The Emmy slugfest over best drama actor is a true heavyweight bout. There are three key players — Hugh Laurie ("House M.D."), Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") and Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment") — according to our pundits Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net).

Also check out Rob's and Boomer's (often clashing) predix in these categories: best comedy series, lead comedy actor, lead comedy actress, supporting comedy actor, supporting comedy actress, guest comedy actor, guest comedy actress, comedy writing, comedy directing, best lead actor in movie/mini and lead actress in a movie/mini. Read more in our forums.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
2.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
3.  Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("Under My Skin")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")
6.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The drama categories are usually quite difficult to predict, generally because there are usually at least 10 to 15 amazing performances that are in the running for these coveted spots, that, depending on the episode submission, could all be contenders for an Emmy win. This is never more the case than what is typically one of the hottest categories year in year out -- drama lead actor. This year is no exception.

Michael C. Hall plays Dexter as a serial killer with a heart of gold, protecting his girlfriend’s children from a sex offender does make his character more likeable and perhaps less of the, let’s face it, monster that he inherently is. Although he is reliably great in this episode, you can't help but feel that because he is up against such fierce competition, this relatively low-key performance will probably not be enough to propel him over the edge.

Having never seen "The Mentalist" before, I was a little skeptical that this nomination was a bit bogus. However, I was won over by Baker's undeniable appeal in a show that is more entertaining than I initially gave it credit for. That being said, he does come across as a bit of a lightweight in comparison to some of the other heavy hitters in this group. I suspect that a nomination might be enough of a reward for the category rookie this year.

Jon Hamm is the center of gravity on what is probably the best and most lauded show on TV right now. Although very subtle and understated in his performances, he is magnetic when he is on the screen, and is probably not given enough credit for the control he displays in his portrayal of Don Draper. He has enough screen time to warrant at least a small shot at the win, but his overall impact left me wanting a bit more before I could crown him a front-runner in this race.

I suspect that the guys in the top-three group have the best chance at winning. It is no coincidence that all three are given the most do to, tend to show more range, and definitely make more of an impact. Hugh Laurie starts off low-key in his episode, but by the end of it he perfectly portrays the physical and mental suffering of an ill Dr. House. Many voters may also keep in mind that Hugh Laurie is way overdue for an Emmy win, and this year might be the perfect time to do so.

Bryan Cranston is superb in "Breaking Bad." Coming off a win last year, he could easily repeat with this performance, which is mostly understated, with Walt's pain and rage barely noticeable as it bubbles under the surface. And then we get two key scenes that almost seal the deal. The tender, touching scene where he proudly shows his newborn daughter the stash of cash he has hidden for her future is a real winner. And of course, the climactic scene where he stands, frozen, over Jane choking and spluttering to her death while Jesse sleeps next to her in a drug haze. Amazing stuff.

But then I watched Gabriel Byrne’s episode. Although the episode runtime is under 30 minutes, Byrne is practically in every frame, front and center. It's very much like a play, with a huge spotlight on him, where he gets to play against one of the greats in Dianne Weist. There’s anger, frustration, and then the dynamite scene at the end of the episode where he cries over the deathbed of his estranged father. It really is the perfect Emmy submission, and had me in tears. The question here is whether voters can be bothered voting for a show that appears to be dead and buried, and definitely lacks the buzz of those actors in best drama series contenders "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men" and "House."

I am very tempted to go with Bryan Cranston, but have decided to go out on a tiny limb for Gabriel Byrne.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1.  Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Phoenix")
2.  Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Under My Skin")
3.  Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Gina: Week 4")
4.  Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Mountain King")
5.  Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Lion Sleeps Tonight")
6.  Simon Baker, "The Mentalist" ("Pilot")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY:  For this category, let's start at the bottom of the rankings and work forward. I was incredibly entertained by Simon Baker in his new, highly rated show and am very happy for his nomination. He gives a star-type performance, but it certainly is a quiet one with very little emotion or range (at least in this pilot episode). It even made me want to see the rest of the first season to find out what happens. I don't think he has a prayer of winning with this type of episode, however. 

The episode choice by Michael C. Hall is a strange one since I also didn't think his character had any emotional range (previous selections gave him a much better chance at winning for both "Dexter" and "Six Feet Under"). Jon Hamm portrays one of my favorite characters on television, and his choice of episodes was certainly the best he had available from the second season. Unfortunately, the subdued, extremely private, non-emotional nature of his character doesn't provide much for the Emmy voter to chew over (unless they watch the show regularly and want to reward him as part of a "Mad Men" sweep).

How did "Mad Men" pull off that historical victory as the first basic-cable show to win best drama or comedy series at the Emmys — plus that jawdropper for Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") as best actor? Much of it had to do with AMC, a new player in producing original dramas for TV, being instantly savvy about kudos campaigning.

Last year, after the success of the network's launch of its first-ever longform, "Broken Trail," which rustled up 9.8 million viewers, AMC decided to go prospecting for Emmy gold. Shrewdly, execs hired Murray Weissman, a veteran Oscar campaigner who once had been PR chief of the TV academy, and agreed to spend generously for the necessary investment. Weissman worked closely with AMC general manager Charlie Collier, PR chief Theano Apostolou and marketing gurus Gina Hughes and Alison Hoffman, and together they struck a motherload on awards night: "Broken Trail" won four Emmys, including best miniseries and actor (Robert Duvall).

Encouraged by that result plus positive reviews for its first-ever drama series, "Mad Men," AMC decided to take the plunge again, proceeding aggressively to crank up the ballyhoo for that show plus ratings sleeper "Breaking Bad."

"We made a strong push for all of the industry prizes, including the guild awards," Weissman says. They took out "For Your Consideration" ads in all of the trade publications' special award issues and did frequent Q&A panel discussions with those groups involving the shows' cast, producers and writers.

The effort paid off with victories at the writers, directors and art directors guilds for "Mad Men," and the cast received two nominations from the Screen Actors Guild (best ensemble, best actor).

The "Mad Men" gang held an early press conference with members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and earned two Golden Globe nominations for "Mad Men" that paid off with wins: best drama series and actor (Jon Hamm).

The Emmy campaigns began early in 2008 for both TV series. "Breaking Bad" missed out on the Globes and guild kudos because it wasn't eligible, being launched in January, but hype for Emmys debuted right along with the rookie show. Again, there was a hefty ad push in the trade papers and in the print and online versions of The Envelope, and each TV series took out double-page-spread ads in Emmy Magazine.

"Single-page ads in Emmy Magazine aren't enough," says Weissman. "HBO and other networks go in with spreads, so you should too." And, of course, Q&A screenings were held across Hollywood (one of which, for The Envelope's first Emmy Screening Series, was moderated by yours truly).

Last year AMC had to pay a hefty sum to rent out the TV academy's auditorium for a special event inviting members to meet the creators of "Broken Trail," but thanks to all of the TV critics' huzzahs for "Mad Men," that series was showcased this year as one of the academy-sponsored evenings.

"The DVDs were shipped to TV academy members a little later than I would've liked," Weissman says. "Just around the same time voters are being deluged with other screeners, but the DVDs were beautifully packaged, so maybe the production delay was OK."

Yes — yikes — this means I am shimmying out onto a thin, shaky predix limb, I know, but little Emmy birdies tell me that we pundits have made a big mistake underestimating Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") in the race for best drama actor.

Up until recently, I was with my Envelope comrades resting on usually sturdy oak for James Spader ("Boston Legal"). After all, Spader has never lost — he's gone three for three at Emmys past, including last year, and now he gives his most dynamic performance yet in the sample episode he submitted to Emmy judges. "The Court Supreme" is Spader's performance supreme, granted — he's never been better or given a longer or more dramatic courtroom speech than he does chewing out the whole U.S. Supreme Court. Read more about his Emmy chances and history, CLICK HERE.

But I have a hunch that Emmy voters are just as sick of seeing him win as we pundits are, especially after his ungrateful, snarky acceptance speech last year when he claimed his latest statuette with a shrug, saying, "I still have no idea who votes for these things. Or how you even secure a ballot. Uh . . . but thank you."

The battle over best drama actor is a truly dramatic smackdown involving formidable heavyweights. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House, M.D.") have real shots to win, and maybe even Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") too. Perhaps I'm making a big mistake pooh-poohing the prospects of Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"). After all, he's an esteemed star of artsy indie films, which appeals to those notorious snobs in the TV academy, and he delivers a pretentious-as-heck talkathon with Dianne Wiest in his episode submission, but it doesn't contain the emotional fireworks we spy elsewhere in this race.

Frame for frame, moment for moment, Cranston delivers the most intense, theatrical performance of all contenders as a science teacher who wigs out and becomes a crystal meth chef upon hearing the news that he's dying of cancer. The episode has a huge "ick" factor. Watching this good father, husband and teacher team up with drug dealers who will sell their poison to innocents is cringe-inducing, especially since he does it sweating, scowling and romping around in his underpants in the desert. But he does it to whip up a quick fortune to leave his family before he croaks, so his motive isn't selfish.

Just look at the YouTube video below. It's the first scene of the pilot episode, which is what he submitted to Emmy judges. He's talking into a video camera, telling his family how much he loves them and why he's doing such terrible things. If that doesn't wow Emmy voters, what will?

Cranston's episode has all three elements that are key to impressing judges: It has wide emotional range, impact (not just one big money scene, but a treasure-packed hour of them) and — most important of all — empathy. That's crucial. Portraying a powerfully empathetic character is how Particia Arquette ("Medium") and Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") pulled off recent upsets in the lead-actress races. It's impossible not to feel the terror, dread, sadness and doom Cranston's character experiences as he chooses to step into hell before life's end. Read the full episode description HERE.

But Cranston also has a few other pluses. Even though his character allies himself with a thug, he knocks off worse devils in the pilot to "Breaking Bad." The final fight scene is a heart-stopping shockeroo, and it redeems him a bit too. But the other secret ingredient this episode contains is its theme of substance abuse — one that often triggers big award wins in rehab-happy Hollywood. Candice Bergen won many of her five Emmys for episodes dealing with Murphy Brown's alcoholism. Ditto for Dennis Franz ("NYPD Blue"), even Kirstie Alley ("Cheers"). Just last year Helen Mirren claimed another Emmy as best actress in a TV film as a police detective battling the bottle.

Lastly, Cranston, personally speaking, is endearing and beloved across Hollywood. It's easy to see why in this video chat I had with him and his "Breaking Bad" costar Anna Gunn last weekend on the red carpet outside the Creative Arts Emmys. Watch his reaction when I tell him that he's got a real chance to win. Over the past few weeks I've been hearing more and more positive buzz for his Emmy hopes from inside industry sources, so I'm starting to take his chances seriously. And so should you. With six nominees in this category, a contender, theoretically, may need only 17% of the vote to win.

What I say in this video to Gunn and Cranston is hard to hear because I'm holding the camera several feet away from them while they hold the mike close to themselves. At first I ask them for their reaction to the amazing breakthrough that basic-cable TV shows by AMC ("Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") have had at the Emmys this year. Later in the video I ask Bryan to tell us what his reaction was when he heard that he was nominated for best lead drama actor. Then I inform him that some serious Emmy gurus (like Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly) are picking him to win. Then I ask him if he'll attend this Sunday's ceremony with a prepared acceptance speech — just in case he does win.

Hey, I can't let Ausiello be the only guru to claim this longshot among the pundits in our Emmy pool, can I? (See all predix HERE.) So now I'm (nervously) stepping off of the James Spader bandwagon to pick Cranston for the win too. Below are my revised racetrack odds for this category. To see the full list of racetrack odds, CLICK HERE

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1

(AMC, L.A. Times)

Gold Derby recruited two teams of experts to predict who'll win the Primetime Emmy Awards on Sept. 21 and discovered surprising consensus. Heavy favorites: "Mad Men" for best drama series, last year's champ "30 Rock" to repeat as best comedy, "John Adams" as best miniseries and "Damages" star Glenn Close as best drama actress.

But the two teams differ drastically in a few races and that's probably because of how I organized the teams. Team TV Journos comprises notable writers who cover the TV beat and pay close attention to the Emmys. Team The Envelope is composed largely of award nuts like me who pay special attention to past voting patterns and the sample episodes submitted to Emmy judges by the nominees.

It's interesting to note that one member of Team TV Journos really does too — that's John Kubicek, who once won a Gold Derby amateur prediction Emmy contest when he was known as poster "Tommy Castro" in our forums, but now I am banishing him (sorry, John!) to the journo team since he's a writer for BuddyTV.com. While Tommy Castro still posts in our message boards, the only forum posters I'm including on Team The Envelope are our Emmy-savvy moderators. Call it a perk of leadership.

TEAM TV JOURNOS: Michael Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Aaron Barnhart (Kansas City Star), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Robert Bianco (USA Today), Hal Boedeker (Orlando Sentinel), Melissa Grego (Broadcasting and Cable), Richard Huff (New York Daily News), John Kubicek (BuddyTV), Lisa de Moraes (Washington Post), Kristin Dos Santos (E! Online — CLICK HERE for expanded Emmy predix), Maggie Furlong (AOL Television), Michele Greppi (TV Week), Matt Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Maureen Ryan (Chicago Tribune), Michael Starr (New York Post), David Zurawik (Baltimore Sun).

TEAM THE ENVELOPE: Chris "Boomer" Beachum (Gold Derby forums), Elena Howe (The Envelope), Joseph A. Kapsch (Latimes Entertainment), Robert Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net, Gold Derby forums), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, TheEnvelope), Andrew Pickett (Gold Derby forums)

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Boston Legal"
"Damages" — Beachum
"Dexter" — Huff
"House"
"Lost" — Barnhart, Dos Santos, Greppi
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, Furlong, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, ZurawikHowe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Boedeker, Pickett
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Furlong, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
"Two and a Half Men" — Greppi

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" — Huff
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" — Ausiello, O'Neil
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" — Dos Santos, Mitovich, Howe, Kapsch
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" — Berman, Furlong, Roush, Starr, Zurawik
Hugh Laurie, "House" — Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, Grego, Greppi, Richmond, Ryan
James Spader, "Boston Legal" —de Moraes, Kubicek, Beachum, Licuria, Pickett
(NOTE: Tom O'Neil switched his vote from Spader to Cranson on Sept. 19.)

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, "Damages" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" — Dos Santos,
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" — Huff, Kubicek, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Greppi, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Steve Carell, "The Office" — Barnhart, Grego, Ryan, Beachum
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" — Furlong
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" — Ausiello, Bianco, Grego, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Kapsch, Pickett
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" — de Moraes, O'Neil
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" — Berman, Furlong, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Roush, Starr, Zurawik, Howe, Licuria
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" — Boedeker, Beachum
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" — Barnhart, Dos Santos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES
Ted Danson, "Damages" — Ausiello, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Furlong, Greppi, Richmond, Roush, Ryan
Michael Emerson, "Lost" — Dos Santos, Kubicek, Howe
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages" — Mitovich, Licuria
William Shatner, "Boston Legal" — Barnhart, Grego, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
John Slattery, "Mad Men" — Huff, Zurawik

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal" — Richmond, Licuria, Pickett
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy" — Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment" — Berman, Greppi, Huff, Ryan, Zurawik, Howe
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Grego, Mitovich, Roush, Beachum, Kapsch, O'Neil

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage" — Huff
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Howe
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Boedeker, de Moraes, Grego, ZurawikBeachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Rainn Wilson, "The Office" — Berman, Mitovich, Richmond

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies" — Bianco, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kubicek, Starr
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live" — Ausiello, Barnhart, de Moraes, Huff, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who? — Grego, Mitovich
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" — Greppi
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty" — Berman, Boedeker, Kapsch

BEST REALITY HOST
Tom Bergeron, 'Dancing With The Stars' — Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Greppi, Roush, Zurawik
Heidi Klum, 'Project Runway' — Grego, Furlong, Ryan, Beachum
Howie Mandel, 'Deal Or No Deal' — Ausiello, Richmond
Jeff Probst, 'Survivor' — Huff, Mitovich, Licuria
Ryan Seacrest, 'American Idol' — Barnhart, Kubicek, Dos Santos, Starr, Howe, Kapsch, Pickett

BEST REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Bianco, Berman, Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Starr, Beachum, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett
"American Idol" — Dos Santos, Grego, Zurawik, Howe, Kapsch
"Dancing with the Stars" — Richmond
"Project Runway" — Furlong, Greppi, Ryan
"Top Chef"

BEST VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES
"The Colbert Report"
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" — Ausiello, Barnhart, Berman, Bianco, Boedeker, de Moraes, Dos Santos, Furlong, Grego, Greppi, Kubicek, Mitovich, Richmond, Roush, Ryan, Starr, Zurawik, Beachum, Howe, Kapsch, O'Neil, Pickett
"Late Show With David Letterman" — Huff
"Real Time With Bill Maher"
"Saturday Night Live" — Licuria

BEST MADE-FOR-TV MOVIE
"Bernard and Doris" — Greppi
"Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale" — Ausiello, Berman, Furlong, Starr, Beachum, Kapsch
"The Memory Keeper's Daughter"
"A Raisin in the Sun" — Barnhart, Bianco, Dos Santos, Grego, Richmond, Ryan, Zurawik, Pickett
"Recount" — Boedeker, de Moraes, Huff, Kubicek, Mitovich, Roush, Howe, Licura, O'Neil

OK, you've seen who all of the experts predict will win the Emmys (CLICK HERE), including me, but you haven't yet seen my careful breakdown of all contenders in each top category. Below: Gold Derby's racetrack odds. Please note: they're issued for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for gambling. Missing are the two reality races, but soon I'll add those odds too. Right now I haven't finished watching all of the episodes each nominee submitted to Emmy judges as samples of their best work.

My evaluations rely heavily on episode submissions. For example, note that I think "Saturday Night Live" is a real threat to "The Daily Show," which has won best variety series five years in a row. Granted, "SNL" hasn't won since 1993 and I still put "Daily Show" out front, but "SNL" submitted the same blockbuster episode that's likely to pay off with a win for Amy Poehler as best supporting actress: Tina Fey's return as host. Jon Stewart's episode is fantastic too — it's 20 minutes of ranting against the White House (of course) followed by a brief, fun chat with Judd Apatow.

But I don't think, like many of my peers, that Tina Fey will win best comedy actress. Three of her opponents submitted episodes that involved some element of split personality and that usually pays off with a victory. (Never again wonder how Lindsay Wagner won best drama actress for "The Bionic Woman" in 1977 — that's when she suddenly discovered her evil twin, remember?) In this year's derby, America Ferrera goes bonkers when sprayed with a poisoned perfume, Christina Applegate goes psycho when she hears the song "We've Got the Beat" on the radio and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, pumped up on testosterone, threatens to kick the "sorry, tanned, bleach-blonde, Botoxed" butts of rival school moms. The reason I give the best odds to Ferrera is because she stars in a one-hour program. The longest shows usually win — as Ferrera proved last year.

To see a full list of all episode submissions, CLICK HERE. Click through the subsequent pages of that forum to read the predix of our posters based upon what they think of those episodes. If you're curious to see what episodes were entered at past Emmy derbies, CLICK HERE. Remember: actors submit one sample episode; ditto for contenders for best variety and reality series. Nominees for best comedy and drama submit six that are paired off into three groupings that are randomly submitted to voters. Actors vote on actors, writers on writers, everybody gets to vote in the program categories. Roughly 250 to 300 voters volunteer to judge submissions in the races for best comedy and drama series. The typical acting category has about 50 to 75 judges.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Mad Men" - 5/4
"Damages" - 7/5
"Lost" - 8/1
"House" - 9/1
"Dexter" - 10/1
"Boston Legal" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" - 1/3
"The Office" - 8/5
"Entourage" - 20/1
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" - 30/1
"Two and a Half Men" - 40/1

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" - 2/1
James Spader, "Boston Legal" - 11/5
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" - 13/5
Hugh Laurie, "House" - 8/1
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" - 8/1
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" - 35/1
(NOTE: I changed this prediction from James Spader to Bryan Cranston on Sept. 19.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Damages" - 2/1
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: S.V.U." - 3/1
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters" - 7/2
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace" - 4/1
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" - 9/2

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" - Even
Steve Carell, "The Office" - 5/2
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies" - 7/2
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" - 6/1
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men" - 50/1

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty" - 2/1
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?" - 7/3
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine" - 5/2
Tina Fey, "30 Rock" - 3/1
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" - 50/1

BEST MINISERIES
"John Adams" - 1/2
"Cranford" - 7/5
"Tin Man" - 30/1
"The Andromeda Strain" - 40/1

The biggest dramas at the Emmys this year are in the races for drama series and lead actor. Chris "Boomer" Beachum and I cover the series race in a separate podcast chat here at Gold Derby, but now we want elaborate on the post below (click HERE) by discussing this James Spader biz in depth. Boomer and I agree that the undefeated star of "Boston Legal" is out front to win his fourth Emmy but disagree over who's in second place. Boomer says Hugh Laurie ("House"). I say . . . naw, I ain't gonna tell ya. Better that you tune in for the full, fun chat. CLICK HERE to Download the MP3 File and Listen. (Note: You may need to hold down your computer's control key while clicking.)

Expect to hear a lot of groans this Sunday night when "Boston Legal" star James Spader — who's gone undefeated at the Emmys in the past — wins best drama actor for a fourth time.

Yes, brace yourself for one of those bizarre Emmy moments to repeat again. I and Gold Derby 's two other Emmy experts — our forum moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum — all predict Spader will pull off another jaw-dropper. Rob's and Boomer's expanded predix, rankings and analysis are below, but, first, let me offer my own explanation.

Remember how Emmy voting works: Nominees pick a sample episode of their best work and submit it to about 50 to 70 judges, all fellow actors, who watch the DVD screeners at home and rank the contenders.

Spader keeps winning because "Boston Legal" producer David E. Kelley — a whiz at snagging Emmys and a former lawyer in real life — usually gives Spader one of those big, showboating courtroom speeches at the end of his Emmy episode that wins over judge and jury. Including Emmy judges.

This year Spader gives his hottest firebrand speech ever. He gets to argue a case before the U.S. Supreme Court and he uses the occasion to scorch justices for being lackeys of the conservative White House, at one point chastising Clarence Thomas for not paying attention to him as he rants: "Put down that magazine!"

"Who are you people?" Spader roars. "You've transformed this court from being a governmental branch devoted to civil rights and liberties into protector of discrimination, guardian of government, a slave to monied interests and big business and today, hallelujah, you seek to slay a mentally disabled man!"

How can Hollywood lefties resist voting for that?

If Spader actually manages to lose, it's hard to say who'll beat him. All competing episode submissions are superb and, with six nominees in this race, all a contender needs to win, theoretically, is 17% of the vote.

Both Boomer and Rob believe that Hugh Laurie is in second place and that's possible. In the "House's Head" episode of "House" he gives a big flashy turn as he battles temporary amnesia while struggling to recall which fellow passenger he diagnosed with a life-threatening medical problem just prior to a bus crash. I think this episode has a drawback, though. Normally, House is a cranky character — in an appealing way. Here he's downright nasty, a bully. Some voters inevitably will be turned off.

Personally, I would put Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") in second place. His Emmy episode, "The Wheel," isn't, well, as ham-fisted or emotionally flashy as Hugh Laurie's. In fact, Hamm is rather laid back through most of it, but he gets a big crying scene — voters are often suckers for that.

In "The Wheel," hotsy-totsy advertising exec Don Draper (Hamm) suddenly redeems himself for being a sly alley cat when we see him give a slide show to Kodak while advising the company on what to call its new, round slide projector. He makes his pitch while showing them slides of himself with wife and kids during happier days years ago. Seeing these images again makes Draper cry in the dark while he urges the execs to change the name of "The Wheel" to something else that "takes us to a place where we ache to go," he says, tearing up, voice cracking as he shows off old, happy photos of him and his wife. "It's not called 'the wheel.' It's called 'the carousel.' It lets us travel the way a child travels, around and around and back home again — to a place where we know we are loved."

A similar parallel can be drawn to Michael C. Hall's performance — which is also quite passive except for a big grand finale. In Hall's case, the emotional contrast is even more interesting. What makes his acting so seductive is its smoldering volcanic fire. Serial killers don't like to draw attention to themselves so he's always holding back, drawing us near. Very powerful, especially at the end of this "Dexter" episode, "There's Something About Harry," in which he discovers that his father committed suicide when he learned that his son was a murderer. Dexter screams, "I killed my father!" It's the episode where Dexter keeps his nemesis, James Doakes, locked up in a cage out in the Everglades and it's so taut and gripping that it could definitely bring Hall the Emmy.

But Hall not only needs to get by Spader, Laurie and Hamm, but Bryan Cranston and Gabriel Byrne too. I agree with Rob and Boomer that Byrne's turn is just too talky and pretentious. He's out. But Cranston really does have hope here. I think Boomer makes a big mistake ranking him last. In the pilot episode of "Breaking Bad," Cranston is riveting as a science teacher who resorts to making crystal meth to earn a quick fortune when he learns that he's dying of cancer. Cranston has a real chance to win too. Only Byrne is out of this race, methinks.

But let's check in with what Rob and Boomer think. First, Rob.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S RANKING
1. James Spader, "Boston Legal" ("The Court Surpreme")
2. Hugh Laurie, "House M.D." ("House's Head")
3. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Pilot")
4. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("There's Something About Harry")
5. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Wheel")
6. Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment" ("Paul and Gina: Week 4")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The actors I have in third to sixth place should really all be tied for third place. I can't separate them really — they're all that good — and are all in with a shot in this years number-one killer category.

Gabriel Byrne is touching and vulnerable in an episode where the camera is almost entirely focused on him. Bryan Cranston OWNS this character in the pilot of "Breaking Bad," and is so perfect that he is the spoiler. Michael C. Hall is really captivating in his episode, and has lots of buzz to go with it. So does Jon Hamm, the Golden Globe winner from earlier this year, who has the best scene of the category in the "Carousel" presentation towards the end of his episode. Hugh Laurie is wonderful in "House's Head," and everybody knows that he is way overdue for some Emmy recognition.

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE!

For many years our forum posters have not been content just dishing (sometimes dissing) who wins various Hollywood awards. They absolutely insist upon bestowing their own.

"Drum roll, please!" cries our forums moderator Chris "Boomer" Beachum, who organized and oversaw the nominations and awards process. "Here are the official winners for 2008!"

No surprise that "30 Rock" really rocked, sweeping the races for best comedy series, actor (Alec Baldwin) and actress (Tina Fey). Our posters go ga-ga for the show — and should. It's that great and deserving of these laurels. But there was a (nice) shockeroo in the race for best drama actor. As "Dexter's" sly serial killer, Michael C. Hall slayed media darling Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House"). Too bad James Spader ("Boston Legal") wasn't nominated, eh?

The fact that "Mad Men" also lost the kudo for best drama series is a jolt. Hmmm … makes ya wonder: Could "Lost" find its way back home at the Emmys too — where it won this program prize in 2005?

To see the full list of nominees plus the reax of our forum posters, CLICK HERE! Many thanks to our other two forum moderators for working with Beachum to organize the voting process: Robert "Rob L" Licuria and Andrew Pickett.

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"30 Rock" (NBC)

BEST COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon on "30 Rock"

BEST COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy on "30 Rock"

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kristin Chenoweth as Olive Snook on "Pushing Daisies"

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Neil Patrick Harris as Barney Stinson on "How I Met Your Mother"

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Amy Ryan as Holly on "The Office"

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Will Arnett as Devon Banks on "30 Rock"

BEST COMEDY EPISODE OF THE YEAR
"Pushing Daisies" for "Pie-Lette"
directed by Barry Sonnenfeld; written by Bryan Fuller

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Lost" (ABC)

BEST DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
Glenn Close as Patty Hewes on "Damages"

BEST DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan on "Dexter"

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Chandra Wilson as Dr. Miranda Bailey on "Grey's Anatomy"

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Emerson as Ben Linus on "Lost"

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Nixon as Janis Donovan on "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
Robert Morse as Bertram Cooper on "Mad Men"

BEST DRAMA EPISODE OF THE YEAR
"Lost" for "The Constant" — directed by Jack Bender; written by Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof

BEST TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES
"John Adams" (HBO)

CLICK HERE TO SEE MORE WINNERS!

• New York magazine's Vulture column highlights the recent appearance by "Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner and Emmy-nominated stars Jon Hamm and John Slattery on PBS TV's "The Charlie Rose Show. " As per the vultures: "If you can get past Rose's traditional inability to ask interesting follow-ups, you'll be treated to hints to what aspects of Don Draper's past we'll soon learn about (19:00), what 1963 books symbolize the social change 'Mad Men's' characters are about to go through (8:00), and how Weiner viewed the life of the women in the office as a combination of 'Sex and the Single Girl' and 'The Feminine Mystique' (13:00)."

• Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall are to be feted by the Visual Effects Society at their seventh annual awardsfest Feb. 21. The dynamic producing duo, whose credits include such special effects laden movies as the "Indiana Jones" series and "E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial," are hard at work on the upcoming award derby entry "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett. Between them, the pair have produced six best picture Oscar nominees but have yet to win the big prize.

• As part of the Venice Film Festival, Italian fashion conglomerate Gucci will honor an artist who has contributed to a film as a director, actor, writer, costume or set designer. The nominees are: Isaac Julien for "Derek," his tribute to the late filmmaker Derek Jarman; visual artist Steve McQueen for his directing debut, "Hunger," a stark film about IRA leader Bobby Sands which won the Camera d'Or at Cannes; last year's winner Julian Schnabel for the documentary "Lou Reed's Berlin;" and Beastie Boys Adam Yauch for the documentary "Gunnin' for That No. 1 Spot." Deciding the winner to be announced at a Sept. 1 gala is a jury comprised of fest director Marco Mueller, American artist Jeff Koons, Yves Saint Laurent creative director Stefano Pilati, and Vogue Italia editor in chief Franca Sozzani.

(Photo: AMC)

Yesterday the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. presented $759,865 in financial grants to charities at its annual luncheon welcoming the installation of new officers. Announcing the grants at the Beverly Hills Hotel were celebs such as Aaron Eckhart and Jon Hamm. Acceptance remarks on behalf of the grants were made by Chris "Ludacris" Bridges (Film Independent Inc.), Rosario Dawson (IFP), Dana Delany (UCLA), Dakota Fanning (California State Summer School Arts Foundation), Chris Messina (Sundance Institute), Elizabeth Pena (National Assn. of Latino Independent Producers) and Rosie Perez (Inner-City Arts).

Re-elected President Jorge Camara introduced the re-elected officers Mike Goodridge, vice president; Serge Rakhlin, executive secretary; and Meher Tatna, treasurer. The new Board of Directors is comprised of Mahfouz Doss (re-elected Chairman), Erkki Kanto, Lilly Lui, Paz Mata, Frances Schoenberger, and Armando Gallo (alternate).

"Despite last January's cancellation of the Annual Golden Globe Awards due to the Writers Guild strike that curtailed the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's income, we're delighted to honor our ongoing commitment to support entertainment industry-related film school and non-profit organizations," said Jorge Camara, HFPA President.