When it comes to making tough Emmy Awards predictions, no one comes out swinging harder than our gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net), who join me in this video dishing the rivals for best comedy series: "Entourage," "Family Guy," "How I Met Your Mother," "Flight of the Conchords," "The Office," "30 Rock" and "Weeds."

Also check out Rob's and Boomer's in-depth noodling of these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead drama actor, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

"30 Rock" has not only triumphed as Emmy's best comedy series for the last two years, it's never lost and may be unbeatable. Two reasons: it's a shrewdly crafted satire (arguably, it actually deserves to win) and Emmy voters are TV industry insiders who can't resist its devilish take on their own workaday world. You must wonder: at some point, won't voters finally get bored with it winning every year, rebel and pick something else? Reality check: "Frasier" won this slot five years in a row and it wasn't even about the TV biz. It was about the radio biz — in Seattle.

Both of our Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) think, like I do, that "30 Rock" is a shoo-in to prevail again. Below, more of their reasoning and handicapping.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Entourage"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Family Guy"
6.) "Flight of the Conchords"
7.) "Weeds"
 
BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: Unlike some of the acting categories, I think it's a done deal that "30 Rock" will pick up its third consecutive Emmy in the top comedy race. First and foremost, they aced their episode choices with six of the absolute best and funniest of the season. Secondly, the biggest competition (and previous winner) is "The Office," which needed to be perfect in their episode choices to have a decent shot at a win. They did a great job except for the episode "Golden Ticket," which was just a mediocre selection.

I really don't believe any of the other shows have a realistic chance of winning this category.  Looking back over the past 40 years of the Emmys, only one show has won the comedy series award without having at least one directing or writing nomination (that was "Friends" in 2002, when it was the overwhelming favorite to win anyway). I love statistics when predicting, so for my purposes it effectively eliminates "Family Guy," "How I Met Your Mother" and "Weeds" from consideration since they don't have those other nominations.

A victory by either of the other two nominated series ("Entourage" or "Flight of the Conchords") would be the upset of a lifetime.

Congratulations to Tina Fey, Lorne Michaels and the rest of the "30 Rock" team on another well-deserved win!

BEST COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1.) "30 Rock"
2.) "The Office"
3.) "Family Guy"
4.) "How I Met Your Mother"
5.) "Flight of the Conchords"
6.) "Weeds"
7.) "Entourage"

ROB'S COMMENTARY: I think Boomer's theory that a series is not likely to win in this category without directing and writing nominations is a good one. That being said, I have rearranged the list according to how I think each of the series might fare, depending on what I perceive to be their potential core fan base. Remember, with seven nominated series, any one of them would presumably need around 15% of the votes to scrape through with a win. My math is not the best, but you hopefully know what I'm getting at.

I think that it is safe to say that "30 Rock" will win this again. With a 22 nominations (a record for a comedy series), it is the industry favorite, probably the hottest comedy on TV and does not look like it can be beaten, regardless of what episodes it submitted to voters. In its favor is that it has submitted six of its very best ones, which will more than likely propel it to a repeat victory.

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Emmy-savvy HBO was smart to release the DVD set of the first season of "True Blood" just before voting commenced in June. In week five, it sold 107,115 units (1,099,995 total, nearly $38 million), according to The-Numbers.com.

"True Blood" came in second place among TV titles for the week, behind the debut of Season 7 of "Family Guy," which sold 273,627 units ($7.6 million). Why did Fox miss its big chance to grandstand with a DVD media blitz when Emmy nom voting commenced? To be consistent with how s-l-o-w its characters notoriously are? (Well, except for Stewie and that upright walking doggie.) This year, "Family Guy" ditched the Emmy race for best animated program in order to make the bold drive to be the second cartoon show ever nominated for outstanding comedy series after "The Flintstones" (1961 – it lost to "The Jack Benny Program"), so it could've used the extra push.

Well, at least the producers of "Family Guy" are about to find out if Emmy voters really have a good sense of humor — especially an appreciation for the kind of bawdy joshing that's a signature of its outrageous show. They decided to get voters to pay attention to their ploy to move "Family Guy" from the race for best animated program to the lofty contest for best comedy series by insulting, tweaking and shocking them. Only one other cartoon show has ever made it into the comedy contest: "The Flinstones," which lost to "The Jack Benny Program" in 1961.

Check out the DVD "For Your Consideration" campaign package recently shipped to all 14,000 TV academy members, including images that can be seen by clicking on the "continued" link at the bottom of this post. Featured are these zinger messages: "We peaked three years ago, so by your logic we should get an Emmy now"  and " 'Family Guy': with Tina Fey! (Not really, we just want an Emmy)."

Three episodes are contained on the enclosed DVD: "I Dream of Jesus," "Road to Germany" and "Family Gay."

Cheer up, Amy Poehler fans. Just because some TV critics aren't wild about the pilot episode of "Parks and Recreation," her new sitcom debuting tonight on NBC, doesn't mean it can't rally in coming weeks — and at the upcoming Emmys. Many of the critics pooh-poohing "Parks and Recreation" as a weak imitation of  "The Office" — from the show's same creators, Greg Daniels and Mike Schur — are the same sourpusses who once dismissed NBC's "The Office" as a pale imitation of the hit British original starring Ricky Gervais. The re-tooled Yankee version of "The Office" got the last laugh, winning the Emmy for comedy series at the end of its first season (2005-2006).

"Parks and Recreation" has some quick catching up to do, being a mid-season, spring replacement series with just a handful of episodes airing before the end of the Emmy eligibility period (May 31), but that timing can also be beneficial, since it'll be fresh on voters' minds.

But the race for best comedy series is no laughing matter this year. Of the five nominees last year, "30 Rock" (winner in 2007 and 2008), "Entourage," "The Office" and "Two and a Half Men" look like good bets to return. "Curb Your Enthusiasm" isn't eligible. Which show will claim the remaining slots? Remember, due to a new rule change, there will be six or seven nominees instead of the usual five. No new show has been a break-out smash hit. "United States of Tara" was well received. Ditto "Better Off Ted." However, neither had socko ratings, which matter a lot because the nominees will now be determined strictly by a popular ballot. There won't be judging panels this year to boost a lower-rated show's chances. "Parks and Recreation" will benefit from being a hugely touted prestige series airing on NBC's Thursday night lineup.

The producers of "Family Guy" came so close to being nominated for best comedy series at the Emmys last year that they plan to try it again, Gold Derby has learned exclusively.

However, there's a glitch — and a major sacrifice the show must now make. Last year, due to a quirk in the Emmy rules, "Family Guy" was able to gamble on nabbing a bid for best comedy without abandoning the separate race for best animated program. The latter category permits ongoing series to compete against stand-alone specials. Since "Family Guy" had a notable special — its celebrated "Star Wars" spoof titled "Blue Harvest" — it could enter that for best animated program (it lost to "South Park's" Imaginationland") while also entering "Family Guy" for best comedy series ("30 Rock" won). "Family Guy" will not be eligible in the race for best animated program this year.

"Family Guy" didn't get nominated for best laffer last year, but it came close. It was one of the top 10 semi-finalists after a popular vote of the TV academy's 13,000 members. There won't be a semi-finalist run-off this year since judging panels will no longer determine nominees after screening sample episodes, but the number of nominees will be increased to six or seven from the usual five, thus giving "Family Guy" some Emmy hope.

But perhaps it's only slim hope. Obviously, there's a bias against animated fare at the Emmys just like the Oscars, which recently had to create a separate category for best animated feature after repeated, embarrassing snubs in the best picture race. Only one animated film has ever been nominated for best picture at the Academy Awards: "Beauty and the Beast" (1991). At the Emmys, only one animated show has ever been nominated for best comedy or drama series: "The Flintstones" (1961). Alas, "The Jack Benny Show" got the last laugh back then.

Not too long ago "The Simpsons" tried what "Family Guy" is attempting. After sweeping the animation race in the early 1990s, "The Simpsons" moved over to compete in the comedy category, but got shut out in 1993 and 1994. Then frustrated producers gave up in 1995 and moved back to animation.

Biggest (nice) Emmy Awards surprise: Not only did FX network's "Damages" and AMC's "Mad Men" get nominated for best drama series, as widely predicted, but Showtime's "Dexter" did too. So all three now reign as the first non-HBO cable series ever to be nominated for either best drama or comedy at the Emmys.

Meantime, terrible news for HBO: This is the first time since 1998 that the pay channel doesn't have a show in the lineup for best drama series at the Emmy nominations! Since "The Sopranos" appeared in the race in 1999, it and/or its network kin "Deadwood" or "Six Feet Under" filled at least one slot. On two occasions, HBO had two shows in the drama series category: 2005 ("Deadwood" and "Six Feet Under") and 2003 ("The Sopranos," "Six Feet Under").

Basic cable also did better than ever in the lead acting races at the Emmy nominations. (I haven't done the math yet in the supporting slots.) If my counting is correct, there are nine actors from basic-cable TV series up for best lead actor or actress in a drama or comedy series. The previous record was eight for 2007 and 2003. Happily, there's one great shockeroo here to make the TV critics dance: Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), who never won an Emmy for portraying a different kind of wigged-out dad in "Malcolm in the Middle."

The absence of "Family Guy" in the comedy series category is my biggest personal disappointment. If it had made it, "Family Guy" would've become the first cartoon series nominated for best comedy series since "The Flintstones" in 1961. To read about more Emmy snubs, CLICK HERE.

Unlike their discord over drama series, our top-notch Emmy gurus — Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria — agree on the comedy series that will be in the running when nominations are announced on Thursday morning. As per the boys, the final five should be: last year's winner "30 Rock;" 2006 champ "The Office;" perennial nominee "Curb Your Enthusiasm;" top-rated "Two and a Half Men;" and newcomer "Pushing Daisies."

To determine the nominees, Rob and Boomer follow the actual voting process. First, they predict the order of the top 10 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote of the entire TV academy.

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) "30 Rock" 2.) "The Office" 3.) "Two and a Half Men" 4.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm" 5.) "Pushing Daisies" 6.) "Entourage" 7.) "Ugly Betty" 8.) "Weeds" 9.) "Flight of the Conchords 10.) "Family Guy"

Here's how Boomer thinks the popular vote tallied — 1.) "The Office" 2.) "30 Rock" 3.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm"4.) "Ugly Betty" 5.) "Entourage" 6.) "Pushing Daisies" 7.) "Two and a Half Men" 8.) "Weeds" 9.) "Flight of the Conchords" 10.) "Family Guy"

Then, they calculate how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries.

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) "30 Rock" 2.) "Pushing Daisies" 3.) "Two and a Half Men" 4.) "The Office" 5.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm"6.) "Family Guy" 7.) "Entourage" 8.) "Flight of the Conchords 9.) "Weeds" 10.) "Ugly Betty"

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) "Pushing Daisies" 2.) "Two and a Half Men" 3.) "30 Rock"4.) "The Office" 5.) "Family Guy"6.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm" 7.) "Entourage" 8.) "Ugly Betty" 9.) "Weeds" 10.) "Flight of the Conchords"

Combining these results on a 50-50 basis, just like the academy accountants do, they determine the final ranking of the nominees. The lower the final number, the higher the ranking.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) "The Office" ("Local Ad") — 5 points
1.) "30 Rock" ("Cooter") — 5 points
3.) "Pushing Daisies" ("Pie-Lette") — 7 points
4.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("The Bat Mitzvah") — 9 points
4.) "Two and a Half Men" ("Rough Night in Hump Junction") — 9 points
6.) "Entourage" ("The Day ...") — 12 points
6.) "Ugly Betty" ("Something Wicked This Way Comes") — 12 points
8.) "Family Guy" ("Padre de Famila") — 15 points
9.) "Weeds" ("Go") — 17 points
10.) "Flight of the Conchords" ("Sally Returns") — 19 points

BEST COMEDY SERIES: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) "30 Rock" ("Cooter") — 3 points
2.) "The Office" ("Local Ad") — 6 points
2.) "Pushing Daisies" ("Pie-lette") — 6 points
2.) "Two and a Half Men" ("Rough Night in Hump Junction") — 6 points
5.) "Curb Your Enthusiasm" ("The Bat Mitzvah") — 9 points
6.) "Entourage" ("The Day ...") — 13 points
7.) "Family Guy" ("Padre de Famila") — 16 points
8.) "Flight of the Conchords" ("Sally Returns") — 17 points
8.) "Ugly Betty" ("Something Wicked This Way Comes") — 17 points
8.) "Weeds" ("Go") — 17 points

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Ray Richmond of the Hollywood Reporter and I don't really hate each other, though I'm sure it might look like that when we get into our frequent slugfests over award predix. In fact, I absolutely love beating up on Ray more than any other journalist — really, and that's saying something. Here we go at it over what will be nominated for Emmys this Thursday morning and, to prove what a noble gent I am, I let Ray have the first word (so that I — ha, ha, ha — could have the last . . . well, at least until nominations come out).

BEST COMEDY SERIES
RAY: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Family Guy," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock"
TOM: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock," "Two and a Half Men"

RAY: Yes, "Family Guy" makes the cut -- not necessarily because it deserves to, but because the TV Academy loses its marbles every once in a while. And this is that once. The only other question is whether "Pushing Daisies" gets pushed out by its ABC sister "Ugly Betty," but Betty has so dropped from the radar I'm thinking not. "Weeds"? Only if Woody Harrelson takes over the voting process from those bean counters in suits.

TOM: Obviously, Ray, you were partying with Woody when you made these Emmy predix if you really think that "Family Guy" will get in over "2.5 Men." The latter's been nominated every year that the TV academy has had these panels — that is, the last two years. The last (and ONLY) time a cartoon sneaked into this comedy lineup was "The Flintstones" MORE THAN 45 YEARS AGO — back before computers, cable TV and double Pinkberry scoops — when the Emmy counters were using real beans.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
RAY & TOM: "Boston Legal," "Damages," "Grey's Anatomy," "House," "Mad Men"

RAY: "Mad Men" and "Damages" are locks. "House" probably is too. I'm thinking "Grey's" gets in over "Lost." "Boston Legal" is in because it is written that David Kelley shall always be in the running in some fashion. "The Wire"? No matter how deserving, it's probably a miracle it made it even this far.

TOM: Uh-oh. Ray and I are in total agreement here. Why does that terrify me so?

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
RAY: Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")
TOM: Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")

RAY: Spader's a lock because he talks so slowly and intensely, it seems, but he ain't winning this time. Hamm's the one to beat seemingly. And the AMC momentum with "Mad Men" could — I pray — carry Cranston in. He is SO deserving. But he could get beaten out by Byrne, just because he's Gabriel Byrne. Hall deserves a nom for sure, and Laurie has deserved to win for three years running. He still does. But he won't. But if he doesn't get nominated, I say firebomb the ATAS headquarters and let's just start over.

TOM: Yeah, Hamm, Laurie and Spader are in. Ray (amazingly) is right about those, but he's wrong about Spader not winning again. Come on, Spader's NEVER LOST. He's gone three for three in this race and the reason he won repeatedly in the past was because writer/producer David E. Kelley kept penning him those grandstanding speeches he'd spew to juries at the end of each episode of "Boston Legal" that he submitted to Emmy judges. This year Spader submits his BIGGEST speech doozy ever — in which he chews out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. How can Hollywood lefties NOT vote THAT? READ MORE

As for Ray's deluded hope that Cranston will get in — well, I'd cheer that if it happened, but it won't. Cranston would have to rank in the top seven or so places in the popular vote and I think that's unlikely for a new, lowly rated, cable show about a guy toying with crystal meth and terminal cancer. Denis Leary's been nommed consistently for the past three years, surviving all wacky, radical changes in the voting process. I see no reason why he suddenly gets bumped now.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
RAY & TOM: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Minnie Driver ("The Riches"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

RAY: This is probably the easiest major category to handicap. It's difficult for me to see it being anyone other than Close, Driver, Field, Hunter and Sedgwick, though Arquette or Moss could pull an upset if enough of their relatives are permitted to vote (and Moss surely would deserve it). Field could also be victimized by backlash to last year's dead-on but controversial acceptance speech ("You gagged me, you really gagged me!"). Close will win, however. End of story.

TOM: Ray and I are in agreement again. Shoot me.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
RAY: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")
TOM: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), David Duchovny ("Californication"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

RAY: Baldwin was jobbed last year in favor of "Extras' Ricky Gervais, and everyone knows it. Probably won't happen again. He and Carell are slam dunks, as is Shalhoub. David only seems to generate greater affection for his misanthropic "Curn" role as the years pile up, so he's likely in too along with the charming Pace (who could be edged out by Emmy darling Garrett, but I don't think so).

TOM: Ray may have blundered upon a smart set of predix here and he may even out-score me because — what the heck — I feel like throwing some Emmy dice. Betting against Shalhoub to return may be foolish. He's been nommed for the last five years, winning three times (2003, 2005, 2006), but his episode entry this year is a bit weak ("Mr. Monk and the Naked Man"), which will bring down his typical judges' score. And I think his popular-vote score will be down, too, because he's old news. Sure, Duchovny's old Emmy news too — he used to be nommed routinely for "The X-Files," so we know that voters love him — and now his comeback in new series "Californication" is sexy.

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