these factors: The group is comprised of 13,000 members who primarily work in television, not feature films. About 8,000 live in the Los Angeles area — the rest are scattered across the U.S. They are not permitted to receive DVDs, so they must view films at industry screenings or their local cineplex. Considering all that — plus the fact that DGA ballots were shipped the first week of December — how many members do you think had even seen the late December limited releases? And, finally, DGA uses a weighted ballot, not a preferential one. If you don't know the difference, you haven't been reading Gold Derby regularly. Shame, shame!

Photo: Warner Bros.

Last pundit predix for Directors Guild of America nominations. The DGA nominations will be unveiled early Thursday. Earlier we asked more than a dozen gurus to pipe in with predix, which can be viewed here and here.

Now for our final three views. Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters) and Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, The Envelope) agree with the consensus forecast: Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire"), David Fincher ("Curious Case of Benjamin Button"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") and Gus Van Sant ("Milk").

That notorious rascal T.L. Stanley (Gold Rush, Hollywood Reporter) agrees with four of those calls, but drops Ron Howard for John Patrick Shanley ("Doubt").

Who'll nab bids for the Directors Guild of America awards when noms are unveiled this Thursday, Jan. 8? Below is our first batch of forecasts from these seven notable kudos seers who participate at our Buzzmeter: Gregory Ellwood (HitFix.com), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Nathaniel Rogers (TheFilmExperience), Anne Thompson (Variety.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Three DGA contenders reap unanimous support: Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire"), David Fincher ("Curious Case of Benjamin Button") and Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight"). Nabbing six out of seven votes: Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon") and Gus Van Sant ("Milk"). See more DGA predix HERE!

As all Oscarologists know, what we've believed to be true during this derby season so far is now official: looks like best-pic pony "No Country for Old Men" and its helmers are now inevitably Oscar-bound.

Over the past 59 years, there's been an impressive 90 percent agreement rate between the guild's and academy's directoring awards and, of course, the movie that wins best director wins best picture about 90 percent of the time.

There have been six exceptions to matchups in the directing race:

1968 — Anthony Harvey, "The Lion in Winter" (DGA); Carol Reed, "Oliver!" (Oscar)

1972 — Francis Ford Coppola, "The Godfather" (DGA); Bob Fosse, "Cabaret" (Oscar)

1985 — Steven Spielberg, "The Color Purple" (DGA); Sydney Pollack, "Out of Africa" (Oscar)

1995 — Ron Howard, "Apollo 13" (DGA); Mel Gibson, "Braveheart" (Oscar)

2000 — Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (DGA); Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic" (Oscar)

2002 — Rob Marshall, "Chicago" (DGA); Roman Polanski, "The Pianist" (Oscar)

I'll be at the Directors Guild of America Awards on Saturday night — blogging results live here — and fully expect, as most pundits do, to be informing you that the Coens just won the feature-film trophy. But, beware: upsets are possible by Sean Penn and Paul Thomas Anderson.

First, let's dish Anderson. "There Will Be Blood" is the biggest surprise of derby season: nothing at all like "Boogie Nights" or the pix he's done in the past. It's been declared best picture by the National Society of Film Critics and L.A. Film Critics Association (by comparison, "No Country for Old Men" claimed New York Film Critics' Circle and Critics' Choice — not quite as snooty or close to Hollywood home) and it has more of a big, serious epic sprawl. "Blood" is fresher — it spilled out at Christmastime; "No Country" came out in November. This latter factor could actually be a drawback, though, since fewer voters have probably seen "Blood" compared to "No Country." There are 13,000 DGA members scattered across the U.S. where "Blood" has been in limited release, compared to 370 members of the Oscars' directors' branch who have easy access to local screenings, private or theater, across L.A. Sometimes it helps to be out of the gate early, but "Blood" still, surprisingly, mustered a nomination, so that means voters are paying attention.

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Now that an agreement has been struck so quickly between DGA and Hollywood producers (click here for details), it makes you wonder: Was Oscarcast producer Gil Cates — who is a chief negotiator for DGA — counting on this all along to save his awards show?

He seemed very confident the other day when assuring reporters that the Oscarcast would go on, rain or shine, heck or high water, on Feb. 24. He hinted that the academy had a Secret Plan in the works for an alternative telecast, but refused to reveal details. Frankly, I think he was bluffing. I think his secret plan is the same as Nixon's to end the Vietnam war, which he dangled, brilliantly, on the eve of the U.S. presidential elections in 1972. In other words: it's a shrewd stall tactic till the crunch period ends. What could Cates' secret Plan C possibly be? A taped clip-show alternative didn't work for the People's Choice Awards. The Golden Globes' televised press conference was slammed. And what happens if the WGA strike doesn't get settled and he suddenly has show us the alleged TV trick up his sleeve?

But Cates sure seemed supremely confident the other day when chatting with reporters, then — wham, bam — a DGA/ producers' deal was struck a day or so later. Clearly, that those things are linked.

Now some observers are saying that "pattern bargaining" may apply to the writers, who may have just been waiting for the helmers to come up with a template that may apply to them. The directors agreed to twice the compensation they previously got for TV shows downloaded on the internet "and raised the rate for movie downloads by 80 percent," reports Forbes.com. "What's more, directors will be compensated for advertising-supported streaming of shows for the first time."

Would that be sufficient for writers? They currently get .3 percent (yes, point-three percent; there's a decimal point in front of that number) of DVD sales and are asking for 2.5 percent of those sales plus web and mobile-device revenues in the future.

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