Our forum posters remained enthusiastic about the second season of "In Treatment" throughout its seven-week run on HBO, which wrapped up this holiday weekend. Based on the hit Israeli series "BeTipul," "In Treatment" unfolds over the course of weekly therapy sessions. As Dr. Paul Weston, Gabriel Byrne counsels a different patient in four of the weekly installments while in the fifth he is undergoing therapy himself.

This season, the good doctor is treating another wide array of patients. Among those earning plaudits from our posters are current Tony nominee Hope Davis ("God of Carnage") as a successful attorney who blames Weston for her woes because she was once under his care. And two-time Emmy nominee John Mahoney ("Frasier"), who plays a CEO consumed by panic attacks, has earned his share of rave reviews as well.

But it is one-time Tony nominee Alison Pill ("The Lieutenant of Inishmore") as a student in denial about her cancer who has won over most of our posters. Last month Atypical said, "Alison Pill was incredible this week. She's on a different playing field than everyone else at this point. Just wow." More recently Buffy Mars thought, "Alison Pill should win the Emmy. I watch a lot of tv and I know there are many great supporting actress performances this year, but she's on a completely different level from everyone else." And for sirkevin, "It has been years since I've been so moved and intrigued by a character arc on television. Pill is creating one of the most complex characters of the season. What a star. She really deserves this."

However, as nicolefan notes, "I'm really rooting for Alison Pill this year. I mean, I'm a nervous wreck while watching her episodes, she's just so unbelievably real and heartbreaking. I doubt she'll get a nomination, but she truly deserves to win it this year. And as much as I like Diane Wiest and Hope Davis, I bet they get in over Alison Pill just on name recognition alone. I wouldn't mind them getting nominated, because they're both great, but only if Alison Pill can get nominated too."

Last year, Gabriel Byrne earned his first Emmy nod for this role but lost the lead actor in a drama series race to Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"). In January, he won a Golden Globe as a consolation prize.

Two-time Oscar champ Dianne Wiest ("Hannah and Her Sisters," "Bullets over Broadway") won her second Emmy Award for her work as the therapist's therapist Dr. Gina Toll. Wiest prevailed over perennial Emmy champ Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal" ) and repeat nominees Rachel Griffith ("Brothers and Sisters") and "Grey's Anatomy" co-stars Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson.

Maybe it's wacky to tackle this so early — nominations don't come out till July — but I just invited our gutsy forum posters to start forecasting the next Emmy lineups. So let's add some Gold Derby perspective too.

Nominees for this TV award are a lot like TV reruns. They come back again and again, year after year, but now there's a radical revamp in the voting process that may trigger somewhat different results. Among new series, "The Mentalist" has been a hit but is perhaps too fantastic and eerie for the safe taste of Emmy voters, who usually aren't too welcoming to crime procedurals anyway. Voters often do embrace new HBO series, whatever they are, but a stake may be driven through the Emmy hopes of "True Blood" (which was nominated for best drama at the Golden Globes), considering how that superhit "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" was once so cruelly shunned by the TV academy.

"Kings" gets praise from some TV critics and mixed reviews from others. The L.A. Times calls the modern update of the Old Testament tale of David and Goliath "an interesting muddle of a show," but it's pretentious, so that's a plus with those notorious Emmy snobs. Read this L.A. Times article about a few more dramas premiering in midseason.

In recent years, nominees were selected using a two-stage voting process. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, 10 series and actors in each category (15 in the acting races in 2006) were chosen by academy members using a popular ballot. Then the semifinalists were whittled down to the final nominees after sample TV episodes were screened by judging panels that convened at the TV academy and the Beverly Hilton Hotel.

This year the TV academy just made the terrible decision to kill off the judging panels in an effort to save money. That means we're right back where we started prior to 2006, with lower-rated underdog contenders getting screwed. In other words, Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") might be back this year because he gained stature after winning best drama actor last September, but don't expect other critically hailed work on little-seen, brilliant cable shows to get a fair shot.

However, this new system does make predicting the Emmys much simpler, since pundits need only to focus on the most popular faves. In an effort to help the small fries a bit, the academy has increased the number of nominees in each race to six (sometimes seven), up from the usual five.

Let's start off dishing the battles in the top drama categories for series, actors and actresses. See more noodling and predix in The Envelope's Gold Derby forums.

* = Nominee last year

BEST DRAMA SERIES
(Favorites)
"Boston Legal" *
"Damages" *
"Dexter" *
"House" *
"Lost" *
"Mad Men" * (last year's winner)
"No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency"
"24"

Due to an accounting quirk, there were six nominees in this race last year and five of them will probably be back: "Damages," "Dexter," "House," "Lost" and "Mad Men." "Boston Legal" is vulnerable now that it's saying bye-bye. Past champ "24" (2006) wasn't eligible last year, so there's a good chance it'll nab a bid now that it's jumping back into the derby. "The Tudors" made the top 10 rundown last year and "Big Love" in 2006, so they could make the next top six or seven. "In Treatment" didn't make the 2008 semifinalist list, but it could be buoyed now by its two Emmy victories last September for best supporting actress (Dianne Wiest) and guest star (Glynn Turman). Maybe in an alternate universe the critically praised "Battlestar Galactica" might have a shot. What about "Dollhouse"?

A few of our forum posters think past champ "ER" has a shot since it's experiencing a comeback in its final season. Among new series, HBO's "No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency" hasn't premiered yet, but reviews from U.K. where it aired last week are strong. "The Mentalist" is a relative ratings success, "True Blood" was nominated at the Golden Globes, and "Kings" reigns among some TV critics.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" *
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" * (winner)
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" *
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" *
Hugh Laurie, "House" *
James Spader, "Boston Legal" *
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"

Past champ Kiefer Sutherland will be back because "24" has been much missed. Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Patrick Dempsey ("Grey's Anatomy") made the top 10 runoff last year, so that tells us they have a strong base of popular support. Jonathan Rhys-Myers ("The Tudors") didn't make the runoff in 2008, but he may soon be forgiven for weighing 300 pounds less than the real King Henry VIII and being infinitely more pretty. Bill Paxton ("Big Love") made the run-offs a few years ago, but not since. This year's newbies who might break through include Ian McShane ("Kings"), who was nominated in this Emmy race for "Deadwood" in 2006,  Patrick Swayze ("The Beast") and Simon Baker ("The Mentalist").

Yes — yikes — this means I am shimmying out onto a thin, shaky predix limb, I know, but little Emmy birdies tell me that we pundits have made a big mistake underestimating Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") in the race for best drama actor.

Up until recently, I was with my Envelope comrades resting on usually sturdy oak for James Spader ("Boston Legal"). After all, Spader has never lost — he's gone three for three at Emmys past, including last year, and now he gives his most dynamic performance yet in the sample episode he submitted to Emmy judges. "The Court Supreme" is Spader's performance supreme, granted — he's never been better or given a longer or more dramatic courtroom speech than he does chewing out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. Read more about his Emmy chances and history, CLICK HERE.

But I have a hunch that Emmy voters are just as sick of seeing him win as we pundits are, especially after his ungrateful, snarky acceptance speech last year when he claimed his latest statuette with a shrug, saying, "I still have no idea who votes for these things. Or how you even secure a ballot. Uh . . . but thank you."

The battle over best drama actor is a truly dramatic smackdown involving formidable heavyweights. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House, M.D.") have real shots to win, and maybe even Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") too. Perhaps I'm making a big mistake pooh-poohing the prospects of Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). After all, he's an esteemed star of artsy indie films, which appeals to those notorious snobs in the TV academy, and he delivers a pretentious-as-heck talkathon with Dianne Wiest in his episode submission, but it doesn't contain the emotional fireworks we spy elsewhere in this race.

Frame for frame, moment for moment, Cranston delivers the most intense, theatrical performance of all contenders as a science teacher who wigs out and becomes a crystal meth chef upon hearing the news that he's dying of cancer. The episode has a huge "ick" factor. Watching this good father, husband and teacher team up with drug dealers who will sell their poison to innocents is cringe-inducing, especially since he does it sweating, scowling and romping around in his underpants in the desert. But he does it to whip up a quick fortune to leave his family before he croaks, so his motive isn't selfish.

Just look at the YouTube video below. It's the first scene of the pilot episode, which is what he submitted to Emmy judges. He's talking into a video camera, telling his family how much he loves them and why he's doing such terrible things. If that doesn't wow Emmy voters, what will?

Cranston's episode has all three elements that are key to impressing judges: It has wide emotional range, impact (not just one big money scene, but a treasure-packed hour of them) and — most important of all — empathy. That's crucial. Portraying a powerfully empathetic character is how Particia Arquette ("Medium") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") pulled off recent upsets in the lead-actress races. It's impossible not to feel the terror, dread, sadness and doom Cranston's character experiences as he chooses to step into hell before life's end. Read the full episode description HERE.

But Cranston also has a few other pluses. Even though his character allies himself with a thug, he knocks off worse devils in the pilot to "Breaking Bad." The final fight scene is a heart-stopping shockeroo, and it redeems him a bit too. But the other secret ingredient this episode contains is its theme of substance abuse — one that often triggers big award wins in rehab-happy Hollywood. Candice Bergen won many of her five Emmys for episodes dealing with Murphy Brown's alcoholism. Ditto for Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"), even Kirstie Alley ("Cheers"). Just last year Helen Mirren claimed another Emmy as best actress in a TV film as a police detective battling the bottle.

Lastly, Cranston, personally speaking, is endearing and beloved across Hollywood. It's easy to see why in this video chat I had with him and his "Breaking Bad" costar Anna Gunn last weekend on the red carpet outside the Creative Arts Emmys. Watch his reaction when I tell him that he's got a real chance to win. Over the past few weeks I've been hearing more and more positive buzz for his Emmy hopes from inside industry sources, so I'm starting to take his chances seriously. And so should you. With six nominees in this category, a contender, theoretically, may need only 17% of the vote to win.

What I say in this video to Gunn and Cranston is hard to hear because I'm holding the camera several feet away from them while they hold the mike close to themselves. At first I ask them for their reaction to the amazing breakthrough that basic-cable TV shows by AMC ("Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") have had at the Emmys this year. Later in the video I ask Bryan to tell us what his reaction was when he heard that he was nominated for best lead drama actor. Then I inform him that some serious Emmy gurus (like Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly) are picking him to win. Then I ask him if he'll attend this Sunday's ceremony with a prepared acceptance speech — just in case he does win.

Hey, I can't let Ausiello be the only guru to claim this longshot among the pundits in our Emmy pool, can I? (See all predix HERE.) So now I'm (nervously) stepping off of the James Spader bandwagon to pick Cranston for the win too. Below are my revised racetrack odds for this category. To see the full list of racetrack odds, CLICK HERE

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1

(AMC, L.A. Times)

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

Remember, we don't want to know who you want to win, but who you predict will prevail! Show us what a brilliant kudos forecaster you are! That's a dare!

Drama - actress

Ray Richmond of the Hollywood Reporter and I don't really hate each other, though I'm sure it might look like that when we get into our frequent slugfests over award predix. In fact, I absolutely love beating up on Ray more than any other journalist — really, and that's saying something. Here we go at it over what will be nominated for Emmys this Thursday morning and, to prove what a noble gent I am, I let Ray have the first word (so that I — ha, ha, ha — could have the last . . . well, at least until nominations come out).

BEST COMEDY SERIES
RAY: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "Family Guy," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock"
TOM: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "The Office," "Pushing Daisies," "30 Rock," "Two and a Half Men"

RAY: Yes, "Family Guy" makes the cut -- not necessarily because it deserves to, but because the TV Academy loses its marbles every once in a while. And this is that once. The only other question is whether "Pushing Daisies" gets pushed out by its ABC sister "Ugly Betty," but Betty has so dropped from the radar I'm thinking not. "Weeds"? Only if Woody Harrelson takes over the voting process from those bean counters in suits.

TOM: Obviously, Ray, you were partying with Woody when you made these Emmy predix if you really think that "Family Guy" will get in over "2.5 Men." The latter's been nominated every year that the TV academy has had these panels — that is, the last two years. The last (and ONLY) time a cartoon sneaked into this comedy lineup was "The Flintstones" MORE THAN 45 YEARS AGO — back before computers, cable TV and double Pinkberry scoops — when the Emmy counters were using real beans.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
RAY & TOM: "Boston Legal," "Damages," "Grey's Anatomy," "House," "Mad Men"

RAY: "Mad Men" and "Damages" are locks. "House" probably is too. I'm thinking "Grey's" gets in over "Lost." "Boston Legal" is in because it is written that David Kelley shall always be in the running in some fashion. "The Wire"? No matter how deserving, it's probably a miracle it made it even this far.

TOM: Uh-oh. Ray and I are in total agreement here. Why does that terrify me so?

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
RAY: Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")
TOM: Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), James Spader ("Boston Legal")

RAY: Spader's a lock because he talks so slowly and intensely, it seems, but he ain't winning this time. Hamm's the one to beat seemingly. And the AMC momentum with "Mad Men" could — I pray — carry Cranston in. He is SO deserving. But he could get beaten out by Byrne, just because he's Gabriel Byrne. Hall deserves a nom for sure, and Laurie has deserved to win for three years running. He still does. But he won't. But if he doesn't get nominated, I say firebomb the ATAS headquarters and let's just start over.

TOM: Yeah, Hamm, Laurie and Spader are in. Ray (amazingly) is right about those, but he's wrong about Spader not winning again. Come on, Spader's NEVER LOST. He's gone three for three in this race and the reason he won repeatedly in the past was because writer/producer David E. Kelley kept penning him those grandstanding speeches he'd spew to juries at the end of each episode of "Boston Legal" that he submitted to Emmy judges. This year Spader submits his BIGGEST speech doozy ever — in which he chews out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. How can Hollywood lefties NOT vote THAT? READ MORE

As for Ray's deluded hope that Cranston will get in — well, I'd cheer that if it happened, but it won't. Cranston would have to rank in the top seven or so places in the popular vote and I think that's unlikely for a new, lowly rated, cable show about a guy toying with crystal meth and terminal cancer. Denis Leary's been nommed consistently for the past three years, surviving all wacky, radical changes in the voting process. I see no reason why he suddenly gets bumped now.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
RAY & TOM: Glenn Close ("Damages"), Minnie Driver ("The Riches"), Sally Field ("Brothers & Sisters"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

RAY: This is probably the easiest major category to handicap. It's difficult for me to see it being anyone other than Close, Driver, Field, Hunter and Sedgwick, though Arquette or Moss could pull an upset if enough of their relatives are permitted to vote (and Moss surely would deserve it). Field could also be victimized by backlash to last year's dead-on but controversial acceptance speech ("You gagged me, you really gagged me!"). Close will win, however. End of story.

TOM: Ray and I are in agreement again. Shoot me.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
RAY: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")
TOM: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"), Steve Carell ("The Office"), David Duchovny ("Californication"), Lee Pace ("Pushing Daisies"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

RAY: Baldwin was jobbed last year in favor of "Extras' Ricky Gervais, and everyone knows it. Probably won't happen again. He and Carell are slam dunks, as is Shalhoub. David only seems to generate greater affection for his misanthropic "Curn" role as the years pile up, so he's likely in too along with the charming Pace (who could be edged out by Emmy darling Garrett, but I don't think so).

TOM: Ray may have blundered upon a smart set of predix here and he may even out-score me because — what the heck — I feel like throwing some Emmy dice. Betting against Shalhoub to return may be foolish. He's been nommed for the last five years, winning three times (2003, 2005, 2006), but his episode entry this year is a bit weak ("Mr. Monk and the Naked Man"), which will bring down his typical judges' score. And I think his popular-vote score will be down, too, because he's old news. Sure, Duchovny's old Emmy news too — he used to be nommed routinely for "The X-Files," so we know that voters love him — and now his comeback in new series "Californication" is sexy.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

Somehow I've managed to coax six suckers brilliant kudos seers to join me in predicting the Emmy nominations that will be announced this Thursday morning: Michael Ausiello (EW.com), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus — our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. To see how we fared predicting the Emmy top 10 lists, CLICK HERE! Below: how we size up the races for best drama and comedy series. To see our predix for best lead actor and actress, CLICK HERE!

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR PREDIX FOR BEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN DRAMA AND COMEDY SERIES!

Lots of Oscar-friendly flicks are being added to the roster at the Toronto Film Festival, including "Happy-Go-Lucky," "Waltz With Bashir, " "The Duchess" — READ MORE

"Pixar's latest gift to movie lovers should be a candidate for the most prestigious award, best picture, when Oscar time rolls around," insists Wall Street Journal critic Joe Morgenstern of "Wall-E" (CLICK HERE). But Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.com fights to "keep the Berlin Wall up" between animated and live-action fare. Why? "Biological actuality is too precious and beautiful to sully its textures with hard-drive simulations and vice versa. Sometimes segregation is a good thing." (Ah, if only Jesse Helms had lived long enough to hear Jeff!)

Get ready for Emmy noms by ordering DVDs of these shows so you may view the same sample episodes being judged by voters. Discs of these series are available — click on links: "Mad Men," "Damages," "In Treatment," "Dexter," "Weeds," "Pushing Daisies," "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

I didn't see this week's installment of "At the Movies," but Sasha Stone did and reports at AwardsDaily.com that Richard Roeper claims it'll be an "upset" if Heath Ledger isn't nominated for an Oscar for "The Dark Knight." READ MORE.

There were lots of glitches this year in the video player embedded at the TV academy's website so Emmy voters could view sample episodes of award contenders, reports Broadcasting & Cable. It launched too late in Emmy season and its "playback was a bit jittery," concedes academy awards chief John Leverence. READ MORE

Looks like our Emmy prophets agree on four of the five slots for supporting actress in a drama series: Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal"), Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers and Sisters"), Rose Byrne ("Damages") and Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy"). But one goes for Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy") in fifth slot, the other for Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment").

Below: Our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria.

Rob and Boomer mirror the actual voting process when making their predix. First, they calculate the order of the top 11 semifinalists as determined by the popular vote by the TV academy's actors' branch. Then they predict how the panel judges scored the sample episode entries. They combine these results on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine the final ranking of the nominees. Lowest numbers rank highest.

Here's how Rob thinks these rivals fared in the popular vote: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Candice Bergen. 3) Chandra Wilson. 4) Sandra Oh. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 6) Dianne Wiest. 7) Christine Hendricks. 8) Jill Clayburgh. 9) S. Epatha Merkerson. 10) Sharon Gless. 11) Jane Alexander.

Here's how Boomer thinks these rivals fared in the popular vote: 1) Candice Bergen. 2) Chandra Wilson. 3) Rose Byrne. 4) Sandra Oh. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 6) Christina Hendricks. 7) Dianne Wiest. 8) Jill Clayburgh 9) S. Epatha Merkerson. 10) Jane Alexander. 11) Sharon Gless.

My opinion: Rob and Boomer rank Rose Byrne too high. Come on, she's a little-known actress in a TV show that aired last summer, for cryin' out loud. She's gonna pull higher than Sandra Oh and, according to Rob, Emmy queen Candy Bergen? Memo to Rob: Put down the pint of frothy ale, mate.

Here's how Rob thinks voters ranked episode samples after viewing: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Chandra Wilson. 3) Candice Bergen. 4) Christina Hendricks. 5) Rachel Griffiths. 5) Sandra Oh. 6) Sharon Gless. 7) Dianne Wiest. 8) Jill Clayburgh. 9) Jane Alexander. 10) S. Epatha Merkerson.

Here's how Boomer thinks voters ranked episode samples after viewing: 1) Rose Byrne. 2) Rachel Griffiths. 3) Dianne Wiest. 4) Chandra Wilson. 5) Jane Alexander. 6) Jill Clayburgh. 7) Candice Bergen. 8) Sandra Oh. 9) Christina Hendricks. 10) Sharon Gless. 11) S. Epatha Merkerson.

My opinion: Yes, Byrne will rank high once voters see her "Damages" eppy. I think Boomer got a bit carried away with Griffiths and Rob with Hendricks.

Below: Predix that include the titles of sample episodes viewed by judges. I think Boomer's off in one forecast: He doesn't have Sandra Oh in his top five. Oh, Wilson and Griffiths were nominated last year and probably will be back. Last year Candy Bergen took her name out of competition, but when she does choose to compete, the five-time champ (and daughter of the academy's founding president) always makes it in. That means, if my analysis is correct, we have only one slot open, which must go to the star-blazing newcomer of the TV year — Rose Byrne, who, arguably, could've competed in the lead race but was smart enough not to take on Glenn Close off screen too. No doubt their on-screen clashes are weary enough.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1) Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Because I Know Patty") -- 2 points
2) Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") -- 5 points
2) Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") -- 5 points
4) Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") -- 10 points
4) Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming") -- 10 points
6) Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" ("Babylon") -- 11 points
7) Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul & Gina: Week ??") -- 14 points
8) Jill Clayburgh, "Dirty Sexy Money" ("The Watch") -- 17 points
8) Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice" ("Identity") -- 17 points
10) S. Epatha Merkerson, "Law & Order" ("Bottomless") -- 20 points
11) Jane Alexander, "Tell Me You Love Me" ("Episode 10") -- 21 points

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Top 5 = nominees)
1) Rose Byrne, "Damages" ("Because I Know Patty") -- 4 points
2) Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Lay Your Hands on Me") -- 6 points
3) Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters" ("Domestic Issues") -- 7 points
4) Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" ("The Mighty Rogues") -- 8 points
5) Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" ("Paul & Gina: Week ??") -- 10 points
6) Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" ("The Becoming") -- 12 points
7) Jill Clayburgh, "Dirty Sexy Money" ("The Watch") -- 14 points
8) Jane Alexander, "Tell Me You Love Me" ("Episode 10") -- 15 points
8) Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" ("Babylon") -- 15 points
10) S. Epatha Merkerson, "Law & Order" ("Bottomless") -- 20 points
11) Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice" ("Identity") -- 21 points

Rob's commentary: I'm confident about my top four predix. Oh is the best bet for the fifth spot, but Hendricks will probably score a strong panel vote (great performance) and Weist score a strong popular vote (name recognition), thus putting those two in contention. Bergen is a sure thing, and I think that, given the obvious love for "Damages," Byrne is safe as well.

(Photos: ABC, FX)

Can poor Hugh Laurie ("House") finally win the Emmy, please? He reaped two Golden Globes (2006, 2007), but both times he was nommed for TV's top prize, he got skunked by James Spader ("Boston Legal"). Well, doesn't everybody? Spader's never lost — he's three for three in this category.

Part of the reason that Spader never loses is because producer/writer David E. Kelley usually gives him one of those great, grandstanding courtroom speeches near the end of the episode. They're hard to beat. This year James Spader may have his greatest ever. He stands before the U.S. Supreme Court justices, roaring, "Who are you people? You've transformed this court from being a governmental branch devoted to civil rights and liberties into protector of discrimination, guardian of government, a slave to monied interests and big business and today, hallelujah, you seek to slay a mentally disabled man!" Noticing that Justice Clarence Thomas isn't paying attention, Spader shouts, "Put down that magazine!"

Now how can Hollywood lefties not vote for that, eh?

Well, it looks like Hugh Laurie might tempt voters with what some "House" fanatics say is his greatest perf yet. In the episode he gave to Emmy judges, "House's Head," he battles temporary amnesia while struggling to recall which fellow passenger he diagnosed with a life-threatening medical problem just prior to a bus crash. The season finale is poignant, hilarious, mysterious, packed with drama and full of flashy acting scenes like when House goes all Rambo.

James Spader's and Hugh Laurie's nearest rival may be Jon Hamm. Everybody's gone crazy over "Mad Men" this year and Emmy voters adore hailing new stars. Hamm submitted a perfect episode to voters too. In "The Wheel," hotsy-totsy advertising exec Don Draper (Hamm) suddenly redeems himself for being a sly alley cat when we see him give a slide show to Kodak. The new, round slide projector is tentatively called "The Wheel, " but he wants the manufacturer to give it a new name that "takes us to a place where we ache to go," he says, tearing up, voice cracking as he shows off old, happy photos of him and his wife. "It's not called 'the wheel.' It's called 'the carousel.' It lets us travel the way a child travels, around and around and back home again — to a place where we know we are loved."

Yikes! There are lots of great perfs in this category this year. You and I have only looked at three so far and haven't even considered the other seven yet. What to think? I asked our forum moderators and special Emmy seers Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net — read Hollywood Reporter's profile of Rob HERE).

While making their forecasts, Rob and Boomer track the voting process exactly. First, they predict the Top 10 semifinalists after members of the TV academy's actors' branch were polled in a popular vote. Then they predict how judges will rank the sample episode entries. Then they combine both scores on a 50-50 basis, just like the accountants do, to determine nominees.

For example, Rob gave Hugh a No. 1 on the popular vote and No. 2 on the list of judges' scores. Combining the numbers, total score is three. Remember: Lowest score equals best score.

How Rob ranks the popular vote outcome — 1.) Hugh Laurie 2.) Jon Hamm 3.) James Spader 4.) Denis Leary 5.) Patrick Dempsey 6.) Michael C. Hall 7.) Gabriel Byrne 8.) Bryan Cranston 9.) Eddie Izzard 10.) Kyle Chandler

Here's how Boomer thinks the pop vote went down — 1.) Hugh Laurie 2.) Jon Hamm 3.) Michael C. Hall 4.) James Spader 5.) Patrick Dempsey 6.) Gabriel Byrne 7.) Kyle Chandler 8.) Denis Leary 9.) Bryan Cranston 10.) Eddie Izzard

How Rob thinks the judges ranked episode entries — 1.) James Spader 2.) Hugh Laurie 3.) Bryan Cranston 4.) Michael C. Hall 5.) Gabriel Byrne 6.) Jon Hamm 7.) Kyle Chandler 8.) Eddie Izzard 9.) Denis Leary 10.) Dempsey

Here's how Boomer ranks the judges' views of the episodes — 1.) James Spader 2.) Hugh Laurie 3.) Jon Hamm 4.) Gabriel Byrne 5.) Bryan Cranston 6.) Michael C. Hall 7.) Kyle Chandler 8.) Denis Leary 9.) Eddie Izzard 10.) Patrick Dempsey

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
(Top five = nominees)
1.) Hugh Laurie, "House" ("House's Head") — 3 points
2.) James Spader, "Boston Legal" ("The Court Supreme") — 3 points
2.) Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Wheel") — 8 points
4.) Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("There's Something About Harry") — 10 points
5.) Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Pilot") — 11 points
6.) Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 4") — 12 points
7.) Denis Leary, "Rescue Me" ("Babyface") — 13 points
8.) Patrick Dempsey, "Grey's Anatomy" ("Freedom") — 15 points
9.) Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights" ("Last Day of Summer") — 17 points
9.) Eddie Izzard, "The Riches" ("Last Temptation of Wayne") — 17 points

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