Two people penned the screenplays to the most best-picture champs at the Academy Awards: three. One of them was Francis Ford Coppola: "Patton" (1970), "The Godfather" (1972), "The Godfather, Part II" (1974). Who was the other? To see the answer, click here!
Since part of an Oscar pundit's job is to jump off cliffs, bravely and spectacularly, we salute New York Post film critic Lou Lumenick for daring to forecast a best-picture nomination for "2012," the upcoming apocalypse thriller from Roland Emmerich, director of "The Day After Tomorrow," "Godzilla" and "Independence Day." One of the chief reasons the academy expanded its best-picture list to 10 nominees from five was to include big popcorn pix that used to get nommed in the good ole days ("The Towering Inferno," "Jaws") but now are slighted. Unfortunately, alas, it looks like poor Lou will go splat against the Oscar rocks, according to Variety's gloomy review of "2012."
The trade paper predicts the doomsday thriller will strike lots of ticket gold: "This simultaneously spectacular and risible concoction looks likely to trigger a worldwide B.O. tsunami for Sony." But don't expect much academy gold: "On any level other than as sheer visual sensation, '2012' is a joke, for the simple reason that it has no point of view; the film offers no philosophical, metaphysical, intellectual and certainly no religious perspective on the cataclysm, just the physical frenzy of it all."
But, hey, "2012" does possess an "eye-popping display of movie pyrotechnics," says Variety. So it's not really the end of the Oscar world for the flick. Maybe it can still find salvation is some tech categories like sound editing and viz effects, saving Lumenick a bit on Oscar night too.
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Hunger for "Avatar" continues to build, fed by the recent release of a new, long, all-revealing trailer and more photos. Check out this video interview with director James Cameron too. Sure, only two sci-fi flicks have ever been nominated for best picture at the Oscars ("Star Wars," "E.T."), but now there are twice as many nominees in that category than there used to be, it's a thin year in terms of rival competition and — best of all, "Avatar" fanboys — a fantasy film actually won in the past, let's recall. "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (2003) went undefeated to tie the all-time record (11 chunks of academy gold) also held by "Titanic," which, coincidentally, was directed by "Avatar's" James Cameron. Back in 1997, Cameron proved lots of Oscar prophets wrong when they predicted his budget-busting, disaster-plagued "Titanic" would sink. Now most Gold Derby readers believe his "Avatar" will defy the odds and be nominated for best picture. See poll results below. Notice that 11% of respondents (as of Friday afternoon) believe that "Avatar" will actually win best picture! They're crazy, of course, but I personally agree with the majority that it will be nominated.
• Dave Karger is more optimistic than most pundits about the Oscar odds of "Where the Wild Things Are" sneaking into the best-picture race, saying, "It may not be a complete lock like 'Precious' or 'Up in the Air,' but with 10 slots, I'm liking its chances." EW OSCAR WATCH
• Steve Pond isn't so wild about "Wild's" Oscar odds: "At the moment I'd say it’s a best-pic longshot that could be a player in art direction and effects categories; if it continues a strong run at the box office, the higher profile and prestige reviews could boost those chances."
Eye-balling the odds of rival "The Fantastic Mr. Fox," Pond observes, "Clearly, its best bet is in the animated feature category, but it’ll likely be a longshot unless the category expands from three to five nominees." THE ODDS
• Kate Gosselin isn't the only one who spurns Jon, according to Courtney Hazlett, who reports,"The reality-show dad reportedly has approached awards shows with requests to appear as a presenter, and has been turned down by at least two productions, according to producers. And while Gosselin was asking for appearance fees in the $30,000 range as recently as September, he’s now offering to present for free, asking only to have travel and accommodations covered.
"'There was absolutely no interest in having him be a part of our show, no matter how much it was not going to cost us,' said one producer. 'He thinks he can attach himself to any project that has cameras. I guess he doesn’t realize that the world is not his personal reality show.'" MSNBC
• Psssst ... wanna quick crash course to prep for the new Oscars derby? Check out the excellent, info-packed photo galleries at HitFix, written by Greg Ellwood. Here are the links for the rundowns on best picture, lead actor and lead actress.
• In honor of Hollyween, Paul Gaita hails the first of his special series focusing on award-winning and nominated horror and suspense films and television programs, starting with "The Jar" episode of "The Alfred Hitchcock Hour." THE CIRCUIT
• Pete Hammond dissects the Oscars' race for best foreign-language film, 'splaining how the process works (that wacky breakdown of four color-coded viewing groups, etc.) NOTES ON A SEASON
• Anne Thompson is "surprised by the film industry and the media’s continued willingness to give a free pass to entrepreneur Carlos de Abreu’s Hollywood Film Festival, a cannily constructed facade that honors stars, filmmakers and craftspeople and lines the pockets of de Abreu." THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD
Photo credits: Warner Bros., WireImage, CBS
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Just hours after the release of the new Michael Jackson single "This Is It" Monday, Paul Anka established his right to co-author credit on the song. Turns out the tune -- then titled "I Never Heard" -- was penned by Anka and Jackson back in 1983 when they were working together on songs for a new Anka album. As Reuters reports, "Both 'I Never Heard' and 'This Is It' share the same vocal and piano line, although the latter track boasts new overdubs from Jackson's brothers."
Paul Anka could be in for quite a payday now that he owns half of the copyright in "This Is It." But will it finally win the veteran singer-songwriter a Grammy Award? Though Paul Anka enjoyed a string of hits in the early years of the Grammys, he has never contended for any of the major awards. He was snubbed even for his 1969 English language lyrics for "My Way" -- a signature song for then Grammy favorite Frank Sinatra.
Critical response to "This Is It" has been mixed at best. Jon Pareles of the New York Times said: "No funk here: it’s the posthumous, all-sweetness-and-light Jackson that his family is determined to sell. But at least he sounds human, especially at the end, where he lets the vocal line take a few tentative leaps." Greg Kot of the Chicago Tribune said, "Jackson cycles through a verse, pre-chorus and chorus several times during the track's 3:46 duration but never really develops any of the initial ideas." And for Ann Powers of the Los Angeles Times, "His high tenor billows and crests, but never breaks; this is ecstasy without resolution. It feels great, but unfinished. It simultaneously makes you want it to keep going and to become something else, something more."
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Sony Pictures Classics has so many fillies in the lead actress race that the studio's pushing several out of the gate early. Who has the best odds to go the distance? Pictured above, left to right: Abbie Cornish ("Bright Star"), Carey Mulligan ("An Education") and Audrey Tatou ("Coco Before Chanel"). And two posts down is another poll that considers the Oscar fate of Abbie Cornish separately.
Photos: Sony Pictures Classics
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Never in Emmy history have all of the top series champs of one year (best comedy and drama series, plus lead actor and actress) returned the next to strike gold again, but it's starting to look like it may happen on Sept. 20.
Many of Gold Derby's top experts — who view the same sample episodes submitted by nominees to Emmy judges — say that the new front-runners are last year's champs: "Mad Men" (best drama series), "Breaking Bad's" Bryan Cranston (lead actor), "Damages'" Glenn Close (lead actress), "30 Rock" (comedy series), "30 Rock's" Alec Baldwin (lead actor) and "30 Rock's" Tina Fey (lead actress).
Possible upsets: Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") or Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") might crush Cranston, Steve Carell ("The Office") could humble Baldwin and Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") may trounce Tina Fey. Otherwise, the outcomes of these Emmy races seem pretty much set, according to our kudos prophets. Over the next few weeks, we'll be spotlighting their predix in more detail.
The closest the Emmys came to repeating in the past occurred in 1968 when all of the victorious lead actors in drama and comedy series returned from 1967: Bill Cosby ("I Spy"), Barbara Bain ("Mission: Impossible"), Don Adams ("Get Smart"), and Lucille Ball ("The Lucy Show"). "Mission: Impossible" won best drama series both years, but there were different winners of best comedy. "The Monkees" won in 1967, "Get Smart" in 1968.
Why would it be bad for last year's Emmy champs to repeat? (Why did I put "Uh, oh!" in the headline?) Actually, it wouldn't be terrible from the point of view of justice. Our spies viewing the nominees' episodes tell us that it seems like last year's victors deserve to prevail again. But the TV critics of America don't care about that. Historically, they've demanded that the Emmys reward new, cool faves and, if they dare to bore them with refried beans, they'll hurl their sloppy plates at them with a fury. Remember, I've written the definitive book on these kudos' history ("The Emmys," Penguin Putnam/ Perigee). I can tell you that's how it always plays out whenever there's too much overlap from year to year.
It shouldn't matter what TV critics think. They don't bother to watch the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges. They don't even bother to investigate what episodes were submitted. They don't care. But that doesn't stop them from mouthing huffy condemnations of the Emmys. That's the equivalent of film critics lambasting the Oscars without bothering to see the movies. Thus their opinions are almost worthless, as far as I'm concerned.
Changing the Oscars' voting method in just one category — best picture — is odd. Suddenly, academy leaders believe that using the preferential voting method that's employed now to determine Oscars nominees is the best way to pick a winner in the top race (which will have 10 nominees), but not the others (which will still have five). Thus voters will rank their faves when deciding the best-picture race, but merely check off their number-one choice of a winner in all other categories. Huh?
When Steve Pond (The Wrap) broke the news of the new voting system yesterday, he quoted academy executive director Bruce Davis saying, "There are certain mathematical dangers with more nominees. You could really get a fragmentation to the point where a picture with 18% or 20% of the vote could win, and the board didn't want that to happen."
OK, but why not use the preferential ballot in all Academy Awards races? No doubt the answer to that is: butt out — the Oscars have used the current voting method to determine winners in the vast majority of categories since the 1930s. Can't mess with tradition. When there were more than five nominees for best picture between 1934 and 1943, the preferential ballot was used to choose winners, so that's what must be done again. Period. Oscar tradition and history are sacred.
But that means future voting will be schizophrenic and illogical. To see what that may mean, let's examine what occurred from 1934 to 1943 when there were more than five nominees — and in 1944 and 1945 when there were just five, but preferential voting still decided champs.
In the 63 Oscar derbies since 1945, the films that won best picture also won best director — using the same voting method — 50 times (80% overlap). During the 12 derbies (1934-1945) when schizophrenic voting was used, the two categories agreed eight times (67%).
One of the most notable disagreements between those races back in the old days led to one of Oscar's greatest tragedies: the snubbing of one of Hollywood's greatest directors, Alfred Hitchcock, who ended up going to his grave Oscarless despite the fact that his film, "Rebecca," won best picture of 1940. Hitchcock ended losing the helmer's honor to John Ford ("The Grapes of Wrath").
Doesn't this snub suggest that the same kind of outrage could occur in the future? Doesn't logic suggest that the year's best picture is also its best directed?
Ministers of America railed against "Elmer Gantry" when it debuted on Sept. 1, 1960. Sinclair Lewis' scorching expose of a firebrand, booze-swilling preacher (Burt Lancaster) with a sinful past had been the bestselling book of 1927, but Hollywood studios resisted turning it into a movie for 33 years, fearful of backlash from religious conservatives.
But the film version of "Elmer Gantry" received hallelujah reviews even though it softened Lewis' satire. The New York Times said the "justifiably controversial novel (was) impressively transformed into an exciting film. The briskly paced drama of a religious opportunist, his colleagues and his times utilizes the tools of the motion picture in expert fashion . . . . Lancaster has one of his fattest roles and one to which he gives outstanding service."
At Oscars time, "Elmer Gantry" received five nominations, including best picture (it lost to "The Apartment"), and won three: best actor (Lancaster), supporting actress (Shirley Jones) and adapted screenplay (Richard Brooks). The latter prize was Brooks' consolation for being shut out of a nomination for best director, an award he was nominated for three times during his career: "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof" (1958), "The Professionals" (1966) and "In Cold Blood" (1968). Brooks received bids for helming "Gantry" from DGA and the Golden Globes. "Gantry" was also nominated for best drama picture at the Globes where Lancaster won best drama actor.
In the best-actor slugfest at the Oscars, Lancaster knocked out Spencer Tracy ("Inherit the Wind"), Trevor Howard ("Sons and Lovers"), Jack Lemmon ("The Apartment") and Laurence Olivier ("The Entertainer"). In the diva smackdown over supporting actress, Jones' role as a shady lady triumphed over Janet Leigh ("Psycho"), Mary Ure ("Sons and Lovers"), Shirley Knight ("The Dark at the Top of the Stairs") and Glynis Johns ("The Sundowners").
In the Emmy election for best guest actress in a comedy series, one rival towers over all others: Tina Fey on "Saturday Night Live" as Sarah Palin. Easily, it was the most celebrated and even most important TV performance of the year because it played a starring role in the U.S. presidential election. So theoretically she's a shoo-in to win this lowly Emmy race, right?
Yes, but only in theory. Remember who votes here: snooty actors, who may not take an impersonation on a comedy-skit show seriously when measured against grand theatrical mugging in a traditional program with plot and character development. Last year, many of us pundits thought Amy Poehler ("Saturday Night Live") had the Emmy for best supporting actress in the bag, but voter bias against skit shows propelled Jean Smart ("Samantha Who?") to an upset victory.
Both of our gurus, Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net), who've viewed the episodes submitted to Emmy judges, believe Fey will prevail, but they're keenly aware of this voter bias too and believe an upset could happen easily. Read their expanded views below. Also check out their (often clashing) predix in these categories: best comedy series, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor, supporting actress, guest actor, comedy writing and comedy directing. Read more in our forums.
BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Listed in likelihood of winning)
1. Tina Fey, "Saturday Night Live" ("Presidential Bash 2008")
2. Betty White, "My Name Is Earl" ("Witch Lady")
3. Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock" ("Christmas Special")
4. Christine Baranski, "Big Bang Theory" ("The Maternal Capacitance")
5. Jennifer Aniston, "30 Rock" ("One With the Cast of Night Court")
6. Gena Rowlands, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk & the Lady Next Door")
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Unlike the guest actor category, there doesn't seem to be a single trend to predicting who will win among the ladies. In recent years, veteran actresses (Cloris Leachman, Stritch, Kathryn Joosten) have won. A younger actress (Christina Applegate) and slightly older actress (Laura Linney) have won. I would say, in general, that the Emmy voters want to laugh and want good characters.
If you're looking for a previous Emmy winner, this category is completely loaded down with them (all six ladies have won before). In viewing these performances, I must admit that I was disappointed that Rowlands didn't have all that much to do on her episode of "Monk." While other characters had some funny things to do, she did not (although she does a wonderful job in what she is given).
Aniston is upbeat and silly, allowing her to play some funny personality traits that we don't often see from her. I would be surprised with a Rowlands or Aniston victory. Everybody else, though, has a decent shot.
Baranski, tremendously funny as the buttoned-down professor and mother of Leonard, gets some hilarious scenes with Jim Parsons. Stritch has proved she can win with her portrayal of Alec Baldwin's mother and even gets a couple of nice sentimental holiday moments on this episode.
White is someone beloved by Emmy voters and plays a character unlike anyone we have ever seen her play before: a crazy witch neighbor who chains up all the regular cast members in her basement. Any other year, she would easily win yet another Emmy Award, but there is one person standing in her way: Fey as Sarah Palin. In a performance that was a comedy highlight of the decade, Fey also most likely influenced an entire presidential election. I just don't see how the voters are going to pass up the chance to honor something so iconic and memorable.
BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY: ROB'S PREDIX
(Listed in likelihood of winning)
1.) Tina Fey, "Saturday Night Live" ("Presidential Bash 2008")
2.) Betty White, "My Name Is Earl" ("Witch Lady")
3.) Christine Baranski, "Big Bang Theory" ("The Maternal Capacitance")
4.) Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock" ("Christmas Special")
5.) Jennifer Aniston, "30 Rock" ("One With the Cast of Night Court")
6.) Gena Rowlands, "Monk" ("Mr. Monk & the Lady Next Door")
ROB'S COMMENTARY: This category could go any way because, as is the case for all four of the guest acting categories, the winners are sometimes based on other factors such as name recognition and honoring industry veterans. Since 2000, we've had three double winners, all being highly regarded industry vets (Jean Smart, Cloris Leachman and Kathryn Joosten); two high-profile winners (Christina Applegate and Laura Linney); and comedy legend Stritch, for the same role she is nominated for this year. Four of the wins were for traditional sitcoms ("Friends" and "Frasier"), three for single-camera comedies ("Malcolm in the Middle" and "30 Rock"), and both of Kathryn Joosten's wins were for her role in the hourlong dramedy "Desperate Housewives."
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