"Dreamgirls" will get the most nominations Thursday morning when the Golden Globe bids will be unveiled at 8:35 a.m. ET, but I have a hunch that Mel Gibson will be the big media story.

Look for the Hollywood bad boy to rebound from his recent scandal by being nominated for best director. Or if he's not in that category, he'll nab a bid as best producer if "Apocalypto" pops up in the race for best-foreign language film. Yes, foreign-language film, not best drama picture. Explanation below.

Mel will probably surface in either category (or both) because Gibson is a Golden Globes darling. It was at the Globes of 1995 that he got launched Oscar-bound when he pulled off a shocking upset to win best director for "Braveheart." His Scottish battle epic lost the Globe for best drama picture to "Sense and Sensibility," but it ended up slaying the latter literary sudser when both met up later at the Oscars.

"Apocalypto" is not eligible to be nominated for best drama picture because that category is reserved only for English-language movies. The Globes define their foreign-film category by language, the Oscars by nation. Even though "Apocalypto" is an American movie produced in Hollywood, its spoken language is Mayan, so it must compete in the race for best foreign-language film. Same is true for Clint Eastwood's "Letters of Iwo Jima," which is in Japanese.

And speaking of foreigners and weirdness, watch out for "Borat." Certainly, it'll be nominated for best comedy/musical picture and Sacha Baron Cohen will be up for best actor, but its chances to win may be no laughing matter, even though nominated against superhot "Dreamgirls." Remember: it's about a foreign journalist who feels oddly out of place in America. Now remember who votes for the Globes: the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Here's my full list of bold, fearless Globe predix. Right now they may look totally brilliant, but by tomorrow they'll probably look very, very foolish. But I am a true kudos braveheart! Read on:

BEST DRAMA PICTURE
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pursuit of Happyness"
"The Queen"

Runners-Up:
"Blood Diamond"
"Bobby"
"Little Children"
"United 93"

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL PICTURE
"Borat"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"The Holiday"

Runners-Up:
"Kinky Boots"
"Miss Potter"
"Thank You for Smoking"

BEST DIRECTOR
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Clint Eastwood, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Mel Gibson, "Apocalypto"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

Runners-Up:
Pedro Almodovar, "Volver"
Robert De Niro, "The Good Shepherd"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Leo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Runners-Up:
Matt Damon, "The Good Shepherd"
Hugh Jackman, "The Fountain"
Toby Jones, "Infamous"
Edward Norton, "The Illusionist"
Ryan Phillipe, "Flags of Our Fathers"
Michael Sheen, "The Queen"
Ken Watanabe, "Letters from Iwo Jima"

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Sienna Miller, "Factory Girl"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Runners-Up:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby"
Elizabeth Reaser, "Sweet Land"
Naomi Watts, "The Painted Veil"

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
S.B. Cohen, "Borat"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Aaron Eckhart, "Thank You for Smoking"
Will Ferrell, "Stranger Than Fiction"
Jamie Foxx, "Dreamgirls"

Runners-Up:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "Kinky Boots"
Robin Williams, "Man of the Year"

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
Annette Bening, "Running with Scissors"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Beyonce Knowles, "Dreamgirls"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Renee Zellweger, "Miss Potter"

Runners-Up:
Juliette Binoche, "Breaking and Entering"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Cameron Diaz, "The Holiday"
Kate Winslet, "The Holiday"

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
"Apocalypto" (Mayan language, U.S.)
"Letters from Iwo Jima" (Japanese language, U.S.)
"Lives of Others" (Germany)
"Pan's Labyrinth" (Mexico)
"Volver" (Spain)

Runners-Up:
"Black Book" ("Zwartboek") (Netherlands)
"Children of Glory" (Hungary)
"Curse of the Golden Flower" (China)
"Days of Glory" ("El Benny") (Cuba)
"Golden Door" (Italy/France)
"Nomad" (Kazakhstan)
"Water" (Canada)

As we head into the early critics' awards over the next few days (L.A. critics vote on Sunday, New Yorkers on Monday), it looks like Helen Mirren ("The Queen") should reign easily over the lead actress domains. Or will she? Last year when it seemed apparent that Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") would pull off a clean sweep of all top kudos, he missed one of the early majors — didn't get New York Film Critics Circle. That went to Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain"). Other than that lil glitch, though, Hoffman won all of the others that have been around for several decades: Los Angeles Film Critics Association, National Society of Film Critics, Golden Globe and the Oscar.

Only a handful of actors have pulled off a complete sweep of those kudos: Nicolas Cage ("Leaving Las Vegas"), Sally Field ("Norma Rae"), Jane Fonda ("Klute"), Holly Hunter ("The Piano"), Martin Landau ("Ed Wood"), Jack Nicholson ("Terms of Endearment"), Sissy Spacek ("Coal Miner’s Daughter"), Mary Steenburgen ("Melvin and Howard"), Meryl Streep ("Sophie’s Choice"), Emma Thompson ("Howards End") and Dianne Wiest ("Bullets Over Broadway"). Cage, Field, Hunter, Nicholson, Spacek, Streep and Thompson also won the National Board of Review kudo.

Sometimes it looks like a sweep is forming, but the actor gets ditched at the last turn for new champ when stubborn Oscar voters get bored with the early faves — like what happened to Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom") when she marched through Hollywood kudos like General Sherman on Atlanta, taking N.Y. and L.A. honors (but not National Society), then the Globe next. She looked like the inevitable Oscar winner next — that is, up until the envelope was opened on the stage of the Kodak Theatre and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") was called to the podium.

Right now Mirren seems as unstoppable as Holly Hunter. She'll certainly win the New York critics' award on Monday. They like her so much that they preferred her in "Gosford Park" to Maggie Smith, the early fave to win that group's award for supporting actress. It seems likely that she'll take the prize from the Los Angeles critics voting this Sunday, too. But let's see. Nothing in Hollywood ever goes according to script.

(Photos: Miramax/ HFPA)

It's illegal to buy or sell an Oscar statuette bestowed after 1950, but not earlier. However, there's no restriction on the sale of nomination certificates. That's probably because the certificates can be easily forged, so collectors are foolish to purchase them willy-nilly. Only rarely do good ones come up for sale at reputable auction houses, but a few will be offered by Bonham's on Dec. 17.

John Ford's nom for producing 1952 best pic nominee "The Quiet Man" (lot 1039) is expected to fetch between $1,000 and $1,500. Of course, he won best director (one of his record four victories in that category) that year, but "The Greatest Show on Earth" pulled off a jaw-dropping upset in the top race. Prior to Oscar night, Variety predicted, "'High Noon' is a cinch to win the trophy as best picture of the year and gain added glory through the victories of Gary Cooper as best actor, the title tune as best song and the script by Carl Foreman as the best screenplay." Cooper and the song ("High Noon — Do Not Forsake Me, Oh My Darlin'") prevailed as forecast, but Variety was also wrong about the screenplay race where another upset occurred. Charles Schnee ("The Bad and the Beautiful") beat blacklisted scribe Foreman ("High Noon") and Frank S. Nugent ("The Quiet Man").

Bonham's is also selling Nugent's screenplay nom (lot 1040), which has the same estimate ($1,000 to $1,500). Both Ford's and Nugent's certificates are mounted on presentation board, unlike the John Ford nom in my personal collection. I own his certificate for directing "How Green Was My Valley" (1942), another one of his four wins. The other two were "The Grapes of Wrath" (1940) and "The Informer" (1935). It was sometime in between 1942 and 1952 that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences started mounting the parchments for nominees.

Also up for auction:

Screen Writers Guild award presented to Frank S. Nugent for "Mr. Roberts" (best written comedy, 1955). Lot 1041. Estimate: $300-$500.

Emmy Award statuette presented to Raymond Katz, producer of "The Miracle Worker" (best drama or comedy special of 1979 — the equivalent to best TV movie today). The NBC telefilm cast Patty Duke as Anne Sullivan 17 years after she won an Oscar for portraying Helen Keller in the feature film. Keller was played by Melissa Gilbert in the TV remake. Lot 1096. Estimate: $3,000 - $5,000.

Nine award items bestowed to producer Raymond Katz, including his Golden Globe nominations for producing "The Miracle Worker" (it lost to director Delbert Mann's "All Quiet on the Western Front" starring Richard Thomas and Ernest Borgnine) and 1980 telefilm "The Diary of Anne Frank" (directed by Boris Sagal, starring Melissa Gilbert and Maximilian Schell — it lost to director Paul Newman's "The Shadow Box" starring Joanne Woodward and Christopher Plummer). Lot 1097. Estimate: $200 - $300.

To learn more about the auction, go to Bonhams.com. To see items in this sale, click on the link that reads "Full Sales Schedule" along the left column of the home page, then scroll through the pages till you reach the Dec. 17 auction for "Entertainment Memorabilia Including Animation Art." Or use the drop-down calendar menus to input Dec. 17 on the first sked page.

By the way, if you intend to bid on any of these items, don't worry: I won't be bidding against you. i own plenty of Oscar nom certificates, including two of Katharine Hepburn's, plus Emmy, Golden Globe, Grammy and Oscar statuettes. If you'd like to read more about my personal collection — CLICK HERE!

(Photos: Bonham's Auction House)

(NOTE ADDED ON 11/21 — While much of the info in this report below turns out to be accurate, two key details are no longer true: "Volver" will not compete in the comedy lineup and Cate Blanchett will be eligible in supporting, not lead, for "Notes on a Scandal." At least one of these changes was made as a result of a studio appeal, but I don't know what's behind my erroneous report that "Volver" would be deemed a comedy. Perhaps my source was misinformed, but, strangely, he got all other info correct prior to at least one appeals flip-flop. Maybe two. Here's the original report —)

If a tip-off I just received from a usually trusty source turns out to be true, the qualification committee of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is really shaking up the Golden Globes derby.

Rumor has it that the panel has pooh-poohed Fox Searchlight's plea to put Cate Blanchett into the supporting actress race for "Notes on a Scandal." Instead, she'll compete for best lead drama actress opposite costar Judi Dench — and herself, too, as star of "The Good German."

The panel has also nixed the studio's recommendation to put "Little Miss Sunshine" star Abigail Breslin in supporting. Instead, she'll be in the lead race for comedy/musical actresses where she'll compete against — hold your horses, Derbyites; this news is a doozy — Penelope Cruz. Apparently, the panel believes that "Volver" is a comedy (even though that corpse in a freezer is no laughing matter), but don't expect to it to be nommed for best comedy/musical picture. Being in Spanish, it's not qualified for that race, just the separate category for best foreign-language film.

In the race for best lead comedy/musical actress, Breslin and Cruz will compete against Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Annette Bening ("Running with Scissors"), Renee Zellweger ("Miss Potter"), Catherine O'Hara ("For Your Consideration" — unless the HFPA put her in supporting, which I haven't heard any tattle about), Kirsten Dunst ("Marie Antoinette") and Dakota Fanning ("Charlotte's Web").

Plus Beyonce Knowles, but not "Dreamgirls" costar Jennifer Hudson. This is great news for Hudson fans who are cheering her on for the supporting Oscar, which she'll now probably win after nabbing the supporting Globe first. Had HFPA hiked Hudson to the lead race, it could've caused huge kudos chaos.

HPFA will not release final word about which categories films have been placed in until close to the announcement of nominees on Dec. 14. Nonetheless, I have formally asked HFPA to comment on this news we've heard and I expect a response on Monday.

Photos: Fox Searchlight/ Sony Pictures Classics/ DreamWorks-Paramount

I warned everybody more than a month ago that "Borat" could become such a monster hit that Sacha Baron Cohen could crush Peter O'Toole at the Golden Globes, but most of you scoffed. (See original blog item — CLICK HERE!) At that point, on Oct. 3, O'Toole's award campaigners pooh-poohed my warning, too, still planning to enter him in the comedy-musical race.

"People should stop listening to every tiny thing that Tom says and running with it," harrumphed "Slayton" in the "Comments" section, dismissing the hubbub my article caused. "If he wrote down Jessica Simpson in 'Employee of the Month,' you guys would probably listen. Grow brains of your own, use your mind and instincts and stop behaving like sheep."

Today (Friday) was the deadline for Globe entries and, wisely, O'Toole's campaigners had a change of heart and submitted him for the drama category. Of course, that doesn't mean he'll stay there. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association's eligibility committee might disagree, as it sometimes does, and move him back to comedy, but it usually defers to the preference of the contender. Soon, once the eligibility committee makes its rulings, we will break the story first here at Gold Derby, as we have for the past several years.

Photos: No laughing matter — O'Toole is now leery of Cohen, whose "Borat" earned an astounding $31,607 per screen last weekend when it bowed at 837 theaters, reaping $26 million. This weekend it nearly triples its rollout to 2,565 screens and is expected to earn an additional $24 million.
(Miramax/ 20th Century Fox)

At this early point in the derby, the dash for best picture has already narrowed considerably to a pack of 10 lead ponies.

Out front: "Babel," "Bobby," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls" "Flags of Our Fathers," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Pursuit of Happyness," "The Queen," "United 93" and "Volver."

Others in the running, but yards behind (more on that later): "Blood Diamond," "Borat," "The Painted Veil," "The Good German," "The Good Shepherd," "Last King of Scotland," "Little Children" and "World Trade Center."

My biggest track bet stays on "Dreamgirls" for now because it's a Broadway-proven, heart-squeezing, feet-tapping dramatization of a real showbiz story that was important to most academy voters during their youth, however much it winks its denial that it's not really about the Supremes.

Best picture winners usually must have a strong corresponding contender for best director — that's Bill Condon, who is emerging, finally, center stage among Hollywood helmers deserving a bow.

It helps that his arrival is relatively new (although I think he was cheated out of due recognition for "Kinsey") because voters like to crown big talent on the rise (Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings," Sam Mendes, "American Beauty") when they're not trying to make up for past snubbings of veterans (Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind," Steven Spielberg, "Schindler's List").

It also has what most best picture winners have: a cast of A-Listers (Beyonce, Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson).

In addition, it'll certainly nab gads of noms across many categories — that's key because the movie with the most nominations usually wins.

Beware: The best-pic victory of another musical, "Chicago" (which Condon adapted from the stage as screenwriter, but didn't direct), may be a fluke.

Other Broadway hits recently flopped when transferred to the Hollywood screen ("The Producers," "Phantom of the Opera") and no film with a black cast has yet won over the vastly white academy electorate.

Furthermore, it will need to prove itself at the box office, which is chancy. Musicals seem so old-fashioned today and so does its story line, although, happily, its telling is updated with hip new stars.

Even if it does well domestically, a black musical faces tough odds at theaters overseas, which could derail it at the Golden Globes where it's up against steep competish in that musical/comedy race opposite "Little Miss Sunshine", "Stranger Than Fiction" and "Borat."

In fact, two members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have told me — with sour, disapproving faces — that they don't think it'll sell overseas, period, which may affect how those foreign journalists vote.

Last, one of its strongest plusses and minuses is that it's about showbiz. Sometimes that helps ("Shakespeare in Love"), but usually, and quite strangely, that topic is a curse at showbiz's top awards — from the defeats of best-pic nominees "Sunset Boulevard" to "Nashville," "All That Jazz," "Coal Miner's Daughter," "The Aviator" and "The Turning Point" (Oscar's biggest loser, tied with "The Color Purple") and many others.

That means we must take rivals seriously like "The Queen," which not only has a hotshot overdue director (Stephen Frears), but features the best actress frontrunner (Helen Mirren) in a real-life role.

Often voters like to pair their best-pic choice with a lead-acting winner ("Million Dollar Baby," "Gladiator," "American Beauty," "Shakespeare in Love," "Rain Man"). Oh, yeah, and it's British (too many examples to cite!). Its reigning magnificently at the box office right now, although in shrewdly restricted release (only 152 theaters).

"Babel" has a hot helmer (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) and the A-List cast in a story relevant to today's headlines (hysteria over terrorism).

"Volver" has the strong director advantage, too (Pedro Almodovar) and the possible best actress winner (Penelope Cruz has The Babe Factor in a race crowded with older gals), although being in Spanish probably dooms its chance to win.

"The Departed" has surprising b.o., A-List celebs galore and the woefully overdue-director element (Martin Scorsese), but it's an actioner without an important message.

If "Flags of Our Fathers" gets into the top five, it will be given a major push soon after noms come out by the release of its Japanese mirror, "Letters from Iwo Jima," but Clint is so been-there-done-that right now and "Flags" is drooping commercially.

"Little Miss Sunshine" may seem too lightweight.

"United 93" came out too early and doesn't have a shot in the acting races, which is often key, but it does have behind it one of the most aggressive Oscar campaigners in the biz, a graduate with honors from The Harvey School.

Speaking of Harvey Weinstein, "Bobby" not only has major stars in a story of historic importance, but, yeowsa, it has that voracious Oscar conqueror, hungry for a comeback, mapping its academy onslaught.

Drawbacks: Its characters are mostly fictitious, Hollywood is a bit skeptical of its heartthrob director/writer (Emilio Estevez) and film critics aren't cheering it on. However, some audiences sure seem to be.

Pete Hammond reports at HollywoodWiretap.com, "At the AFI Film Fest's "Bobby" opening, applause was so enthusiastic it was hard to hear the rousing, just-recorded, end-credits song co-written by Bryan Adams and duetted by Aretha Franklin and Mary J. Blige."

Advance buzz over "The Pursuit of Happyness" grows louder every day and it features a guaranteed best-actor nominee who could win (Will Smith), but it may be too sappy and its director is an unknown neophyte.

But sappy is good at the Oscars, as we know. Movies that move voters the most emotionally usually win ("Million Dollar Baby"). So far that looks like "The Pursuit of Happyness," even "Bobby" to some extent and certainly "Dreamgirls."

If the contest comes down to "Dreamgirls" and "Pursuit of Happyness", it would be a vindication for the academy, which, prior to the recent same-year wins by Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), had been accused of being stingy to African-American films.

For now "Dreamgirls" has the most over-all advantages at this point, but it's still unseen and, frankly, if it's true that Bill Condon has played down the Effie/Florence Ballard role (Jennifer Hudson) as rumor has it, that could be catastrophic.

Even though the "Dreamgirls" spotlight is mostly on Deena Jones/Diana Ross (Beyonce) in both stage and screen versions, Effie stole the Broadway show so much so that its performer (Jennifer Holliday) stole the Tony Award for best actress away from the show's lead star (Sheryl Lee Ralph).

If Deena eclipses Effie too much in the movie, "Dreamgirls" loses its soul.

Of the movies in that second tier, "Blood Diamond" has doubters because director Ed Zwick failed to deliver on "The Last Samurai" and because it looks so commercial and because of rumors that Leo DiCaprio departs too often from his South African accent into South Bronx and Confederate South.

(If true, Warner Bros. may need to boost Leo up pronto to the lead race from supporting for "The Departed.")

"The Good Shepherd" suffers from skepticism about Robert DeNiro as a director and the fact that it's not a heart-tugging tale, but early buzz about the script is aces and the topic is a politically urgent one.

"The Good German" looks good, but a bit too commercial/suspense-driven and, strangely, George Clooney is making everybody worry about what he means with his oft-heard remark, "This is Cate's movie!" (Cate Blanchett, of course. Is that a compliment? Or dismissal?)

Like "United 93," "World Trade Center" came out early, too, and there's no huge groundswell behind it at this point.

"Borat" may become a monster hit, but it's too silly.

"Last King of Scotland" and "Little Children" aren't exploding at the box office and it doesn't look likely that "The Painted Veil," however good it is, will either, being a slow-paced period piece.

So, for now, "Dreamgirls" it is.

Photos: Two African-American movies are stand-outs in the best picture race. "Dreamgirls" is the early frontrunner because it's loaded with heart, superstars, a popular emerging director and it's likely to reap wide support across many academy branches. And it was a proven hit on Broadway, where, alas, it lost the Tony Award for best musical to "Nine" in 1982.

Many early viewers of "The Pursuit of Happyness" say that its potential is far beyond just a best-actor bid for Will Smith, since it's a well-crafted weepie based upon a real-life person in the tradition of past champs like "A Beautiful Mind."
(DreamWorks/ Sony)

Harvey Weinstein has decided to request that "Miss Potter" be placed in the comedy/musical categories at the Golden Globes. That backs up early speculation about the biopic of "Peter Rabbit" novelist Beatrix Potter starring Rene Zellweger, who will probably be nommed for best actress by the foreign press. "Miss Potter" has not yet been shown outside studio circles, so its tone (whimsical and light? seriously literary?) was not known, although a comedic touch was suspected since it's directed by "Babe" helmer Chris Noonan. "The film has a sweet, light touch," a studio source tells The Envelope, "with lots of British humor."

Speaking of Harvey, he just released the trailer for his best-pic contender "Bobby." CLICK HERE to view.

Now back to kudos contenders of British accent.

The London Daily Mail promises that the upcoming BAFTA Awards will stage "the battle of the Dames with Judi Dench and Helen Mirren going head to head for the best actress crown. Judi will be nominated for her delicious exploration of a sad, creepy, obsessive woman in 'Notes on a Scandal.' 'Notes' is about a teacher played by Cate Blanchett, who has an affair with a 15-year-old pupil. The film is narrated by Judi's cunning Barbara Covett, who elaborately grooms Blanchett for her own ends. Judi nails it. You almost want to rush the screen and thump her, she's so odious. Ms. Blanchette and Bill Nighy (as Ms. Blanchett's husband) will also be up for best supporting BAFTAs.'

Photo: Weinstein Co.

By moving to Monday night, the Golden Globes gala may have gotten out of the way of football and "Desperate Housewives," but it still had to compete against the final two hours of the four-hour launch of the new season of "24."

According to preliminary Nielsen ratings, its viewership of 18.7 million is a hike of about 2 million over last year'. By contrast, "24" pooled an audience of 14.9 million. But the Globecast's numbers are down dramatically from two years ago when 26.8 million people tuned in. Part of the drop can be attributed to the shrinking viewership of NBC, but most of it is surely because this year far fewer filmgoers are rooting for "Brokeback Mountain" or "Walk the Line" compared to last year's "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King."

There goes the theory that the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. only gives awards to stars they know will show up. It was no surprise that Paul Newman didn't show tonight. The Salad Dressing Man never goes to award shows these days. He didn't even he attend the Oscars in 1986, the year he won for "The Color of Money." He had already lost seven times and said that pursuing the Oscar was like being rejected over and over by a beautiful woman. After a while, he said, you just give up and don't care anymore.

Sure, "Brokeback Mountain" looks like a shoo-in to win best drama picture at the Golden Globes, but George Clooney could easily win the directors' award. Globe voters often opt for celebrity helmers just like last year when Clint Eastwood won best director even though "The Aviator" soared off with the laurels for best drama picture and actor (Leonardo DiCaprio). The same thing launched Mel Gibson's "Braveheart" in 1995. Poor Ang Lee's "Sense and Sensibility" had won the Globe for best drama picture that year, but Gibson snagged the director's prize. His "Braveheart" troops ambushed the Oscars next. Of course, Clooney is already favored to win the supporting actor Globe for "Syriana," but that doesn't mean anything. Joan Plowright and Sigourney Weaver are among the stars who've scored double victories in the past.

Even if Clooney only wins the Globe for best supporting actor and fails to reap the director's trophy on Jan. 16, he could still win the Directors Guild of America award 12 days later and, as every Oscarologist knows, that changes everything. Dark storm clouds would suddenly gather over "Brokeback Mountain."

Usually the helmer who wins DGA claims the corresponding award on Oscar night and the movie that wins best director usually claims the best picture prize, too.

Clooney is a serious DGA front-runner for several reasons:

1. Actors almost always win. Even Ron Howard — once little Opie from "The Andy Griffith Show" — was hailed by guild members as best director for "Apollo 13" despite the fact that he wasn't even nominated at the 1995 Oscars. There are many thesps who've prevailed at both awards contests: Robert Redford ("Ordinary People," 1980), Warren Beatty, ("Reds," 1981), Kevin Costner ("Dances with Wolves," 1990) and Clint Eastwood ("Unforgiven," 1992; "Million Dollar Baby," 2004). The only Oscar-winning actor-turned-director who lost at DGA was Mel Gibson ("Braveheart," 1995), but that doesn't count because he lost to another actor — Ron Howard.

Oh my head hurts trying to figure out the race for best drama actor at the Globes. Sure, it looks, at first glance, like a lavender tossup: take your pick between gay roles played by, to use hipster's written slang, "str8" chaps Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain") and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote"). Let's get to that discussion in a moment. Meantime, the presence of Terrence Howard ("Hustle & Flow") makes me reach for Advil.

Because Howard has a real — albeit modest — chance of winning. There's nothing Globe voters love more than hailing the Hot New Star during his or her "moment." It's their job. Voters, after all, are foreign journos who are intensely searching for breaking news and trends to trumpet in their publications back in Oslo, Cairo and Buenos Aires. They like African Americans (Denzel Washington won best drama actor for "The Hurricane") and art-house actors. Let's recall, for example, that the star of the arty film "Shine," Geoffrey Rush, beat Ralph Fiennes for best drama actor of 1996 even though Fiennes appeared in best picture winner "The English Patient" and was considered a red-hot property after breaking out big time three years earlier in "Schindler's List." But there was so much new buzz surrounding Rush in 1996 that it seemed to be his moment, so he won. Thus the question now: What about Howard?

HFPA members have witnessed his ascendancy up close. Howard was not among the cast members sent by producers to chat with voters when "Crash" held its HFPA press conference early this year. "He wasn't yet Terrence Howard, if you know what I mean," notes an inside source.

Photo: Peter Travers of Rolling Stone magazine believes Heath Ledger is riding high in the best actor saddle at the Globes, but beware: There might be an ambush on awards night.
(Focus Features)

"It now has blood on its hands."

That's the outrageous claim being made against the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. by a British media source reporting the suicide of a suspended HFPA member. Thus we witness a shocking new low in a favorite media sport: Golden Globe bashing.

Big Buzz magazine writer Nick Douglas recently hung himself in a thrift shop in Belfast, Northern Ireland, allegedly because he was depressed over having been suspended from HFPA for rules infractions.

"They basically took a livelihood away from a guy who was out there trying to earn a living," Barry O'Kane, managing editor of the local Belfast entertainment publication, told the New York Times. "It led completely, directly to what ended up happening to Nick."

But that allegation doesn't add up. O'Kane says he had to drop Douglas' column after Douglas was ousted from HFPA and no longer had access to celebrities. However, Douglas had only been an HFPA member for three years and O'Kane had no problem publishing the column during the previous eight years.

Furthermore, Douglas' yearlong suspension was technically over in September. His access to celebs had been fully restored to what it was previously, but HFPA wouldn't pay for his trips to out-of-town junkets and film festivals. That proviso will be reversed in another few more months, though. The worst of his troubles had passed.

At the time of his death Douglas was receiving medical treatment for depression, which suggests that he may have had deeper problems than not getting a freebie flight to New York to chat with Heidi Klum. Suicide seems like a rather extreme response to having to stay back in the HFPA hometown of L.A. where he could gab with Charlize Theron or Heath Ledger.