On the Oscars' red carpet in 2008, Miley Cyrus shared a secret dream with Ryan Seacrest while they chatted on E!: "One day I'll be here with my own movie!"

Ridiculous, you say? Bite your tongue. Last year, Miley actually came close to nabbing an Oscar nomination in the race for best song as co-writer of "I Thought I Lost You," the tune from "Bolt." It was nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, but, alas, got snubbed by the academy.

Now, more bad Oscar news for Miley fans. Even though she may appear to be in the running for "Don't Walk Away" — a song that she co-wrote, which appears in the film version of "Hannah Montana" — it's not eligible because it wasn't written specifically for the movie. One song from "Hannah Montana" is being submitted for the Oscars' best-song race, "Butterfly Fly Away," but she doesn't share composition credit with Glen Ballard and Alan Silvestri. Pity. Both were nominated for penning "Believe," sung by Josh Groban in "Polar Express" (2004). The song lost to "Al otro lado del rio" from "The Motorcycle Diaries."

Groban didn't share the nomination for "Believe" because singers don't count at the Oscars, just the writers. Thus Miley can't be nominated for "Butterfly Fly Away," which she croons with her poppa, Billy Ray Cyrus.

That means Adam Lambert can't be nominated for crooning "Time for Miracles," which he sings in "2012." He doesn't share co-writing credit. But that doesn't matter anyway because "Time for Miracles" isn't eligible for Oscar consideration — it wasn't written specifically for the film.

Photo of Miley Cyrus by WireImage; photo of Adam Lambert by Fox TV

NOTE: An earlier version of this blog item incorrectly stated that Miley Cyrus was co-writer of "The Climb," which also is featured in "Hannah Montana." While "The Climb" is not eligible at the Oscars, it is being submitted for nomination consideration at the Golden Globes.

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• While the price of gold skyrockets, the Oscars are having to make this year's statues with less money in the kitty. Michael Cieply reports, "net assets for the fiscal year ended June 30 fell slightly, to $228.8 million, from $235.3 million the year before, as cash dwindled a bit and investments fell." And says Cieply, "Income from the Academy Awards rose about 3.5%, to $76.3 million from $73.7 million in 2008. Still, this year’s awards ceremony was more expensive. Awards-related expenses rose 6.8%, to $33.2 million from $31.1 million." NEW YORK TIMES

• Among the tasty tidbits offered up by Greg Ellwood in his comprehensive preview of the Golden Globes are the notion that Sandra Bullock ("The Proposal," "The Blind Side"), Meryl Streep ("Julie and Julia," "It's Complicated"), George Clooney ("The Men Who Stare At Goats," "Up in the Air") and Stanley Tucci ("Julie and Julia," "The Lovely Bones") "all have a legitimate shot at double acting nods" and that "global critical standouts such as Neil Bloomkamp's 'District 9' may receive the deserved recognition Oscar may deny them." HIT FIX

• Jeff Wells conducts a compelling interview with "Crazy Heart" star Maggie Gyllenhaal. Jeff prefaces his three-part video chat by commenting, "her performance works for everyone and then some, but is it leading or supporting? I saw it as supporting from the get-go, which didn't strike me as a problem in the least. The Fox Searchlight guys were feeling differently about this a week or two ago, but maybe they've come around." HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE

• Melinda Newman has put together a fun and fact-filled photo gallery of possible contenders for the new artist award at this year's Grammys. As Melinda notes in her intro, "Lady GaGa, the obvious winner, isn’t eligible because 'Just Dance' was nominated for best dance recording last year. Two other possible contenders, Phoenix and Kid Cudi, are also not eligible." HIT FIX

• "Superior Donuts," the well-received new play by Tracy Letts, is shuttering after just 16 weeks on Broadway. As Gordon Cox writes, "The show was Letts’ Rialto follow-up to his Tony and Pulitzer-winner 'August: Osage County,' but unlike that play, 'Donuts' never gained much momentum at the box office. Helmed by Tina Landau, 'Donuts' stars Michael McKean as the owner of a doughnut shop in a run-down part of Chicago. Co-star Jon Michael Hill has attracted attention for his well-reviewed perf as the shop owner’s young employee." VARIETY

• Pete Hammond reports, "Quentin Tarantino turned moderator for a SAG screening of 'Inglourious Basterds' Sunday, with 10 of his actors fielding questions at the post-screening Q&A. Guild members reportedly started lining up at 8:30 a.m. for the noon event that also featured a casual and bearded Brad Pitt, who was mobbed by paparazzi when the panel finally ended. Quentin, who loves doing this sort of thing, kept it going even after publicists were waving at him to end it for nearly 20 minutes." NOTES ON A SEASON

• Steve Pond does a crackerjack job interviewing Oscar contender Viggo Mortensen ("The Road"). Mortensen admitted, "I’ve never been in a movie where the character was dealing with this much sadness and dread all the way through. There are scary moments and entertaining moments, but still, inside he’s carrying a burden emotionally. How do you do that realistically, as an actor, and get it across so that it’s as real as the open wound of nature around us? That was a measuring stick. We couldn’t be any less real than what we were traveling through, these dead or dying landscapes." THE ODDS

Photos: HFPA, Playbill

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My, my, I'm going to have to cook up a huge batch of crow to serve so many of my colleagues who responded to my prediction that "Inglourious Basterds" will win the Oscar for best picture by hurling weapons of mass destruction.

Some of them not only freaked out over my "Basterds" call, they went all ballistic. Granted, many like to dismiss anything I say because of, ahem, a few bad calls in the past like "Sweeney Todd" or "Dreamgirls." OK, OK, but I've made some bold, prescient ones too. Let me remind you that I was the first pundit on the planet to declare that "Crash" could win best picture. Read my warning here, which was posted in early January 2006 prior to the Golden Globes, where "Crash" wasn't even nominated.

Oh yeah, and when 95% of my colleagues forecast Julie Christie ("Away From Her") would win best actress, wasn't I one of the few brave souls correctly forecasting Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose")? Today, most Oscarologists will claim that they predicted Cotillard, but that's just another case of convenient prognosticator amnesia, an epidemic disease. Look back through Envelope's Buzzmeter to see who really did so. You'll notice that nearly all of the pundits named in this blog article slamming me picked Christie over Cotillard.

Over at The Wrap, under the headline "'Basterds' a Best-Pic Winner? Nope," Steve Pond gives me a good rappin', deconstructing my prediction, then adding, "Sorry, Tom. I’m not buying this one."

Too bad, Steve. This prediction is going for a sale price right now. You'll regret this later ... when the derby outcome will cost you and your prognosticator reputation dearly.

Jeff Wells pooh-poohs the whole thing at Hollywood-Elsewhere: "Trust me -- this won't happen. We're living in anxious, racially attuned, recession-afflicted times, and that means 'Up In The Air' -- the only film by my measure that has that dignified, settled, summing-up-everyone-and-everything vibe -- or 'Invictus' will take it. Enjoyable as it is and admired in some quarters, there is no discernible echo and spiritual after-effect in 'Inglorious Basterds' …. I'm not alone in this thinking. In Contention's Kris Tapley has 'Basterds' and director-writer Quentin Tarantino ranked pretty far down."

Yes, that's true. Kris not only doesn't list "Basterds" or Tarantino in his predix, but he ranks both way down on his lists of possibilities, in the fourth tier of potential nominees, down below "Bright Star" and "The Last Station." Scott Feinberg (And The Winner Is...) is so proud of the fact that his view is the same as Kris' that he actually boasts about it in the comments section of Jeff Wells' post! Tisk, tisk, tisk.

Over in the comments section of InContention.com, Guy Lodge disses me too: "Tom O’Neil has suggested 'Basterds' can win best picture, and he's probably just spinning his wheels. I’ll gladly eat my hat if that happens."

OK, so that means I should fry up an old fedora to serve Guy on the side with his crow come March 7. Gotta remember that.

Greg Ellwood will get a side order of extra-stinky Limburger for writing this about my "Basterds" predix at HitFix: "There are more holes in his theory than a slice of swiss cheese you'd get with a deli sandwich at Canters on Fairfax. This prognosticator is a big fan of "Basterds," but to say it's going to win at this point is just a nice reach for page views.  Remember 'Sweeney Todd,' Tom?"

Yes, Greg, I remember my bum "Sweeney Todd" call well. Why don't you flag some of my brilliant early calls like "Crash," eh? Once, during a chitchat we had, you claimed that someone else -- Pete Hammond, you said -- sounded the "Crash" warning in an article earlier than I did. Really? As I told you then, I don't think so. Send me the link to that or to anyone else who blasted that trumpet before me. I'd like to read it … while I crank up my stove and prepare some yummy supper for you … and our cyber comrades. Bring a good appetite to the pity party.

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Illustration by Ty Wilson

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The Golden Globe for best animated feature is so new that it's only been bestowed three times ("Wall-E," "Ratatouille," "Cars"). Each time there were only three nominees, just like at the Oscars during the last three derbies. But now that it looks like the Oscar category will expand to five slots this year, so will the Globes.

At the Oscars, the size of the category is determined by the number of contenders in the mix. The category expands to five nominees if more than 16 animated features qualify per year. Here's the new rule from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.:

"Eligible films must be feature length (70 minutes or longer) with no more than 25% live action. If less than eight animated films qualify, the award will not be given, in which case the films would be eligible for Best Picture. If less than twelve animated films qualify, the category will be limited to three nominations per year."

Photo: Walt Disney

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I'm beginning to think that this may be one of those Oscar derbies in which the front-runner is really behind us and everybody, at this place on the track and the calendar, is looking at the wrong horses. Remember those years when pre-autumn releases "Annie Hall," "Braveheart" and "Gladiator" came trotting back, triumphant, into the derby after late-year releases tripped up?

Yes, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" is a front-runner, one of several, and will nab nominations for best picture, director, screenplay, actress and supporting actress. I think it's guaranteed of at least one win: Gabourey Sidibe for best actress. Probably Mo'Nique for supporting actress too, but there's room for an upstart victory here. However, I think "Precious" may be too small of an art-house flick to WIN best picture, and I don't think it's going to have the kind of widespread support across the academy's tech branches that's usually needed to win best picture.

Let's face it. Odds are against Clint Eastwood's "Invictus," regardless of how good it is. Two of his flicks already have won best picture: "Million Dollar Baby" and "Unforgiven." Only one director has helmed three best-pic champs in the pasy — William Wyler: ("Mrs. Miniver," "Best Years of Our Lives," "Ben-Hur").

"The Lovely Bones" looks good, but it's a killer thriller. Yes, that didn't slay the Oscar hopes of "No Country for Old Men," but that quality is usually fatal.

Rob Marshall is such a maestro of theatrical direction that I'm sure "Nine" will be a grand entertainment, but his "Chicago" already beat the odds stacked against musicals winning best picture in this cynical cinema age. Two superb recent tuners, "Sweeney Todd" and "Dreamgirls," both failed to be nominated, so "Nine" faces tough odds to win.

"Up in the Air" is a good film, but its plot may be too light (George Clooney has a midlife crisis while striving for frequent-flyer miles) to soar to such lofty Oscar heights. Hmmm … so what's left?

Because best pictures tend to be chosen based on who directs them, let's look over the list of five likely nominees. Yep, Eastwood will make the cut, of course. Probably "Up in the Air's" Jason Reitman and "The Lovely Bones" Peter Jackson too. Lee Daniels is a good bet based on the gathering buzz for his film, but although "Precious" is a great dramatic achievement, it may not be regarded by academy members as an exceptional directorial one. Not flashy enough. Marshall's "Nine" sure looks flashy, but, as noted above, I'm skeptical of musicals these days. Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker") is a long shot considering that only three other women have ever nabbed noms for best director in the academy's 80-year history..

Then, there will be … hmmmm … Quentin Tarantino.

There's a lot of passion behind "Inglourious Basterds" within the academy, at least among voters I've spoken to, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. My spies tell me that Golden Globe voters are so crazy about "Basterds" that it's absolutely guaranteed of nominations for best drama picture and director, screenplay and supporting actor (Christoph Waltz).

The growing trend toward adding more entertainment to award shows just took a curious twist. The Golden Globes announced that Ricky Gervais will host the show Jan. 17, marking the first time that the award ceremony has had an emcee since 1995. John Larroquette ("Night Court," "The John Larroquette Show") and Janine Turner ("Northern Exposure") were the last to have the job, serving jointly as ringmasters the last time TBS aired the Golden Globes telecast before NBC's takeover.

Gervais is a smart choice for several reasons — he's considered ultra-hip by the cognoscenti and he's handled himself deftly, and hilariously, at award shows in the past. Most memorable were his antics at the Emmys in 2008, one year after he failed to show up for his upset victory as best comedy actor for "Extras." Watch the YouTube video below to recall his wacky exchange with Steve Carell that was so slick many viewers initially believed it wasn't scripted. A few weeks earlier, he admitted that he was plotting a diabolical stunt when he did a podcast chat with us at Gold Derby (listen here).

At the most recent Globes, Gervais raised eyebrows when he appeared at the podium and teased "The Reader" star Kate Winslet about finally winning her first statuette from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association: "I told you. Do a Holocaust movie and the awards come! Didn't I?"

But Gervais is also an appropriate choice to host the next HFPA kudocast considering that the Globes paid a huge role in bringing the British comedian to prominence in the U.S. Six years ago he was just marginally on the Hollywood radar as the dumpy, oddball star of the quirky U.K. TV comedy series "The Office," which was reaping minuscule TV ratings on BBC America. Most award-watchers were shocked when it pulled off Golden Globe nominations for best comedy series and lead actor and certainly didn't think it had any chance of winning. The fact that the show broke through with such high-ranking nominations was credited to the fact that voters are foreigners, so therefore more attuned to British TV largely unfamiliar to Yankee audiences.

But "The Office" won the comedy trophy over Emmy champ "Arrested Development," frequent Globes fave "Sex and the City," "Monk" and "Will & Grace." Gervais won best comedy actor over Matt LeBlanc ("Friends"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"), Bernie Mac ("The Bernie Mac Show") and Eric McCormack ("Will & Grace").

Usually, I'm backstage in the press room during most Globes ceremonies, but that year I sat at a banquet table in the audience with the stars and got to witness up close how flabbergasted everyone was by the victories.

But when Gervais triumphed twice at the Globes with a low-rated, little-known show, it signaled that he was becoming a serious Hollywood player. In recent years, awards bloggers have bandied his name around as a possible Oscar host, but it was unlikely that he could land that post considering his low Q score. He's perfect for the Globes gig, though, and, if he does well on stage at the Beverly Hilton, he may have a future shot to hold forth at the Kodak Theatre.

Photo: BBC

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On June 14, Bonhams & Butterfield will auction off part of the estate of Estelle Getty, who died last July just three days before her 85th birthday. Items up for grabs include two awards she nabbed as the feisty, wise-cracking Sophia on "The Golden Girls" (1985-92). She was nominated seven times in the supporting race at the Emmys, winning in 1988 over Jackee Harry ("227"), Rhea Perlman ("Cheers"), Julia Duffy ("Newhart") Katherine Helmond ("Who's the Boss?").

At the Golden Globes in 1986, Getty was nominated in the lead acting race against three "Golden Girls" costars — Beatrice Arthur, Rue McClanahan and Betty White — plus Cybill Shepherd ("Moonlighting"). She tied for the win with Shepherd.

The auction will also sell the straw purse (sale estimate $1,000-$1,200) and eyeglasses ($400-$600) she wore while starring on the TV series.

At the same auction, Bonhams will also sell the Tony Award won by Gertrude Berg as best actress of 1959 for starring in "A Majority of One." The full auction catalog will be posted on line soon at this link.

Don't be shy about acquiring these showbiz treasures. Check out my own personal collection here, here and here.

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Photos: Bonhams, ATAS

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If Johnny Depp is the actor most overdue to win an Oscar, is Michelle Pfeiffer his female equivalent? Twenty-one years ago, she earned the first of her three Oscar nods for playing the innocent in "Dangerous Liaisons." Michelle Pfeiffer lost the supporting actress race to Geena Davis at her quirkiest in "The Accidental Tourist." Since then she has contended twice for lead actress, losing her 1989 bid for "The Fabulous Baker Boys" to "Driving Miss Daisy" star Jessica Tandy and her 1992 nod for "Love Field" to Emma Thompson for "Howards End."

Following a fallow period in her career, Michelle Pfeiffer returned to the screen two years ago as the campy villainess in "Hairspray," which earned a SAG ensemble nod. (It lost to eventual Oscar champ "No Country for Old Men".) In that frothy musical, Pfeiffer put the moves on Christopher Walken in a sizzling song and dance number. In "Cheri," due out June 19, she stars as a seductress who woos the young son (Rupert Friend) of her courtesan friend (Oscar winner Kathy Bates, "Misery").

The film reunites Michelle Pfeiffer with "Dangerous Liaisons" director Stephen Frears ("The Queen") and screenwriter Christopher Hampton, who won an Oscar back then for adapting his play. Now he has worked his magic on the landmark 1920 novel by Colette ("Gigi"). In and out of gorgeous costumes, Michelle Pfeiffer certainly does not look her 50 years. If any veteran actress can keep pace with the younger fillies in the awards derby it is this stunner.

Certainly, Michelle Pfeiffer is likely to be a Golden Globe nominee, especially if the film is categorized as a comedy where there is always a need to fill the ranks. She earned six consecutive Golden Globe nominations beginning in 1988. She lost her first comedy Globe nod for "Married to the Mob" in 1988 to "Working Girl" Melanie Griffith and her second in 1991 for "Frankie and Johnny" to Bette Midler in "For the Boys." Michelle Pfeiffer did win the drama Globe for "Baker Boys" and contended three other times for that award. She lost all three of those races to the eventual Oscar winner — in 1990 for "The Russia House" to Kathy Bates ("Misery"), in 1992 to Emma Thompson, and in 1993 for "The Age of Innocence" to Holly Hunter ("The Piano").

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Prior to the release of "Duplicity," award watchers had to wonder if Julia Roberts suffered from the Oscar Curse. You know, win an Oscar, then disappear — at least from significance. (We're talking about you, Helen Hunt and Cuba Gooding Jr.) The Academy Award champ for "Erin Brockovich" hasn't made many movies of importance in recent years. "Charlie Wilson's War" and "The Closer" showed great early awards promise but fizzled at the Oscars, making us wonder if Julia Roberts was burning out as superstar.

"Duplicity" looks like a comeback of sorts for Julia Roberts. It's a box-office hit getting mixed to terrific reviews, making us wonder next: Is this just a throwaway thriller that won't matter much on the kudos scene (like the "Bourne" flicks, which "Duplicity" scribe Tony Gilroy penned) or one of the rare gems of that genre that succeed at the Oscars and Golden Globes (like "Michael Clayton," which Gilroy also wrote and directed)?

The answer seems to be somewhere in between, which probably means it may register with Golden Globe voters but probably not academy members. At least not in the top categories. It may have Oscar hope in the tech slots considering its cinematographer is Robert Elswit (Oscar champ, "There Will Be Blood") and music score by James Newton Howard (no wins but nine nominations, including "Michael Clayton").

Entertainment Weekly gives the movie a "B" grade but adds this lament: "'Duplicity' doesn't have depth."

The L.A. Times describes "Duplicity" as "sleek, dizzying entertainment," calling this screen tale of competing spies (Roberts and Clive Owen) toying with each other romantically "essentially 'Michael Clayton Lite.' "

The New York Times says, " 'Duplicity' is superior entertainment, the most elegantly pleasurable movie of its kind to come around in a very long time. ... It's a sharp, sexy comedy masquerading as a twisty tale of intrigue, and vice versa."

The Golden Globes do love Julia Roberts. Assuming "Duplicity" is entered in the comedy/musical categories, she has a good shot at a nomination, and the movie and Clive Owen may nab top bids too considering those award slots are usually less crowded than the drama categories.

Roberts has been nominated on six occasions at the Globes and won 50% of the time. Her three victories: "Erin Brockovich" (best drama actress, 2000), "Pretty Woman" (best comedy/musical actress, 1990) and "Steel Magnolias" (best supporting actress, 1989).

Maybe it's wacky to tackle this so early — nominations don't come out till July — but I just invited our gutsy forum posters to start forecasting the next Emmy lineups. So let's add some Gold Derby perspective too.

Nominees for this TV award are a lot like TV reruns. They come back again and again, year after year, but now there's a radical revamp in the voting process that may trigger somewhat different results. Among new series, "The Mentalist" has been a hit but is perhaps too fantastic and eerie for the safe taste of Emmy voters, who usually aren't too welcoming to crime procedurals anyway. Voters often do embrace new HBO series, whatever they are, but a stake may be driven through the Emmy hopes of "True Blood" (which was nominated for best drama at the Golden Globes), considering how that superhit "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" was once so cruelly shunned by the TV academy.

"Kings" gets praise from some TV critics and mixed reviews from others. The L.A. Times calls the modern update of the Old Testament tale of David and Goliath "an interesting muddle of a show," but it's pretentious, so that's a plus with those notorious Emmy snobs. Read this L.A. Times article about a few more dramas premiering in midseason.

In recent years, nominees were selected using a two-stage voting process. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, 10 series and actors in each category (15 in the acting races in 2006) were chosen by academy members using a popular ballot. Then the semifinalists were whittled down to the final nominees after sample TV episodes were screened by judging panels that convened at the TV academy and the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

This year the TV academy just made the terrible decision to kill off the judging panels in an effort to save money. That means we're right back where we started prior to 2006, with lower-rated underdog contenders getting screwed. In other words, Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") might be back this year because he gained stature after winning best drama actor last September, but don't expect other critically hailed work on little-seen, brilliant cable shows to get a fair shot.

However, this new system does make predicting the Emmys much simpler, since pundits need only to focus on the most popular faves. In an effort to help the small fries a bit, the academy has increased the number of nominees in each race to six (sometimes seven), up from the usual five.

Let's start off dishing the battles in the top drama categories for series, actors and actresses. See more noodling and predix in The Envelope's Gold Derby forums.

* = Nominee last year

BEST DRAMA SERIES
(Favorites)
"Boston Legal" *
"Damages" *
"Dexter" *
"House" *
"Lost" *
"Mad Men" * (last year's winner)
"No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency"
"24"

Due to an accounting quirk, there were six nominees in this race last year and five of them will probably be back: "Damages," "Dexter," "House," "Lost" and "Mad Men." "Boston Legal" is vulnerable now that it's saying bye-bye. Past champ "24" (2006) wasn't eligible last year, so there's a good chance it'll nab a bid now that it's jumping back into the derby. "The Tudors" made the top 10 rundown last year and "Big Love" in 2006, so they could make the next top six or seven. "In Treatment" didn't make the 2008 semifinalist list, but it could be buoyed now by its two Emmy victories last September for best supporting actress (Dianne Wiest) and guest star (Glynn Turman). Maybe in an alternate universe the critically praised "Battlestar Galactica" might have a shot. What about "Dollhouse"?

A few of our forum posters think past champ "ER" has a shot since it's experiencing a comeback in its final season. Among new series, HBO's "No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency" hasn't premiered yet, but reviews from U.K. where it aired last week are strong. "The Mentalist" is a relative ratings success, "True Blood" was nominated at the Golden Globes, and "Kings" reigns among some TV critics.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" *
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" * (winner)
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" *
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" *
Hugh Laurie, "House" *
James Spader, "Boston Legal" *
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"

Past champ Kiefer Sutherland will be back because "24" has been much missed. Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy") made the top 10 runoff last year, so that tells us they have a strong base of popular support. Jonathan Rhys-Myers ("The Tudors") didn't make the runoff in 2008, but he may soon be forgiven for weighing 300 pounds less than the real King Henry VIII and being infinitely more pretty. Bill Paxton ("Big Love") made the run-offs a few years ago, but not since. This year's newbies who might break through include Ian McShane ("Kings"), who was nominated in this Emmy race for "Deadwood" in 2006,  Patrick Swayze ("The Beast") and Simon Baker ("The Mentalist").